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Crafting with the Timer BarFollow

#1 Jan 15 2011 at 8:42 AM Rating: Decent
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Well folks it seems that my other post got filled up with some Comptetitive Critism, which ended up not being about my initial post (paritally to do with the post title I made I'm sure). So this is a new post with a flashy new title about what is being discussed here. First i'll give a recap.

#1 I noticed a pattern for synthing that involves using the timer bar. letting it run down so far etc then using a command i.e Standard, Rapid, Bold. Different Synths seem to be effected differently by using this method.

#2 The DoL uses the targeting system to try and find where the Fish, Wood, Ore etc is, then you swing in that area till you find your item. (As I recall this system was not very helpful initially i.e. it wouldn't give you hints)

#3 Seeing as SE always gives us full information on every aspect of the game there is no need to suspect that there is a crafting pattern, to help get a few more qualty/progress points out of a synth. :-)

#4 I am not deeming this as concrete. What I am requesting is if someone by chance is Required to Synth a hundred or so Items continually for a period of time if they could try letting the timer run down to different areas to see if they get different results. If there is an area that seems optimal, continue to use that same area to see if lets say your Success rate is 9/10, compared to 6-7/10. I will also be doing this as I have a few thousand Brass Rings to make. (Which seems to be optimal at 4/5th of the bar) If it will cost you too much time because you'd rather spam Standard to get them done faster that's okay. I don't expect you to try it.

#5 Thankyou for your efforts

Edit: 6 As I don't have time to try every craft on every class at every rank that is why I am suggesting volunteers (6000 crafts by 1 person ='s 60 crafts by 100 people). I don't really care about concrete % values, I like patterns.

#7 Yes I know that staring to the east while doing carpentry over one of the fires in the camps could help too....... yada yada (sarcasm)

#8 Please Stay on Topic. There are other posts about crafting gear and optimal Ranks etc. Please Redirect these inquiries to those posts.


Edited, Jan 15th 2011 9:51am by SlayerXero

Edited, Jan 15th 2011 9:54am by SlayerXero
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#2 Jan 15 2011 at 8:59 AM Rating: Excellent
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Everyone who posted in the original thread disagreed that there's any possibility this has a meaningful effect. That a nice way of saying it's completely bogus.
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#3 Jan 15 2011 at 9:12 AM Rating: Default
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I do realize that most people said that my theory was implausible where as a couple said they noticed a difference. I am looking for people who have Crafted continually on a recipe and noticed an optimal outcome. I am not sure that a few people with I.Q. below 60 saying "Me don't understand" means that there is no possiblity.(smile)

Edited for Bunsibuns - (Trying to not break my own rule of posting off topic lol)
I thoroughly enjoyed that article. It is definately true that there are patterns all around us, whether they are effected by a confidence boost to shoot a basket ball or the good old, pass it back to that guy because he scored the last goal type variables I am not sure. Or is it the difference between OOOXXXOXOXOXX or a Hexadecimal recurring pattern due to the same commands being performed? Please post if you have continuing success over many synths doing the same Timer Bar Pattern.

Edited, Jan 15th 2011 11:08am by SlayerXero
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#4 Jan 15 2011 at 9:43 AM Rating: Excellent
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I have noticed that random numbers seem to play too large a role while crafting. I have also experienced quite a bit of streaking while crafting (a string of fail, followed by a string of win, repeat). Of course, without having actual statistics to analyze, we run the risk of falling victim to the clustering illusion.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clustering_illusion

As the link states, of course you like patterns... we all do. That's why we see them when they're not even really there.

Edit: I really can spell really.

Edited, Jan 15th 2011 10:44am by bunsisbuns
#5 Jan 15 2011 at 5:58 PM Rating: Good
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I used to think that clicking a synth type at certain times on the timer bar during a certain color made a difference, especially when it was a tough leve synth. I threw caution to the wind one day and started to synth as timer started to drop. I found the only thing that really mattered to a successful synth was gear damage or not, synth support, crafting gear, food effect, and job abilities. I've tried all, some, and none. Only things that made a difference were those 5 things I said.
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#6 Jan 15 2011 at 6:49 PM Rating: Decent
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Always felt it was a coincidence, however, I have often seen someone next to me succeed and fail exactly as me if we was in sync.
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#7 Jan 15 2011 at 9:44 PM Rating: Decent
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Well, maybe its a coincidence, maybe not, but I noticed that if I select an option to synth just whit almost full bar, mostly it fails. So out of supersticion, I always try to "find" a sweet spot to select the action.

