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#1 Sep 23 2010 at 2:04 PM Rating: Excellent
Generated this using the Lodestone Character Search.

http://img827.imageshack.us/img827/5707/ffxivstats09232010.jpg - (Done at 16:30 GMT -4)

http://img8.imageshack.us/img8/296/ffxivstats09232010v2.jpg - (Done at 21:50 GMT -4)

Might do another tomorrow morning.

Edited, Sep 23rd 2010 9:51pm by UnknownSoldier
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#2 Sep 23 2010 at 2:08 PM Rating: Good
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i been staring at this for a few minutes.. im beginning to think this isnt a magic eye picture..
EDIT: aww you edited it.. o well lol

Edited, Sep 23rd 2010 4:09pm by Ba1dw1n
#3 Sep 23 2010 at 2:10 PM Rating: Good
Ah hah, I thought I was posting this in my journal, was trying to get the damned forum to properly format either the image or the tab-delimited equivalent.

The forum hates me, so I guess I'll just link to the pic.
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#4 Sep 23 2010 at 2:10 PM Rating: Good
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Ba1dw1n wrote:
i been staring at this for a few minutes.. im beginning to think this isnt a magic eye picture..


Just keep staring....

It's a boat!
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#5bsphil, Posted: Sep 23 2010 at 2:11 PM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post) Dude you suck at bbcode. Just post the plain text url.
#6 Sep 23 2010 at 2:14 PM Rating: Good
bsphil wrote:
UnknownSoldier wrote:
Generated this using the xiv.com/rc/search/characterForm]Lodestone Character Search.


Edited, Sep 23rd 2010 5:08pm by UnknownSoldier
Dude you suck at bbcode. Just post the plain text url.

http://lodestone.finalfantasyxiv.com/rc/search/characterForm



Edited, Sep 23rd 2010 3:12pm by bsphil


Somehow the "code" (lies) tags got mixed into the url. Tried just saving this as a tab-delimited file, but apparently the "code" feature doesn't think tab spaces are real.
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#7 Sep 23 2010 at 2:16 PM Rating: Decent
Edited by bsphil
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So is this an account of how many people are actively online, or a full character search regardless of whether they're logged in or not?
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#8 Sep 23 2010 at 2:20 PM Rating: Good
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bsphil wrote:
So is this an account of how many people are actively online, or a full character search regardless of whether they're logged in or not?


Oo, good question!
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"... he called to himself a wizard, named Gallery, hoping by this means to escape the paying of the fifteen hundred crowns..." (Machen 15)

"Thus opium is pleasing... on account of the agreeable delirium it produces." (Burke para.6)

"I could only read so much for this paper and the syphilis poem had to go."
#9 Sep 23 2010 at 2:24 PM Rating: Decent
Edited by bsphil
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The way it's set up makes it look like a directory of players, akin to the LS community site in FFXI, meaning that it'd search everyone even if they aren't logged on. Can't really say for sure though.
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His Excellency Aethien wrote:
Almalieque wrote:
If no one debated with me, then I wouldn't post here anymore.
Take the hint guys, please take the hint.
gbaji wrote:
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#10 Sep 23 2010 at 2:28 PM Rating: Good
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bsphil wrote:
The way it's set up makes it look like a directory of players, akin to the LS community site in FFXI, meaning that it'd search everyone even if they aren't logged on. Can't really say for sure though.

That's what it certainly seems like, though I know searching for myself it's not showing up. But who knows what delays they might have even if it is every character registered on a server. :\
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#11 Sep 23 2010 at 2:31 PM Rating: Decent
Mmm you make a good point. I can't find my character on my server, but I haven't logged on in 20ish hours. It looks more like an online or recently online list. If that's the case then those servers with higher numbers here (that I haven't really seen mentioned as the "it" servers) are probably European-centric servers.

Either way I'll do this again later tonight around NA primetime just to compare.

