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Square Enix Revised Earnings ForecastFollow

#1 Dec 16 2010 at 4:17 AM Rating: Excellent
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As players begin to enjoy the a wealth of new content within Eorzea today, Square Enix has quietly launched a different kind of update, which shows a revised outlook of the company's performance this fiscal year ending March 2011.

See how their numbers have been affected, and what role Final Fantasy XIV plays in all this, after the jump.

Read the article
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#2 Dec 16 2010 at 4:37 AM Rating: Default
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Puuh. I presumed they took a blow... but that a single title could have THAT much impact?
They own a whole array of franchises... are you sure?

Waitwait. I just read the report. One major other reason you forgot to mention: investments into building up a stronger development team in the digital entertainment department (not only FF), and the delay of Deus Ex, which now will enter into the calculation of the next fiscal period (the same being true for the delayed PS3 version). Then again, we all know the whole paper is just about Wada trying to save his head anyway, hahahahaha!!!

Edited, Dec 16th 2010 5:54am by Rinsui
#3 Dec 16 2010 at 5:29 AM Rating: Good
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I did some research to see how bad that profit margin was and it's apparently one of the lowest in the last 8 years.

I'm kind of glad that it SOUNDS like they've learned their lesson with pushing out games before they're ready. My boyfriend was looking forward to Deus Ex but he was terrified that the game would suffer from the various complaints that got thrown at FF13 and FF14.

I guess there's an english version of the press release: http://www.square-enix.com/eng/news/pdf/20101216_E_FINAL.pdf

Edited, Dec 16th 2010 11:54am by Enelia
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#4 Dec 16 2010 at 10:13 AM Rating: Good
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Just imagine what those numbers might have looked like without the box sales from FFXIV.
#5 Dec 16 2010 at 10:38 AM Rating: Good
Their stock has dumped 6% today but will probably remain near $17 which would put it close to their 52 week low. I expect their next quarter will be good, so I'm going to pick some shares up.
#6 Dec 16 2010 at 12:11 PM Rating: Good
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While XIV was obviously a disaster of a release, I can't quite figure how they would have recouped even ONE billion dollars this fiscal year were it more successful, let alone several billion dollars. Maybe I'm missing something. They surely didn't expect it to draw in millions of players.
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Ok, now we're going to get slash fiction of Wint x Kachi somehere... rule 34 and all...

Never confuse your inference as the listener for an implication of the speaker.

Good games are subjective like good food is subjective. You're not going to seriously tell me that there's not a psychological basis for why pizza is great and lutefisk is revolting. The thing about subjectivity is that, as subjects go, humans actually have a great deal in common.
#7 Dec 16 2010 at 12:24 PM Rating: Excellent
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This should have been a strong year for them too, I'm wondering whats going to happen next year.
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#8 Dec 16 2010 at 12:56 PM Rating: Good
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Kachi wrote:
While XIV was obviously a disaster of a release, I can't quite figure how they would have recouped even ONE billion dollars this fiscal year were it more successful, let alone several billion dollars. Maybe I'm missing something. They surely didn't expect it to draw in millions of players.


They probably did, based solely on the Final Fantasy name. In reality we all knew it wouldn't (not immediately, and definitely not with how it launched) but I don't think they were operating 100% reality when it came to designing and pushing out FFXIV anyway.

Edited, Dec 16th 2010 1:58pm by StrijderVechter
#9 Dec 16 2010 at 1:14 PM Rating: Good
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Kachi wrote:
While XIV was obviously a disaster of a release, I can't quite figure how they would have recouped even ONE billion dollars this fiscal year were it more successful, let alone several billion dollars. Maybe I'm missing something. They surely didn't expect it to draw in millions of players.


Don't forget, we've recieved over 2 free additional months of play already. Factor in initial sales of the game, and assume that maybe 200k players would have paid had the game been ready, and that's a huge chunk of revenue per month. Thinking that way, it's pretty easy to see how FFXIV has had such a dramatic impact on their numbers. I sincerely hope they make a recovery pretty quickly, because something that is this detrimental to their profitability will only be given so much time to rebound before it is scrapped or put on the back burner.

Edited, Dec 16th 2010 2:15pm by BartelX
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#10 Dec 16 2010 at 1:26 PM Rating: Good
Kachi wrote:
While XIV was obviously a disaster of a release, I can't quite figure how they would have recouped even ONE billion dollars this fiscal year were it more successful, let alone several billion dollars. Maybe I'm missing something. They surely didn't expect it to draw in millions of players.

I thought it said 1 billion ¥, which is like 12 mill $

That would make more sense, 1bill $ seems like a lot for a company to net even on a good year.