This is what it works for me:
hard synths:
|||||||||||||||•••••••|
easy synths:
|||||||||||||||||||||•••|
or
||||||||||||||||||||••••|

And seems that, at least for me, following this pattern works better than random points on the bar, I get less failures and a lot of success, but then again, it could be just a coincidense.

And also, some synths are like destined to fail no matter what you do, they start with unestable at first attempt, or just fail, fail, fail.

Edited, Jan 15th 2011 10:55pm by RdeLeo
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#8 Jan 16 2011 at 12:07 AM Rating: Excellent
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SlayerXero wrote:
#1 I noticed a pattern for synthing that involves using the timer bar. letting it run down so far etc then using a command i.e Standard, Rapid, Bold. Different Synths seem to be effected differently by using this method.


"I noticed a pattern" means nothing; everyone notices patterns, that's how our minds organize and understand information. Whether there is any truth to "some pattern" you think you see is another matter. You need to have many tests under the same conditions and, most importantly, you need to back up your claims with data -- preferably video data -- because anybody can fabricate numbers, especially someone who mentions several times how they "already notice a pattern," how they think there is "reason to suspect that there is more," and how they "like patterns more than concrete data."

SlayerXero wrote:
I am requesting... [someone] to Synth a hundred or so Items continually for a period of time if they could try letting the timer run down to different areas to see if they get different results.


With such small numbers, different percentile results are almost certain. With a hundred synths, even two or three breaks offsets the equation by 3/100 = 3%. We don't even have a control group to see what "normal" is yet!

SlayerXero wrote:
6 As I don't have time to try every craft on every class at every rank that is why I am suggesting volunteers (6000 crafts by 1 person ='s 60 crafts by 100 people). I don't really care about concrete % values, I like patterns.


That is a problem, because every person would have to be the same Rank, with the same gear, the same skill, the same support, with the same stats. If you get hundreds of numbers, some from Rank 10 people with no gear, and some from Rank 50 with a full crafting set, you can bet you'll see some patterns... the problem is, however, that they will be meaningless.

Scientific data is absolutely dependent upon precise methodology and an understanding of the scientific method. If anything changes during the course of an experiment, then there is no way to justify that it was X that affected your results and not Y or Z that popped up during the tests.

In short: try to be more objective, and devise a clear, preferably simple, experiment consistent with basic scientific methodology. First make a control group -- a group in which you change nothing, and document it; then isolate a single variable and test its effect(s); gets lots of data and see if a consistent pattern emerges; repeat once more, if possible, to verify the results.
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#9 Jan 16 2011 at 4:02 AM Rating: Default
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Just to add: don't forget that this is a program after all. So programming an accuracy/success rate and result depending on the % left on the bar right after you make the selection it's as easy as putting an
if(timer_bar between 80 and 90)
{ action success = 100 }
else
{ action success 50 }.

Even if the developers don't say anything about it, doesn't mean is not in there. So I agree with the last post, should make a control group, start analyzing data and see the results. Maybe we can find something the devs don't want us to know, cause it will render every synth into a success, leading to an exploit.
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#10 Jan 16 2011 at 4:34 AM Rating: Excellent
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RdeLeo wrote:
Just to add: don't forget that this is a program after all. So programming an accuracy/success rate and result depending on the % left on the bar right after you make the selection it's as easy as putting an
if(timer_bar between 80 and 90)
{ action success = 100 }
else
{ action success 50 }.

Even if the developers don't say anything about it, doesn't mean is not in there. So I agree with the last post, should make a control group, start analyzing data and see the results. Maybe we can find something the devs don't want us to know, cause it will render every synth into a success, leading to an exploit.


I don't think there are too many people here who realize just what kind of testing would be required to confirm this. Hint: without a parser that outputs to a log file with every action being given a stamp with time of game day, moon phase/polarity, weather, gear durability information, and time remaining on timer to coincide with the log data of action taken and the outcome of that action, nothing would be conclusive. And to expect anyone to be able to record all of this information for every action taken over the course of several hundred (thousand) actions in order to compile the data necessary for testing that might be deemed conclusive...

Pipe dreams are neat. You have to compile the data before you can start analyzing it, and that's the issue. That's why there's so little conclusive information about systems outside of what SE has told us. It's too much work to do manually.
#11 Jan 16 2011 at 6:48 AM Rating: Excellent
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Aurelius is right, we don't even have all the stat information as a beginning variable. It would probably be better for the crafting community at large to try to figure out how stats effect crafting. Timer bar doesn't effect success rate, it makes sure someone living is pushing the button.