Edited, Sep 23rd 2010 5:33pm by UnknownSoldier
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"Your fate is my destiny. And your destiny shall be my fate."
#12 Sep 23 2010 at 2:32 PM Rating: Decent
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so many conjurers O.o I never wouldve expected that many mage-type players. FFXI was FLOODED with melee chars. It's very comical to see that the most leveled are tanks and healers though. i'm thinking that 3 hour LFG sessions will be a thing of the past. especially since both glad and conj are actually FUN to play

Edited, Sep 23rd 2010 4:33pm by xGaelx
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#13 Sep 23 2010 at 2:34 PM Rating: Good
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These numbers aren't entirely accurate as my character doesn't even show up in the search engine, and I've been playing for two days. (I'm even registered at lodestone) So if anything those numbers are larger. SE really better start upgrading their servers or it's not going to fly come general release.
#14 Sep 23 2010 at 3:17 PM Rating: Good
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48k. lets be generous and say its 50 adding in people it for some reason didnt count. a successful MMO(one that makes a profit) does so at around 100k subs. half way there with only the CE. thats impressive. there will be a surge of new players on the 30th as well as in march.

now people could always stop their sub. which hapens alot with new MMOs but im going to go ahead and say FF14 is a success
#15 Sep 23 2010 at 3:17 PM Rating: Good
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Statistically, its more than enough to give a very useful representation. Flip a coin 30 times and you'll never be more than a couple off percent off of 50%.

Anyway, I'm really shocked at a few things. Didn't expect so many Gladiators and didn't expect so few Archers. I might have to reconsider my Class since I don't like to play the most popular choices. Of course things will change as people learn which Classes are the most useful.

To the person above who seemed surprised at the large number of healers.... they aren't levelling it to be healers, they are levelling it because of the massive, fun damage they are expected to produce. It's like a black mage on crack with the added bonus of having powerful cure spells. What's not to love.

Looks like the early money will be in Leathercrafting... I'm going to scrap my Smithing plans since it appears that everyone is all over that one right out the gates. Of course if its anything at all like FFXI 99.9 percent of them will bail out once they realize how expensive it will be to continue levelling it.

#16 Sep 23 2010 at 3:24 PM Rating: Decent
Edited by bsphil
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XIglooX wrote:
48k. lets be generous and say its 50 adding in people it for some reason didnt count. a successful MMO(one that makes a profit) does so at around 100k subs. half way there with only the CE. thats impressive. there will be a surge of new players on the 30th as well as in march.

now people could always stop their sub. which hapens alot with new MMOs but im going to go ahead and say FF14 is a success
The measure of success won't be for just over a month when all of the free 30 days of play dry up.
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Almalieque wrote:
If no one debated with me, then I wouldn't post here anymore.
Take the hint guys, please take the hint.
gbaji wrote:
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#17 Sep 23 2010 at 3:44 PM Rating: Good
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Mithsavvy wrote:
Statistically, its more than enough to give a very useful representation. Flip a coin 30 times and you'll never be more than a couple off percent off of 50%.


This isn't true. For one you can't establish a standard deviation in one set of 30 coin flips. Two, it's been mathematically proven that even though there are only two sides to a coin, the odds aren't close to within 1-2% of 50, no matter how many samples you take. Just for you reference :)
#18 Sep 23 2010 at 3:45 PM Rating: Default
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bsphil wrote:
XIglooX wrote:
48k. lets be generous and say its 50 adding in people it for some reason didnt count. a successful MMO(one that makes a profit) does so at around 100k subs. half way there with only the CE. thats impressive. there will be a surge of new players on the 30th as well as in march.

now people could always stop their sub. which hapens alot with new MMOs but im going to go ahead and say FF14 is a success
The measure of success won't be for just over a month when all of the free 30 days of play dry up.



ya. we'll know for certain after 2 months.

Edited, Sep 23rd 2010 5:46pm by XIglooX
#19 Sep 23 2010 at 3:45 PM Rating: Good
Looks like cooking is least popular, not surprising since nobody uses food yet. A few intrepid souls going for it anyways though.

I'll be doing cooking too, but not yet. Getting some gathering skills like fishing up first so I have some means.
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#20 Sep 23 2010 at 4:40 PM Rating: Decent
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Mithsavvy wrote:
Statistically, its more than enough to give a very useful representation. Flip a coin 30 times and you'll never be more than a couple off percent off of 50%.


*flips*

I just got heads fifteen times in a row... so the next fifteen flips are going to come up tails? >_>
____________________________
"... he called to himself a wizard, named Gallery, hoping by this means to escape the paying of the fifteen hundred crowns..." (Machen 15)

"Thus opium is pleasing... on account of the agreeable delirium it produces." (Burke para.6)

"I could only read so much for this paper and the syphilis poem had to go."
#21 Sep 23 2010 at 4:48 PM Rating: Good
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KaneKitty wrote:
Mithsavvy wrote:
Statistically, its more than enough to give a very useful representation. Flip a coin 30 times and you'll never be more than a couple off percent off of 50%.


