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Synthesis: Direction faced & Sucess factor; Prelim ResearchFollow

#1 Oct 21 2010 at 1:51 PM Rating: Decent
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Preamble
Anyone who has played FFXI, and who crafted, is likely familiar with how facing a certain direction affected synthesis. There was a direction to face for HQing, one for Skilling, etc, depending on the type of crystal you used. Much research was done by players in regards to this, and generally it was accepted that yes, the direction you faced could affect your synthesis.

Hypothesis
To create a preliminary expermiment to determine if there is a potential for the direction you face in FFXIV impacting your success/fail rate as it did in FFXI. If the preliminary result shows a directional relationship, the experiment must have allowance to be built on further.

Experiment
To attempt three alchemy synthesis for each direction(NSEW) of animal glue using the "Standard - Wait - Standard"(1) method on the following recipe.
2x Water Shard 2x Fire Shard
1 x Bone Chip
1 x sheep leather Spetch
1 x Muddy Water


To obtain and compare the following information: Total Botched Sythesis, Times standard attempt preformed & Succeeded vs Failed for each sythesis

1. The standard-wait-standard method of synthesis can be best summed up as; opening with Standard synthesis, using the wait command to let material settle, then using standard again, and repeating till the synth is complete


Conditions
Level of Experminter: Alchemist Rank 9 - Physical Level 16
Weather: Cloudy
Clothes Worn: None but Underwear
Alchemist Tools used: Weathered Alembic(Primary)
City: Limsa, West Hawkers

Results
Note: This should be known already if you are reading this: Total Attempts made varies, despite there being only 3 complete synth attempts, because of the variance nature of each success/fail giving a random percent completion boost on the total Item attempt

Direction Faced: NORTH

Botched Sythesis: 0/3
Attempts Successful: 14/18 (77%)
Attempts Failed: 4/18 (22%)
Ratio: 1 Fail Per 3.5 Attempts

Direction Faced: EAST

Botched Sythesis: 0/3
Attempts Successful: 15/20 (75%)
Attempts Failed: 5/20 (25%)
Ratio: 1 Fail per 3 Attempts

Direction Faced: SOUTH

Botched Sythesis: 0/3
Attempts Successful: 14/21 (66%)
Attempts Failed: 7/21 (33%)
Ratio: 1 Fail per 2 Attempts

Direction Faced: WEST

Botched Sythesis: 0/3
Attempts Successful: 16/20 (80%)
Attempts Failed: 4/20 (20%)
Ratio: 1 Fail per 4 Attempts.


Conclusion
It is my opinion, based on the evidence presented above that the direction faced does not have any bearing on the likeliehood of a synthesis failing or suceeding. The variations of ratio that appear to suggest the contrary can be explained by the extremely small sample size used. I will also admit that further testing/statistical gathering, with a MUCH larger sample size is required to prove further this conclusion.

Limitations/Problems
Outside of the small sample size, it is possible for other factors to have influenced this expermient and sythesising as a whole. Such potential influencers could be: Moon phase, Weather, Day of the week, Area Synthesised in. Also this only tested one craft, although highly unlikely it is possible for direction to have an influence on some of the other crafting jobs.

Usage
Feel free to use/build upon or distribute this research as long as credit is given where credit is due (Autor: Midou Lii, Sanctuary of Zitah, Bodhum)






Edited, Oct 21st 2010 3:52pm by MidouSan
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#2 Oct 21 2010 at 1:58 PM Rating: Decent
Well that was a very well thought out and written post....Butdo you really think with all the problems XIV currently has and they are trying to fix.That they have Direction Synthing implemented we cant even sort our inventory yet?
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#3 Oct 21 2010 at 2:16 PM Rating: Decent
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oh man.. this is going to be a tough topic to figure out....

There are so many factors that go into this sort of stuff....

Really the only way to do something like this is to compose a spreadsheet of a ton of data with sections for each variable... so you'll have "Crystal", "Deviation from Skill req. of Synth", "Moon Phase", "Time of Day", "Weather", "Direction Faced", "Tool used", "Craftsmanship rank", "Mag. Craftsmanship".

Not to mention the variability of using the different crafting options, Standard, rapid, bold, wait...

