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31k player base... over or underFollow

#1 Mar 06 2011 at 9:48 PM Rating: Good
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I just read that someone tried to compile the active amount of players since SE isn't publishing them anymore and came up with 17k playing daily and 31k or so playing every week I guess...

So does everyone think those numbers are higher or lower than the real figures?
#2 Mar 06 2011 at 10:09 PM Rating: Excellent
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17k playing daily means a little less than 1k per server, on average.

To be perfectly honest, those numbers might be a little high...

I would probably estimate 8-12k playing daily and 28k playing every week.

I'm guessing everyone's personal estimate of the current playerbase comes down to how you interpret the "tens of thousands" of responses to the most recent players poll (which could be anything from 20k-80k or so), combined with your personal estimate of the percentage of remaining players who responded.

My personal take on things is that if people are still committed enough to the success of this game (despite all its flaws) to log in on a weekly basis, there is a very good chance they were willing to take the time to log in to the Lodestone and respond to the poll.

In other words, I would guess that 85% of current players responded to the poll (~24k total responses received).
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#3 Mar 06 2011 at 10:28 PM Rating: Decent
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considering it's in unoffical beta testing that's not bad...

But let's just save all the gloom and doom post back for a few more months and see how the game looks this fall.
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#4 Mar 06 2011 at 10:47 PM Rating: Excellent
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dyvidd wrote:
considering it's in unoffical beta testing that's not bad...


I'd say it's bad, to be honest. Going off of tangible numbers on Wikipedia (the number I am citing does have a citation), the game has shipped 630,000 copies to the NA, EU, and JP regions combined.

Now I know what some people might say; that's shipped copies, not sold copies. Okay, fair enough. Let's be generous and say only half of those shipped copies sold, so that potential 31,000-sized playerbase is a higher percentage of the people who got a copy of the game.

Even then, 31,000 / 315,000 = 0.0984...

In other words, only about 10% of people who bought a copy of the game are still playing regularly, if at all. That's a terrible rate. It gets worse if you divide that number by shipped copies (5%).

You throw in that the buddy pass that CE owners got was effectively a free copy to hand out, and it's pretty ugly. :/

Not trying to rain on any parades or anything. Just throwing out some numbers.
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#5 Mar 06 2011 at 11:00 PM Rating: Excellent
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dyvidd wrote:
considering it's in unoffical beta testing that's not bad...

But let's just save all the gloom and doom post back for a few more months and see how the game looks this fall.


Wasn't the mantra 'just give it 6 months' last fall?
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#6 Mar 06 2011 at 11:01 PM Rating: Good
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I was flamed brutally and mercilessly by Hydragyrum and Thevedis for advocating that dedicated players, many of whom are on this forum, should be able to utilize a population call function. Sadly, the people who demanded that their own heads and the heads of others be firmly shoved in the collective posterior of SE won the day, and now we all live behind a heinous veil of ignorance.
#7 Mar 06 2011 at 11:05 PM Rating: Excellent
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taliph wrote:
dyvidd wrote:
considering it's in unoffical beta testing that's not bad...

But let's just save all the gloom and doom post back for a few more months and see how the game looks this fall.


Wasn't the mantra 'just give it 6 months' last fall?


My new mantra is "Uninstall until PS3 port or bust", and I assume at the snail pace the game is progressing with a bare bones dev team (SE has to maximize profits for shareholders) we'll be looking at a release sometime in '12, perhaps even in 3Q or 4Q '12.
#8 Mar 06 2011 at 11:07 PM Rating: Decent
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Satisiun wrote:
dyvidd wrote:
considering it's in unoffical beta testing that's not bad...


I'd say it's bad, to be honest. Going off of tangible numbers on Wikipedia (the number I am citing does have a citation), the game has shipped 630,000 copies to the NA, EU, and JP regions combined.

Now I know what some people might say; that's shipped copies, not sold copies. Okay, fair enough. Let's be generous and say only half of those shipped copies sold, so that potential 31,000-sized playerbase is a higher percentage of the people who got a copy of the game.

Even then, 31,000 / 315,000 = 0.0984...

In other words, only about 10% of people who bought a copy of the game are still playing regularly, if at all. That's a terrible rate. It gets worse if you divide that number by shipped copies (5%).

You throw in that the buddy pass that CE owners got was effectively a free copy to hand out, and it's pretty ugly. :/

Not trying to rain on any parades or anything. Just throwing out some numbers.


