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Will 11 cease?Follow

#1 Oct 04 2009 at 2:25 PM Rating: Decent
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Now bear in mind this is the first MMO I've played. I left it for a year when the Navy called me to do stuff but now I'm back and there's talk of a sequel game. What I'm wondering is if this game will fizzle out or not. Like I said this is my first MMO and I know that EQ has had a sequel and GW is supposed to be making one but I just don't want to get to far back into the game if the servers are gonna be shut down when 14 releases.
#2 Oct 04 2009 at 2:42 PM Rating: Decent
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No, they won't be shut down when it releases. But yes, 11 will eventually 'fizzle out'. XIV will release a year from now approximately... by then FFXI will probably be in need of some server merging to keep the populations good.
(Edit: Note that if I called the shots I would've preferred some server merges LAST october, which is when I recall levelling my WHM. But Level Sync helped.)
I would say the game will last about 1.5~2 years after that.

So (IMHO) the servers will stay online for around 3 more years.

Remember that by the time FFXIV comes out though game activity is going to be endgame almost exclusively, which it kind of already is...

Don't scare yourself into thinking FFXIV will draw so many players from XI that you won't have people to play with. There will be enough people for you to participate in most/all aspects of the game for years to come.

The only things you might notice is less opportunities for pick up groups and needing to rely on a Linkshell or static for everything, which is also already happening.

Even if you personally see yourself leaving XI for XIV or another game, a lot of fun can be had in a year. Now might not be the best time to make a really longterm goal like a relic or mythic weapon if you're just getting back into it though.

Edited, Oct 4th 2009 6:45pm by Poubelle
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#3 Oct 04 2009 at 4:12 PM Rating: Excellent
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The financial realities of the situation are as much a blessing as they are a curse.

The blessing is that due to server maintenance fees being one of the more reasonable business costs, it's beneficial for a company to keep servers active well past an MMO's prime. There are many examples of very old MMOs still running even though they've faded from the limelight. The grandaddy MMO of them all, Ultima Online is still running today. It even released a new expansion pack about a month ago.

The curse is that there's something called the Quality Ceiling. That means the point where adding more quality doesn't translate into more sales. As stated above, this doesn't necessarily mean the stagnation of content, it just means the company is more concerned about keeping people from leaving than they are generating fresh faces. How each company tackles that situation is different - for example sometimes customer service goes through the roof, sometimes it peters off into nothing. What is universal across the board is that content updates will be slower and the familiar faces you play with won't see much expansion.
#4 Oct 05 2009 at 1:54 PM Rating: Decent
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Hey thanks for clearing some stuff up for me guys. As far as Relic weapons go I'm not THAT into these MMOs as it is for something like that. I just don't wanna run around for days not seeing another player.
#5 Oct 05 2009 at 2:25 PM Rating: Default
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Well if someone were to respond, "FFXI is dying", you hear the tired excuse of look at Everquest. I don't know about all of you, but if most of my friends or people left forcing a server migration, FFXI will be dead in my book. No doubt people will continue playing for their own reasons. However, the lack of new content will be the indicator IMO. Aion has already made a minor dent in our FFXI player base. As FFXIV goes to Beta, this small group of people will grow larger.

I think there's a 50/50 chance we'll see a final new expansion for FFXI. It might depend on how many paying customers are left next year. These mini-expansions have less content than a patch, so I prefer not to count them.
#6 Oct 05 2009 at 3:45 PM Rating: Good
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EQOA for the PS2 came out before FFXI (NA release) and it has very small amount of people playing it now (I'd wager below 50,000), yet it is still going. I imagine FFXI will be around for many years to come. One of Final Fantasy's developers once said the want every FF game to be playable in some form for every generation. Based on this, I think if they ever tire of running FFXI they'll update it in a way that makes it extremely casual (ala Star Wars Galaxies) and then let people play for free or for a very low fee.
#7 Oct 05 2009 at 6:27 PM Rating: Decent
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Topic is pointless to ask until at least beta stages of 14. People can speculate a lot but until we actually know how XIV plays and handles we won't have the slightest idea how the game will be. The biggest problem is simple- if the game is a total change like it sounds like it will be, a lot of XI players may feel uncomfortable changing over. I am not going to ignore the fact that XI is outdated, assuming this doesn't effect it and they keep going at current rate and I had to put an end day to things I'd say closer to a 5 year marking before it gets too unbearably outdated (That again, is assuming no major change comes in, an xpac with loads of content can easily revitalize things).

If anything, if I had to guess Aion will have a larger impact to XI than XIV will. However, until we get actual detail on how XIV will handle, I won't put any weight (And I doubt square will to) towards it. It seems game continuations in MMO never make it well (Asheron's Call 2, Everquest 2) but then again, we haven't had that many to hit.
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#8 Oct 06 2009 at 10:32 AM Rating: Good
Poubelle wrote:
So (IMHO) the servers will stay online for around 3 more years.


The only thing I like better than hearing people speculate on things they really have no idea on, is when they add specific numbers or timeframes to the speculations.
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#9 Oct 06 2009 at 11:04 AM Rating: Default
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VawnLakshmi the Great wrote:


The only thing I like better than hearing people speculate on things they really have no idea on, is when they add specific numbers or timeframes to the speculations.


The time frame for FFXI is up to us the user base. SE has said it many times as long as people continue to play, they'll support it. That being true, FFXI will become a ghost town when FFXIV goes live. I've been polling on my server recently and FFXIV is set to take 75% of the player base. The other 25% said they'll play FFXI until it goes off-line or were undecided. So for me, the launch of FFXIV will help to drive a stake in FFXI. It won't die overnight, but then again it won't be the same place either. Server mergers will be proof FFXI is dying.
#10 Oct 06 2009 at 11:50 AM Rating: Decent
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We shall know in due time, my children.

