I'm sure a lot of people (maybe half of the current playerbase) will pay the first month, maybe even the second, but as they look around and see the game even more deserted than before, they'll decide to postpone renewing their subscription until the game can attract some new blood.
My hunch is that SE doesn't want to deal with the costs of supporting live servers for a small but substantial number of non-playing players, and is confidant that, even if 90% of the already small playerbase quits, they'll get them back when 2.0 officially launches.
For those of you playing, I hope you enjoy, but SE is basically telling us that this game won't be something they're proud of for at least another year.
2:1 saying they will stick around. Lindblum is pretty populated and I can see a lot of players sticking around. Even if half of them left it would still be pretty populated.
You guys don't take much into account when you through these biased numbers around. Yes, some people will leave, some will stay, some will join as new players, some will return from when the game was released, some will leave after a few months. It will be a constant cycle. With each patch people will say "oh they put jobs in" "oh they added new primal battle and 2 new instaced raids" and they will want to check out the game.
I don't think its to a point where people say "oh they are re-doing the game I'm quitting until its finished"... we've known they are re-creating the game for a while. I'd say we are nearing the ends of the beta phase and by December they may be in a position that charging would be fine.
edit: also you must realize that the people who post on the forums are the 'vocal minority' more people are actually playing the game rather than posting on forums. Your estimate was 50% of the player base will stick around... I'm going on the optimistic route and say 80% will stick around. Edited, Oct 14th 2011 11:23am by RemVye