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If FFXIV fails...Follow

#1 Oct 29 2010 at 10:14 AM Rating: Good
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As I was sitting on Palmecia last night...the server population was hovering at 850 people. The lowest I have seen since release date. I have confidence SE will be able to stay on track with their fixes over next 2 months...but if that is not enough to save the game and they pull the plug before the PS3 launch(or shortly after)...what next?

Would anyone who has been out of FFXI for some time consider going back and continue their adventures? Without FFXIV...would SE have no choice but to continue to pump $$ into FFXI? I have been out of FFXI for a couple years...and this is something I would consider. Just thinking about it makes me kind of excited...which is pretty scary considering how much I wanted to love FFXIV.

Am I alone? Delusional?

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#2 Oct 29 2010 at 10:15 AM Rating: Decent
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If the game makes more money than it's upkeep costs, there is no reason to "pull the plug".
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#3 Oct 29 2010 at 10:19 AM Rating: Default
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Hyanmen wrote:
If the game makes more money than it's upkeep costs, there is no reason to "pull the plug".

I dont see that happening.
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#4 Oct 29 2010 at 10:20 AM Rating: Good
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Delusional I think--PS3 release in Q1 2011
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#5 Oct 29 2010 at 10:20 AM Rating: Excellent
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I see that on Selbina, it greatly fluctuates during the day.

At US primetime (6PM), it's around 1.2k users.

For some reason, right now (9:00AM), there are 2.1k users online.


Probably a timezone thing, all the parties are JP right now coincidentally (It's like 1 AM over there right now too!)
#6 Oct 29 2010 at 10:22 AM Rating: Good
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While FFxi was always my favrite MMO, not a chance I would go back now. If ffxiv were to fail, I would honestly only have hopes for blizzards new MMO, or maybe Starwars. There would be many many more hours than normal put into Diablo 3, thats for sure.
#7 Oct 29 2010 at 10:22 AM Rating: Default
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I dont see that happening.


I can't recall a situation where it hasn't happened, yet.

Oh yeah, Matrix Online.
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We really want to compete against World of Warcraft and for example the new Star Wars MMO.

#8 Oct 29 2010 at 10:25 AM Rating: Default
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Hyanmen wrote:
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I dont see that happening.

Oh yeah, Matrix Online.


LOL, I dont know one person who played that game.
#9 Oct 29 2010 at 10:25 AM Rating: Good
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FFXIV won't fail in the sense that APB did where servers just go down, not for a long time. But I do think it'll end up with vanguard/age of conan numbers, which I think is a bit of a failure given how well FFXI was doing up until about a year ago.

From what I've heard, the level cap increase is hurting FFXI due to most of the 75 content being trivialized, and not having enough post 75 content to keep players challenged.
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#10 Oct 29 2010 at 10:26 AM Rating: Default
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Hyanmen wrote:
Quote:
I dont see that happening.


I can't recall a situation where it hasn't happened, yet.

Oh yeah, Matrix Online.

I meant about it succeeding...

SE really F'd up this time NA donot tollerate this kind of release for any game.
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#11 Oct 29 2010 at 10:27 AM Rating: Default
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Quote:
I meant about it succeeding...


Why quote me then.. >_>;
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#12 Oct 29 2010 at 10:30 AM Rating: Excellent
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I don't see myself playing any other MMO's. This one is tailored to fit my lifestyle right now, if it goes under (which I doubt seriously) then I probably won't be playing anything else.
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#13 Oct 29 2010 at 10:33 AM Rating: Decent
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Daggit wrote:
While FFxi was always my favrite MMO, not a chance I would go back now. If ffxiv were to fail, I would honestly only have hopes for blizzards new MMO, or maybe Starwars. There would be many many more hours than normal put into Diablo 3, thats for sure.


diablo 3 isn't an MMO. and if your talking about cataclysm, that's still not a new MMO. as for star wars, i wont hype that up to much until i see it in action.
#14 Oct 29 2010 at 10:39 AM Rating: Good
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The game will operate at a loss if it needs to until the PS3 release. After that is a different discussion and we'll cross that bridge when we get there.
#15 Oct 29 2010 at 10:47 AM Rating: Good
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Its really unlikely that this game will fail. From SE's perspective they will plug along getting bugs worked out and content added until the PS3 release. My money is on a first expansion packaged with the PS3 release (much like how FFXI NA came out with Zilart).

