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#27 Feb 10 2016 at 5:52 PM Rating: Default
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Feel wrote:
What no comments on the wicked witch of the west? lol love watching that evil old hag meltdown.
If you're referring to Hillary, she's still in the lead.
#28 Feb 10 2016 at 6:16 PM Rating: Decent
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Jophiel wrote:
It's not a "debate trick" that Rubio couldn't think on his feet and break loose from his talking points. The first time maybe is a "gotcha" -- the next two unforced errors are just sloppy amateurish mistakes. Christie didn't make Rubio keep repeating the same lines verbatim; he just pointed it out.


Well, yeah. He kinda did. All candidates have memorized responses to different questions or challenges. It's part of the debate prep, and generally makes the difference between a politician who looks polished and one who's standing at the podium stammering "uh... Ah..." while trying to form the words for an answer. This is normally not an issue because usually the same question or challenge does not come up more than once or twice in a debate. Someone asks a question or call you out on something, you give your prepared answer, and the debate moves on. Usually, what you're trying to do in a debate is cover as much ground as possible so as to find something that the other guy hasn't prepped on, so you can make him do the "um... ah..." thing.

What Christie did is ask the same question 5 times (technically, made the same allegation that Rubio isn't a good choice because he is just a first term Senator, and Obama was, and look how that worked out). Rubio's answer was to that specific allegation. What he didn't catch, which is totally on him, is that Christie would repeat the same allegation several times, to which Rubio gave the same response, not realizing that this was the "trick" Christie was playing.

What Rubio should have done on repetition 3, when Christie made the point that Rubio was repeating the same canned response, was that he is giving the same response because Christie keeps repeating the same false allegation. Perhaps follow it up with speculation as to why Christie might do this. Maybe he didn't hear or understand the response the first 2 times, but I'll give it to you again, and if you ask the same question again, well... What do we say about people who keep doing the same thing and expecting different results? This points the audience's attention at Christie repeating the same question, and away from Rubio repeating the same answer, and at that point forward, if Christie does it again, you just deflect by pointing out that *he's* "doing it again".

His inexperience was not realizing what Christie was doing and turning it around. That's bad on him. But that does not change the fact that what Christie did was basically single Rubio out for doing something that every other candidate does. They all have canned statements that they make. Over and over. These are phrases and paragraphs that they put into their stump speeches. They modify these over time based on crowd response. It's part of polishing your message. Everyone does it. Any reporter could play a loop of stump speeches and hang this on any candidate in the race if they wanted to.

But yes, perception is reality, and that's what Rubio got wrong. Again, doesn't change that Christie was playing a bit dirty with that one, and frankly he didn't help himself. He just hurt Rubio and further muddled the race.

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Rubio was supposed to use the momentum from this state to push to win S. Carolina with the mainstream GOP backing him. He flubbed that and faceplanted, pretty much ruining his immediate chances. People were cautious about backing him before and no one is going to rush to do it now.


Yup. This was Christie pulling another Sandy. Doing something that he thought was good for him, but ultimately is bad for the party. Eh... Again though, this is probably a lesson that Rubio needs to learn. Then again, it's quite possible that had Christie done this to anyone in the field, they might have fallen for it too. Hard to say. Bush? Maybe not. Cruz? Almost certainly. That man's a walking bumper sticker. Trump? Probably not, since he mostly just fires from the hip anyway. Carson? Absolutely. Kasich? Probably. Point being that this was an attack that likely would have worked on anyone it's used on. Once. And Christie chose to use it at the moment that would most result in further stretching out the process of the GOP support flowing to a mainstream candidate, and probably increasing significantly the odds that Trump becomes the nominee.

And along the way, he didn't help himself at all. So... dumb move.

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The bigger concern is Trump. New Hampshire was supposed to show him to be a paper tiger when his real support was far under his polling support. Instead, he's cleaning everyone's clocks at the polls.


Eh. It's New Hampshire though. Yes, I know that conventionally it's pretty accurate at determining eventual nominees, but that's when the field consists of folks all within some range of "mainstream". I suspect that there's a fair amount of nutty independent voters there that will leap to someone outside that mainstream if it comes along. They just don't normally get the chance to do that. I don't think the same works in SC, or NV, or most of the states coming up. At least, I hope to god not.

