Lubriderm the Fussy wrote:
Am I wrong for liking FFXIV as a low level player, and hoping they can truly fix the game, but thinking that a Henry IV St. Crispin's day speech on how it will be the best game ever is ridiculous?
No, it's called being realistic. Let's pretend I'm a Lions fan (I feel dirty just saying that)
Realistic: The Lions have some good players, but they'll probably still end up 6-10 or so.
Realistically Optimistic: If the Lions draft well, they have a shot at going 8-8.
Very optimistic: The Lions have a good shot at going 10-6 and making the playoffs this year.
The OP: The Lions will go 16-0 in the regular season, win the super bowl, and the NFC's pro bowl team will be all Lions players.
Really, I want FFXIV to be successful. I think it's a reasonable statement to say that everyone on this board does. I'm not saying I hope it fails, I'm not saying I hope it gets shut down forever; I -want- it to be a good game and I -want- it to have a healthy subscriber base.
At launch, I -wanted- it to be immensely popular and become as well known as WoW, Aion, or other popular MMORPGs. However a game's highest intake of subscribers at any one time is launch, and that ship has sailed. PS3 has a chance of bringing roughly 250k-600k players into the game and drastic overhauls could bring back 150k-250k of the players who have quit, as well as possibly 50k-250k players willing to try the game who passed at launch. Even with the most generous of estimates, the chances of passing 1-1.5 million, while theoretically possible, are rather low.
Once you start making the statement that it's going to have over 10 million sales on PS3 alone, you're becoming absurd.
EDIT: I should post in a new post but I don't want to bump. Just throwing out some more statistical data for the OP to ignore.
Starting with the PS2 era of Final Fantasy titles: (All sources Wikipedia, sorry)
FF10 "The game has sold 6.6 million copies as of January 2004."
FF11 Couldn't locate total sales data, but it's pretty well known that the player base never reached 1 million among all platforms.
FF12 "As of March 2007, the game has shipped over 5.2 million copies worldwide"
FF13 "As of May 18, 2010, Final Fantasy XIII had sold 5.5 million copies worldwide"
And as I've pointed out, there are three times the number of PS2s as there are PS3s. When you factor in that FFXI never reached a million active subscribing players across PC, PS2, -and- 360 in comparison to over 5 million sales (remember also that FF13 was on 360 -and- PS3, this isn't a PS3 only sales figure), the chances of 10 million PS3 users buying FF14... not looking so hot. Edited, Mar 13th 2011 5:33pm by Mikhalia