We don't even have cons for synths or precise rank. There's too much information we don't have, to even begin testing the timer bar.
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#12 Jan 16 2011 at 1:16 PM Rating: Decent
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RdeLeo wrote:
programming an accuracy/success rate and result depending on the % left on the bar right after you make the selection it's as easy as putting an
if(timer_bar between 80 and 90)
{ action success = 100 }
else
{ action success 50 }.

...Maybe we can find something the devs don't want us to know, cause it will render every synth into a success, leading to an exploit.


But why would anyone purposely program an exploit? o_O
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"... he called to himself a wizard, named Gallery, hoping by this means to escape the paying of the fifteen hundred crowns..." (Machen 15)

"Thus opium is pleasing... on account of the agreeable delirium it produces." (Burke para.6)

"I could only read so much for this paper and the syphilis poem had to go."
#13 Jan 16 2011 at 1:27 PM Rating: Default
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This is what i have found from ranking weaving to 43 lw to 31.

This is the full Timer bar:

==================== Full probly will fail just spamming enter, moderate success on equal rank recipeits.

============== 70-75% Will have most progress Gains on Equal and Higher Rank recipeits, with same success as spamming standard on 100% Also best when crafting with gimped Subcraft. Better if your not quite of equal rank yet.

================== 80% Will have best results on recipeits that are giving you trouble @ 75% and Stuff significantly lower rank then your sub.
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#14SlayerXero, Posted: Jan 17 2011 at 4:57 PM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post) Thanks CornyBoob (Also great way to show the Timer Bar)
#15 Jan 17 2011 at 5:16 PM Rating: Decent
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SlayerXero wrote:
cornyboob wrote:
This is what i have found from ranking weaving to 43 lw to 31.

This is the full Timer bar:

==================== Full probly will fail just spamming enter, moderate success on equal rank recipeits.

============== 70-75% Will have most progress Gains on Equal and Higher Rank recipeits, with same success as spamming standard on 100% Also best when crafting with gimped Subcraft. Better if your not quite of equal rank yet.

================== 80% Will have best results on recipeits that are giving you trouble @ 75% and Stuff significantly lower rank then your sub.


Thanks CornyBoob (Also great way to show the Timer Bar)

I tested Goldsmith Crafting Brass Rings from R19 to R26 aprox 400 synths), R17 tool to R22 and R22 Tool to Current

No Guild Suport Used
ED will be Element Destabilize

========50% or less R19 to R22 5 of 10 (3 ED) R23 to R24 7 of 10 (3 ED) R25 to R26 8 of 10 (3 ED) - Low Quality Value
=============80% R19 to R22 7 of 10 (1 ED) R23 to R24 9 of 10 (1 ED) R25 to R26 10 of 10 (1 ED) - Ok Quality Value
==================100% R19 to R22 6 of 10 (3 ED) R23 to R24 8 of 10 (3 ED) R25 to R26 9 of 10 (2 ED) - Low Quality Value

With ED using 100% it would usually stop the ED after a couple attempts. There would also be a greater Progress Success compared to 80%. This does not compensate for waiting and using skills which is your best option. Because if it fails there is a huge durability drop, as well as you can lose some quality as well.


A few things...

You don't need the bars in there. Most people can figure out the difference between 50, 80, and 100% without a visual aid and it just makes a messy report even harder to read.

Messy report is messy. You're saying you did 400 synths but you're only reporting test outcomes for 30 synths per rank range, 10 each for each percentage remaining on the timer bar. That's statistically insignificant testing. You're trying too hard to prove your point instead of collecting and reporting data. What's the difference between "Low Quality Value" and "Ok Quality Value"? Vague descriptions are vague.

Proof of concept would come from 100 synths or so per level range, per timer bar. In other words, more than you can really do while ranking up until you hit the 40s. Proof of theory would come from 1000+ synths. That's just basic statistics for you, not numbers pulled from my ****. The consistency in your outcomes from such a small sample also brings the legitimacy (aka honesty) of your reporting into question.
#16 Jan 17 2011 at 5:50 PM Rating: Good
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SlayerXero wrote:
I tested Goldsmith Crafting Brass Rings from R19 to R26 aprox 400 synths), R17 tool to R22 and R22 Tool to Current


Unless you think that rank, equipment condition, and tool quality play no role in crafting, your "tests" are worthless.
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"... he called to himself a wizard, named Gallery, hoping by this means to escape the paying of the fifteen hundred crowns..." (Machen 15)

"Thus opium is pleasing... on account of the agreeable delirium it produces." (Burke para.6)