*flips*

I just got heads fifteen times in a row... so the next fifteen flips are going to come up tails? >_>


On average over all the flips of a coin everyone performs ever, about 50% will be heads, and about 50% will be tails

Yay non-exclusive random events Smiley: smile
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#22 Sep 23 2010 at 4:55 PM Rating: Default
Edited by bsphil
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AlMcFly wrote:
For one you can't establish a standard deviation in one set of 30 coin flips.
Sure you can.

AlMcFly wrote:
Two, it's been mathematically proven that even though there are only two sides to a coin, the odds aren't close to within 1-2% of 50, no matter how many samples you take.
Strong Law of Large Numbers says f*ck your theory. Now, I'll agree that 30 samples isn't enough to get a ~3% margin of error, but with enough coin flips you will.

Case in point, I just generated 1000 random integers from random.org. The results were either a 1 or a 0. Assuming a completely random distribution, it should be 50% 0s and 50% 1s, so 500 1s and 500 0s. Copied the list into excel and ran a SUM of the numbers. 498. Within a .5% margin of error.
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His Excellency Aethien wrote:
Almalieque wrote:
If no one debated with me, then I wouldn't post here anymore.
Take the hint guys, please take the hint.
gbaji wrote:
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#23 Sep 23 2010 at 5:00 PM Rating: Decent
Food seems like somthing that will boon later on, at the moment the best way to got better gear is thorugh crafts. But when half the server can make level 50 gear there will be no point in learning it as most people will know exactly where to go to get it. Food however, if it works at least similar as to how it did in XI, will be in constant demand later on, when every body has top notch gear ans is hunting the highest level MOBs, Food will be the only thing you will have to over-endulge on.
#24 Sep 23 2010 at 5:22 PM Rating: Good
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Archmage Callinon wrote:
KaneKitty wrote:
Mithsavvy wrote:
Statistically, its more than enough to give a very useful representation. Flip a coin 30 times and you'll never be more than a couple off percent off of 50%.


*flips*

I just got heads fifteen times in a row... so the next fifteen flips are going to come up tails? >_>


On average over all the flips of a coin everyone performs ever, about 50% will be heads, and about 50% will be tails

Yay non-exclusive random events Smiley: smile


In my initial post, I was trying to illustrate a fallacious way of thinking; but I don't think it came across. XD
____________________________
"... he called to himself a wizard, named Gallery, hoping by this means to escape the paying of the fifteen hundred crowns..." (Machen 15)

"Thus opium is pleasing... on account of the agreeable delirium it produces." (Burke para.6)

"I could only read so much for this paper and the syphilis poem had to go."
#25 Sep 23 2010 at 5:36 PM Rating: Good
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AlMcFly wrote:
Mithsavvy wrote:
Statistically, its more than enough to give a very useful representation. Flip a coin 30 times and you'll never be more than a couple off percent off of 50%.


This isn't true. For one you can't establish a standard deviation in one set of 30 coin flips. Two, it's been mathematically proven that even though there are only two sides to a coin, the odds aren't close to within 1-2% of 50, no matter how many samples you take. Just for you reference :)


I've had way too many graduate level statistics classes to even bother arguing with you. Nonetheless, I will get more specific instead of just posting a rough number. 1 Std Deviation on 50 fips would be 3.5. So 68% of the time you would come within 3.5 flips of 25 head and 25 tails. So you are right and wrong. The number I tossed out there was off the top of my head without running any numbers, but it still gets my point accross.

People ignorant to the subject of statistics always think that it takes "thousands" of samples to get a useful picture of whats going on with data. Its not true. You can get a very good idea of whats going on with many less. And you don't need to be within half std dev of the mean to have useful data.



Edited, Sep 23rd 2010 6:50pm by Mithsavvy
#26 Sep 23 2010 at 6:13 PM Rating: Good
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There is a prize behind one of three doors; you choose one door and the announcer opens another, asking if you want to change your choice, what do you do? What are the probabilities that the prize is behind the door you chose and the other door?
#27 Sep 23 2010 at 6:30 PM Rating: Decent
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Quote:
The measure of success won't be for just over a month when all of the free 30 days of play dry up.


