Forum Settings
       
This Forum is Read Only

Moon Phases and CraftingFollow

#1 Jun 04 2011 at 1:48 AM Rating: Good
Scholar
26 posts
As part of my log parser I collect crafting data. This data is compiled into a database. I did a mapping of Eorzea time and moon phase to see if there was a correlation for failure during certain cycles.

The raw data is here: http://www.ffxivbattle.com/recentcrafting.php

The summary of the results is listed here: http://ffxivbattle.com/ws/mooncycle.php

 
Moon Cycle Data: 
Cycle	Success Count	Failure Count	Chance of Failure 
Last Quarter	1823	159	8% 
New Moon	1700	142	8% 
Waxing Crescent	1727	164	9% 
Full Moon	2221	240	10% 
Waning Crescent	1260	131	10% 
Waxing Gibbous	1667	187	11% 
First Quarter	1511	180	11% 
Waning Gibbous	1748	201	11% 


I think it is interesting that most crafting happened during the full moon as it is a common rumor this is the best time to craft. I suspect when I get a broader set of users it will balance out showing that there is almost no change based on the current moon phase.

The data is based on 24 players with a total of 15,000 records.

I did an additional breakdown by Eorzea hour to see if there is any significance to the time of day as well.

 
Eorzea Time By Hour: 
 
Hour	Success Count	Failure Count	Chance of Failure 
0	528	52	9% 
1	589	42	7% 
2	565	63	11% 
3	583	58	9% 
4	581	55	9% 
5	547	72	13% 
6	556	65	11% 
7	587	72	12% 
8	591	60	10% 
9	573	66	11% 
10	561	56	9% 
11	551	56	10% 
12	552	50	9% 
13	563	72	12% 
14	594	52	8% 
15	548	61	11% 
16	590	49	8% 
17	566	67	11% 
18	597	59	9% 
19	577	59	10% 
20	570	61	10% 
21	599	50	8% 
22	534	53	9% 
23	555	54	9% 

Let me know if there is a stat that would be interesting to see. I don't really see any correlation to time and cycle.
#2 Jun 04 2011 at 1:57 AM Rating: Decent
Scholar
***
1,523 posts
Is this data from just one recipe with all players at the same rank and the same stats?
____________________________
____(>°°)D_->__(O°°)>-_<(;,,;)>_C-(°°Q)__O~~_t(°°<)_(;o0)___<(;,,;)>_<(;,,;)>_<(;,,;)>_<(;,,;)>_<(;,,;)>_____

#3 Jun 04 2011 at 2:29 AM Rating: Good
Guru
**
691 posts
RedGalka wrote:
Is this data from just one recipe with all players at the same rank and the same stats?

Even if there was some discrepancy in the ratio of rank:recipe and thus would be inadmissible in any sort of accredited scientific publication, his sample size is sizable enough to present reasonably compelling evidence that moon phase and hour appear to have little appreciable effect on the overall success/failure rate or recipes. I would, however, be interested in seeing the numbers of relative HQs, for completeness sake. Additionally, I suppose if we're being thorough, an examination of only recipes done at and below rank would be interesting to see if there is a more appreciable difference when the base failure rate is higher.
#4 Jun 04 2011 at 3:59 AM Rating: Good
Scholar
26 posts
Quote:
Is this data from just one recipe with all players at the same rank and the same stats?


This is based on a sampling of 24 characters over time with a mix of local leves and crafting. I updated the page to return the breakdown based on individual and moon phase. It is quite long so I am just including the link.

http://ffxivbattle.com/ws/mooncycle.php

Quote:
Even if there was some discrepancy in the ratio of rank:recipe and thus would be inadmissible in any sort of accredited scientific publication, his sample size is sizable enough to present reasonably compelling evidence that moon phase and hour appear to have little appreciable effect on the overall success/failure rate or recipes. I would, however, be interested in seeing the numbers of relative HQs, for completeness sake. Additionally, I suppose if we're being thorough, an examination of only recipes done at and below rank would be interesting to see if there is a more appreciable difference when the base failure rate is higher.


This would be an interesting stat to get. I will try to get the breakdown next.


