Given Square-Enix's customer service up to this point, I do not think it is a far-fetched scenario.
Myself, I did not enjoy the beta and hadn't planned to pick up the game. However, a few friends did anyway and I caved and ordered a copy. One of them had given me a buddy pass so I wouldn't get far behind while waiting for my retail copy to arrive. Once it arrived, I attempted to register my retail to my copy, and it set it up as a second FFXIV account / service option (near as I can tell from my experience, Buddy Passes are non-expiring, full licenses to the game; just a side FYI). I contacted customer service and asked them if there was a way to "merge" the accounts, as I didn't want to face future problems, and had a Rank 10 THM on the "buddy pass" account already.
Their first solution: They sent me a link to a form to "Transfer your BETA character to Retail."
Nope, not it.
Their second solution: They sent me an email with a link to another form, stating that if I filled this form out in detail, they would happily provide me a new CD key. Wait... what? I already have two keys and want to go down to one; a third CD key, while a generous offer (?), was not helpful for my situation. Their third response, after again explaining the problem to them: We cannot handle this via email, please call us. So I give them a call while on a break at the office, and they again tell me they can help me "get a new CD key to replace my last one."
After two days of dealing with their ineptitude, I decided starting over and re-leveling to THM 10 was a much simpler solution than to continue to try and get a worthwhile response from their ****-poor customer service.
Regarding the "credibility" of the original post; what is there not to believe? Square themselves essentially said in their lodestone post -- if you have been playing a THM or CONJ in a group and healing, you will be banned.
You do realize the absurdity of that logic, correct? I didn't even know the lodestone existed until after that issue was already fixed. With a game like FFXIV, you are probably ballparking 30% of your customers actually reading the forums (that, of course, is a made-up statistic, based off the fact that I know 4 people who tried FFXIV and I am the only one who read any forums for it; I am padding the number in SE's favor). The large casual base? Many of whom probably did not play beta? They're a healer in a group -- exactly what do you expect them to do? They are going to heal, of course. And if they haven't played any other classes, how are they to know if their rate of skill gains is above or below normal? In fact, had Square not just said they made it easier to gain skills?
There is a significant problem with blindly categorizing all "exploits" in the same light: Certainly, some exploits are intentionally designed (WoW players: KITE TO VAEL'S ROOM wut). However -- "you pressed your the primary button for your class, you dirty jerk." sounds like a rather silly statement of guilt, does it not?