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Thinking about the market 6 months down the lineFollow

#1 Oct 11 2010 at 1:48 AM Rating: Decent
14 posts
At the moment, the mid-level crafters are creating a fairly small supply to meet the high demand for gear for the teens and early twenties. Gear in those ranges tends to be pretty costly since almost everyone needs it but only a few can make it, or make the harder parts necessary for it.

But how will the market shift over time? Lets not go into auction house or bazaar change discussion, let's assume that some sort of reasonable market system is in place so things are findable by people who need them.

Moving forward we'll have our first waves of people with one or two crafts at or near the caps, gatherers at the caps able to get the materials and players with War/Magic jobs at the caps. What will the distribution of demand be? If you've gotten Carpentry to 50, for example, what will you be making? HQ gear for lowbies and other people who reached the cap with a job but are trying out something new?

People level at all different paces and this game rewards switching around so the level distribution stands to be rather a bit wider, I imagine, but will there always be people around making Bronze Hatchet Heads for profit, or will we run into a point where these parts are "below" the crafters enough that no one really wants to make them except as a special order?

On the other hand, gear doesn't wear out or bind in this game that I'm aware of, so there may be Bronze Hatchets floating around, switching hands as gatherers pass through their teens and then outgrow the tools, giving them away or selling them on the cheap to people who need them.

Though the lack of "binding" or other mechanics that would make armor "single use" seems to be countered somewhat in that some gear is made from a lower level version combined with other materials to get the next iteration. The repair system though would insure there's always work for crafters even if the market's flooded with equipment, though I think that mechanic might need a little work too, since it seems to be kind of a hassle to find a crafter to fix your stuff if you can't do it yourself. Though if there's a repair wing to the sorted bazaars they're talking about I could see that working out.

I guess it interests me to think about how this market's likely to play out, dependent on the thrust of the player base and the mechanics we're given to work with as it is.
#2 Oct 11 2010 at 9:53 AM Rating: Good
2,535 posts
Errickfoxy wrote:
Though the lack of "binding" or other mechanics that would make armor "single use" seems to be countered somewhat in that some gear is made from a lower level version combined with other materials to get the next iteration.

One would think, but on the other hand, in FFXI this didn't stop the Haubergeon from dropping in price below the Damascus Ingot used to make it.
#3 Oct 11 2010 at 10:08 AM Rating: Excellent
106 posts
Without BoE equipment it's practically inevitable that you will reach a point where crafting non-consumables is no longer profitable. The supply will simply outpace the demand over time. Using lower rank items as an ingredient to make higher rank items will slow this down a little, but it won't stop it.

This is slightly OT, but the other thing that I have noticed is that it's very easy to bring new gil into the game, but there are very, very few sinks right now. Even in the teens doing rank 20 leves, it's nothing to make 100-150k gil just doing all 8 regional leves and vendoring stuff that you picked up along the way. Of that gil almost all of it that i spend goes to other players and not to NPCs and out of the economy. I can only think of 3 gil-sinks that i ever use and those are NPC item repairs (which i rarely use and only for cheap stuff), synthesis support (fairly cheap), and buying arrows (which only applies to one class and likely won't be viable at higher levels). Given this, i think we are going to see some really crazy inflation until they add some sort of gil-sinks.

Edited, Oct 11th 2010 12:35pm by Izuul
#4 Oct 11 2010 at 12:10 PM Rating: Decent
26 posts
For the gil sink, there's also the tax on the bazaar. I don't know if that's enough tho.
#5 Oct 11 2010 at 12:50 PM Rating: Excellent
106 posts
Yeah, there is the bazaar tax although they are talking about negating some of that with the new market ward structure.
#6 Oct 11 2010 at 1:01 PM Rating: Decent
15 posts
Right now anything sold in the market wards has a 5% tax and anywhere else is 10%. It seems they will make it only if an item is sold in the correct market ward will the tax be 5%. Everywhere else, including wrong market wards, will be 10%.

This tax is probably the biggest gil sink and it's not that big.

Also to add, the repair system may prevent some gear from being passed around. Since you cannot trade or sell damaged equip, some people may not find it worth the time to find someone to repair something and instead will throw it in the retainer. The will somewhat take it out of the system.

So, the conclusion so far of this thread is that we will see a steady but noticeable inflation because there is more gil coming in than leaving?
#7 Oct 11 2010 at 3:38 PM Rating: Decent
14 posts
The only other thing I can think of is the bazaar stall fee, but that's piddling. I cant imagine airship or chocobo rides or whatever sort of things we'll get in that vein as being a significant draw on the gil supply either.

Then again you don't want too heavy a gil sink early in the game when there isn't any gil to go around yet. I wonder if maybe there'll be some sinks in the company system, which I gotta wonder about. With the strong focus on player crafting and interaction, I wonder if these companies will be more than questing organizations. Maybe have company shops or be able to take crafting orders from other players. There's room for gil sinks in there, I think.

My concern was more with the availability of the parts that are of higher rank, used in lower level finished items, that I can't really see the endgame crafters having any reason to bother with other than out of kindness.
#8 Oct 11 2010 at 4:01 PM Rating: Good
429 posts
Seeing as how the current content is limited... we don't know what gil sinks we'll have.

With repair, we may get a huge amount of gil skins for high level item repairs. FFXI also required flat out gil fees to do some end game activities, so that might not be out of the question. Other MMOs like Aion require a hefty money contribution to get some end game items or to do PVP.
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