----
I made a mistake on my failure rate calculation so the new number is slightly different:

 
Moon Phase Data: 
 
Phase	Success Count	Failure Count	Chance of Failure 
New Moon	1700	142	7% 
Waxing Crescent	1727	164	8% 
Last Quarter	1823	159	8% 
Full Moon	2221	240	9% 
Waning Crescent	1260	131	9% 
Waxing Gibbous	1667	187	10% 
First Quarter	1511	180	10% 
Waning Gibbous	1748	201	10% 
#5 Jun 04 2011 at 10:50 AM Rating: Good
***
3,530 posts
Good sample size, but unless it's all the same recipe, same Rank, same stats, and same gear, then it's all useless.
____________________________
"... he called to himself a wizard, named Gallery, hoping by this means to escape the paying of the fifteen hundred crowns..." (Machen 15)

"Thus opium is pleasing... on account of the agreeable delirium it produces." (Burke para.6)

"I could only read so much for this paper and the syphilis poem had to go."
#6 Jun 04 2011 at 10:59 AM Rating: Excellent
Scholar
26 posts
I think the pattern of how users behave make the aggregate data useful. Since the users almost always craft the same item several times in a row it establishes the base of mean failure over several attempts. It would be interesting to see the results from users crafting the same items in sequence throwing out the outlyers where the crafted less than 4 items of the same type in sequence.
#7 Jun 04 2011 at 11:24 AM Rating: Excellent
Guru
**
691 posts
What is your qualification for "failure"? Is this a by-action dataset or by-synth? By-synth is fundumentally flawed due to user choices having a significant effect on the outcome of the synth as opposed to, say, FFXI. If you are recording by-action, are these only Standard actions, or include all actions? Realistically speaking, my previous comment aside, there are far too many variables to fully explain the system in one single test. For instance, did you record the number of Success! occurrences? These may be tied to the moon cycle, but not the chance of Failure!. Plainly put, without evidence of an appreciable benefit to crafting at one time or another, the best practice would be to act on the assumption that time had no baring on crafting, whether or not that was true.

Personally, I do not believe a temporally modulated crafting bonus would be appropriate for this game, and I find it unlikely that SE added one. Anyone looking at FFXIV from an overall design perspective would quickly come to the conclusion that due to the prevalence of casually focused play-when-you-can content and daily recurring events, a system that encouraged people to wait for just the right time would clash directly with the overall design flow of the game itself.

Edited, Jun 4th 2011 1:25pm by Hulan
#8 Jun 04 2011 at 11:44 AM Rating: Excellent
Scholar
26 posts
Quote:
What is your qualification for "failure"? Is this a by-action dataset or by-synth? By-synth is fundumentally flawed due to user choices having a significant effect on the outcome of the synth as opposed to, say, FFXI. If you are recording by-action, are these only Standard actions, or include all actions? Realistically speaking, my previous comment aside, there are far too many variables to fully explain the system in one single test. For instance, did you record the number of Success! occurrences? These may be tied to the moon cycle, but not the chance of Failure!. Plainly put, without evidence of an appreciable benefit to crafting at one time or another, the best practice would be to act on the assumption that time had no baring on crafting, whether or not that was true.


This is an excellent point and one I completely missed. I do keep all success and failure actions not just the results of the synth.

I am working on this one right now as it is WAY more useful than the rest of the data. I will do a summary of success / fail over the type of action (Standard, Rapid or Bold).
#9 Jun 04 2011 at 11:51 AM Rating: Decent
**
821 posts
Very nice data :D

To make the actual parser more accurate I would put some restrictions on the people compiling data for that test.

NO Crafting gear at all!(except of tool of course^^)
NO use of any type of crafting abilitites.
NO other synth type than Standard.

As much as I appreciate the sample size, it does show that there is a difference in failure rate, but as long as we don't know the actual circumstances they crafted under(Craft Rank<->Recipe Rank, Gear, Abilitits used etc) these numbers could either be accurate or completely off and useless :/

But keep it going :D I'm waaaaaay too lazy to do something like that myself, so I appreciate any effort people put into this, especially since I want to know the details about crafting so bad(for the purpose of maximizing the chance of HQs)
#10 Jun 04 2011 at 1:01 PM Rating: Decent
Scholar
***
1,523 posts
Quote:
Personally, I do not believe a temporally modulated crafting bonus would be appropriate for this game, and I find it unlikely that SE added one. Anyone looking at FFXIV from an overall design perspective would quickly come to the conclusion that due to the prevalence of casually focused play-when-you-can content and daily recurring events, a system that encouraged people to wait for just the right time would clash directly with the overall design flow of the game itself.


I agree with you, but the thing that's bothering me is the book at the Conjurer's Guild that add elements to each hour of the day. Is this just lore or did they really go that far as to create a link between the elements used in a recipe & the elements of the hours. And if they did that, then one begins to wonder about moonphase, weather, day & month, besides the standard rank, procedure, stats.
____________________________
____(>°°)D_->__(O°°)>-_<(;,,;)>_C-(°°Q)__O~~_t(°°<)_(;o0)___<(;,,;)>_<(;,,;)>_<(;,,;)>_<(;,,;)>_<(;,,;)>_____

#11 Jun 04 2011 at 4:39 PM Rating: Good
Scholar
26 posts
When breaking down each action and the chance for success it appears to return the same results as the chances for success at the recipe level.