I'll be honest, I think this will require far too much research to actual come to a undisputed conclusion : (

In FFXI this process was much easier.. they've introduced far too many variables for this to be empirically proven...
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#4 Oct 21 2010 at 2:25 PM Rating: Default
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MaverickBG wrote:
oh man.. this is going to be a tough topic to figure out....

There are so many factors that go into this sort of stuff....
[...]
Not to mention the variability of using the different crafting options, Standard, rapid, bold, wait...

I'll be honest, I think this will require far too much research to actual come to a undisputed conclusion : (

In FFXI this process was much easier.. they've introduced far too many variables for this to be empirically proven...


Technically its possible, its just going to require a mountain of data, which is gonna require someone with a mountain of cash to execute the experiment to get the data. I just figured id get the ball rolling with a preliminary experiment.
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#5 Oct 21 2010 at 2:36 PM Rating: Decent
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While I think it's possible that they implemented directional crafting, I don't think it's likely. Considering how many things are missing in this game already, and the various bugs, lag, etc. involved, this would just add more problems to an already difficult game.

That being said, in order to collect sufficient data, wouldn't you have to continually attempt lower level synths, mid-level, and high-level synths on a character that could stay constant in a craft skill? Granted that would be impossible since you receive exp in that crafting skill, every-time you try to synth. So eventually your mid-level would become low-level, and high-level to mid, etc. etc.

Or would it just be easier to pick something like Distilled Water to test out with alchemy, since it's the easiest synth, requires only fire shards, and the muddy water you can buy off a vendor. Although I do know the level of the craft plays the biggest factor for 1-20, and I THINK having the books + guild support plays an even bigger role beyond that.

But who knows... this is SE after all.
#6 Oct 21 2010 at 2:56 PM Rating: Decent
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In 11 you could try to relate the different elements to the points on a compass, and since you used 1 crystal to synth you could try to match them up. But many synths in 14 use 2 or more different elements in their crystal/shards.

It does drive me nuts that one day I can synth several times the same item rather easily, then the next I have almost total failure on every attempt of the same synth under nearly identical circumstances.

Edited, Oct 21st 2010 4:00pm by Carthoris
#7 Oct 21 2010 at 3:19 PM Rating: Decent
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MidouSan wrote:
Preamble
Anyone who has played FFXI, and who crafted, is likely familiar with how facing a certain direction affected synthesis. There was a direction to face for HQing, one for Skilling, etc, depending on the type of crystal you used. Much research was done by players in regards to this, and generally it was accepted that yes, the direction you faced could affect your synthesis.

Hypothesis
To create a preliminary expermiment to determine if there is a potential for the direction you face in FFXIV impacting your success/fail rate as it did in FFXI. If the preliminary result shows a directional relationship, the experiment must have allowance to be built on further.

Experiment
To attempt three alchemy synthesis for each direction(NSEW) of animal glue using the "Standard - Wait - Standard"(1) method on the following recipe.
2x Water Shard 2x Fire Shard
1 x Bone Chip
1 x sheep leather Spetch
1 x Muddy Water


To obtain and compare the following information: Total Botched Sythesis, Times standard attempt preformed & Succeeded vs Failed for each sythesis

1. The standard-wait-standard method of synthesis can be best summed up as; opening with Standard synthesis, using the wait command to let material settle, then using standard again, and repeating till the synth is complete


Conditions
Level of Experminter: Alchemist Rank 9 - Physical Level 16
Weather: Cloudy
Clothes Worn: None but Underwear
Alchemist Tools used: Weathered Alembic(Primary)
City: Limsa, West Hawkers

Results
Note: This should be known already if you are reading this: Total Attempts made varies, despite there being only 3 complete synth attempts, because of the variance nature of each success/fail giving a random percent completion boost on the total Item attempt

Direction Faced: NORTH

Botched Sythesis: 0/3
Attempts Successful: 14/18 (77%)
Attempts Failed: 4/18 (22%)
Ratio: 1 Fail Per 3.5 Attempts

Direction Faced: EAST

Botched Sythesis: 0/3
Attempts Successful: 15/20 (75%)
Attempts Failed: 5/20 (25%)
Ratio: 1 Fail per 3 Attempts

Direction Faced: SOUTH

Botched Sythesis: 0/3
Attempts Successful: 14/21 (66%)
Attempts Failed: 7/21 (33%)
Ratio: 1 Fail per 2 Attempts

Direction Faced: WEST

Botched Sythesis: 0/3
Attempts Successful: 16/20 (80%)
Attempts Failed: 4/20 (20%)
Ratio: 1 Fail per 4 Attempts.