Well see though. What is that old saying/curse? "May you live in interesting times".
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#29 Feb 10 2016 at 7:13 PM Rating: Excellent
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That's a pretty hilarious amount of rationalization. Here's why it hurt Rubio so much: because the persistent question about his candidacy was whether he was ready yet and whether he had anything to offer besides being telegenic. That's why major donors were slow to collect around him until he started showing some steam after Iowa. Rubio was their worst fears that night, an obvious empty suit who couldn't even get off his rehearsed lines when people were laughing at him for repeating them. Because those talking points were literally all he had.

Rubio defended his performance for the days leading up to the primary saying that he would do it all over again and would keep saying it, etc. After being humiliated last night he gave a completely disingenuous apology that he had a single bad debate night and he's fix it. It wasn't just one debate night, it was that that night put into focus what was already being talked about -- Rubio is an empty suit.
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Eh. It's New Hampshire though

Yeah, the state that picks the "thoughtful" choice after Iowa picks the "emotional" choice. McCain vs Huckabee, Romney vs Santorum, apparently Trump vs Cruz.

Edited, Feb 10th 2016 7:14pm by Jophiel
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#30 Feb 11 2016 at 2:57 AM Rating: Decent
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gbaji, having watched it, the point was it wasn't about the factual accuracy / quality of Rubio's answer to Christie's attack - the Republican debate is a moronic poo-flinging contest from start to finish, no one could possibly gain any material insight from it and there's no lucid or informed discussion because it's a beauty pageant not a debate about issues. It's all show, soundbites, and a bunch of gorilla-like men puffing up their chests and making out *they're* the big man to keep the tribe safe. Rubio's problem is that Christie attacked him, repeatedly, and he wasn't able to respond and counter-attack effectively but instead got stuck like a broken record player. The people watching, desperate to understand who the new leader of the pack is, sensed that Christie is the big man. That's all that matters.
#31 Feb 11 2016 at 7:56 AM Rating: Excellent
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Rubio's campaign manager is talking about it coming down to a brokered convention. That's not the talk of a campaign on the rise. That's, like, Ron Paul campaign style nonsense.
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#32 Feb 11 2016 at 8:41 AM Rating: Good
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gbaji wrote:
Again, doesn't change that Christie was playing a bit dirty with that one, and frankly he didn't help himself.
Christie is out, and he took a bite out of someone who is proving to be completely unqualified ... which isn't saying much considering the whole field.
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#33 Feb 11 2016 at 9:00 AM Rating: Excellent
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I love how Gbaji goes on at length about Christie pointing out Rubio's very real flaws in a debate is "dirty" but Cruz actively lying about Carson's campaign is just business as usual.
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#34 Feb 11 2016 at 11:45 AM Rating: Good
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Can we refer to Eduardo Rafael Cruz by his God given name?
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#35 Feb 11 2016 at 11:49 AM Rating: Excellent
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I dunno. I keep waiting for all the crazy-pants conspiracy postings about Eduardo RAFAEL Cruz but I must be missing them.

I also like Rubio's attempt to change that narrative that Obama isn't an inexperienced incompetent out of his depth but actually a genius socialist supervillian who orchestrated everything to destroy America. I get WHY he's trying to do it -- because Rubio has zero record* and fears the comparison to Obama -- but it's funny to see the dissonance from the Right.

*Well, he did have his singular congressional accomplishment with the Gang of Eight which then failed and Rubio has had to completely turn away from. Leading to the hilarious cover story by people like Limbaugh that Rubio isn't actually in support of immigration reform but was "tricked" by Chuck Schumer. Because that's supposed to make him look better.

Edited, Feb 11th 2016 11:55am by Jophiel
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#36 Feb 11 2016 at 12:19 PM Rating: Good
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I like the part where he says "he's not stupid, he's secretly trying to change America."

I mean damn dude, did you crack the code by finding an old Obama "Change we can believe in" bumper sticker on the back of the Constitution. Great detective work there, gumshoe.

Edited, Feb 11th 2016 1:20pm by Timelordwho
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#37 Feb 11 2016 at 12:45 PM Rating: Good
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Cruz was tricked by an insurance salesman, Rubio by a fellow political ally, and Trump by his hairstylist Megyn Kelly and these are the people that are going to project strength to the rest of the world. I know I feel much safer knowing that the only thing between foreign spies and nuclear launch codes is a distraction with a set of dangling keys.
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#38 Feb 11 2016 at 5:08 PM Rating: Good
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Timelordwho wrote:
I like the part where he says "he's not stupid, he's secretly trying to change America."



