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Synthesis: Now it works, now it doesnt?Follow

#1 Oct 20 2010 at 1:50 PM Rating: Decent
I've gotten alchemy to almost 24 now, and I'm working on cooking (almost 22) and I've noticed what is becoming a frequent occurrence. I will successfully complete a synth say, 10 times, with relative ease. The next 10 (same synth with slightly more gear durability loss) will all be horrific fails. I have decent crafting gear (including up to date tools), I understand how crafting works (ie. I'm not spamming rapid regardless of orb color then going "duh.. um. why did I broke this?"), and I use support either when it's recommended, or for synths I know are my level or higher.

I haven't accounted for moon phase. Could it make that big a difference? Even if it did, my sessions are continuous, 50 synths at a time. I think I can rule that out.

According to the Eorzea Clock Gadget I have on my desktop, there is an hourly element. Is this something I should watch out for?

I'm physical level 37, so I have a fair amount of element attribute points. Currently they're divided evenly among all elements. Speaking of attributes, I think I'm fairly well set up with my 'attribute points'. High 70's in dex. and piety for fishing, 50 something vitality, and 75 int. for alchemy and conjurer, and my mind is in the 60's.

Outside of the controllable factors I mentioned above, I know the game, crafting in this instance, might not be working exactly as intended by the developers. Ha! "Might not" I say.

Anyway, has anyone else noticed this? Am I missing something? Is it just dumb luck? I crafted in FFXI (yes I know, different game) and I've had bad luck, but this is like swishing 10 free throws on a basketball court, and then completely missing the backboard on the next 10.

-- Edit --

It seems that while I was writing this post out of frustration on my 6th failed synth in a row, the 'fail bubble' has passed, for now.

Edited, Oct 20th 2010 3:53pm by mattkujata
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#2 Oct 20 2010 at 3:21 PM Rating: Decent
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This happens to me sometimes, then I realize ive been spamming standard on synths for about 4 hours watching movies...and my gear is broken ^^
#3 Oct 20 2010 at 3:52 PM Rating: Good
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ArkansawTalvael wrote:
This happens to me sometimes, then I realize ive been spamming standard on synths for about 4 hours watching movies...and my gear is broken ^^

Ditto lmao
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#4 Oct 20 2010 at 5:25 PM Rating: Decent
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It's broken. It's poorly tuned right now. SE has been hammering crafting with the nerf bat lately and only recently did they say they're changing it with an upcoming patch so that completing synthesis recipes at or below your present rank should be easier.
#5 Oct 20 2010 at 7:59 PM Rating: Decent
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I heard that the patch makes Onyxia use Deep Breath more often, too.

People are not good judges of the occurrence of random events. We have a tendency to notice clusters and ascribe them to various causes which aren't actually affecting anything.

On the other hand, crafting is a difficult activity to analyze from results alone, because it's not a single pass/fail event; it's a series of random events, but not independent ones. We don't really have a grasp of the mechanics that determine what kind of orb shows up, how likely our skills are to be available at any one time, or the particular probabilities involved. It's entirely possible that some sort of environmental effect could make you fail crafts, not by lowering your chances of success outright, but by making unfavorable crafting conditions appear more often, or promoting the chance of elemental instability, or reducing the chance that your skills will become available for use. (Or it could just be a thumb on the "did it work?" scale...) Time of day, conditions, gear... well, we're pretty sure gear has a solid effect (or more like, it had better!)

It would take a tremendous data set in order to analyze what was going on, statistically speaking.
#6 Oct 20 2010 at 10:36 PM Rating: Good
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I get this on a regular occurrence. What I have been doing not to avoid it is I stand up and sit back down. Seems to work for the first 2 synths. Then it goes back to Fail Mode. I posted about this about a week ago... I think its buggy. If the crafting system is another way to level then why do they auto-fail you? I don't see beating the same Guildleve on my Gladiator then all of a sudden that same difficulty Guildleve another day kicks my **** for no reason...

Another Post

When you do nothing but craft, your mind will start to see patterns. Trust me, this has to be a bug.

Quote from lodestone.
Quote:
Q. What kind of changes are planned for synthesis?
A. The late-November patch will see adjustments to the required ranks and difficulty levels of various existing recipes, ensuring that players will have a better chance to successfully create items when reaching the optimal skill level.

