The whole point of citation is to actually cite something. You can't just say, "something in this link proves that I am correct; take my word for it." That just brings us back to square one... asking for proof.
Edited, Sep 12th 2011 1:02am by KaneKitty
Unless you were at GDC last year, or otherwise have GDC vault access, me posting the link to the video won't do you any good. But okay, fine, I dug around the vault to find the video, and I will transcribe for you the relevant section. http://www.gdcvault.com/play/1014708/Paying-to-Win-BATTLEFIELD-HEROES
Time: 31:20 onward
So we decided to look at our forums, do some data mining on the forums,
and looking at the engagement level of the forums across the userbase.
So this pie chart shows the entire userbase divided by different types of forum usage.
Seventy-eight percent of our users never touch the forums,
they never even click the link to get to get access to the top level of the forums.
A huge portion of the users just not using that feature of the game.
Twenty percent of our users visit the forums to read, at least once, but they never post.
These are people who browse forums, but don't participate in any discussions.
And that green slab, two percent, is the number of people who actually post on the forums,
as a proportion of the entire userbase.
Whether you choose to believe that transcription or not, I don't really care. But that's as close as you're going to get to it. This apparently was not, I admit, the information I thought it was, as he only ends up talking about BF:Heroes, during this discussion, and doesn't mention any general statistics.
Now I will have to try and remember where I saw that information.
In the meantime, just looking at these statistics gives you an idea. They had an active forum userbase of 2% in a F2P online game. I openly stated that the 5-10% statistic would absolutely fluctuate based on the title. F2P games would have a smaller %, for various reasons, the lower barrier to entry being the obvious one.
Games like Final Fantasy XIV, which have gone through a media blender, suffered a critical and financially failed launch, etc. and now retain only the most hardcore userbase, are likely to have a larger % of forum posters.
The number is still not going to be anywhere close to 50%. About 3% of the shipped
userbase is on the forum. Obviously, since shipping, it's very likely the audience has diminished significantly. What number of those copies never sold, or are no longer active is up in the air.
- MrMissile, your suggestion of a 25% forum adoption means that the current active userbase is 86,000 players.
- The average that I mentioned, of about 10% means there would be an active userbase of 215,000 players.
I would say that 25% of a playerbase seems high, but not extraordinarily out of the question, given the unfortunate circumstances around the game's launch.
However, I did mention that the game's forum adoption is probably between 10-20% because of this. And I stand by it. Leaving the average active userbase (players who have logged in at least once in the past month or so) somewhere between 100 and 200,000 players across all regions.
Please remember that active userbase just means someone who has logged in essentially within the last 30 days, it does not mean players that login and are playing regularly. 50% or more of the average server population at any given time probably represents a portion of the playerbase that plays far more actively than others, or never logs out. (Please do not argue this statistic, I'm not claiming to have any facts on this, nor that it is the correct number, it's simply a statement used to call clarity to the idea of what active playerbase even means.)
Do I have any proof on the forum adoption other than sound reasoning? No, and I admit that the number could be higher or lower, but it seems very unlikely. One thing I can say for certain, is, ideally, it would be great for FFXIV to have an active forum adoption of 5-10%, because if 25% of the userbase feels so inclined to join the forums to have their opinions heard, that means the game is in a state where the customer is generally dissatisfied.
So whatever the statistic is now, I hope that in a year or two, after the PS3 launch, etc. we can look forward to an adoption rate of less than 10%. In the mean time, I would still wager on the number falling somewhere between 10 and 20. TL;DR
Don't hope for the forum adoption rate to rise significantly, that's the wrong thing to hope for. Ideally, the number of players ought to rise, without the number of registered forum users going up too much, thus driving the adoption rate down. As a thermometer, a more active number of forum users generally means there's more to complain about. Edited, Sep 12th 2011 8:46am by RamseySylph