i wouldn't be worried about having trouble logging in. some of the starting servers (figaro for one) is no longer listed as joinable, my guess its full.
as for server crashes. i also doubt those will happen atleast on some. i expect login server crashes
They re-open as others fill up.
Figaro was closed for hours last week when I got the game on Wed or Thur. It was also closed again by the time my wife made her character on Fri night, then she got in late on Friday. Erased that character to redo the looks and in that time Figaro closed again. She got back in on Sunday.
Selbina is another high traffic one, due to the FFXI connection.