"I could only read so much for this paper and the syphilis poem had to go."
#17 Jan 17 2011 at 7:18 PM Rating: Good
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Did you repair all gear to 100% before every change? Did you use special job abilities the exact same number of times? I'm curious why you worry about a destabilized element, when I am grinding levels I don't care about quality, I just want the synth to get to 100% before durability <1 so I can get the SP. Even with your numbers I don't see a significant advantage to waiting to 80%. Like I said before, I click synth as the bar starts to go down and I very rarely ever botch synths. But then again I hate to burn through mats trying to get 400-500 SP while grinding, I prefer to get 275-325 and get better sp/materials.
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#18 Jan 17 2011 at 7:48 PM Rating: Decent
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/sigh

First and foremost YOU CANNOT RUN ACCURATE TESTS WITH UNKNOWN VARIABLES!!!!! You need to test how Craftsmanship, Mag. Craftsmanship and Control precisely effect crafting, those would have to be tested 100 times each, then the attributes each tested 100 times, element testing (all the elements) at 10% increase, 20% increase and 30% increase, then a decrease the same way, of course 100 times each, moon phases, weather, also tested 100 times each. This is how you get an average percentage.

Then when you have all those averages worked out, you can begin your time bar test. Otherwise, you're just wasting your time. Good luck in your testing.
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#19 Jan 17 2011 at 9:10 PM Rating: Decent
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Spyrit178 wrote:
/sigh

First and foremost YOU CANNOT RUN ACCURATE TESTS WITH UNKNOWN VARIABLES!!!!! You need to test how Craftsmanship, Mag. Craftsmanship and Control precisely effect crafting, those would have to be tested 100 times each, then the attributes each tested 100 times, element testing (all the elements) at 10% increase, 20% increase and 30% increase, then a decrease the same way, of course 100 times each, moon phases, weather, also tested 100 times each. This is how you get an average percentage.

Then when you have all those averages worked out, you can begin your time bar test. Otherwise, you're just wasting your time. Good luck in your testing.


Well, no. It doesn't matter what other variables are involved as long as those variables are all isolated and in this case, they most likely are. Assuming the OP wasn't swapping gear around between batches of tests (beyond the tool which they mentioned and separated), then those variables are static and aren't changing from one synth/action to the next. The OP could have done a better job of clarifying how they were handling gear damage throughout the process and confirming that they were wearing the same gear (excluding tool) throughout the testing but if we assume that they were, then it's not necessary to test all that other stuff because it's irrelevant to the testing that they did. The issue is that they didn't do nearly enough testing to be offering it as proof of anything, and in my eyes the credibility in their testing is highly questionable.
#20 Jan 18 2011 at 7:32 AM Rating: Decent
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Oh yes of course i had my gear repaired after aprox every 70 synths (@50% for hammer, till R22 then I used R22 Hammer) and 120 synths for gloves, shirt, shoes, hat, belt (All of which remained the same, R15 stuff). I did not use Guild Support. The Element Destabilize was on there to show how many more or less it happened. I'd like to say I sat in the same place every time, but after repairs I may have been a few pixels off on my last position.

Yes the testing is tough to do. I just took an average rounded down from my data because you can't do the same amount of synths for each rank, because of Ranking up. Expecially when you don't know how many you will actually succeed or fail which alters SP gains.

This is my last post on this as now I will be enjoying more of the game. Thanks for all who wrote in. Happy Crafting

Edit: This is my Reply when asking SE about if the Craft Timer has an Effect lol.

We understand how vast the world of FINAL FANTASY XIV is, and that it could take hundreds of hours to simply scratch the surface of its content! However, in order to avoid the possible spread of misinformation, and to keep the playfield level, GMs cannot provide gameplay hints and tips. This includes -- but is not limited to -- Mission/Quest steps, NPC locations, how to use items, battle system information, and how to acquire Gil. If you would like to learn more about these things, please research them and communicate with your fellow players via the official FINAL FANTASY XIV Community Site. You may reach it through http://lodestone.finalfantasyxiv.com. Should this fail to satisfy your curiosity, turn to a friend in-game. This is an MMORPG, after all, and interacting with others is part of the adventure!

Edited, Jan 18th 2011 3:42pm by SlayerXero
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#21 Jan 18 2011 at 7:36 AM Rating: Decent
I find hitting it about 1/4 down the progress seems to be a good place :)
#22 Jan 18 2011 at 8:28 AM Rating: Decent
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I'm sorry, but is this a joke? I mean...really?
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