also both games target the same player base "The Casual" if you belive FFIXV is some kind of "Hardcore" heaven, then i dont know what game you been playing.
There's more than one kind of casual. If you don't think that WoW has a style that's meaningfully different from FFXIV's, then I don't know what games you've
I think some people are forgetting that Cataclysm is Blizzard's effort to jumpstart an old game with a partial reboot. This is not a shiny new MMO here -- it's something that has always been there. The people who really want to play WoW... are playing WoW.
If Cataclysm is fantastic, FFXIV could lose people from the 2/3 of non-Japanese players who were sitting on the fence about choosing only a single game to play and are willing to jump exclusively to a six-year-old game that is stylistically very different from the one they've been playing for months. On the other hand, if Cataclysm is terrible (or even not amazing), then millions of players will potentially leave an aging game looking for something new. The risk/reward ratio here seems pretty good for FFXIV.
I hope Cataclysm succeeds. I'd like to see more MMO's attempt a meaningful reboot once they got old. I think a reboot of FFXI, for example, would have been better than FFXIV. But, I just don't think there are that many FFXIV players itching to jump to Warcraft who haven't already long-since done it. The ones that are still playing are here because the other options aren't that exciting for them.
we can nitpick about what kind of casual each company want's to attract, but the bottom line is both game's are targeted towards a casual audience in general.
I think some people are forgetting that Blizzard! Has proved wrong everybody expansion after expansion, patch after patch, wow killer after wow killer, they still stand as the strongest MMO 6yrs+ after original release, Wolkt was an attempt to revitalize the game, and it work/failed in some way's, cataclysm is more of going back to it's original root's(More hardcore, less PVE Casual friendly)
As to if it will succeed or not, that all depends on how far they go to either spectrum, if they go to hardcore they will lose a good chunk of their subs, and if they go way to casual "Ala Wolkt" they will lose subs too, just not as much as if they go all hardcore, IMO FFXIV does indeed has to gain if cata does fail's, but honestly speaking, i doubt cata will fail on it's face in any way as hard as FFXIV has, and is not like FFXIV offers much gameplay wise over wow.