You are right, except for that it's not really a free 30 days. It's actually a 50$ to 75$ 30 days.
#28 Sep 23 2010 at 6:53 PM Rating: Good
Just posted another tally I just finished. Kind of evident now that it's an online/recently online count of players. I'll probably drop a last one tomorrow morning.
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#29 Sep 23 2010 at 7:11 PM Rating: Good
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Hulan wrote:
There is a prize behind one of three doors; you choose one door and the announcer opens another, asking if you want to change your choice, what do you do? What are the probabilities that the prize is behind the door you chose and the other door?


I think most of us took elementary statistics enough to know about the Monty Hall problem! Although I would love to see an argument about it on alla... you sneaky snake, you.
____________________________
"... he called to himself a wizard, named Gallery, hoping by this means to escape the paying of the fifteen hundred crowns..." (Machen 15)

"Thus opium is pleasing... on account of the agreeable delirium it produces." (Burke para.6)

"I could only read so much for this paper and the syphilis poem had to go."
#30 Sep 23 2010 at 7:15 PM Rating: Decent
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UnknownSoldier wrote:
Just posted another tally I just finished. Kind of evident now that it's an online/recently online count of players. I'll probably drop a last one tomorrow morning.

Are you manualy collecting the results, or did you find a way with API or somethign this guy mentioned earlier?

As for the the off topic statistical theme, 99% of all statistics are made up.
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#31 Sep 23 2010 at 7:26 PM Rating: Decent
Edited by bsphil
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Hulan wrote:
There is a prize behind one of three doors; you choose one door and the announcer opens another, asking if you want to change your choice, what do you do? What are the probabilities that the prize is behind the door you chose and the other door?
You ALWAYS change doors! 2/3rds chance of winning if you change!

To cut the monty hall dilemma off at the legs before it can get moving: imagine 1,000,000 doors. You pick a door, then 999,998 doors are opened revealing nothing, and your door and one other door are still closed. Should you switch?


Edited, Sep 23rd 2010 8:34pm by bsphil
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His Excellency Aethien wrote:
Almalieque wrote:
If no one debated with me, then I wouldn't post here anymore.
Take the hint guys, please take the hint.
gbaji wrote:
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#32 Sep 23 2010 at 7:34 PM Rating: Decent
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UnknownSoldier wrote:
Just posted another tally I just finished. Kind of evident now that it's an online/recently online count of players. I'll probably drop a last one tomorrow morning.


I'm not sure how accurate these are. My brother has been online for a while now, and I search his name in the lodestone and have yet to see his character pop up. I know this is only one toon, but maybe there is a lvl req before you show up? Or maybe the lodestone doesn't show online players, but it slowly adds players into the database after they log a certain amount of hours. I'm not sure.
#33 Sep 23 2010 at 7:51 PM Rating: Decent
Azimov wrote:
UnknownSoldier wrote:
Just posted another tally I just finished. Kind of evident now that it's an online/recently online count of players. I'll probably drop a last one tomorrow morning.

Are you manualy collecting the results, or did you find a way with API or somethign this guy mentioned earlier?


Manually. Takes about half an hour with two monitors.
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#34 Sep 23 2010 at 8:05 PM Rating: Excellent
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UnknownSoldier wrote:
Azimov wrote:
UnknownSoldier wrote:
Just posted another tally I just finished. Kind of evident now that it's an online/recently online count of players. I'll probably drop a last one tomorrow morning.

Are you manualy collecting the results, or did you find a way with API or somethign this guy mentioned earlier?


Manually. Takes about half an hour with two monitors.

Here's a quick hint, I worked on parsing the URL a bit yesterday, but I don't have the initiative to do it myself.

The base URL looks like this:
http://lodestone.finalfantasyxiv.com/rc/search/search?tgt=&q=&cms=&cw=

Where http://lodestone.finalfantasyxiv.com/rc/search/search? is the base URL and the tgt=&q=&cms=&cw= are flags for various searches.

  • tgt= is the type of search. The only acceptable values are 77 (player search) and 10 (blog search)
  • q= is the standard search keywords, for players, it would be the player name, for blogs it would be content.
  • cms= is a flag used for just player searches, and represents the player's current Discipline (indexed from 1 = unspecified)
  • cw= is the server to search (indexed from 1 = unspecified)

  • I'm not sure if this would help you or not, although I find just fiddling with the numbers to go much faster than fiddling with dropboxes.