Since I have already bought crysta and my wife seems to like the game to some extent i will be one of the people who pays for it once it goes pay to play BUT of the 9-10% of the people who originally purchaced the game that are still playing how many will actually keep playing after it goes pay to play? They are gonna have to merge down to like 3 servers :/
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#9 Mar 06 2011 at 11:30 PM Rating: Excellent
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The sad thing is that the last patch was what a lot of people where waiting on. With the bad reaction people had to the quest patch I am willing to bet a good bit of the 31k or so who stayed for this patch are now quiting. I looked today and most servers where med to low pop.

I know after the last patch I have steped back and started playing other games. I don't know if SE will ever pull this game out of the mud but too many good games are coming out for me to spend all my time on a game thats just not fun. I will keep checking in and I mite run around a bit on my new toon but I see no reason to spend all my time on FFXIV now.
#10 Mar 06 2011 at 11:41 PM Rating: Excellent
I also agree the population seems slightly lower now than it did a couple weeks ago. The truth is, you can only do leves and craft for so long, and then you need other ways to fill your time. Until this game can provide those options, it's perfectly natural that most people will spend time playing other games until this game is filled out. Heck, I've been playing FFXI all day, and will probably be spending more time in Vana'diel until Eorzea shapes up in a few months.

Now that a more definitive timeline is in place (two more months approx until battle system revamp), it really wouldn't surprise me to see the population dip even more until then, now that people know it will be at least that long until we have the next significant changes to the game. We'll have a lot more quests added by then, but the core of the game won't really change until May or June.

Edit: I could be wrong, if companies are implemented earlier, but I'd think Yoshi-P would do the battle system first.

Edited, Mar 6th 2011 9:42pm by Thayos
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#11 Mar 06 2011 at 11:44 PM Rating: Good
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Before they took out the search thing, Kashuan was averaging about 600 players throughout the day. 800ish during JP primetime, 700 NA primetime, 400-500 otherwise.

I can't imagine those numbers having gone up since.
#12 Mar 06 2011 at 11:56 PM Rating: Excellent
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taliph wrote:
dyvidd wrote:
considering it's in unoffical beta testing that's not bad...

But let's just save all the gloom and doom post back for a few more months and see how the game looks this fall.


Wasn't the mantra 'just give it 6 months' last fall?
It was "wait til open beta". Then "wait til release". Then "wait til a couple months after release". Now that it's been 6 months since release... it's now "just wait another couple months".
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#13 Mar 07 2011 at 12:11 AM Rating: Excellent
The last time I could see the pop count on Trabia we had about 800 or so NA time 1400 JP time, also what seems to be healthy population of French players. A Dutch guy in my LS also has a French player shell as he is trying to master both english and frenchSmiley: lol

I've met 3 new players today, like just made new characters 2 of which I invited into my shell. So on my server feels like things are somewhat stable. I know they had a tough decision to make the game go live, you cant expect people to beta test if you need months of additional work on the game to be done as you don't really keep your characters. Not even the most masochistic of us would put in a solid four months of gameplay into a character they couldn't even keep. So the sad decision had to be made to basically Live Beta ( with an entry fee) the game.

in regards to servers losing population, people have grown impatient and even the faithful have begun stray and some people are just playing other games (I know we all have a ton of unfinished ones to work on) to bide the time til game is brought to whatever level they deem good enough to play. I don't believe they can bring some massive sweeping changes to the game in the time frame of a few weeks/month, game development is just not that simple and you can't rush things out half-assed and completely untested. I believe what happened however worked out for the better of the game in the long run, the other development team clearly didn't have all their ducks in a row and SE got a giant helping of humble pie. No longer are we completely in the dark and ****** around like we ALL put up with for years in FFXI. The only thing I think they could possibly do to satiate this bloodthirsty crowd is show videos of projects they have in development. However the SE forums go up soon so we will see what manner of developer feedback and insight they will give us then.

Edited, Mar 7th 2011 12:12am by Luceo

Edited, Mar 7th 2011 12:12am by Luceo
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#14 Mar 07 2011 at 12:17 AM Rating: Good
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It's wait until SE send you an email saying the game is ready to play. Until then either beta test, play something else, or quit all together. I want to play a finished FFXIV as much as everyone else here but we can't magic make the game done. It's going to take time and effort from this new team. Realistically it won't be ready until this fall.
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#15 Mar 07 2011 at 1:20 AM Rating: Excellent
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It's wait until SE send you an email saying the game is ready to play. Until then either beta test, play something else, or quit all together. I want to play a finished FFXIV as much as everyone else here but we can't magic make the game done. It's going to take time and effort from this new team. Realistically it won't be ready until this fall.