 
Moon Phase by Action and Quality: 
 
Phase	Action	Success Count	Failure Count	Chance of Failure 
First Quarter	Standard	7739	226	2% 
Full Moon	Standard	10411	231	2% 
Last Quarter	Standard	9519	213	2% 
New Moon	Standard	8076	187	2% 
Waning Crescent	Standard	6582	213	3% 
Waning Gibbous	Standard	8723	263	2% 
Waxing Crescent	Standard	9283	232	2% 
Waxing Gibbous	Standard	7967	252	3% 
 
Phase	Action	Success Count	Failure Count	Chance of Failure 
First Quarter	Rapid	31		0% 
Full Moon	Rapid	43	2	4% 
Last Quarter	Rapid	23	1	4% 
New Moon	Rapid	17	1	5% 
Waning Crescent	Rapid	7	1	12% 
Waning Gibbous	Rapid	24	3	11% 
Waxing Crescent	Rapid	41	1	2% 
Waxing Gibbous	Rapid	18	2	10% 
 
Phase	Action	Success Count	Failure Count	Chance of Failure 
First Quarter	Bold	317	2	0.62% 
Full Moon	Bold	1480	6	0.40% 
Last Quarter	Bold	261		0% 
New Moon	Bold	338	2	0.58% 
Waning Crescent	Bold	206	2	0.96% 
Waning Gibbous	Bold	357	5	1% 
Waxing Crescent	Bold	920	3	0.32% 
Waxing Gibbous	Bold	520	6	1% 


This is by returning the success or failure of quality increases broken down by the moon phase split across each type of action (bold, rapid, standard).

I don't see anything significant in the results that would say there is an unusual result. From every way i measure this data it appears to be uniform in regards to time. Even considering equipment it doesn't change the overall chances when you look at the type of behavior. This is expanding on the results of the recipe level but applying a much large sample set since each recipe takes 8 or so actions each. The total number of actions out of the 15k recipes is 74757.
#12 Jun 04 2011 at 9:23 PM Rating: Good
***
1,636 posts
Your data seems to at best 'fail to prove that moon phase does affect synths'. I'll say the same thing that I've said to everyone whose attempted this type of thing, You have to be 100% uniform in order to prove somthing and you are not. You have plenty of tests, which is a good thing, but you're not approaching this as scientifically as you should be, you're observing trends at best.

Frankly, I have no idea why people assumed the moon phases did affect crafting results, but you've provided plenty of evidence to suggest that it does not.
____________________________


#13 Jun 04 2011 at 9:52 PM Rating: Good
Scholar
26 posts
The motivation for this was based on rumor that full moon was best for crafting. The goal of the parser is to provide individuals with some history and basic performance information. Because of that the data is not suited for the data I am trying to extract. Given that, the overall trend shows no evidence to support a variance based on time.

I'm going to be adding some extra features to help but I think I can at least combat circumstantial rumors about the moon phase. It's better than a guess at least and may be useful as patches go in to alert when changes have been made. I'm going to put it away for now and start looking at more fun stats like battle damage.

Thanks for all of the suggestions it made this a fun weekend project.
#14 Jun 05 2011 at 1:21 AM Rating: Decent
Scholar
***
2,801 posts
Hulan wrote:
RedGalka wrote:
Is this data from just one recipe with all players at the same rank and the same stats?

Even if there was some discrepancy in the ratio of rank:recipe and thus would be inadmissible in any sort of accredited scientific publication, his sample size is sizable enough to present reasonably compelling evidence that moon phase and hour appear to have little appreciable effect on the overall success/failure rate or recipes. I would, however, be interested in seeing the numbers of relative HQs, for completeness sake. Additionally, I suppose if we're being thorough, an examination of only recipes done at and below rank would be interesting to see if there is a more appreciable difference when the base failure rate is higher.


QFT.

I was going to add very similar thoughts, but why reinvent the wheel?
____________________________
WoW -- Zaia -- Dragonmaw -- Mage 80 BABY! Alchemy 450
Also... Hunter 62, Rogue 52, Warrior 66, Warlock 43, Death Knight 70, Shaman Who Cares? ;)

FFXI -- Caia -- Retired/Deleted -- Blm 75, Alchemy 97
Pandimonium server - Rank 10 - Bastok

Zaela Rdm -- 35, Alchemy 45 -- Forced into retirement because I didn't have the right kind of credit card. Hope it was worth 18 bucks a month, SE.

This forum is read only
This Forum is Read Only!
Recent Visitors: 20 All times are in CST
Anonymous Guests (20)