Conclusion
It is my opinion, based on the evidence presented above that the direction faced does not have any bearing on the likeliehood of a synthesis failing or suceeding. The variations of ratio that appear to suggest the contrary can be explained by the extremely small sample size used. I will also admit that further testing/statistical gathering, with a MUCH larger sample size is required to prove further this conclusion.

Limitations/Problems
Outside of the small sample size, it is possible for other factors to have influenced this expermient and sythesising as a whole. Such potential influencers could be: Moon phase, Weather, Day of the week, Area Synthesised in. Also this only tested one craft, although highly unlikely it is possible for direction to have an influence on some of the other crafting jobs.

Usage
Feel free to use/build upon or distribute this research as long as credit is given where credit is due (Autor: Midou Lii, Sanctuary of Zitah, Bodhum)






Edited, Oct 21st 2010 3:52pm by MidouSan



ok so i read this and thought to myself its ffxi all over again.

great work on the research and good info for beginning to get threads like this moving.

I am of the personal belief of craft your brains out and be smart about mat prices and shard cost
and u'll make moolah.

I was a very veteran crafter on fairy for smithing in xi and always always random crafted in such multitude
that direction, moon, or continent blah blah blah didn't matter.

Its a game of random numbers and luck i have concluded with no evidence to provide. I guess I was lucky
anywho great post rate up i thought some sarcasm was in order.
#8 Oct 21 2010 at 3:30 PM Rating: Decent
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Yes, I suppose it is possible to test it.

As for "don't you level up as you synth" question.. thats true- however, thats where the benefit of a "Community" comes into place... This sort of research is pretty much impossible for one person to do on their own.. you will need a group of people who can test all of these things out and are willing to record and submit their results...

I have a feeling this sort of research will become important when people reach R50 on their crafts, and are trying to figure out a way to increase their HQ rate on a specific item that is highly sought after...

This will make the item consistent, the crafting level and recipe req. equal for everyone as well as the crystal being used etc.. and I would imagine there will be a point at which everyone is using the "best" crafting tools (or atleast there will be a dominant tool used)

At that point, many of the variables are removed, and you will be left with the moon, weather, direction... which will make this type of research much easier to carry out..

Either way, good post- I like reading about this sort of stuff!! and I hope they did implement it!

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#9 Oct 21 2010 at 3:49 PM Rating: Good
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I read in several threads that the direction in which you face while synthing doesn't matter in FFXIV, one was State Alchemist's Alchemy Guide.

But even if that is true there are still many things to figure out. Good work on making a start.^^
#10 Oct 21 2010 at 4:08 PM Rating: Decent
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Definitely a good start, but you would need 100+ attempts under similar conditions to really get some meaningful data.
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#11 Oct 21 2010 at 4:14 PM Rating: Decent
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No I refuse to even read evidence of facing directions. Refuse. I don't want to know if SE made it that superstitious. I think I would cry.
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#12 Oct 21 2010 at 4:46 PM Rating: Good
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MidouSan wrote:
Preamble
Anyone who has played FFXI, and who crafted, is likely familiar with how facing a certain direction affected synthesis. There was a direction to face for HQing, one for Skilling, etc, depending on the type of crystal you used. Much research was done by players in regards to this, and generally it was accepted that yes, the direction you faced could affect your synthesis.


No.

There was NO definitive research done on this, just a bunch of people claiming it based on a constellation map that didn't have anything to do with crafting. Claiming direction had anything to do with synthing success/HQ would get you laughed off of any serious message board. It was not "generally accepted". As a matter of fact the number of people that held this belief were in the VAST minority and they never gave ANY examples of any notable sample size. Most people who actually spent years crafting held the claim of directional crafting meaning anything in the same esteem they held those who claimed to have 'the HQ code'.