    Edited, Sep 23rd 2010 10:07pm by Hulan
    #35 Sep 23 2010 at 8:52 PM Rating: Good
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    KaneKitty wrote:
    Hulan wrote:
    There is a prize behind one of three doors; you choose one door and the announcer opens another, asking if you want to change your choice, what do you do? What are the probabilities that the prize is behind the door you chose and the other door?


    I think most of us took elementary statistics enough to know about the Monty Hall problem! Although I would love to see an argument about it on alla... you sneaky snake, you.

    psssh, fine then, something a little more obscure, arrange these numbers in numerical order by sliding the tiles around the board.

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    #36 Sep 24 2010 at 8:19 AM Rating: Decent
    I was going to do another one this morning, but population counts on classes like Conjurer were over 1000, which is what Lodestone will cap at. Just by skimming over some of the class populations, I'd say total population was easily over 75k, and that's a conservative guess.

    Just goes to show how much more popular this game is over in Japan.
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    #37 Sep 24 2010 at 8:33 AM Rating: Decent
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    UnknownSoldier wrote:
    I was going to do another one this morning, but population counts on classes like Conjurer were over 1000, which is what Lodestone will cap at. Just by skimming over some of the class populations, I'd say total population was easily over 75k, and that's a conservative guess.

    Just goes to show how much more popular this game is over in Japan.


    I don't think the lodestone is in real time. It doesn't just show who is online. My brother played all afternoon yesterday never showed up on lodestone... This morning he there along with 4 other people that have a similar name. I think it is slowly updating all the player bases. Not whoever is online at the time.
    #38 Sep 24 2010 at 8:54 AM Rating: Good
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    Just checked and I (and my wife and a friend who started the evening of the 22nd with us) am now indeed finally showing this morning (didn't last night). Does at least show that I logged off on Fisher last night.
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    #39 Sep 24 2010 at 9:13 AM Rating: Decent
    Mmm, so it might be slowly updating.

    My character finally showed up and I haven't played it since CE launch day (been busy). I'd love to do this again the day before the SE release, but it's a pain with Lodestone capping at 1000.
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    #40 Sep 24 2010 at 9:23 AM Rating: Decent
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    I know for a fact that players are not showing up immediately unless they log in at least once. Some members of my guild still don't show up anywhere since they have not been on the Lodestone at all.

    I would take these stats with a grain of rock salt.
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    #41 Sep 24 2010 at 9:35 AM Rating: Decent
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    UnknownSoldier wrote:
    Mmm, so it might be slowly updating.

    My character finally showed up and I haven't played it since CE launch day (been busy). I'd love to do this again the day before the SE release, but it's a pain with Lodestone capping at 1000.


    Is it possible that they show up on lodestone once they reach a certain lvl? I mean my brother got over physical lvl 10 yesterday. Might be a coincidence though.
    #42 Sep 24 2010 at 9:35 AM Rating: Good
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    KindjalFerrer wrote:

    I know for a fact that players are not showing up immediately unless they log in at least once. Some members of my guild still don't show up anywhere since they have not been on the Lodestone at all.

    I would take these stats with a grain of rock salt.

    Logging in might hasten the process, but I hadn't logged in until after I was already showing up. Delays or no delays, it's still a reasonable way of getting an idea of server populations (even if it's out of date information). It would be nice if they had an image that was able to include the last outfit your data was captured with or something, that white miqo'te top just isn't flattering on me. ;)
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    #43 Sep 24 2010 at 9:45 AM Rating: Good
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    KindjalFerrer wrote:

    I know for a fact that players are not showing up immediately unless they log in at least once. Some members of my guild still don't show up anywhere since they have not been on the Lodestone at all.

    I would take these stats with a grain of rock salt.

    It may be a conservative estimate of the population, but because it is conservative, it is an admissible heuristic for estimating the population. The population will always be greater than the number of people showing on that search, so it's still a valuable tool for estimating server populations.
    #44 Sep 24 2010 at 10:11 AM Rating: Decent
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    Oh, of cause, i did not mean to imply these stats are useless. Just wanted to point out the fact that there seems to be some update lag.

    Good job and very interessting stats.
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