Not some super extensive test done over months but still good in my opinion and shows that it does affect it however small it may be.
Ah yes, we must thank ol' Eruntalon for that. Tell me that **** isn't still in the stickies.
He admitted some time ago that it was all made up. Considering people have tried and failed to repeat his results, I'd say that his own admission wasn't even necessary to confirm that it was a hoax.
All I can say is my HQ ratio for steel bullets is quite low for someone with a skill of 40+ the cap. My alchemy is 94 and my sub craft of smith is like 55. So if you could enlighten me on crafting HQ's work if not by moon phase/weather/etc, that would be great.
I'll gladly explain it, and it's so incredibly simple that it's ridiculous how long it took us to figure things out.
Skill level is the only thing that matters. Period. So take your recipe for Steel Bullets. It requires 48 Alchemy and 33 Smithing. There are four HQ tiers at 51, 31, and 11 above the skill requirements (and then your HQ rate when you're 10 above or less). Here are the rates, roughly:
51 above= 50% HQ rate
31 above= 25% HQ rate
11 above= 10% HQ rate
10 above= 1% HQ rate
Subcrafts count (actually, as far as the game mechanics are concerned, there's no such thing as subcrafts-- they count just as much as the "main" craft). Your HQ rate will be in your worst tier. In your case, Steel Bullets require 33 Smithing, but you only have 55, so you're not in the 31 tier yet (you'd need to be 33+31=64). You'll only be able to HQ them about 10% of the time.
Advanced support give you +3 skill, so you'll need to have that as well as some other +1 (Mitts, or maybe there's some other gear now, idk), and of course cap your Smithing sub. Or you could just level it to 61 if you're not worried about taking Alchemy all the way to 100.
Honestly, that's as complicated as crafting gets. Pretty much the only other thing someone might need to know is the success and skillup rates when you're under cap (it's 95% when you're at or above cap). Those have been figured out as well. So I don't know if there's still a bunch of crap stickied in the crafting forum, but that's really all there is to it.
No days. No moons. No directions. It's all about the tiers.
Ok, now we're going to get slash fiction of Wint x Kachi somehere... rule 34 and all...
Never confuse your inference as the listener for an implication of the speaker.
Good games are subjective like good food is subjective. You're not going to seriously tell me that there's not a psychological basis for why pizza is great and lutefisk is revolting. The thing about subjectivity is that, as subjects go, humans actually have a great deal in common.