For the mid-December update, we will be adding several new recipes, including ones for crafting new gear. In addition, we will be introducing a new feature that will allow players to select recipes from a list of recently crafted items and recipes learned through levequests, and set all of the appropriate ingredients with the touch of a single button, thus making repeated synthesis of a single item a snap!
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#7 Oct 20 2010 at 11:39 PM Rating: Decent
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AvatarexADV wrote:
I heard that the patch makes Onyxia use Deep Breath more often, too.

People are not good judges of the occurrence of random events. We have a tendency to notice clusters and ascribe them to various causes which aren't actually affecting anything.


It's not random events. When the game first launched, the maximum durability loss from a failed standard synthesis was 20. It's now at least 28. That's not counting lost durability from standard synthesis on an unstable/chaotic element. Also, maximum lost durability on a neutral standard synthesis result seemed to be about 10 at CE launch. I had one tonight that was 18 (20 progress gained, 18 durability lost, 3 quality gained). And keep in mind that all I really did for the first couple of weeks was craft like a madman including blasting Alchemy to rank 10 on day two of CE service. That in of itself was ~200 synths. By the end of the first weekend of CE service, I had taken all DoH classes (except cooking) to at least rank 10 (I wanted all of the rank 10 abilities). That's a perfectly adequate sample size to be able to speak to maximum durability loss from Standard Synthesis prior to the nerfs.

Shortly after (I believe it was the first Monday after CE launch) there was a maintenance. During that maintenance, they nerfed rapid synthesis and two days after they did another maintenance where the patch notes clearly indicated that the purpose of the maintenance was to correct an issue with Standard Synthesis causing a higher rate of failure than they intended. Last week they nerfed Standard Synthesis again.

When I sit down with the idea in mind to rank up armorer, I don't just do 10-15 synths. I synth 8 batches of wire and convert that wire (96 total) into rings and I've been doing that as my mainstay synth through bronze and into iron from rank 16 to rank 25. I've got the experience. I've seen the changes. It's not a one-off observation after a half dozen frustrating synth attempts during the wrong moon phase with a goobbue **** lingering in the air.

SE has bludgeoned synthesis from CE launch up until today, and they realize it. That's why they've announced pending changes to make it easier to succeed with recipes at or below your current rank...because it's broken. Horribly so. I just hope they can fix it faster than they broke it because most of my time in game is spent crafting and if I have to wait until the end of November, I'm probably not going to be around to see the changes take effect.

Edited, Oct 20th 2010 10:40pm by Aurelius
#8 Oct 20 2010 at 11:46 PM Rating: Good
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To be fair, it has always been broken. At CE launch, people could spam rapid all day long, and get to rank 10 easily. There will be a time when it's all settled down, but i don't think people will like it.
I seriously doubt that SE wanted you to be rank 20 anything in the first month.
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#9 Oct 21 2010 at 12:05 AM Rating: Decent
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Teneleven wrote:
To be fair, it has always been broken. At CE launch, people could spam rapid all day long, and get to rank 10 easily. There will be a time when it's all settled down, but i don't think people will like it.
I seriously doubt that SE wanted you to be rank 20 anything in the first month.


I was never one of those people who used the rapid spam technique. I always thought it was cheezy and lame and I wanted to learn how to craft "properly" from the beginning. The thing that SE doesn't appear to be able to grasp is that the #1 question that they need to ask themselves with every single change to the game is, "Will this still be fun?" They don't seem to do that. They seem to see a problem and implement the first solution that comes to mind with little or no thought to what alternatives they could come up with that would achieve the same result without having a negative impact on their players.

If the idea was that people were progressing too fast with crafting, a far superior alternative would have been to release a blurb saying that they felt it was possible to advance through crafting ranks/physical levels too quickly with the way the crafting system was currently tuned and as a result they were going to be reducing the amount of skill points/exp gained from successful synthesis results, including gains from local levequests. It would have ****** some people off, but they probably would have gotten over it. Instead (assuming progression rate was the issue) they ruined a lot of the fun in crafting and ****** people off anyways, only instead of being mad at SE for ruining their xp rocketship, they're mad at SE for being underhanded bastards and stealth nerfing something to the point where it's gone from a fun and reasonably challenging mini-game to a dismal chore.