Edited, Dec 16th 2010 2:27pm by UnknownGoddess
#11 Dec 16 2010 at 1:28 PM Rating: Decent
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BartelX wrote:
Kachi wrote:
While XIV was obviously a disaster of a release, I can't quite figure how they would have recouped even ONE billion dollars this fiscal year were it more successful, let alone several billion dollars. Maybe I'm missing something. They surely didn't expect it to draw in millions of players.


Don't forget, we've recieved over 2 free additional months of play already. Factor in initial sales of the game, and assume that maybe 200k players would have paid had the game been ready, and that's a huge chunk of revenue per month. Thinking that way, it's pretty easy to see how FFXIV has had such a dramatic impact on their numbers. I sincerely hope they make a recovery pretty quickly, because something that is this detrimental to their profitability will only be given so much time to rebound before it is scrapped or put on the back burner.

Edited, Dec 16th 2010 2:15pm by BartelX


You forget they have FFXI which is still profitable and good, and they are still releasing things for FFXI. They are fixing it, but it is a great thing to know SE is deciding to go to this length to save it and turn it around rather then scrapping it.
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#12 Dec 16 2010 at 1:33 PM Rating: Good
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I sincerely hope they make a recovery pretty quickly, because something that is this detrimental to their profitability will only be given so much time to rebound before it is scrapped or put on the back burner.


Doesn't this mean that they'll do pretty much whatever it takes to get this thing back on track? I mean, I doubt it costs them that much additional funds at this point, but the gain from actually being able to revive it is quite substantial if this forecast is to be believed?
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#13 Dec 16 2010 at 1:34 PM Rating: Good
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Oh, duh. You are correct. A billion yen is more like ten million dollars, which would have been a reasonable figure to expect from subscriptions.

I was thrown off by the seismic drop in profits, which was over 100 million dollars. I haven't looked over the figures too much, but that still doesn't actually explain much. It explains why their projected sales were so much higher than the reality, but not why they lost so much money based on XIV's performance.
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Hyrist wrote:
Ok, now we're going to get slash fiction of Wint x Kachi somehere... rule 34 and all...

Never confuse your inference as the listener for an implication of the speaker.

Good games are subjective like good food is subjective. You're not going to seriously tell me that there's not a psychological basis for why pizza is great and lutefisk is revolting. The thing about subjectivity is that, as subjects go, humans actually have a great deal in common.
#14 Dec 16 2010 at 1:41 PM Rating: Good
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Hyanmen wrote:
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I sincerely hope they make a recovery pretty quickly, because something that is this detrimental to their profitability will only be given so much time to rebound before it is scrapped or put on the back burner.


Doesn't this mean that they'll do pretty much whatever it takes to get this thing back on track? I mean, I doubt it costs them that much additional funds at this point, but the gain from actually being able to revive it is quite substantial if this forecast is to be believed?


I truly hope so. And you are probably correct in that it won't require that much additional funds since they already have the foundation set. Here's hoping they do it quickly!
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#15 Dec 16 2010 at 4:34 PM Rating: Default
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http://www.gamespot.com/news/6285481.html?tag=latestheadlines%3Btitle%3B1

awesome
The Japanese publisher had originally forecast net income of ¥12 billion ($142 million, £91 million) for the year ending March 31, 2011, but it has now slashed that estimate to a mere ¥1 billion ($12 million, £8 million). This represents a decline of 92 percent, with sales projections dropping 19 percent.

i just want to thank ffxiv! that being said.....FFXIV....thank you
#16 Dec 16 2010 at 9:54 PM Rating: Default
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A couple of failed ******* more and SE will hopefully Die!
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#17 Dec 16 2010 at 10:09 PM Rating: Decent
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Ostia wrote:
A couple of failed ******* more and SE will hopefully Die!



Well, now, without any reservations, I can say you are extremely biased and any post or thread you make is merely trolling, flaming, or otherwise attempting to cause harm to the community as a whole.

Thank you for placing your reason for being here quite out in the open where everyone can see it. Also, its titles. At first I thought the L was a I, to be honest.



Now that that is out of the way, yes, there was a huge drop in net profit projections for this fiscal period. It also means they can keep the game running, pay everyone, still continue development of all their active and upcoming titles, all while pulling in a small profit that is equal to more than most of us will see in 10 lifetimes. The company just won't be making enough money to buy that island off the coast of Tahiti, and will have to settle for that 100 acre plot of land (figuratively speaking).

