I was wondering if anybody had actually obtained any of the training manuals yet for specific crafting types (spinning training, tailoring training, etc.).
I'm guessing that the reason my synthesis success rate is so high during leves is because the specific training is not required, much like the shards and crystals.
This would also go great lengths to explain why the order of rank of crafting recipes seems to be in a strange order (with low rank recipes required rare materials); because until you're high enough rank to obtain training manuals using guild marks the game simply doesn't expect you to craft anything yourself.
I've not been enjoying crafting for a while, but these theories has gone some way to alleviate my frustration.
If anybody could confirm a spike in success rate upon the acquisition of such manuals, I think we may have solved the great FFXIV crafting issue.