This is a console game ported to the PC, any players they get/keep from PC sales is a bonus. My understanding is that 1. SE is HUGE in japan, and 2. most JP gamers are console players, PS3 in particular. It will still be a big game there, assuming they have the bulk of issues worked out by console launch.

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#16 Oct 29 2010 at 10:52 AM Rating: Excellent
Teegotaru wrote:
My understanding is that 1. SE is HUGE in japan, and 2. most JP gamers are console players, PS3 in particular. It will still be a big game there, assuming they have the bulk of issues worked out by console launch.


Lol.. worst case senario:

I am the last NA player on Palamecia.

Solution:

Learn Japanese.

:D
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#17 Oct 29 2010 at 11:02 AM Rating: Excellent
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StateAlchemist2 wrote:

Lol.. worst case senario:

I am the last NA player on Palamecia.

Solution:

Learn Japanese.

:D


Well..I do hope a year from now, I look at back the question I proposed and laugh(possibly in Japanese)...due to the game being alive and well.
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#18 Oct 29 2010 at 11:07 AM Rating: Good
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if SE pulled the plug on FFXIV (which I just don't see happening unless PS3 release bombs utterly) and they allowed me to pay for FFXI with crysta I would consider playing FFXI again... but it would be tough for me to decide to do so unless I could get my character back though. It is hard to imagine grinding myself up again - I have already had 3 characters on FFXI... the thought of doing all the beginning stuff again makes my stomach churn.

I might even just end up trying WoW again.... lol
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#19 Oct 29 2010 at 11:07 AM Rating: Good
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Well..I do hope a year from now, I look at back the question I proposed and laugh(possibly in Japanese)...due to the game being alive and well.


Start warming up your "w" key...wwww ^^
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#20 Oct 29 2010 at 11:16 AM Rating: Decent
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I might even just end up trying WoW again.... lol


Hate to say it, but I already went this route 2 days ago. I'll keep playing both hoping for some change because otherwise I'd give up on one......
#21 Oct 29 2010 at 11:33 AM Rating: Excellent
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Don't worry Simool, today during the day Palamecia had about 1800 people logged in at one point :) We're not giving up on our server yet ;)
(but yes last night I was bummed about the numbers as well when I checked)
#22 Oct 29 2010 at 11:36 AM Rating: Default
I'd sooner choke on my own vomit, which is likely if I ever step foot in FFXI again. I'd probably just focus more on Cataclysm in between playing Civilization 5 and various Xbox 360 games.
#23 Oct 29 2010 at 12:09 PM Rating: Decent
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It is extremely unlikely that they pull the plug on FFXIV. As populations drop they will just merge servers as required to keep populations acceptable on the remaining servers.

While they are merging servers they will remove dev support by assigning devs to other projects or just firing them.

Eventually, FFXIV will be just like VG is now...a few servers and minimal dev support. They may try to squeeze out one expansion as another cash grab since the bulk of the content for an expansion is probably already in place.
#24 Oct 29 2010 at 12:27 PM Rating: Good
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Teegotaru wrote:
This is a console game ported to the PC, any players they get/keep from PC sales is a bonus. My understanding is that 1. SE is HUGE in japan, and 2. most JP gamers are console players, PS3 in particular. It will still be a big game there, assuming they have the bulk of issues worked out by console launch.

Ouch!
You've pretty much said (and I don't disagree with you) that we, the PC users, are guinea pigs to work out bugs with the system until they can get the PS3 users. Not only that, but we're disposable too!
#25 Oct 29 2010 at 1:12 PM Rating: Excellent
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I'm in the same boat as Wint, this game really does suit my schedule/game style. If it goes, I'm more than likely out of the MMO community.
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#26 Oct 29 2010 at 1:12 PM Rating: Excellent
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I wonder how many PS3 players are also PC gamers in NA? Meaning many playing on the PC version are doing it till the PS3 release. So the game sales will go (PS3 FFXIV console sales)up but will the game sub increase?

Late Nov-Dec server population will be real interesting. That's when the free month is up.
#27 Oct 29 2010 at 1:36 PM Rating: Excellent
There's an interesting graph over that Bluegartr, http://www.bluegartr.com/threads/99998-Server-Populations/page9 , just scroll down a bit and you'll see it. It's a big enough fall, but not THAT huge.
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#28 Oct 29 2010 at 1:41 PM Rating: Decent
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diablo 3 isn't an MMO. and if your talking about cataclysm, that's still not a new MMO. as for star wars, i wont hype that up to much until i see it in action.