Totally agree. Find a somewhat-active linkshell, or schedule times to be online at the same times as your friends, and do some leves, craft some items, etc. It's possible to still have fun in this beta testing portion of the game. The absolute worst thing to do right now, imo, is spend countless hours grinding exp and crafts. If you do that, of course you're going to get really bored! This game is best played in small doses right now, because there are only a few things to do.

Given what Yoshi-P has said, a very good guess is this game will be PS3-worthy by fall. Could even be later. I don't see it being ready any earlier though. That said, I expect those of us who are still "testing" to have a lot more things to do months by the start of summer. Until then, I'm going to keep doing what I've been doing... log in a few times per week, kick out some leves, make some rings, mine some rocks and chat with friends.
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#16 Mar 07 2011 at 2:59 AM Rating: Good
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It was "wait til open beta". Then "wait til release". Then "wait til a couple months after release". Now that it's been 6 months since release... it's now "just wait another couple months".


Last fall we did not know that they would restart the development from scratch.

If you think the change in management did not affect the development of this game negatively at all, you are naive.

Now whether that's 'acceptable' or not is up to each individual (I bet everyone who ******* here will still be around in few months anyway) but the reason is simple and logical. If Tanaka was still in charge a lot more could have been done during the time when Yoshida and his crew was just catching up and determining what to do, as well as only starting to develop overhauls that need months of development time to finish.

If Tanaka was still in charge 6 months would have been the deadline. Nobody knew this would happen, and 'this' has changed everything. Period.

Edited, Mar 7th 2011 12:01pm by Hyanmen
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#17 Mar 07 2011 at 4:28 AM Rating: Decent
His recent posts say that every patch from now on will contain quests, side quests or main storyline who knows but at least there being added. He also goes on to say he is going to release some info about companies soon and a possible update at the end of March, I am waiting too see what they bring as he states some pretty big changes to how the world current interacts with its player base, it's going to get dangerous in Eorzea (apparently) so I am going to stick around to see how that pans out.
#18 Mar 07 2011 at 4:54 AM Rating: Default
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IlethiusTarraban wrote:
His recent posts say that every patch from now on will contain quests, side quests or main storyline who knows but at least there being added. He also goes on to say he is going to release some info about companies soon and a possible update at the end of March, I am waiting too see what they bring as he states some pretty big changes to how the world current interacts with its player base, it's going to get dangerous in Eorzea (apparently) so I am going to stick around to see how that pans out.


He also said we would see patches twice a month.... that only happened in February. We only got one patch in January... and we got two patches in February. Not a good start to Yoshi-P's track record, if you ask me.

Edited, Mar 7th 2011 2:56am by oberonqa
#19 Mar 07 2011 at 5:12 AM Rating: Good
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oberonqa wrote:
He also said we would see patches twice a month.... that only happened in February. We only got one patch in January... and we got two patches in February. Not a good start to Yoshi-P's track record, if you ask me.

Edited, Mar 7th 2011 2:56am by oberonqa


So you're counting the time before the first letter came out and he announced the "twice a month" patches against him? Seems a bit unfair to me.

I'm surprised at how the tone of the boards has shifted since that last patch came out. It seems as though most people pinned all of their hopes on those quests.
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#20 Mar 07 2011 at 5:13 AM Rating: Good
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He also said we would see patches twice a month.... that only happened in February. We only got one patch in January... and we got two patches in February. Not a good start to Yoshi-P's track record, if you ask me.


We didn't get a patch in January. They hadn't even started their plans at that time and were catching up to the current development as well as preparing the changes in the team's structure. Once they had established the new pace of development, updates have been coming at a steady pace. I'm sorry if to you this is somehow unacceptable but so far everything is going just as someone with reasonable expectations would expect.

Maybe you should blame Wada for dumping Tanaka for Yoshida instead. If not for that move there wouldn't have been such a long pause in the first place.
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#21 Mar 07 2011 at 6:36 AM Rating: Good
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Hyanmen wrote:
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He also said we would see patches twice a month.... that only happened in February. We only got one patch in January... and we got two patches in February. Not a good start to Yoshi-P's track record, if you ask me.