Don't start with this hocus pocus nonsense again because someone will believe it in spite of common sense and then we will have to listen to how someone went 4/12 on HQ so it must mean direction means something. I don't want to spend the next 5 years dealing with the Eruntalon's and Quitzatsa's of the world who claim to have secret knowledge of the game only to be uncovered as complete farces later. Nip this in the bud now. Wive's tale. Myth. False.
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#13 Oct 21 2010 at 5:01 PM Rating: Decent
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BarberofSeville wrote:
Nip this in the bud now. Myth. False.


yes.
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When it comes to sitting around not doing anything for long periods of time, only being active for short windows, and marginal changes and sidegrades I'd say FFXI players were the perfect choice for politicians.


#14 Oct 21 2010 at 5:03 PM Rating: Decent
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Olorinus the Vile wrote:
BarberofSeville wrote:
Nip this in the bud now. Myth. False.


yes.


Amen. I just spent longer than I should have checking the FFXI forums for this definitive research that I thought I had missed. It was never proven that direction had any impact.
#15 Oct 21 2010 at 5:32 PM Rating: Good
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Another variable to consider: patron deity and possible elemental influence.
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#16 Oct 21 2010 at 5:33 PM Rating: Decent
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Strummer wrote:
Another variable to consider: patron deity and possible elemental influence.


Se has said that they have not implented patron diety differences yet.
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#17 Oct 21 2010 at 5:47 PM Rating: Default
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I dont think there is an east/west element its NE SE NW SW, unless im missing something on my attribute screen.
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#18 Oct 21 2010 at 9:02 PM Rating: Decent
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BarberofSeville wrote:
MidouSan wrote:
Preamble
Anyone who has played FFXI, and who crafted, is likely familiar with how facing a certain direction affected synthesis. There was a direction to face for HQing, one for Skilling, etc, depending on the type of crystal you used. Much research was done by players in regards to this, and generally it was accepted that yes, the direction you faced could affect your synthesis.


No.

There was NO definitive research done on this, just a bunch of people claiming it based on a constellation map that didn't have anything to do with crafting. Claiming direction had anything to do with synthing success/HQ would get you laughed off of any serious message board. It was not "generally accepted". As a matter of fact the number of people that held this belief were in the VAST minority and they never gave ANY examples of any notable sample size. Most people who actually spent years crafting held the claim of directional crafting meaning anything in the same esteem they held those who claimed to have 'the HQ code'.

Don't start with this hocus pocus nonsense again because someone will believe it in spite of common sense and then we will have to listen to how someone went 4/12 on HQ so it must mean direction means something. I don't want to spend the next 5 years dealing with the Eruntalon's and Quitzatsa's of the world who claim to have secret knowledge of the game only to be uncovered as complete farces later. Nip this in the bud now. Wive's tale. Myth. False.


just because you want it to be a wives tale doesnt mean it is. jumping to that conclusion is just as bad as assuming the elemental wheel/compass does affect things. just saying... assuming its false is just as much a sin as assuming its true. it will take an extremely large ammount of data to confirm or deny this, and until that happens we will just have to wait and see.

also worth noting: from my experience the VAST majority of xi players agreed that moon cycle/direction/time of day DID in fact affect synth, contrary to what you claim. it was just a matter of whether they cared to take the time to configure theyr crafting schedules to these rules for a potential increase in production/hq. its been a good 5+ years since i played xi so i couldnt point to any specific info, but at the time i remember having probably 10+ links on my favorites providing documented evidence confirming these "rumors", many of which were posts here on ZAM. there were always cynics, but to say attempting to unravel some of the mystery behind this would get you laughed off a 'serious' message board is just rediculous. id say you were just as likely to get laughed off the boards by blindly believing it didnt work than did.

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#19 Oct 21 2010 at 9:17 PM Rating: Decent
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Elamille wrote:
BarberofSeville wrote:
MidouSan wrote:
Preamble
Anyone who has played FFXI, and who crafted, is likely familiar with how facing a certain direction affected synthesis. There was a direction to face for HQing, one for Skilling, etc, depending on the type of crystal you used. Much research was done by players in regards to this, and generally it was accepted that yes, the direction you faced could affect your synthesis.


No.

There was NO definitive research done on this, just a bunch of people claiming it based on a constellation map that didn't have anything to do with crafting. Claiming direction had anything to do with synthing success/HQ would get you laughed off of any serious message board. It was not "generally accepted". As a matter of fact the number of people that held this belief were in the VAST minority and they never gave ANY examples of any notable sample size. Most people who actually spent years crafting held the claim of directional crafting meaning anything in the same esteem they held those who claimed to have 'the HQ code'.