Not only does Blizzard have Cataclysm coming out, but there is an unnamed Blizzard MMO on the horizon. It is also been stated that it is a new intellectual property, meaning not Starcraft, Warcraft or Diablo. Though honestly it probably won't be talked about much until 2012 or later and even later than that til it's released.
#29 Oct 29 2010 at 2:10 PM Rating: Excellent
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I usually see about 1400 on Gysahl, but that usually hops up to 2k around JP primetime. I'm in the same boat as Wint. I'd be pretty sad if this game went offline.
#30 Oct 29 2010 at 2:25 PM Rating: Excellent
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Quote:
Ouch!
You've pretty much said (and I don't disagree with you) that we, the PC users, are guinea pigs to work out bugs with the system until they can get the PS3 users. Not only that, but we're disposable too!


Well a look at the interface compared to other pc based MMO's shows how little they care for us.

It will be interesting to see how the next six months pan out. Even with 1k people online at any given time that probably means 5k subscribers per server which works out at about a million bucks a month for them. No idea how much servers and bandwidth cost but I think we can safely say they aren't spending a milion a month on developer wages if this is what they came up with after five years.

To me I think the crucial question is whether they can turn things around by PS3 launch, that means the December update and possibly another after that will be decisive.

If I were in charge I'd have released a few easy fixes in the regular maintenances to generate some goodwill. I don't see why they couldn't change leve timers, keybindings, anima costs/regens, degeneration of equipment rates straight away, and I think the December update will be disappointing to a lot of people ie searchable market wards will still not be good enough for many.

TL:DR I've lost all respect for SE, they really don't have a clue what western players expect. However the game will continue, FFXI still has plenty (probably more than IV) of subscribers to subsidise FFXIV. Many people will enjoy the game for years to come, but it will never live up to the dreams we have all been having since the announcement of FFXIV.

I'm astounded they can be so inept
#31 Oct 29 2010 at 2:33 PM Rating: Good
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I still play FFXI and I play this now.. if this were to go under I would just play FFXI more.. right now FFXIV is easier for me to play because I can log in and log out without any major events planned
#32 Oct 29 2010 at 2:35 PM Rating: Good
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I allrdy reactivate my wow account and been playign around with the talent change, i only come on ff14 to do couple leves and after i check my rank bar barely going up after 5 i kinda log of.After rank 15 craftings profession take over 15000 to rank up and you get maybe 250-400 point per syntesis if your lucky and each syntesis take about 45 sec to 1 min to do so yea getting 50 would take forever right now.



I was really hoping ff14 would take me away from wow but sadly only good thing is graphic whitch idc much about,Wow have poor end game content over but atleast class are fun to play and the UI is top end since we can customize it 100%.

Ill stick around till next patch and see how it goes and will decide if i play wow and ff14 or if i just go back to wow full time.
#33 Oct 29 2010 at 2:36 PM Rating: Good
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Keysofgaruda wrote:
Daggit wrote:
While FFxi was always my favrite MMO, not a chance I would go back now. If ffxiv were to fail, I would honestly only have hopes for blizzards new MMO, or maybe Starwars. There would be many many more hours than normal put into Diablo 3, thats for sure.


diablo 3 isn't an MMO. and if your talking about cataclysm, that's still not a new MMO. as for star wars, i wont hype that up to much until i see it in action.


I think Blizzard is working on a secret "Next-Gen MMO". They've had job postings looking for developers to work on the "Next-Gen MMO" project.
#34 Oct 29 2010 at 3:27 PM Rating: Good
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TLDWTR (too long don't want to read) :
FFXIV will not sink. it's nearly a million dollar/ month income for SE
you don't need millions of players to be successful in a MMO
PS3 still needs to launch and many people are waiting on Nov/Dec updates


There is no way FFXIV will go offline.

MMO's are generally money makers. They might have not recouped the development costs from box sales, but Those costs are most likely partly written off, or spread through the lifetime of the game.

atm there are 18 servers. I'd say it's safe to assume maybe at least 4-5k players per server (undoubtedly more)

lets take the low end 4k x 18 = 72,000 players x$60.00 = $4,320,000 in box sales (still a very low ball number)

72,000 x ~$13.00/mo for sub fee = $936,000/mo.

I think any company would be happy making a mil a month on 1 game.

