My bet is on a Late Oct. / Mid Nov. date. If the first round of testing (notice I didn't say alpha or beta cause really, who knows what the heck the difference is anymore?) is starting this month, and is supposed to go on for 6 months or so that would put you into Sept/Oct, give SE some time for finishing touches, and voila FFXIV is on the shelves in time for the Christmas shopping rush.
On a side note, as nice of a Christmas present it would be, my wife already knows that the day it comes out is the day I'm getting and loading it. :)
The more I train, the harder I get. The harder I get, the more lethal I am. The more lethal I am, the fewer opponents. The fewer opponents, the less to lose. The less to lose, the more I let up. The more I let up, the more room for mistakes. The more room for mistakes, the more I train.