Forum Settings
       
This Forum is Read Only

The odds hate meFollow

#1 Aug 09 2010 at 7:07 PM Rating: Decent
*
183 posts
I was thinking about the German site beta giveaways. They were giving away between 500 to 5000 beta keys depending. Zam is a pretty big place, so I wouldn't doubt that they were given quite a few keys themselves. So for arguments sake, lets say they were given 3000 keys to hand out. I have the feeling that if 3001 people sign up for the event by tomorrow, I will be that 1 person who doesn't get in.

Meh, such is life. :D
#2 Aug 09 2010 at 7:08 PM Rating: Decent
Scholar
****
5,159 posts
They were only given fifty keys for the WoW beta, and as far as I know that one has a lot more testers than FFXI's. Not that it's easy to tell with the NDA, but still, I'm pretty sure we'll be looking at a double-digit number of keys given out.
#3 Aug 09 2010 at 7:11 PM Rating: Decent
*
183 posts
Heh, well that severely reduces the odds then. I wont feel so bad now if I don't get in.
#4 Aug 09 2010 at 7:30 PM Rating: Decent
Scholar
Avatar
*
93 posts
At least we are fortunate enough to get that chance. I would take anything to increase our chances of playing in the beta.
____________________________
Zeios
"To each his own"
#5 Aug 09 2010 at 7:36 PM Rating: Excellent
Anterograde Amnesia
Avatar
*****
12,363 posts
Best part is you'll never know, since testers can't talk about it Smiley: smile
____________________________
"Choosy MMO's choose Wint." - Louiscool
The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was to convince the world he didn't exist.
Keyser Soze - Ultros
Guide to Setting Up Mumble on a Raspberry Pi
#6 Aug 09 2010 at 7:37 PM Rating: Decent
Scholar
*
175 posts
Meh. If I get in, its a bonus. If I don't, its expected.
____________________________
FFXI:(Remora -> Leviathan -> Shiva) WHM, BLM, RDM, THF, SAM, DNC
FFXIV: (Rabanastre) Working on: CON ~ LNC





#7 Aug 09 2010 at 7:43 PM Rating: Decent
Scholar
Avatar
*
93 posts
I am not expecting either, the suspense is awesome I am willing to let it keep building up. Will just make the journey through the game even more fun at release so I can play with options and figure stuff out!
____________________________
Zeios
"To each his own"
#8 Aug 09 2010 at 8:57 PM Rating: Good
**
602 posts
ok lets all be more negative...






"sigh" I wont get in either...
____________________________
BANNED

#9 Aug 09 2010 at 9:02 PM Rating: Good
Scholar
**
375 posts
If I get in... I'm going to play Lotto same day...
____________________________
FFXIV- Laell Orias Conjurer
Server- Besaid

"But Phillip... he's a girl crab.
#10 Aug 09 2010 at 9:16 PM Rating: Good
***
1,159 posts
Majivo wrote:
They were only given fifty keys for the WoW beta, and as far as I know that one has a lot more testers than FFXI's. Not that it's easy to tell with the NDA, but still, I'm pretty sure we'll be looking at a double-digit number of keys given out.


In terms of the percentage of fans of the gaming populations though zam has a small WoW population. It owns the vast majority of the FFXI and FFXIV fanbase though so it would make much more sense for SE to give a large amount of keys to Zam while not so much for Blizz to do the same thing.
#11 Aug 09 2010 at 9:24 PM Rating: Good
***
1,218 posts
Majivo wrote:
They were only given fifty keys for the WoW beta, and as far as I know that one has a lot more testers than FFXI's. Not that it's easy to tell with the NDA, but still, I'm pretty sure we'll be looking at a double-digit number of keys given out.


What does Cataclysm beta have to do with FFXIV beta other than both being betas? NA is a comparable market to Europe. The OP's assumptions make a lot of sense, as does his or her superstitious attempt to perform reverse psychology on Lady Luck.

Edited, Aug 9th 2010 11:25pm by KarlHungis
#12 Aug 09 2010 at 9:55 PM Rating: Decent
Scholar
****
5,159 posts
KarlHungis wrote:
Majivo wrote:
They were only given fifty keys for the WoW beta, and as far as I know that one has a lot more testers than FFXI's. Not that it's easy to tell with the NDA, but still, I'm pretty sure we'll be looking at a double-digit number of keys given out.


