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#1 Jun 24 2009 at 2:49 PM Rating: Excellent
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Hey folks, we're going to be doing another editorial feature, Speculation Analysis.

http://ffxiv.zam.com/story.html?story=18589

Feel free to let us know what you think in this thread!
#2 Jun 24 2009 at 2:52 PM Rating: Good
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We have literally no info to speculate on!

I think it's a little premature for a topic like this.

Wait until after SE actually starts announcing stuff.

Right now people are brainstorming speculation. Everything discussed and speculated has no basis.
#3 Jun 24 2009 at 2:55 PM Rating: Decent
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I say we speculate on whether it's premature.
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#4 Jun 24 2009 at 3:01 PM Rating: Default
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Evidence
For:

Add this line;
"The game has been in development since 2005, that would make it 5 years and we might have a beta ready already."

Edited, Jun 24th 2009 7:33pm by Maldavian
#5 Jun 24 2009 at 3:14 PM Rating: Excellent
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gumpman wrote:
We have literally no info to speculate on!

I think it's a little premature for a topic like this.

Wait until after SE actually starts announcing stuff.

Right now people are brainstorming speculation. Everything discussed and speculated has no basis.


That's sort of the point. The beta rumor is complete speculation, so we're analyzing that. A lot of threads here have been theories, so we'll look into what's available right now and give our take on it.
#6 Jun 24 2009 at 3:21 PM Rating: Excellent
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Maldavian wrote:
Evidence
For:
Add:

The game has been in development since 2005, that would make it 5 years and we might have a beta ready already.
Screenshot
#7 Jun 24 2009 at 3:38 PM Rating: Good
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Usagi wrote:
Maldavian wrote:
Evidence
For:
Add:

The game has been in development since 2005, that would make it 5 years and we might have a beta ready already.
Screenshot


lol u r not hav enuf fingers k
#8 Jun 24 2009 at 3:47 PM Rating: Excellent
He's still counting them, obviously.
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#9 Jun 24 2009 at 3:48 PM Rating: Excellent
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Math: Not so important actually.
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#10 Jun 24 2009 at 4:52 PM Rating: Good
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I actually agree with the ZAM analysis...odd. Guess we'll have to wait and see at the TGS^^
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#11 Jun 24 2009 at 5:18 PM Rating: Decent
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Hopefully the amount of speculation threads will die down after this, doubt it though. Can't wait for TGS though, wonder what will be said/released.

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#12 Jun 24 2009 at 5:30 PM Rating: Decent
But I haven't come up with enough really unpopular ideas yet!!!
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#13 Jun 24 2009 at 5:35 PM Rating: Default
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But I haven't come up with enough really unpopular ideas yet!!!


Oh oh oh, I have one! You know those girl cats you could play in FFXI? How about in FFXIV, we make them GUYS!

-.-;;
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#14 Jun 24 2009 at 5:37 PM Rating: Excellent
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I have to admit when I saw the term "girlka" my brain died.
#15 Jun 24 2009 at 5:46 PM Rating: Default
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I have to admit when I saw the term "girlka" my brain died.


Lol, right? Has no appeal to it. Is Girlka short for...GIRLKOW? Mispell maybe?
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#16 Jun 24 2009 at 6:14 PM Rating: Good
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Though i am no spectacled speculatist, i suspect and expect that speculation on these specks will spawn a spectacle.
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#17 Jun 24 2009 at 6:17 PM Rating: Default
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Though i am no spectacled speculatist, i suspect and expect that speculation on these specks will spawn a spectacle.


Speculation: {Found it!}

Pop!

{Provoke}
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#18 Jun 24 2009 at 6:18 PM Rating: Good
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The first announcement of the game came at E3 on June 2, 2009, a mere three weeks ago. Assuming that a public beta will be available four months after the announcement of the game is bordering on preposterous and assumes an exceptional degree of efficiency that is completely unheard of in the current MMO market.


It doesn't matter when the game was announced but how far along in development they are. If they are already doing alpha testing as some have suggested a beta by September seems logical. They have been in development for 4-5 years now...it just might be that far along.

I don't think GM hirings in Europe is good evidence for a September beta though. Not until I see GM job openings for all locations will I consider it evidence.
#19 Jun 24 2009 at 6:24 PM Rating: Excellent
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Yogtheterrible wrote:
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The first announcement of the game came at E3 on June 2, 2009, a mere three weeks ago. Assuming that a public beta will be available four months after the announcement of the game is bordering on preposterous and assumes an exceptional degree of efficiency that is completely unheard of in the current MMO market.


It doesn't matter when the game was announced but how far along in development they are. If they are already doing alpha testing as some have suggested a beta by September seems logical. They have been in development for 4-5 years now...it just might be that far along.