FFXIV might not be a success story of a MMO like WoW. but the income alone even from a low subscription population is reason enough to keep the game afloat.

Granted I have no idea what monthly operations cost for SE but I'm sure monthly costs they stay in the green.

SE may even divert profit from XI (XI has already paid for itself all money generated is nearly 100% profit outside of operation costs)

When we hear of games failing like APB, that was a first attempt of a company with no sustainable income outside of that one game. Vanguard was met with community outcry, it's still going today, same with AoC. FFXIV may not have the numbers of WoW or other past MMOs but that doesn't mean its going to tank.

Another think you have to take into account with MM subscriptions is the fact that there are many options out there for gamers. Before it was just a handful of games sharing the subscription community. Now there are 20 different games to choose from, this will adversely effect any new MMO to come to market. Even if BLizzard where to make a new MMO an launch tomorrow they would have a **** of a time reaching 11 mil subs liek they currently enjoy. That time has come and gone.

I wouldn't be surprised if in the near future a MMO with 1 mil subs would be considered a rare over the top success story. MMO that enjoy sub in the 100's of K range will be accepted as normal and a success. While FFXI maybe be floating in that 100k sub range the PS3 still needs to launch and I think many people are waitign for Dec to roll around to see what the Dev team does with it.

TLDR:
FFXIV will not sink. it's nearly a million dollar/ month income for SE
you don't need millions of players to be successful in a MMO
PS3 still needs to launch and many people are waiting on Nov/Dec updates
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#35 Oct 29 2010 at 3:51 PM Rating: Excellent
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The question posed in this thread is not, "Will FFXIV fail," it is "What would you do if it did?" So while I'm sure the OP appreciates the positive feedback about the likelihood that FFXIV will be around for a while, it doesn't actually answer the original question.

As for me, I would likely not go back to FFXI - I am over that game at this point. Outside of waiting for Star Wars, or the next Blizzard MMO, I would actually not see myself doing much MMO gaming at all now that I think about it. There are plenty of excellent single-player or online-but-not-quite-massive games to keep my attention in the market at this point.
#36 Oct 29 2010 at 4:15 PM Rating: Default
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FFXI still has plenty (probably more than IV) of subscribers to subsidise FFXIV.


Do you really think they would use profits from one game just to keep another loss making one going? I don't think the game will go down for a few years either as it's easy to make an MMO pay for itself, having said that everyone knows how you make a low population game profitable and that't not a nice prospect if you like the game.
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#37 Oct 29 2010 at 4:32 PM Rating: Excellent
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preludes wrote:
Do you really think they would use profits from one game just to keep another loss making one going?
Yes.
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#38 Oct 29 2010 at 4:37 PM Rating: Excellent
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Honestly If this game fails I will probably never touch another SE game in my life. I have been an SE supporter since FFIV, but if they don't listen to the public and pull this game cause everyone quits, then they are a company that deserves to cease to exist.
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#39 Oct 29 2010 at 4:49 PM Rating: Good
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The game won't die, the worst thing going to happen to it is like Ragnarok Online II, the developer just closed down all the servers and have a major revamp, and it's going to be released soon again in Korea (CBT already done I think). This will not die like APB or whatever, RO II didn't, because they have a major developer and they have a major following still.
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#40 Oct 29 2010 at 4:55 PM Rating: Good
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In context if XIV was pulled tomorrow I would probably go back to LOTRO. I have a few RL friends in XI, but they are on the fence as to how much longer they will be around. I would imagine LOTRO is building some momentum with their new free to play model

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#41 Oct 29 2010 at 5:17 PM Rating: Good
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This game won't go anywhere anytime soon unless the Japanese subscription crater. Doesn't look like it will. So if there are population issues in the US then they'll cosolidate servers. Even if it goes down to 8 servers it will still be profitible for them so long as their bread and butter Japanese market remains strong.

Edited, Oct 29th 2010 7:37pm by doubleax
#42 Oct 29 2010 at 5:36 PM Rating: Good
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FFXI has actually never been more fun. There is also a metric ton of stuff to do. Just equipping one job with the new +2 AF will take months. I canceled my XI account when XIV came out but this week started playing them both again. I dunno what I'll do if 14 flops. So far I've played it as a solo game, getting pretty much every DOL/DOH and CON to 20-25. I'm just entering the 'grind levels' and don't know if I wanna put the time in considering our linkshell usually has 3-4 members online of the 30 total members.