We didn't get a patch in January. They hadn't even started their plans at that time and were catching up to the current development as well as preparing the changes in the team's structure. Once they had established the new pace of development, updates have been coming at a steady pace. I'm sorry if to you this is somehow unacceptable but so far everything is going just as someone with reasonable expectations would expect.

Maybe you should blame Wada for dumping Tanaka for Yoshida instead. If not for that move there wouldn't have been such a long pause in the first place.

Spot on Hyanmen, Since they commited to 2 per month they have done that. In the initial mess I was calling for Wada to get the chop but instead he sacks the dev team diverting the attention away from himself. I blame neither the new or the old team. I blame Wada still for this whole mess.
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#22 Mar 07 2011 at 11:21 AM Rating: Good
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taliph wrote:
Wasn't the mantra 'just give it 6 months' last fall?


My mantra was give it six months to a year. Now considering we are in month 3 of the new guy's reign, 3-9 months should be needed to get the game fixed. I'm leaning more towards 9, at best, just because the devs have no idea what the game should be like.


Thayos wrote:
I also agree the population seems slightly lower now than it did a couple weeks ago. The truth is, you can only do leves and craft for so long, and then you need other ways to fill your time.


That's one thing I really liked about GW, do a few quests, then do a mission, do a few quests, then do a mission. Even though proph takes forever, it's at least paced the right way and you aren't told to go level one class for a week until you can get to the next part in the story.


Hyanman wrote:
Maybe you should blame Wada for dumping Tanaka for Yoshida instead.


I can't blame SE for that. The former producer made a game that by all reasonable accounts was a flop and will need millions more to fix and millions more to recover the tarnished image. They thought they could make a game without much of anything to do save for grind and expect people to magically like it because it has the FF name and horsebirds chocobos, which haven't even been implemented yet. And still no summoners.
#23 Mar 07 2011 at 6:02 PM Rating: Good
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Hyanmen wrote:
Quote:
He also said we would see patches twice a month.... that only happened in February. We only got one patch in January... and we got two patches in February. Not a good start to Yoshi-P's track record, if you ask me.


We didn't get a patch in January. They hadn't even started their plans at that time and were catching up to the current development as well as preparing the changes in the team's structure. Once they had established the new pace of development, updates have been coming at a steady pace. I'm sorry if to you this is somehow unacceptable but so far everything is going just as someone with reasonable expectations would expect.

Maybe you should blame Wada for dumping Tanaka for Yoshida instead. If not for that move there wouldn't have been such a long pause in the first place.


Actually we did get a patch in January. I keep a copy of all the patches, so when I ultimately decide to uninstall FFXIV, at least I won't have to re-download all the patches if I decide (for one reason or another) to install it again.

The patch file is D2011.01.18.0000 and was just under 10MB's in size.

EDIT: And here's a screenshot of my patch backup folder, which has all the patches released to-date. :)

http://img806.imageshack.us/i/ffxivpatches.jpg/

Edited, Mar 7th 2011 4:05pm by oberonqa
#24 Mar 07 2011 at 7:00 PM Rating: Good
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KingWinterclaw wrote:
They thought they could make a game without much of anything to do save for grind and expect people to magically like it because it has the FF name and horsebirds chocobos, which haven't even been implemented yet.
Worked for FFXI. >.> *runs*

Edited, Mar 7th 2011 8:00pm by Ruisu
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#25 Mar 07 2011 at 7:02 PM Rating: Decent
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Ruisu wrote:
KingWinterclaw wrote:
They thought they could make a game without much of anything to do save for grind and expect people to magically like it because it has the FF name and horsebirds chocobos, which haven't even been implemented yet.
Worked for FFXI. >.> *runs*

Edited, Mar 7th 2011 8:00pm by Ruisu


Yea, I'm not even gonna touch that one. :)
#26 Mar 07 2011 at 7:05 PM Rating: Good
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Technically the amount of active subscribers is over 9000...
#27 Mar 07 2011 at 7:08 PM Rating: Good
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Verecund wrote:
Technically the amount of active subscribers is over 9000...


What, nine-thousand!? There's no way that can be right!

(Come on, people. Someone was bound to do it.)
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#28 Mar 07 2011 at 7:10 PM Rating: Default
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Satisiun wrote:
Verecund wrote:
Technically the amount of active subscribers is over 9000...


What, nine-thousand!? There's no way that can be right!

(Come on, people. Someone was bound to do it.)