I don't think GM hirings in Europe is good evidence for a September beta though. Not until I see GM job openings for all locations will I consider it evidence.


The reason we dismissed this was because they were developing it while still developing FFXI. Modern MMOs have been taking an average of 3-4 years to develop and when you have the same team developing not one, but two, then 4 years seems like too tall an order. Hard to say though. Until someone who has actually developed an MMO from the ground up can tell me otherwise, I'd rather not set myself up for the disappointment.
#20 Jun 24 2009 at 7:11 PM Rating: Good
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Pikko wrote:
The reason we dismissed this was because they were developing it while still developing FFXI. Modern MMOs have been taking an average of 3-4 years to develop and when you have the same team developing not one, but two, then 4 years seems like too tall an order. Hard to say though. Until someone who has actually developed an MMO from the ground up can tell me otherwise, I'd rather not set myself up for the disappointment.


Very true, but their development of FFXI might have been directly related to FFXIV. Everything they did in FFXI after a certain point might have been for the purpose of testing ideas and theories for FFXIV in a quick and efficient way...which could possibly lead to a shorter than normal development time for FFXIV. With the lack of evidence and first hand experience it is impossible for us to rule out any date for the beta to begin.

All I was saying with my last post though was you can't use the announcement date as evidence since it has almost no bearing on the stage of development a game is in.
#21 Jun 24 2009 at 7:17 PM Rating: Default
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Quote:
Very true, but their development of FFXI might have been directly related to FFXIV. Everything they did in FFXI after a certain point might have been for the purpose of testing ideas and theories for FFXIV in a quick and efficient way...which could possibly lead to a shorter than normal development time for FFXIV.


This..
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#22 Jun 24 2009 at 7:21 PM Rating: Excellent
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I'm also gonna put money down on Yogtheterrible's post :P fancy my surprise of seeing your name after reading the post and being impressed haha
#23 Jun 24 2009 at 8:17 PM Rating: Excellent
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Skeptic wrote:
Oh oh oh, I have one! You know those girl cats you could play in FFXI? How about in FFXIV, we make them GUYS!

-.-;;


Howsabout you stop being passive aggressive and stop saying that in every single thread other than the one about the issue, maybe try and have a mature and intelligent discussion on the subject? Maybe even respond to the PM where I asked that you try take up your issues with me personally instead of driving the drama train around bad mouthing things? You're an A+ poster in my book so far.

Pikko wrote:
I have to admit when I saw the term "girlka" my brain died.


Out of curiosity, is it the term you're not a fan of, or the actual idea of a female Galka?


In any case, I enjoy the feature. Good to hear what you guys think, and it's entertaining to at least have see certain discussions centralized.

Never made an MMO, heh, but I'm experienced with other types of games, product pipelines, game design in general. Buncha stupid crap. I think they technically could have a beta available this year, especially depending on how much content they're airlifting directly from FFXI (considering updating or altering old assets is much faster than starting from scratch, and I can't say we know how many basics they're able to bring from FFXI into Crystal Tools). Also, how much time they've been spending on it these last years (since they announced it in "Rapture" form) is hard to gauge. Not unreasonable to assume they've been spending some decent amount on it, considering creating content for an existing game isn't nearly as time consuming as other activities.

I think it's more likely we'll get it next year; even if they've been spending loads of time on it, it's usually best to assume they'll always need more time for polishing. But I don't think the chance of a 2009 beta is unreasonable.
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#24Skeptic, Posted: Jun 24 2009 at 8:49 PM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post) Why do you keep harassing me in every thread I post? If I have Manthra and Girlka jokes then I'll let them fly as much as I please, lighten up. Didn't you send me two PMs already harassing me on this same issue? Chill out, seriously.
#25 Jun 24 2009 at 9:12 PM Rating: Good
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Skeptic wrote:
Why do you keep harassing me in every thread I post? If I have Manthra and Girlka jokes then I'll let them fly as much as I please, lighten up. Didn't you send me two PMs already harassing me on this same issue? Chill out, seriously.

Mad because there probably won't be man cats and girl cows? {That's too bad.}

Drop it, already.


Harassing you? Wait? I have? Have you not noticed that I've just been posting a lot regardless of who else is around? How have I even been "harassing" you, anyway? If I post in a thread because I'm interested in the subject matter and someone's being snarky and useless, there's a good chance I'll call them out on it. That's the closest I've come to "harassing" anyone.

You aren't making manthra and girlka jokes, you're deliberately saying, "Man, this is a stupid idea" in multiple unrelated threads. You started doing that after making a stink for no reason in a thread where people were discussing the issue. You're freaking going around like a drama queen dropping insults because you think it's cute. You came in, you didn't like our answers to your snark, and you left and started saying this crap without ever having one intelligent discourse on the matter.