On the other hand, if SE felt that crafters were producing too many goods and it would have had a negative impact on the economy, they could have focused their attention on the formulas that come into play when you're making something with a recipe above your current rank. Alternatively, they could have reduced the yield from certain select recipes. There are all kinds of things SE could have done without directly attacking the nature of the crafting mini-game itself.

My understanding was that guildleves were supposed to be the fun, casual way for players to just kind of bomb around and earn some rewards above and beyond the standard grind. I just did my first rank 20 battlecraft leves tonight. I did one as a 16 THM and had no difficulty. And since one of those battlecraft leves offered close to 1k guild marks for gladiator (my intended main class once I get the sub-class ability stuff sorted), I even did one as a rank 13 gladiator. It was fun. It was just challenging enough on one star at rank 13 that I couldn't just run into the pack of 9 dodos flailing about and unleashing ****, but not so taxing that I felt it wasn't something I'd want to do on a regular basis. I can do a battlecraft leve 7 ranks below the recommendation but a local leve where I'm five ranks above the recommendation is still a hit-or-miss affair.

That's just not right.
#10 Oct 21 2010 at 12:18 AM Rating: Good
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Aurelius wrote:
Teneleven wrote:
To be fair, it has always been broken. At CE launch, people could spam rapid all day long, and get to rank 10 easily. There will be a time when it's all settled down, but i don't think people will like it.
I seriously doubt that SE wanted you to be rank 20 anything in the first month.


I was never one of those people who used the rapid spam technique. I always thought it was cheezy and lame and I wanted to learn how to craft "properly" from the beginning. The thing that SE doesn't appear to be able to grasp is that the #1 question that they need to ask themselves with every single change to the game is, "Will this still be fun?" They don't seem to do that. They seem to see a problem and implement the first solution that comes to mind with little or no thought to what alternatives they could come up with that would achieve the same result without having a negative impact on their players.

If the idea was that people were progressing too fast with crafting, a far superior alternative would have been to release a blurb saying that they felt it was possible to advance through crafting ranks/physical levels too quickly with the way the crafting system was currently tuned and as a result they were going to be reducing the amount of skill points/exp gained from successful synthesis results, including gains from local levequests. It would have ****** some people off, but they probably would have gotten over it. Instead (assuming progression rate was the issue) they ruined a lot of the fun in crafting and ****** people off anyways, only instead of being mad at SE for ruining their xp rocketship, they're mad at SE for being underhanded bastards and stealth nerfing something to the point where it's gone from a fun and reasonably challenging mini-game to a dismal chore.

On the other hand, if SE felt that crafters were producing too many goods and it would have had a negative impact on the economy, they could have focused their attention on the formulas that come into play when you're making something with a recipe above your current rank. Alternatively, they could have reduced the yield from certain select recipes. There are all kinds of things SE could have done without directly attacking the nature of the crafting mini-game itself.

My understanding was that guildleves were supposed to be the fun, casual way for players to just kind of bomb around and earn some rewards above and beyond the standard grind. I just did my first rank 20 battlecraft leves tonight. I did one as a 16 THM and had no difficulty. And since one of those battlecraft leves offered close to 1k guild marks for gladiator (my intended main class once I get the sub-class ability stuff sorted), I even did one as a rank 13 gladiator. It was fun. It was just challenging enough on one star at rank 13 that I couldn't just run into the pack of 9 dodos flailing about and unleashing ****, but not so taxing that I felt it wasn't something I'd want to do on a regular basis. I can do a battlecraft leve 7 ranks below the recommendation but a local leve where I'm five ranks above the recommendation is still a hit-or-miss affair.

That's just not right.


I'm not disputing that. Although, my crafting experience has been a little different. I don't ever fail any synths that are within 1 level of my rank. I'm only like rank8 gold smithing, but my success / failure rate is like 99/1.
I'm sure this changes as you advance in rank, but this wasn't my point.
Crafting can never be as balanced as fighting jobs. If you could easily craft things 7 levels above your rank, the market would be flooded with gear, and nobody would make money. The economy rules the crafting balance, not game difficulty.

But, you absolutely right with the leve's. Those shouldn't be so wishy washy. The game needs tweaking for sure. Someday, we will have this duiscussion again, but it will be, "Remember when...?".
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