What does Cataclysm beta have to do with FFXIV beta other than both being betas? NA is a comparable market to Europe. The OP's assumptions make a lot of sense, as does his or her superstitious attempt to perform reverse psychology on Lady Luck.

Since SE is emulating Cataclysm's release date and beta schedule, I wouldn't at all doubt if they copied this bit too. Besides which, even if that weren't the case, the fact that they are both betas provides a baseline for how companies operate in these circumstances - much more so than simply guessing "it'll be this many". I guarantee you the number of keys is not in the quadruple digits, that's for sure.

Yog does make a fair point in terms of population proportions, though. However, given the proportional difference versus the absolute difference, it's still quite unlikely that we'll see more than 50-100 keys given out.

ETA: And I don't know what the NA vs EU bit is supposed to mean, since SE's contest is NA only and I think WoW's was NA/EU (could be mistaken). Unless you're referring to how many the German site gave away, which would make a reasonable baseline and which I originally missed. "Between 500-5000" is a **** of a range, though, and could be predicated on a different system than ours.

Edited, Aug 9th 2010 10:58pm by Majivo
#13 Aug 10 2010 at 12:14 AM Rating: Good
**
362 posts
The best thing you can do is sign up and forget about it. If you win a key, awesome; if not, well... hopefully you really did forget, and it won't matter. ^^

Quote:
If I get in... I'm going to play Lotto same day...

This.
____________________________
"Unfortunately many game companies are learning that if they can just keep you busy, you might not realize how bored you are." - Kachi
"Pride in your character will amount to nothing more than the level of intimacy I have when I order a burger from McDonald's" - Warfox07
"I find comfort food always helps when I feel like killing myself." - Papashan (FFXIV)
#14 Aug 10 2010 at 1:10 AM Rating: Good
**
409 posts
Frebaut wrote:
ok lets all be more negative...






"sigh" I wont get in either...


Someone get me a razor blade, I need to read catcher in the rye and start cutting myself....

Negative enough? o.o
____________________________
Q: How many SE employees does it take to change a lightbulb?
A: None, it's working as intended.
#15 Aug 10 2010 at 3:55 AM Rating: Decent
Scholar
**
441 posts
SickleSageKiroh wrote:
Frebaut wrote:
ok lets all be more negative...






"sigh" I wont get in either...


Someone get me a razor blade, I need to read catcher in the rye and start cutting myself....

Negative enough? o.o


Thought Catcher in the Rye was read by serial killers... not emo peeps lol
____________________________
“Big jobs usually go to the men who prove their ability to outgrow small ones.”
Theodore Roosevelt

“Between men and women there is no friendship possible. There is passion, enmity, worship, love, but no friendship.”
Oscar Wilde

#16 Aug 10 2010 at 3:56 AM Rating: Excellent
Myzldas wrote:
SickleSageKiroh wrote:
Frebaut wrote:
ok lets all be more negative...






"sigh" I wont get in either...


Someone get me a razor blade, I need to read catcher in the rye and start cutting myself....

Negative enough? o.o


Thought Catcher in the Rye was read by serial killers... not emo peeps lol


I always thought it was read by conspiracy theorists.
#17 Aug 10 2010 at 3:58 AM Rating: Excellent
Anterograde Amnesia
Avatar
*****
12,363 posts
People read Catcher in the Rye? Smiley: grin
____________________________
"Choosy MMO's choose Wint." - Louiscool
The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was to convince the world he didn't exist.
Keyser Soze - Ultros
Guide to Setting Up Mumble on a Raspberry Pi
#18 Aug 10 2010 at 8:00 AM Rating: Decent
Scholar
***
1,151 posts
Not since I finished high school.
#19 Aug 10 2010 at 8:12 AM Rating: Excellent
Guru
***
1,673 posts
Wint wrote:
People read Catcher in the Rye? Smiley: grin


This, right?

Screenshot
#20 Aug 10 2010 at 8:13 AM Rating: Excellent
Anterograde Amnesia
Avatar
*****
12,363 posts
Smiley: laugh
____________________________
"Choosy MMO's choose Wint." - Louiscool
The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was to convince the world he didn't exist.
Keyser Soze - Ultros
Guide to Setting Up Mumble on a Raspberry Pi
#21 Aug 10 2010 at 8:21 AM Rating: Excellent
***
3,178 posts
HA! Nicely done Geffe.
This forum is read only
This Forum is Read Only!
Recent Visitors: 17 All times are in CST
Anonymous Guests (17)