"He's trying to make America like the rest of the world." he says. You mean America might stop being ***-backwards if Obama had his way? For ***** sake give this man a third term. (Actually, no. I'd be happy to see a new president who won't try to appease the Republicans so much, because fuck them.)
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#39 Feb 11 2016 at 7:55 PM Rating: Decent
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Jophiel wrote:
Rubio was their worst fears that night, an obvious empty suit who couldn't even get off his rehearsed lines when people were laughing at him for repeating them. Because those talking points were literally all he had.


If you've once watched Rubio give an interview, you know that's not true. The problem is that he failed to realize that Christie was trying to make him look like that was all he had. Rubio continued to repeat the same talking point because in his mind, it was a great talking point, and of course he can go off script and talk about things if he wants, but this is a debate and debates are generally won by the guy with the most polished language and *not* by the guy speaking off the top of his head.

His approach works except in the case where someone else decides to make the polished language itself an issue. Which is what Christie did. And he also failed to realize that many people watching the debate haven't seen him openly discuss issues in interviews, and thus don't know that he can do that when needed. And he failed to realize that the many times more people who have never seen him give an interview, and didn't watch the debate either, would see the news shows running just the clips of him saying the same prepared line over and over and making it sure to their audience that this was "bad".

Should he have realized this? Maybe. But it hardly makes him an empty suit. And I'll point out again that the same trick used on nearly any of the other candidates very likely would have resulted in the same thing.

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Rubio defended his performance for the days leading up to the primary saying that he would do it all over again and would keep saying it, etc.


Again, because his mistake was in thinking it was about the content of his message, and not purely about the way he was delivering it. And frankly, only about the way he delivered it because someone made a point to highlight it, as though his method is any different than every other candidate.

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After being humiliated last night he gave a completely disingenuous apology that he had a single bad debate night and he's fix it. It wasn't just one debate night, it was that that night put into focus what was already being talked about -- Rubio is an empty suit.


Except no was was saying that about Rubio except Christie. And he said it solely in the days leading up to the debate to lay the groundwork so he could use that to target Rubio with it in the debate. And he did that, not because Rubio is more guilty of this than anyone else (that prize would go to Ted Cruz BTW), but because Rubio was the candidate poised to take the "mainstream GOP" position, which is the only one Christie could remotely have a shot for. Cruz and Trump are both running for completely different demographics and garnering support elsewhere. Everyone else in the race (well, except maybe Carson) are fighting for the mainstream GOP support structure.

That's why Christie chose to level this at Rubio. If Bush had been the top mainstream candidate, he would have lead up to the debate with days of talking about Bush using mindless talking points, and then gone after him the same way in the debate. If Kasich had been at the top, he would have been targeted instead.

What's why it was a debate trick. It's one that works against anyone unless they figure out that someone's pulling said trick on them and manage to get out of it. It says nothing about Rubio's actual ability to speak to these issues outside of polished talking points, nor does it remotely make him an "empty suit". It does say that he does not have the same experience at national televised debates as others. Which... Um... Is true. You get that this is literally the only forum in which that sort of tactic works, right? Only presidential debates (or primary debates) are so broadly televised, and broadly covered by the media that you can make that trick work. So yes, you can say this is a lack of experience on Rubio's part. But not in policy but debating itself.

Which is a problem, but it's a problem I'm more comfortable with having in a president than a host of others. Again, it's about perception and not reality. Which absolutely affects elections, but doesn't necessarily tell us anything about who would actually be a better president.

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Eh. It's New Hampshire though

Yeah, the state that picks the "thoughtful" choice after Iowa picks the "emotional" choice. McCain vs Huckabee, Romney vs Santorum, apparently Trump vs Cruz.


And that explains Trump and Sanders how, exactly? Clearly, there's something else going on with the decision process in NH.

Edited, Feb 11th 2016 5:57pm by gbaji
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#40 Feb 11 2016 at 8:29 PM Rating: Good
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gbaji wrote:
The problem is that he failed to realize that Christie was trying to make him look like that was all he had.
An excellent atribute for a President of the United States, yes?
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#41 Feb 11 2016 at 8:50 PM Rating: Excellent
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Except no was was saying that about Rubio except Christie

News from anywhere, etc.
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And that explains Trump and Sanders how, exactly?

Sanders is a very popular, long term, local politician from a neighboring small state. His NH situation isn't at all like Trump's and you can't handwave away Trump's victory by pointing at Sanders.
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#42 Feb 12 2016 at 9:17 AM Rating: Good
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gbaji wrote:
Except no was was saying that about Rubio except Christie
Christie's been busy since 2010's Florida senate run then.
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#43 Feb 12 2016 at 6:18 PM Rating: Decent
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Jophiel wrote:
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Except no was was saying that about Rubio except Christie

News from anywhere, etc.