One PM, and only after you did this passive aggressive bullcrap two or three times. I was "harassing" you to talk to me about it instead of just running around whining about it in unrelated threads.

"Mad" (if that's even the word) because you're being an insulting jerk for no reason and refusing to even man or woman up and justify this idiocy before you run around posting drama and snark. Are there not forum rules against this kind of ridiculous immaturity?

I'll "drop it" when you stop being insulting about a subject that people care about without even having the decency to justify your bullcrap and say it to their faces. Don't start crap because you want to look cool by dogging on people and then get surprised when, god forbid, you're confronted.

Now if you want to have a freaking discussion in PMs and stop dropping insults in unrelated threads, I think everyone would appreciate that.

Quote:
Very true, but their development of FFXI might have been directly related to FFXIV. Everything they did in FFXI after a certain point might have been for the purpose of testing ideas and theories for FFXIV in a quick and efficient way...which could possibly lead to a shorter than normal development time for FFXIV.


This was a very strong statement that I agree with. Of course, game design concepts are very different from actual assets and programming; it's obvious they'll be learning from FFXI quite a bit and, yes, they might have even tried new features to get ideas clearly tested on paper. While that certainly will streamline things, it's completely separate from how much time they'll be recovering from updating old assets and the barebones of certain old systems.

Edited, Jun 25th 2009 12:16am by PrinnyFlute

Edited, Jun 25th 2009 12:17am by PrinnyFlute
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#26Skeptic, Posted: Jun 24 2009 at 9:21 PM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post) "Goooo awaaayyyy!" =p
#27 Jun 24 2009 at 9:37 PM Rating: Good
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So in your alternate, non-logic universe, jumping around to unrelated threads and going "THOSE GAIZ HAV DUMB IDEA!!1lol they r so ******" while avoiding talking to the people who are actually concerned is like super the coolest, and somebody saying, "I'm asking you to stop being a jerk" is like, whoah, totally kindergarten.

I...you. Why, god?

Quote:
"Goooo awaaayyyy!" =p


The whole quote was more along the idea of "I'm 'harassing' you to talk to me instead of talking about and insulting my thread in unrelated ones". That's unreasonable?

Quote:

Now, back to the previous statement about FFXI being a "possible" test run for FFXIV..GO!


Stop prancing around doing this crap and it will never come up again. Hey, if you have the right to run around insulting what you want without actually having justified it, I've got the right to ask you to stop.

And yes, back to the statement? On my side of the expertise coin, if they're using their old source as base for new content, things will go much quicker. In this new HD age assets like art and sound are the absolutely most time consuming things to produce from scratch; especially in a genre like an MMORPG where they're not only trying to populate one city or select areas of different regions, but a good portion of an entire world. Mostly just because rising resolutions and need for higher details (and more texture maps; the average "next gen" model averages more than four separate texture maps for different purposes, whereas as recently as the PS2 it was most often just one or two) means models and textures simply take much longer to produce than they used to.

So if they're using existing FFXI things as bases to work up from, yes, those parts of asset creation are going to go a good deal quicker. I do think a 2010 beta is more likely; it's always best to assume that general polish is going to take massive amounts of time, most often more than studios are originally allotted.

We also don't know how much they're using from their other games, either. Since their newest wave is all using Crystal Tools, they might be saving quite a bit of time and using bits here and there that were made for other games using these dev tools.
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#28Skeptic, Posted: Jun 24 2009 at 9:41 PM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post) http://i48.photobucket.com/albums/f250/BX_Skeptic/Manthra.jpg
#29 Jun 24 2009 at 9:50 PM Rating: Decent
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I already responded to it when you PMed me the picture, what more do you want from me!?

In all seriousness, what's wrong with speculation? People do all kinds of stupid crap for fun, how is this so mind-bogglingly terrible to some people?

And besides, are you aware that one of the rules of the professional design process, most any kind of design process, is that no idea is too stupid? That this is the line of thinking that great designers from many fields subscribe to?

So people are having fun, germinating ideas and making friends. What's the big deal? Seriously, this is pretty relevant to a thread called "Speculation Analysis".
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#30Skeptic, Posted: Jun 24 2009 at 9:55 PM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post) The Speculation is TRYING to be analyzed, but umm...there's a few people along the way that can't take jokes. So, yea..
#31 Jun 24 2009 at 9:58 PM Rating: Decent
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You haven't told a "joke", and you've repeatedly implied that speculation is stupid.

Hey, why is it all of your hilarious "jokes" are about how stupid other people are, anyway?
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#32 Jun 24 2009 at 10:28 PM Rating: Excellent
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Please take this to PMs. I didn't even read your last few posts.

