To answer your question, I don't really think it will make a large difference. I see people all over the place on my server and I imagine, those that were leaving for Cata already have gone back to WoW in preparation for it's release.
I agree. The overlap of people who actually play FFXI(XIV) and WoW is smaller than you would think - meaning that the XIV end of the pool doesn't have many WoW gamers to begin with. What Blizzard does or does not do isn't going to affect the 500-750k people who are XI\XIV gamers in the least. The only thing I am worried about is the running of both games leaving a skeleton population in each - I wish they wouldn't have done it this way but it is what it is.
He's also right in that those who are planning on playing Cata are in their accounts right now. Blizzard releases a huge amount of content when they prepare expansions - it's not like everything comes down when Dec 7 hits. It's been building up the last month or so. The world has already cracked, theorycrafters are busy crunching the numbers for new talent specs, we're all reforging our existing gear just counting down til the 7th when the new areas, dungeons, and level cap hits.
However, for all of my grumbling over the past few months I'm still waiting for that miracle patch that will make XIV top again - so even in those folks who DO overlap... We're holding out hope and may return.
Right as in he has an opinion ? not a fact ? and Btw: FFXIV does not has 750k people playing, they "Shipped" 630k unit's, thats not SOLD to customers thats sold to retailers, they did had around 400-500 players at "Release", but that number as we all know has shrunk quite a bit, and to think that out of let's say 350k people, nobody is gonna jump ship is just wishful thinking, i'm not saying FFXIV is gonna be a ghost town, but will people leave once cata come's out ? yeah they will, will people leave wow if this game's get's great ? yes they will too, the difference is that wow can afford to lose 2million players easy, FFXIV cant afford to lose 100k player's
You severely overestimate your numbers to make your point.
As many have said, the bulk of the players who are the type of player who would jump ship from FFXIV for WoW have already decided to do so. I'm sure some may, but not nearly the 100k you seem to think.
WoW is largely a bandwagon game. Regardless of how much or how little anyone likes it and regardless of the quality of the game, the fact remains that nearly all of WoW's advertisements are about how many other people are playing it. Watch nearly any WoW commercial or nearly any WoW ad. The most recent Cataclysm one is pretty much the ONLY ad for WoW that didn't focus on the notion that "Everyone is playing WoW and that's why you should play WoW".
Now I'm not saying this type of marketing is ineffective; consumers are fickle and frequently tend to buy products based solely on "Someone else said it was good". Movies use the same type of advertising; nearly every movie ad and trailer is comprised halfway or more by what OTHER PEOPLE said about the movie, or how much it made in its first week.
I'm not saying WoW is a good game or a bad game because these terms are subjective and opinionated. What I'm saying is: The primary reason WoW is popular is because WoW is popular. It may sound cyclical, but it's true. Consider the amount of people who have quit games because "people are leaving" or people who refuse to even TRY FFXI/FFXIV because "They don't have a lot of players"
Most people are very fickle and will quite readily jump to a more popular product for NO OTHER REASON than "It's more popular". These people generally have very short attention spans and get bored of products quickly. That is why I say that this type of player has ALREADY QUIT and went back to WoW, or whatever else it is they were playing.
Anyone who is left playing FFXIV now is either in it for the long haul regardless of how FFXIV performs, or is hanging in there to see how FFXIV does and will make their decision based on FFXIV, not based on another game.
I'll even make a poll for you.