Patience.
#11 Oct 06 2009 at 12:03 PM Rating: Good
ShadowedgeFFXI wrote:
VawnLakshmi the Great wrote:


The only thing I like better than hearing people speculate on things they really have no idea on, is when they add specific numbers or timeframes to the speculations.


I've been polling on my server recently and FFXIV is set to take 75% of the player base. The other 25% said they'll play FFXI until it goes off-line or were undecided. So for me, the launch of FFXIV will help to drive a stake in FFXI. It won't die overnight, but then again it won't be the same place either. Server mergers will be proof FFXI is dying.


Thank you for endulging me with these "numbers". I'm sure your tests were very scientific.

Edited, Oct 6th 2009 3:05pm by VawnLakshmi
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#12 Oct 06 2009 at 1:20 PM Rating: Good
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VawnLakshmi the Great wrote:

Thank you for endulging me with these "numbers". I'm sure your tests were very scientific.

Edited, Oct 6th 2009 3:05pm by VawnLakshmi


You don't need to be a jerkoff about it. It was a small sample size for sure, but that doesn't mean it's any less accurate. I don't understand why you're so adamant in believing FFXI isn't on its last legs. The 3 mini expansions have done a lot of damage in most peoples eyes. And who could forget the /bell patch. That's a lot of suck going on at the moment. FFXIV seems to be that breath of fresh air and it's kinda obvious now where all the R&D is going at SE.

There is such a thing as an educated guess. Maybe you should figure that factor in next time.

Edited, Oct 6th 2009 4:21pm by ShadowedgeFFXI
#13 Oct 06 2009 at 4:08 PM Rating: Decent
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Quote:
I don't understand why you're so adamant in believing FFXI isn't on its last legs.


I will direct you to this:

Quote:

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My 5-Box FFXI Setup (Pictures)

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#14 Oct 06 2009 at 5:06 PM Rating: Decent
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Fingers crossed
#15 Oct 07 2009 at 5:45 AM Rating: Good
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There is really no reason to even guess on XI's future until XIV has been out at least a year.
#16 Oct 07 2009 at 8:46 AM Rating: Default
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ShadowedgeFFXI wrote:
I don't understand why you're so adamant in believing FFXI isn't on its last legs. The 3 mini expansions have done a lot of damage in most peoples eyes. And who could forget the /bell patch. That's a lot of suck going on at the moment. FFXIV seems to be that breath of fresh air and it's kinda obvious now where all the R&D is going at SE.

There is such a thing as an educated guess. Maybe you should figure that factor in next time.


I would imagine that the very reasons to believe FFXI is not on its last leg are the reasons you stated. I still play XI, but never bothered to pick up these 'mini expansions'. I'm guessing most people avoided these for the same reason I did. It doesn't seem to be new content as much as it is a few new missions and a couple pieces of gear...we get all of this every couple months. Its called a version update and its free. An expansion should be just that; *NEW* content that expands on what we already have.

As for XIV I don't really see it as you describe it being a breath of fresh air. As a matter of fact aside from the spiffy graphics almost everything about the game that we've been given detailed information on its pretty much carbon copy from XI. I know they're saving the juicy bits for closer to the release or at least til beta, but they'd better show it before release or they're dooming themselves to failure yet again. How many times do you think they'd have us forgive them for creating a bad experience?
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#17 Oct 07 2009 at 10:47 AM Rating: Decent
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FilthMcNasty wrote:

I would imagine that the very reasons to believe FFXI is not on its last leg are the reasons you stated. I still play XI, but never bothered to pick up these 'mini expansions'. I'm guessing most people avoided these for the same reason I did. It doesn't seem to be new content as much as it is a few new missions and a couple pieces of gear...we get all of this every couple months. Its called a version update and its free. An expansion should be just that; *NEW* content that expands on what we already have.

As for XIV I don't really see it as you describe it being a breath of fresh air. As a matter of fact aside from the spiffy graphics almost everything about the game that we've been given detailed information on its pretty much carbon copy from XI. I know they're saving the juicy bits for closer to the release or at least til beta, but they'd better show it before release or they're dooming themselves to failure yet again. How many times do you think they'd have us forgive them for creating a bad experience?


Well I played the mini expansions and they both sucked so far. Neither was worth 10 bucks if you don't include the prize at the end. Even then, I've had more of a thrill doing quests in the regular storyline.

Well the reason why you haven't seen much on FFXIV is because the game isn't close enough to Beta. At E3, you'll get your info, trust me on that. How do I know, it's simple. E3 is held at the same time FFXIV should be starting the Beta process. So in the meantime, the Devs are working overtime to work on the game. The similar stuff they released like races isn't a secret because we already know about them. So yeah, it doesn't surprise me SE hasn't shown more of the game's new features. Be patient until E3, you'll get your answers then. I predict 5-6 months after E3, FFXIV will go live.
#18 Oct 07 2009 at 1:19 PM Rating: Good
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VarnLakshmi wrote:
The only thing I like better than hearing people speculate on things they really have no idea on, is when they add specific numbers or timeframes to the speculations.


Honestly, it's a public board made for users to share their opinions with each other.

Anybody can say "FFXI WILL LIVE LONG TIME"; I felt like making a more exact estimate.

Maybe I'm wrong and the servers will stay online longer than that (they certainly won't close sooner) but that's my opinion. At the very least, the community will be severely reduced by that point.
There probably won't be in-game GM support anymore, maintenance periods will be few, updates will be nonexistent.

Again, it is my opinion, but is it really that ridiculous? 3 more years?

That puts FFXI's lifespan at 10 years. That's a freakin' long *** time for a single game.
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