As for your question PrinnyFlute, I just don't like the term. I've seen female bearded dwarves in EQ, so female galkas aren't all that bad, just bigger.
#33 Jun 25 2009 at 3:22 AM Rating: Good
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Yogtheterrible wrote:
Very true, but their development of FFXI might have been directly related to FFXIV.
Hopefully they learned that level sync was a bad idea, but not nearly as bad as the sync'd gear. If they're going to bring it back, it should be only jobs that are already 75 capped that can sync. That way the whole skill issue won't be a big deal. The gear was just a train wreck. Augments were a train wreck as well. Oh, and situational gear. Please, for the love of (Insert your chosen Deity here) no more situational gear. Gear swap macros were ****. While on that subject, unlimited macro space please.

Edited, Jun 25th 2009 7:22am by lolgaxe
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#34 Jun 25 2009 at 5:32 AM Rating: Good
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Hopefully they wont need level sync. The system was only put in place to try and squeeze more playability out of the game-- new players often dont stick around due to the difficulty in getting a party to advance through the levels. The Level Sync went some way to ease this pain.
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#35 Jun 25 2009 at 7:54 AM Rating: Default
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Quote:
Please, for the love of (Insert your chosen Deity here) no more situational gear. Gear swap macros were ****.


Well then you'll love this thread:

http://ffxiv.zam.com/forum.html?game=268;mid=1245938029175607567;num=7;page=1

Enjoy!
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#36 Jun 25 2009 at 8:02 AM Rating: Default
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Kordain wrote:
Hopefully they wont need level sync. The system was only put in place to try and squeeze more playability out of the game-- new players often dont stick around due to the difficulty in getting a party to advance through the levels. The Level Sync went some way to ease this pain.


I'm 100% sure they will implement levelsync but not from 1-75, rather a 15 level range would be good.
#37 Jun 25 2009 at 8:06 AM Rating: Decent
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Kordain wrote:
Hopefully they wont need level sync. The system was only put in place to try and squeeze more playability out of the game.

No, level sync is a great idea regardless of the quality of the rest of the game. Honestly all MMORPGs should have level sync, and SE has done the best job out of all the MMORPGs with similar features. If there is only one feature to take from FFXI to FFXIV, it would be level sync.
#38 Jun 25 2009 at 8:09 AM Rating: Default
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Quote:
No, level sync is a great idea regardless of the quality of the rest of the game. Honestly all MMORPGs should have level sync, and SE has done the best job out of all the MMORPGs with similar features. If there is only one feature to take from FFXI to FFXIV, it would be level sync.


Agreed ^
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#39 Jun 25 2009 at 8:23 AM Rating: Decent
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lolgaxe wrote:
Hopefully they learned that level sync was a bad idea, but not nearly as bad as the sync'd gear.


I quit playing long before level sync came out, but being able to do a level capped BCNM or mission without having to mule for 20-30 minutes sounds like a godsend to me. What made level sync'd gear so terrible?
#40 Jun 25 2009 at 8:24 AM Rating: Good
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Quote:
What made level sync'd gear so terrible?


The fact that the gear progression in FFXI is horrible. Don't think it has anything to do with lvl sync at all really.
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#41 Jun 25 2009 at 8:37 AM Rating: Good
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Wow, this thread got derailed pretty quick.

I like the idea presented by the Editorial. This (Beta date) is maybe one of the only pieces of speculation that is based on actual information released by SE. Since that information was not specific to Beta, speculation arose. Therefore, it's nice to have a "De-bunking" of the rumor with pro's and con's. With the leaked picture thread, we the forum community basically did the same analysis of the picture to determine whether it was real or not. These are the types of rumors that should end up in this kind of analysis.

Most of the other speculation on these forums is based solely on what people want or don't want in FFXIV as directly related to their experiences with FFXI. There is nothing to debunk with this type of speculation.

I would like to see these kinds of editorials continue in the future, as we get more info and come up with "valid" speculation and rumors.
#42 Jun 26 2009 at 3:07 AM Rating: Good
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Skeptic wrote:
[Well then you'll love this thread:
No, I most assuredly will not.
Allegory wrote:
No, level sync is a great idea regardless of the quality of the rest of the game.
I'll agree it was a great idea, but it was implemented poorly. Due to how it was put in to the game, it created a pretty ugly situation where you weren't skilling up your weapons along with your levels. That was messy and a completely unnecessary headache.
katmandu wrote:
What made level sync'd gear so terrible?
Gear you sync'd down was nowhere near as useful as level appropriate gear, so your options are to either party gimp or buy/mule over gear. One of the biggest issues of people not wanting to do level capped missions was that they didn't want to deal with having to regear just to do it. Yes, its better than nothing. However, a lot of people don't like leveling gimp, or doing missions gimp.
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#43 Jun 26 2009 at 3:20 AM Rating: Decent
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I also think that Level Sync was a great addition and needs to be in FFXIV in some incarnation or another. In fact I'd say it will likely be one of the greatest carryovers from XI.
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