By all means, if you can find other candidates making this allegation about Rubio prior to the last debate, go ahead and post a link or something.

This was a perception of Rubio created out of whole cloth by Christie. He set it up by talking about Rubio repeating talking points in the days leading up to the debate, and then made a point of repeating the same allegation at Rubio 5 times in that debate so as to get Rubio to repeat the same answer 5 times, thus "proving" his earlier claims. Again, Rubio should have caught on and found a way out of it, but it was absolutely a cheap trick by Christie nonetheless. A trick that likely would have worked and been just as "valid" a claim against any other candidate. Christie just choose to target it at Rubio.

The only negative this actually says about Rubio is that he's not as quick to detect and deflect cheap debating tricks. Something he should fix, definitely, but the allegation itself just doesn't stand up. I'd argue that of the candidates in the race right now, Rubio is the second best at speaking extemporaneously about his positions on issues. Trump being first, but that's not necessarily a good thing, given that he manages to put his own foot in his mouth half the time doing it. The king of memorized rhetoric is actually Ted Cruz (seriously, go watch a clip of him speaking pretty much anywhere, and even in interviews. It's sad). Kasich pretty much has one or two bits he turns to in every discussion I've seen him in as well. Of the mainstream candidates, Bush is probably the next best to Rubio in terms of just being able to sit down in an interview setting and talk about things without just parroting rhetoric. His problem though is that he doesn't know how to translate this into good sounding sound bites when giving a speech, much less in a debate. Which has hurt him up to now.

It is what it is. And public perception often has nothing to do with reality. I would just hope that in a discussion forum like this, we can at least make an attempt to discuss how things really are, and not just how the masses react to it. Cause we get that all the time on our TVs, right?

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And that explains Trump and Sanders how, exactly?

Sanders is a very popular, long term, local politician from a neighboring small state. His NH situation isn't at all like Trump's and you can't handwave away Trump's victory by pointing at Sanders.


You said that NH voters normally pick the most reasonable candidate (in contrast to Iowa). But neither Trump nor Sanders are representative of a reasonable choice. They represent an angry choice by people who want to tip over the apple cart. So neither is typical of past NH selections, and thus can't necessarily be seen as having the same weight. Again though, perception often trumps reality, and since so many people think the NH selection represents a strong/reasonable choice based on past history, they assume it does now, and this will actually influence their choices going forward.

Which is just one more reason primary season is nutty as heck. The most absurd things can have a massive impact on the results sometimes. Remember Dean's scream? Something that was the result of a different audio level for those in the room versus those watching on TV basically sunk his campaign. That was the extent of his mistake. Crazy.
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#44 Feb 12 2016 at 6:32 PM Rating: Decent
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lolgaxe wrote:
gbaji wrote:
Except no was was saying that about Rubio except Christie
Christie's been busy since 2010's Florida senate run then.


Huh? Are you attempting to claim that Rubio has been viewed in the past as a candidate who relies too much on memorized sound bites? What's funny is that Rubio is actually viewed the exact opposite. One of the reasons for his fast rise is that he's someone who can just sit and speak about an issue without sounding like he's rattling off a memorized bit. It's one of the things I think I may have mentioned sometime last year as one of my concerns about his run. He has been seen as a guy who understands the issues well, but criticized for *not* being very polished in his speaking. He always came off as an earnest young guy but not yet ready for the big time, not because he doesn't get the issues and have good positions, but because he doesn't come off as professional enough.

One of the reasons I started thinking Rubio had a shot this time, was being pleasantly surprised that when he came into the first couple debates he did appear much more polished and more "presidential", if you will. Which is why the allegations Christie leveled at him were so strange initially. And it's possible that's why Rubio didn't catch on to what Christie was doing until too late. Rubio *knows* that he has no problem understanding the issues and being able to speak about them off the cuff, but he does have a problem with being a bit too conversational, and speaking in ways that assume the audience (usually an interviewer) understands the issue and language he's using to describe it. He had a problem with mass appeal because he wasn't speaking the language that audiences find appealing. Which, in case you are confused, is the very kinds of quickly rattled off memorized sound bites that make a candidate look like he's more knowledgeable about a topic than his opponent in a debate setting.