Edited, Dec 16th 2010 10:20pm by Uryuu
#18 Dec 16 2010 at 10:21 PM Rating: Good
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Why would anyone want SE to die? That's an awfully petty and juvenile sentiment. Hopefully they learn from their mistakes. Better for them, and better for us.

Besides, if SE dies, then Bioware might become the new gold standard for RPGs. *shudder*
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Hyrist wrote:
Ok, now we're going to get slash fiction of Wint x Kachi somehere... rule 34 and all...

Never confuse your inference as the listener for an implication of the speaker.

Good games are subjective like good food is subjective. You're not going to seriously tell me that there's not a psychological basis for why pizza is great and lutefisk is revolting. The thing about subjectivity is that, as subjects go, humans actually have a great deal in common.
#19 Dec 16 2010 at 10:29 PM Rating: Good
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If your net profit is positive, you didn't lose money.

SE certainly isn't doing as well as it thought it would be doing at this time; obviously releasing the game early was a dumb move. But it's not a company-killer. Sure, it'll ding the stock price, and that has a few follow-on ramifications, but it's not the end of the world or of the company.

This isn't nearly as much money as was lost, say, on FF:The Movie, or on the FFU franchise panning out.

On the other hand, it's also lost income down the road - SE's stopped the bleeding somewhat by some improvements and by pushing back the day when they start billing, but they still have a good ways to go before they can actually make some subscription money on FF14. Or put differently, SE can no longer plan on a good launch for FF14 on the PS3; if they don't move heaven and earth in between then and now, there's no way that they'll overcome the initial negative press that the game received. That's yet more money that they'd forecast but won't get, or at least will have to delay a while...
#20 Dec 16 2010 at 10:35 PM Rating: Decent
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Kachi wrote:
Why would anyone want SE to die? That's an awfully petty and juvenile sentiment. Hopefully they learn from their mistakes. Better for them, and better for us.

Besides, if SE dies, then Bioware might become the new gold standard for RPGs. *shudder*


Why would you shudder? The company (bioware) has been delivering consistently AAA titles for years. SW:TOR has a real chance to be what FFXIV should've been (a cinematic story driven mmo). IDC much for Starwars but it's the light at the end of my (mmo) tunnel atm.

As much as I want SE to recover from this, part of me can't help but take this news as sweet justice. I don't want them to die, I just want them to remember who elevated them to the position they've been enjoying for years (and what happens when they take it for granted).
#21Ostia, Posted: Dec 16 2010 at 10:40 PM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post) So that another company buy's off all the franchise's SE holds and keeps locked in their basement and actually do something useful with them ? You know kinda how SE has bough off all this series etc etc and done nothing with them (Chrono trigger series anybody?)
#22 Dec 16 2010 at 10:50 PM Rating: Good
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AvatarexADV wrote:
If your net profit is positive, you didn't lose money.


Not entirely true; this kind of a naive way of looking at it. Net profit is before considering any dividends. Although the company didn't lose any money their shareholders sure did. Going forward, SE has to make a decision: how much of this do they reinvest, and how much to pay out to the shareholders. Either way, it leaves MUCH less in their coffers to not only cover expenses next year, but invest into R&D for future projects (including FFXIV).

So yes, they technically don't have a loss on their hands but that doesn't help the fact that they have almost 98% less money from the year than they were expecting.

AvatarexADV wrote:


This isn't nearly as much money as was lost, say, on FF:The Movie, or on the FFU franchise panning out.


Didn't the Spirits Within lose them like $110 million dollars (don't know the exact figure)? I wouldn't be surprised if FFXIV exceeded this in development costs. MMO's take much more money to develop then regular games. On last count I believe SW:TOR was up to $330 million spent.

AvatarexADV wrote:


On the other hand, it's also lost income down the road - SE's stopped the bleeding somewhat by some improvements and by pushing back the day when they start billing, but they still have a good ways to go before they can actually make some subscription money on FF14. Or put differently, SE can no longer plan on a good launch for FF14 on the PS3; if they don't move heaven and earth in between then and now, there's no way that they'll overcome the initial negative press that the game received. That's yet more money that they'd forecast but won't get, or at least will have to delay a while...


Agree with this. Even though they stopped the bleeding, it doesn't help that they probably lost (and this is completely speculation on my part) like 80% of their players following the launch. Not only that but without a healthy stream of incoming players (who would honestly recomend this game at this point?) FFXIV can only stagnate going forward (in the short run).

SE will REALLY have to turn things around for FFXIV to recover. And I really hope they make it work. I don't want to wait another 10 years for a FF MMO (if they ever go there again).
#23 Dec 16 2010 at 11:22 PM Rating: Decent
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Why would you shudder? The company (bioware) has been delivering consistently AAA titles for years. SW:TOR has a real chance to be what FFXIV should've been (a cinematic story driven mmo). IDC much for Starwars but it's the light at the end of my (mmo) tunnel atm.