Well.... it would have been funnier if Verecund said the active amount of subscribers was over 1.21

...

1.21 GIGAWATTS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

;)
#29 Mar 08 2011 at 7:30 AM Rating: Decent
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oberonqa wrote:
Satisiun wrote:
Verecund wrote:
Technically the amount of active subscribers is over 9000...


What, nine-thousand!? There's no way that can be right!

(Come on, people. Someone was bound to do it.)


Well.... it would have been funnier if Verecund said the active amount of subscribers was over 1.21

...

1.21 GIGAWATTS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

;)

As long as you dont go over 80 miles per hour, i dont really see the problem there.
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#30 Mar 08 2011 at 7:34 AM Rating: Good
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KojiroSoma wrote:
oberonqa wrote:
Satisiun wrote:
Verecund wrote:
Technically the amount of active subscribers is over 9000...


What, nine-thousand!? There's no way that can be right!

(Come on, people. Someone was bound to do it.)


Well.... it would have been funnier if Verecund said the active amount of subscribers was over 1.21

...

1.21 GIGAWATTS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

;)

As long as you dont go over 80 miles per hour, i dont really see the problem there.


Vegeta, what did the speedometer say about his velocity?
#31 Mar 08 2011 at 8:15 AM Rating: Decent
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ForceOfMeh wrote:
KojiroSoma wrote:
oberonqa wrote:
Satisiun wrote:
Verecund wrote:
Technically the amount of active subscribers is over 9000...


What, nine-thousand!? There's no way that can be right!

(Come on, people. Someone was bound to do it.)


Well.... it would have been funnier if Verecund said the active amount of subscribers was over 1.21

...

1.21 GIGAWATTS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

;)

As long as you dont go over 80 miles per hour, i dont really see the problem there.


Vegeta, what did the speedometer say about his velocity?


Oh I know I can get up to 88 miles per hour... no sweat. :)
#32 Mar 08 2011 at 12:10 PM Rating: Decent
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I'm pretty sure there are many people who bought the game and are just trolling .. waiting .. for the game to progress past Beta (think its there now) past the launch (pretty well now) and closer to the Xpac/PS3 launch.

There will be lots of new characters at that point, and it won't feel as bad as trying to rank low jobs currently.
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#33 Mar 08 2011 at 3:30 PM Rating: Excellent
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Sadly, I've fallen into that "Why should I play now if it's not costing me anything?" category of people. I'm just waiting for someone to come tell me, "Hey, the game's done now!" and then maybe I'll log on. After I read about the disappointment of the quests, I didn't even patch yet. :(
#34 Mar 09 2011 at 2:49 PM Rating: Decent
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Edited, Mar 9th 2011 3:52pm by timothyjoelwright
#35 Mar 10 2011 at 2:57 PM Rating: Decent
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Rift released, the FFXIV populated should now be reduced to a small handful of japanese players and maybe a thousand or two english speaking players.

Once SWTOR releases there should only be japanese players left in the game.. Once Guild wars 2 releases there should be only 1 server left with a population of 30 people..

By the time Titan and diablo 3 releases FFXIV should be dead..

My time line should be pretty accurate.

edit00

It doesn't matter if a new game copies WoW, as long as they reproduced Wow add a boat of new features and expand on the entire gaming experience it will automatically succeed and sell millions of copies and be successful on day one.. Assuming their server doesn't implode on itself.

Rift is the first of very few game to actually pull it off.. SWTOR will follow suit, while SQuare enix continues to try and add content to FFXIV xD

Edited, Mar 10th 2011 3:59pm by nick2412
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#36 Mar 10 2011 at 3:53 PM Rating: Good
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SE cannibalized themselves. A lot of players (myself included) stayed loyal to SE with FFXI for many many years despite lingering complaints and failures time and again on the part of SE.

A lot of the discontent 11 players had been dealing with in terms of content and updates (actual and promised) seemed to lighten up with the prospect of 14. Limitations, annoyances, and lack of resources were no longer sufficient reasons for poor quality - this was a brand new start

The failure of 14 to launch as a playable game divided fan from fanatic. Many may have liked FF games at some point but are no longer willing to waste time, money, and patience on something so hopelessly inferior to any common MMO product. And with that stopped playing FFXIV.

Since then the door is now open for the eroding FFXI base to go out and try any number of other MMO's. Chances are, they are finding better games faster than FFXIV can get it's act together and now have even greater expectations of FFXIV should they return - but likely will not.
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