Going back to XI after the graphics upkick of 14 kinda sucks. Plus I play XI on a 17" monitor and play 14 on a beast of a TV. And nothing else I'm interested in is on the horizon. I'm really pulling for XIV because if it just had the gameplay/search/targeting/etc of XI it would be a great game. But the fact that I'm rooting for it so much and still splitting playtime with a game that is 8 years old tells me something.
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#43 Oct 29 2010 at 7:27 PM Rating: Excellent
Add me to the ranks of people who would be sad to see this game go offline. However, I don't see that happening. There are many players on the fence who will likely come back after the Nov./Dec. patches, and others who will join the game between then and the PS3 release. There are also many players who will play longer hours once more content is added, which will create the image of a more lively game and encourage others to play as well. And then there's the PS3 launch.

This game has problems, but not nearly enough problems to cause a complete failure... at least not for a Final Fantasy title. Any other MMO, and I'd say the chance of failure would be much higher, but SE already has a large legions of fans locked in who only really care about playing Final Fantasy.
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#44 Oct 29 2010 at 8:32 PM Rating: Decent
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Trust me there are a lot of people that are still going to be joining this game. I myself am one of them my PC just isn't good enough at the moment. I know of another 15-16 people that are still in XI (in my old LS) that are in the same boat.

And I know that my local game store has 87 pre-orders already for PS3 version

The game isn't going to die, it won't be 11.2 million people strong like WOW but more than enough to still enjoy the game.

#45 Oct 29 2010 at 8:39 PM Rating: Excellent
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My guess (and you can bookmark this and laugh at me in a year if I'm wrong) is that we will all be laughing about the launch problems of this game a year from now and they'll have things ironed out. Others may not have the faith in SE, but I do.
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#46 Oct 29 2010 at 8:50 PM Rating: Default
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how come this thread isnt locked when mine was?
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#47 Oct 29 2010 at 8:53 PM Rating: Default
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but your still playing it right?

bandwith dont cost alot for them and there limiting there bandwith to each connection to the server. other games had way worse launchs but there doing fine now after the year mark. age of conan had to had the worse.

the guys working on the game are already on SE payrole every user account is $13 so there pertty much happy with the money rolling in vs waiting a couple years for that same sum of money off traditional games.

Edited, Oct 29th 2010 10:59pm by mitmystria
#48 Oct 29 2010 at 10:47 PM Rating: Decent
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TheAnf wrote:
Trust me there are a lot of people that are still going to be joining this game. I myself am one of them my PC just isn't good enough at the moment. I know of another 15-16 people that are still in XI (in my old LS) that are in the same boat.

And I know that my local game store has 87 pre-orders already for PS3 version

The game isn't going to die, it won't be 11.2 million people strong like WOW but more than enough to still enjoy the game.



Glad to hear it - I hope that when you folks join us frontrunners will be able to supply you with what you are looking for in the early game.

I'm enamored of my war stories about the first time I tried to party, at like R16 Con with a weathered staff and R1 equipment... lolz
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#49 Oct 29 2010 at 10:55 PM Rating: Decent
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iv been out of xi for far too long to go back, i tried to last summer but with as much as i loved that game its just far too behind the curve graphically for me. the changes they implimented after i quit seemed nice (level sync and etc) but i just couldnt get into it cause it just looked too old. maybe im just vain like that but o well...


cant go back to wow either, i got soooo burnt out on it before xiv launch i could barely bring myself to log in every 2-3 days due to lack of anything engaging to do.

i guess i'll just be mmo-less at least for the time being. tho i hear good things about terra-online. maybe that will peak my interest when it comes out.
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#50 Oct 29 2010 at 11:00 PM Rating: Decent
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Halloween was taking place in many area's last. That could be a good reason to only see 850 players on at any given time lastnight.
So I would say many people were just to tired to play lastnight from taking there kids out and eating all the candy lol.

To answer your question about ffxi: No I wouldn't go back to it. People are so far ahead of me in that game now I just don't know how I or anyone would catch up.
#51 Oct 29 2010 at 11:02 PM Rating: Excellent
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If they continue to be mostly silent and ignore issues (customer support currently sucks also), then I will be very sad. I will be sucker punched by the new WoW expansion, even though I wanted to really have a new experience in final fantasy land.

It is like being a judge on Iron Chef, but you can't see any of the ingredients, and this makes you want to leave the building as quickly as possible.
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