Honestly I just don't have the slightest desire to play any of their games, and if they become the bigwigs of role-playing, I'm not sure I'll ever have anything to play. I grew up on Japanese games, and there is something distinctly western about Bioware games that totally turns me off. Not just the aesthetics either, though they do cause revulsion in my insides.

Quote:
So that another company buy's off all the franchise's SE holds and keeps locked in their basement and actually do something useful with them ? You know kinda how SE has bough off all this series etc etc and done nothing with them (Chrono trigger series anybody?)


While I could certainly get behind that, I'd rather SE be the ones to do it. You know, assuming they could do it well.

SE hasn't been totally disappointing me lately-- not enough that I've lost all faith in their ability to make a good game. Dissidia just came out last year and I thought it was great.
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Hyrist wrote:
Ok, now we're going to get slash fiction of Wint x Kachi somehere... rule 34 and all...

Never confuse your inference as the listener for an implication of the speaker.

Good games are subjective like good food is subjective. You're not going to seriously tell me that there's not a psychological basis for why pizza is great and lutefisk is revolting. The thing about subjectivity is that, as subjects go, humans actually have a great deal in common.
#24 Dec 16 2010 at 11:58 PM Rating: Good
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I feel sorry for video game companies. Games are so much more complicated to make than they used to be and gamers are always demanding a higher standard: better graphics, better story, better content. I'm helping my bro make a basic 2D RPG and I've been looking at FFIV and FFVI to see how Squaresoft did the graphics. It really strikes me how simple those games were compared to today's games and yet it's amazing how much Square was able to do with them. The content is really great because the basic foundational stuff was easy to make so a lot of focus could be put on the story, atmosphere, music and art.

With FFXIII and FFXIV SE has to put so much time and effort into just making a functioning game that lives up to today's standards that there's little time left to refine the product as a whole and almost no flexibility in changing aspects that aren't working well since that requires scrapping features that took many man hours to create.

I've felt the sting of three disappointing games this year, the two FFs and Gran Turismo 5. I hear people are quickly getting bored of Halo: Reach too. It's just too hard to make great games offering fresh experiences given today's standards. That's what I get out of it anyway, maybe you guys are playing better games than I've been playing. With the rise of indie games, maybe we'll get a new epic 2D RPG soon.
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#25 Dec 17 2010 at 12:33 AM Rating: Default
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Kachi wrote:
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Why would you shudder? The company (bioware) has been delivering consistently AAA titles for years. SW:TOR has a real chance to be what FFXIV should've been (a cinematic story driven mmo). IDC much for Starwars but it's the light at the end of my (mmo) tunnel atm.


Honestly I just don't have the slightest desire to play any of their games, and if they become the bigwigs of role-playing, I'm not sure I'll ever have anything to play. I grew up on Japanese games, and there is something distinctly western about Bioware games that totally turns me off. Not just the aesthetics either, though they do cause revulsion in my insides.

Quote:
So that another company buy's off all the franchise's SE holds and keeps locked in their basement and actually do something useful with them ? You know kinda how SE has bough off all this series etc etc and done nothing with them (Chrono trigger series anybody?)


While I could certainly get behind that, I'd rather SE be the ones to do it. You know, assuming they could do it well.

SE hasn't been totally disappointing me lately-- not enough that I've lost all faith in their ability to make a good game. Dissidia just came out last year and I thought it was great.


Bioware has created some of the most amazing game's of this decade, not mentioning that they have pretty much changed the way RPG's are made, SE did defined how a good/great/awesome(Depending on your fav FF) RPG was made back in the day, but times have changed, and all they have been able to improve on is "Graphics" that's it. They haven't been able to deliver another CT, or a FFVI-VII, what about a Xenogears ? or a Front mission 3 ? **** what bout a FFT ?

The only thing i can give them credit for this decade is the Kingdom Hearts series, and the AC movie, everything else has been a given, i mean Dissidia really ? they needed 20 years to make this game ? this should have been a PS2 game, or a PS3 game at Most! Really i used to love Squaresoft, but what SE has done to itself is horrible.

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#26 Dec 17 2010 at 8:54 AM Rating: Decent
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Kachi wrote:
Why would anyone want SE to die? That's an awfully petty and juvenile sentiment. Hopefully they learn from their mistakes. Better for them, and better for us.