Don't start with this hocus pocus nonsense again because someone will believe it in spite of common sense and then we will have to listen to how someone went 4/12 on HQ so it must mean direction means something. I don't want to spend the next 5 years dealing with the Eruntalon's and Quitzatsa's of the world who claim to have secret knowledge of the game only to be uncovered as complete farces later. Nip this in the bud now. Wive's tale. Myth. False.


just because you want it to be a wives tale doesnt mean it is. jumping to that conclusion is just as bad as assuming the elemental wheel/compass does affect things. just saying... assuming its false is just as much a sin as assuming its true. it will take an extremely large ammount of data to confirm or deny this, and until that happens we will just have to wait and see.

also worth noting: from my experience the VAST majority of xi players agreed that moon cycle/direction/time of day DID in fact affect synth, contrary to what you claim. it was just a matter of whether they cared to take the time to configure theyr crafting schedules to these rules for a potential increase in production/hq. its been a good 5+ years since i played xi so i couldnt point to any specific info, but at the time i remember having probably 10+ links on my favorites providing documented evidence confirming these "rumors", many of which were posts here on ZAM. there were always cynics, but to say attempting to unravel some of the mystery behind this would get you laughed off a 'serious' message board is just rediculous. id say you were just as likely to get laughed off the boards by blindly believing it didnt work than did.




Same this was my experience as well. Also I followed it religiously and noticed a difference once I followed it, I also knew of someone who did an experiment similar to the one I preformed, only their datapool was in the hundreds of synthesises, I have no idea where i saw it however as it was half a decade ago.

On a side note, its amusing people are ripping me apart for my PREAMBLE, which is nothing more then a explanation of why I felt it was neccisary to even preform this experiment in the first place. Regardless of whether or not I was right on FFXI is not important, what is important is my research on FFXIV, which so far means you don't have anything to worry about.

Even more amusing that I'm being ripped apart for trying to help the community grow.

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#20 Oct 21 2010 at 10:05 PM Rating: Decent
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I don't think people are ripping you apart, They're just less than happy to have another theoretical problem element thrown into crafting when it already has so many questionable features.

Personally I ignore all the rules, if Squeenix bring out an almanac of year/month/day/weather/patron/direction crafting success I'll still be making what I want when i want - I don't have time for all that other crap, I need to spend another hour in the market wards just finding my materials as it is...
#21 Oct 21 2010 at 10:22 PM Rating: Decent
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MidouSan wrote:

Even more amusing that I'm being ripped apart for trying to help the community grow.



I think your post might have been better received if you had placed your conclusion at the top of the post instead of the bottom. I'm not going to lie...I pride myself on reading through as much of everything as I can before drawing conclusions but by the end of your data reporting I was 95% convinced you were going to say that direction mattered and then I was going to have to leap all over you with a large rock in each hand.

Everything in XIV right now is subject to discussion and debate until the devs eliminate all doubt by making explicit statements about how things work and we all know how infrequently they do that. I'm grateful to them for debunking the whole "red means bold!" ********* but beyond that we're being left to our own devices.

Statistically speaking, a reasonable sample size is 1000. Nobody is going to be doing that kind of testing any time soon because it would be such a **** waste of time when you could be using those synths to skill up. The only way you could do 1000 synths of anything without advancing a rank or two would be to make really low rank recipes on a mid-high rank DoH class. Maybe when someone is rank 50 and/or supremely bored we might be able to see some hard data but ****...1000 synths...that's pretty hardcore.

People like to take the conclusions they draw after doing something for 20 minutes and holding them up as fact. I'm not saying that's what you did because I know you couldn't do that many synths in 20 minutes. I'm speaking in general terms. Then they announce their findings to the rest of the world and most people, being the gullible sheep that they are, believe it. And since they don't really have the acumen to debunk it, at best it turns into a case of someone trying it and, due to the random influence, it doesn't work so they come back and say, "No, you're wrong" and then some other numpty who tried it only (again due to random influences) it seemed to work comes back and says, "No, I just tried it and he's absolutely right."