This kind of language is almost certainly what Rubio's team had to coach him into using. So yeah. He didn't expect to be attacked for doing it as he was. We can certainly talk about how he should have picked up on the trap Christie set. But let's not pretend that he actually does have a problem with being able to speak without using memorized language. Because that's actually his strong suit. The problem is that this is not actually what audiences want their candidates to do, nor what makes them walk away from viewing a debate with a positive impression of a candidate. A bit of a catch-22, isn't it?
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#45 Feb 12 2016 at 6:38 PM Rating: Decent
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Oh. But on the broader subject. In keeping with the craziness of this primary so far, I've decided to double down on crazy and pick "Paul Ryan" as the one who will be inaugurated as president next January. Yes, there is a possible path to this that doesn't require anyone dying or anything. So that's where I'm going. Cause... why not?
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#46 Feb 12 2016 at 6:51 PM Rating: Excellent
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gbaji wrote:
By all means, if you can find other candidates making this allegation about Rubio prior to the last debate, go ahead and post a link or something.

You should read or something. I said that Rubio's lack of a record and fears of an empty suit has kept major "establishment" style donors from lining up behind him. No, I don't care enough to find cites so you can say "But that blog doesn't count and that one is liberal media and that one is..."
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You said that NH voters normally pick the most reasonable candidate (in contrast to Iowa).

I was speaking more specifically about the GOP side (although Obama vs Clinton probably qualifies as well) but Sanders has extraordinary circumstances working in his favor there. If you need to take "a well liked, popular regional figure did well there" and turn that into "So that means it's okay that Trump did too!" then I guess I can't stop you. Have fun with the delusion.
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#47 Feb 12 2016 at 6:52 PM Rating: Good
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gbaji wrote:
What's funny is that Rubio is actually viewed the exact opposite.
And adultery is only between two people.
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#48 Feb 12 2016 at 6:58 PM Rating: Excellent
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Well, hell, it was at the top of a Google search so here's a cite for Gbaji to pick apart and say it doesn't count and no one ever thought of Rubio as inexperienced and unready until mean ole' Christie picked on poor little Rubio...
American Conservative, January 14 2016 wrote:
As I’ve said before, “Rubio is repeatedly held up as someone whose time has come and then he fails to live up to the hype.” How many “moments” must a candidate waste before we can call him a failure?
[...]
The problem here is the relentless effort by many in the media (both mainstream and conservative) to build up Rubio into a much more competitive and even dominating candidate than he is, and part of that effort is giving Rubio a pass on things that would not be ignored with other candidates. Pundits credit him with a front-runner status he doesn’t have and won’t earn. News reports routinely exaggerate his supposed foreign policy expertise. Despite this, almost no one puts his arguments under the sort of scrutiny one would expect to be applied to someone in the position Rubio supposedly holds. He can make foreign policy statements that are just as jarringly dumb and ill-informed as any made by Walker or Trump, but that is almost never held against him. He can blithely talk about putting U.S. special forces in Yemen to help the Saudis in their atrocious war and complain that the U.S. isn’t doing enough to help them pummel that country, and almost no one notices.
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#49 Feb 12 2016 at 9:12 PM Rating: Excellent
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Multiple South Carolina polls out today (including one commissioned by the S. Carolina House Republicans) show Trump with the same sort of lead he had in New Hampshire: ~35% and about 20 points over his closest rivals.

Of course, South Carolina won't count either. Nor will any other state with an "unfortunate" result. Always a reason to say "Yeah but the NEXT state will show what the GOP primary voter really wants..."

Edit: Even worse news, Jeb! is polling even to or above Rubio. If Jeb! comes in 3rd, it'll be a shitstorm with no one willing to drop out of the race until after Super Tuesday.

Edited, Feb 12th 2016 9:14pm by Jophiel
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#50 Feb 13 2016 at 9:07 PM Rating: Decent
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gbaji wrote:
Oh. But on the broader subject. In keeping with the craziness of this primary so far, I've decided to double down on crazy and pick "Paul Ryan" as the one who will be inaugurated as president next January. Yes, there is a possible path to this that doesn't require anyone dying or anything. So that's where I'm going. Cause... why not?

Makes about as much sense as your other predictions.
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#51 Feb 13 2016 at 10:27 PM Rating: Excellent
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The state GOP, worried about Trump, stocked tonight's debate with establishment members to boo The Donald. Not even kidding: the state party chairs were given dozens of tickets to distribute to the party machine faithful so it'd be a friendly audience for Jeb! & Co.
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