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Over or under 500k sales the first monthFollow

#1 Sep 13 2010 at 2:27 PM Rating: Good
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I'll be optimistic and say over. 650,000 subs the first month.
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#2 Sep 13 2010 at 2:29 PM Rating: Decent
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haha that didnt take long to get rated down!
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#3 Sep 13 2010 at 2:30 PM Rating: Default
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Who cares? As long as there's at least one server with full population we're good.
#4 Sep 13 2010 at 2:31 PM Rating: Default
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yeah but do u think they will let you pick your server like in the beta ?
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#5 Sep 13 2010 at 2:32 PM Rating: Decent
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BRizzl3 wrote:
Who cares? As long as there's at least one server with full population we're good.


If you dont like to talk numbers dont bother to respond. Its a simple question AND its not a fanboi or a troll thread, just a simple numbers thread.
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#6 Sep 13 2010 at 2:33 PM Rating: Decent
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im pretty sure it will sell but im not sure if it will break records 400,000 - 450,000 maybe
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#7 Sep 13 2010 at 2:34 PM Rating: Decent
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I would say it's gonna be over 500k. The question is whether the majority will stay or not.
#8 Sep 13 2010 at 2:35 PM Rating: Decent
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IIIvirusIII wrote:
im pretty sure it will sell but im not sure if it will break records 400,000 - 450,000 maybe


Doesnt warhammer have the record with like 650-850k or something?
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#9 Sep 13 2010 at 2:36 PM Rating: Default
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I kinda feel like with the split release my 650k might be a bit high but I'm gonna stick with it.
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#10 Sep 13 2010 at 2:45 PM Rating: Decent
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yeah i think warhammer does hold the record around 650.000 , i hope this game does well as im really looking forward to it , i made a decision not to touch any part of the beta so i could enjoy the main game at release .
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#11 Sep 13 2010 at 3:32 PM Rating: Good
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This is a tricky question considering a good percentage of the playerbase will be joining in march with the PS3 launch. I think with bad press and some unfriendliness getting started I realistically see around 400-500k with PC launch. With the PS3 launch I would figure maybe another 150-200k subscribers. I would love to be wrong and have much more, and hey my numbers could be completely off as is, but we'll see.

Edited, Sep 13th 2010 4:59pm by Ipwnrice
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#12 Sep 13 2010 at 4:33 PM Rating: Decent
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UncleRuckusForLife wrote:
I'll be optimistic and say over. 650,000 subs the first month.


No way
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#13 Sep 13 2010 at 5:15 PM Rating: Decent
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I'm going with this (active sub count, not sales count):

End of...
Oct 2010 = 250k
Nov 2010 = 400k
Dec 2010 = 500k
Jan 2011 = 550k
Feb 2011 = 575k
Mar 2011 = 700k
Apr 2011 = 800k
May 2011 = 875k
Jun 2011 = 925k
Jul 2011 = 950k
Aug 2011 = 950k
Sep 2011 = 925k
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#14 Sep 13 2010 at 5:24 PM Rating: Decent
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TauuOfSiren wrote:
I'm going with this (active sub count, not sales count):

End of...
Oct 2010 = 250k
Nov 2010 = 400k
Dec 2010 = 500k
Jan 2011 = 550k
Feb 2011 = 575k
Mar 2011 = 700k
Apr 2011 = 800k
May 2011 = 875k
Jun 2011 = 925k
Jul 2011 = 950k
Aug 2011 = 950k
Sep 2011 = 925k


you dont think there will be more than 175k japanese players starting in Mars (ps3 release)?

i think feb- mars will probabably see a double up on the # of subs.
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#15 Sep 13 2010 at 5:45 PM Rating: Decent
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GusMorgan wrote:
[quote=TauuOfSiren]I'm going with this (active sub count, not sales count):

End of...
Oct 2010 = 250k
Nov 2010 = 400k
Dec 2010 = 500k
Jan 2011 = 550k
Feb 2011 = 575k
Mar 2011 = 700k
Apr 2011 = 800k
May 2011 = 875k
Jun 2011 = 925k
Jul 2011 = 950k
Aug 2011 = 950k
Sep 2011 = 925k


To my knowledge no game other than 1 has had their subs go up like that over its first year of sales. If you are right it will be awsome news for SE.
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#16 Sep 13 2010 at 5:56 PM Rating: Decent
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Will prob sell really well at first. I understand mmos can start off rough and they fix things after a couple patches, But if the glaring problems are still around a month or two after release, I won't be staying.
I want this game to succeed! SE get your thumb out of your ***!
#17 Sep 13 2010 at 6:05 PM Rating: Excellent
Edited by bsphil
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My prediction would be a large number of initial sales followed by a sharp initial drop of active accounts after the first month, then a steady player base for the next several months until the PS3 release is due.
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#18 Sep 13 2010 at 6:24 PM Rating: Decent
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Wild speculation much?
Its the number of people who are still playing and paying in October onwards that matter anyway.
At most it will be 4-5 million units sold in the first year (PC+PS3) probably closer to 2 million as its an MMO and not all FF fans will want to pay subs long-term.
#19 Sep 13 2010 at 6:30 PM Rating: Good
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I think PS3 release will see a larger jump den predicted maybe ard 250~300k. Some PC holder are holding back to play with friends/family who is getting the PS3 version.

My prediction (using/copying TauuofSiren's format):

Oct 2010 = 400k
Nov 2010 = 450k
Dec 2010 = 575k (Holiday Season)
Jan 2011 = 500k (Mass quitting or Mass Banning)
Feb 2011 = 575k (Ad.Campaign for PS3 version)
Mar 2011 = 800k (Predicted Lanch of PS3 version)
Apr 2011 = 850k
May 2011 = 875k
Jun 2011 = 925k
Jul 2011 = 975k
Aug 2011 = 950k
Sep 2011 = 925k

But alot can happen in 4~5 mth, bad or good publicity can increase or decress that figure by 50%. I wonder if SE will do some PR or adverstiment campaign (outside JP) this time? Tho imho if they did do adverstiment the subs will spike up den drop down.

Edited, Sep 14th 2010 12:31am by Sleepymagi
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