And that is how misinformation is born.
#22 Oct 21 2010 at 11:16 PM Rating: Decent
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Aurelius wrote:
MidouSan wrote:

Even more amusing that I'm being ripped apart for trying to help the community grow.




Then they announce their findings to the rest of the world and most people, being the gullible sheep that they are, believe it. And since they don't really have the acumen to debunk it, at best it turns into a case of someone trying it and, due to the random influence, it doesn't work so they come back and say, "No, you're wrong" and then some other numpty who tried it only (again due to random influences) it seemed to work comes back and says, "No, I just tried it and he's absolutely right."

And that is how misinformation is born.




It was definately not my intent, nor did I even consider the possiblity of accidentally misinforming people...because..I was writing it from the understanding that the average highest level of education completed among FFXIV players is much higher then, say, WoW players. Because, yeah the sample size is to small, but I figured id just get the ball rolling from someone who spent alot of time in alchemy on XI.

Although you do bring up a good point, perhaps I should have waited for the dev team to have ironed out all the kinks in this game before performing tests such as this. Oh well what's done is done, and if I see anyone using this post as a ZOMFG HERE BE UNDENIABLE UNDISPUTABLE PROOF, I'm going to be sure to wring em around the ears and correct them.
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#23 Oct 22 2010 at 12:51 AM Rating: Decent
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MidouSan wrote:



Same this was my experience as well. Also I followed it religiously and noticed a difference once I followed it, I also knew of someone who did an experiment similar to the one I preformed, only their datapool was in the hundreds of synthesises, I have no idea where i saw it however as it was half a decade ago.





The burden of proof is on the people asserting that some random variable has an impact on an unrelated function. In 8 years nobody has shown anything that remotely backs directional crafting. For every 'friend of a friend who heard someone do 100 synths and it showed that directional crafting worked' there were 200 who showed that 100 synths that had a .6% difference in outcome falls well within the standard deviation of randomness.

As a matter of fact, the directional crafters are split into many different camps and they all argue their way shows "substantial results"

--Those that face strong to the crystal to HQ
--Those that face strong to the day for HQ
--Those that face weak to the day for HQ
--Those that face weak to the crystal for HQ
--Those that face strong to the crystal for success rate
--Those that face strong to the day for success rate
--Those that face weak to the day for success rate
--Those that face weak to the crystal for success rate


I've heard all of these from people who claim they know beyond a shadow of a doubt that it works. Which is funny because if their was such a thing as directional crafting in XI (which their isn't) then most people who subscribe to that theory would actually be HURTING themselves because they are facing the wrong direction.


I could just as easily say that the elemental gear you wear in XI increases your success rate. After all, the guild items all have +elements on them. That is SE's way of giving us a hint that casting bar-fira on ourselves before every smithing synth will give us an advantage right? Now perhaps my theory sounds absurd to you. Perhaps you would like me to provide proof. Nah, I'll just mention it here and before long 5% of the crafting population will take it as truth and perpetuate it for a decade.


Directional crafting came to be because it is human nature to try and control the uncontrollable. Humans hate randomness by default. Well in XIV we don't need silly superstitions like directional crafting because SE has given you a way to control the outcome. Adding gear and tools that give the stats crafters need will help. Unlocking and using the abilities like Preserve and Maker's Muse will help. Using the wait command at the right time will help. Facing NE on windsday during a waxing crescent moon in a zone with double earth weather after casting bar-fira on yourself will not.
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#24 Oct 22 2010 at 1:16 AM Rating: Decent
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The only thing that was known to affect crafting in XI was one's level in respect to what they were trying to synthesis. Everything else was just theory at best.

Edit: I once tried to make an item that capped around LV10 and broke it three times. There was also a time where I was skilling up on an item that was five levels above and ended up hitting HQ 3 times in four synths.

It was all random chance and some people who got lucky started coming up with theories that justified their results. It was just random chance and I've never seen evidence to prove it otherwise.

Same goes for XIV. Unless given solid evidence, in other words, evidence with lots of numbers to back it up and have someone who can then duplicate results such theories will remain as such, just theories.

Edited, Oct 22nd 2010 3:51am by CupDeNoodles
#25 Oct 22 2010 at 3:47 AM Rating: Excellent
To the person karma bombing this thread: Knock it off, or I can stop it for you.
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