Besides, if SE dies, then Bioware might become the new gold standard for RPGs. *shudder*


SE hasn't been the gold standard for RPGs since FFX. I'd say its a toss up between Bioware or Bethesda. SE doesn't even make the best JRPGs anymore, If they didn't distribute for Tri-Ace, or keep pumping out their DS/PSP remakes, they'd be off the map.
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#27 Dec 17 2010 at 8:59 AM Rating: Default
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SE doesn't even make the best JRPGs anymore


Uh-huuh.
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#28 Dec 17 2010 at 11:35 AM Rating: Excellent
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Hyanmen wrote:
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I sincerely hope they make a recovery pretty quickly, because something that is this detrimental to their profitability will only be given so much time to rebound before it is scrapped or put on the back burner.


Doesn't this mean that they'll do pretty much whatever it takes to get this thing back on track? I mean, I doubt it costs them that much additional funds at this point, but the gain from actually being able to revive it is quite substantial if this forecast is to be believed?


Projecting the payoff is always difficult, but I can't imagine the costs of continued development are very high compared to even a modest projection. As such it really comes down to whether or not they think the thing is salvageable at all, which they do seem to believe. That, or they actually aren't sure at all, and that's why they pushed back the PS-3 release indefinitely, because they might just end up scrapping the whole thing in a few months.
#29 Dec 17 2010 at 12:12 PM Rating: Default
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Hyanmen wrote:
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SE doesn't even make the best JRPGs anymore


Uh-huuh.


To quote a famous saying around here about that MMO, "Just because it's probably the most popular JRPG in the west, doesn't make it the best." Tales series or Tri-Ace games have infinitely better overall presentation and DON'T rely on the graphics to carry their games; Square-Enix does.
#30 Dec 17 2010 at 2:54 PM Rating: Decent
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Its a real shame that the new Tales of games are currently WII/DS exclusive, or else I'd have them all for my ps3. As is, I have to settle for psp remakes, ps1/2 classics, or using my tiny DS.
#31 Dec 17 2010 at 3:29 PM Rating: Good
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I dunno, the Tales games area all pretty much the same game. I like them, but I can't really consider a one-trick pony a contender to SE. Tri-Ace really only has Star Ocean and Valkyrie Profile. SE produces a large volume of a variety of games. The average quality has dropped off, definitely, making the brand name less meaningful to a point. I judge a company based on the volume of good or great games they put out, rather than their mediocre titles or failures. I don't automatically snatch up a SE game and expect it to be good anymore, but SE still makes a good portion of my favorite games, and they produce good games at a greater rate than any other JRPG company, and that's what really counts imo.

And I'm not a fan of Bethesda either. A couple of smash hits (that I didn't actually care for) makes you a flash in the pan.
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Hyrist wrote:
Ok, now we're going to get slash fiction of Wint x Kachi somehere... rule 34 and all...

Never confuse your inference as the listener for an implication of the speaker.

Good games are subjective like good food is subjective. You're not going to seriously tell me that there's not a psychological basis for why pizza is great and lutefisk is revolting. The thing about subjectivity is that, as subjects go, humans actually have a great deal in common.
#32 Dec 17 2010 at 3:35 PM Rating: Decent
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the most original JRPG I've played in the past 10 years was Infinite Undiscovery. Not that it was a 10/10 or anything, because the combat was very repetitive, but the party and crafting systems were the best I've seen in a long time. However it was a bit easy if you wanted to put the time into it (the game let you craft at a profit, so infinite gold). I couldn't say what was doing well over in japan, but over here in the states none of its really getting great reviews, they're going out of fashion.
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#33 Dec 17 2010 at 3:55 PM Rating: Good
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I mean, you could make the point that SE hasn't made a good JRPG in a while on the basis that a lot of their better recent titles have been action RPGs. That strikes me as a matter of semantics, but in reality I just don't particularly enjoy traditional JRPSs anymore, so that's not really a fault specific to SE given the fact that the genre just hasn't kept up with its maturing playerbase.
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Hyrist wrote:
Ok, now we're going to get slash fiction of Wint x Kachi somehere... rule 34 and all...

Never confuse your inference as the listener for an implication of the speaker.

Good games are subjective like good food is subjective. You're not going to seriously tell me that there's not a psychological basis for why pizza is great and lutefisk is revolting. The thing about subjectivity is that, as subjects go, humans actually have a great deal in common.
#34 Dec 17 2010 at 6:03 PM Rating: Decent
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Like I've said for years now, "If you stop paying MMORPG companies because you're not happy with their product, they'll HAVE to listen." SE might be able to ignore us on the message boards, but they're going to have a hard time ignoring their bottom line.
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