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FFXIV Failure (Prime Reason) (if)?Follow

#102je355804, Posted: Nov 02 2011 at 5:16 PM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post) Again I ask... why are you here then? To tell people that a game we in general like are wrong? Is that really why you spend time at this forum?
#103 Nov 02 2011 at 5:34 PM Rating: Excellent
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You don't need to quote a page full of comments for every one line comment you make.
#104 Nov 02 2011 at 5:37 PM Rating: Excellent
I think the idiom "Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me." is coming into play here. To be frank, I guess I can't really be surprised at skepticism of players about version 2.0. However, considering it is a multi-million dollar company with their reputation already under scrutiny...I can't really see SE making the same mistake twice.
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#105 Nov 02 2011 at 6:24 PM Rating: Good
StateAlchemist wrote:
I think the idiom "Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me." is coming into play here. To be frank, I guess I can't really be surprised at skepticism of players about version 2.0. However, considering it is a multi-million dollar company with their reputation already under scrutiny...I can't really see SE making the same mistake twice.


I think the issue is over the years, SE just has a habit of implementing things poorly (not everything, just some things). FFXI is the perfect example, how many times did they announce something, everyone praises, it gets released...and blah. Now I get, this is a different team, different people, but still, you associate SE with FF regardless of who's in charge. This is why people are skeptical. The good news is, most things Yoshida has done thus far has been positive with very few negative remarks.

This is again why marketing the game heavily will help a ton.
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#106 Nov 02 2011 at 6:29 PM Rating: Excellent
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StateAlchemist of Amestris wrote:
I think the idiom "Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me." is coming into play here. To be frank, I guess I can't really be surprised at skepticism of players about version 2.0. However, considering it is a multi-million dollar company with their reputation already under scrutiny...I can't really see SE making the same mistake twice.


It isn't necessarily that. I actually think the game will be a really good MMO. I'm just not convinced it will sell or succeed after all that it has been through.
#107je355804, Posted: Nov 02 2011 at 8:12 PM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post) I think the game is a big time success.
#108 Nov 02 2011 at 8:37 PM Rating: Excellent
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je355804 wrote:

I think the game is a big time success.


Really? What a shocker. You think the game has already passed WoW in total subscriptions. We could show you black and white numbers of how few people play it, yet you would just respond "FFXIV is much more successful than World of Warcraft. I logged on the other day and there were tons of people playing. You can claim WoW has more subscribers, but I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree."
#109je355804, Posted: Nov 02 2011 at 9:10 PM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post) It has passed WoW. The beta had more players than WoW had.
#110 Nov 02 2011 at 9:28 PM Rating: Excellent
I wouldn't judge success by subscribers. To me WoW was a failure since it failed to interest me. In that regard, yes FFXIV is already mroe successful then WoW...to ME. Of course this is all in relation to myself and not to society as a whole. Please don't mistake my words. :)
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#111 Nov 02 2011 at 11:37 PM Rating: Excellent
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StateAlchemist wrote:
I wouldn't judge success by subscribers. To me WoW was a failure since it failed to interest me. In that regard, yes FFXIV is already mroe successful then WoW...to ME. Of course this is all in relation to myself and not to society as a whole.


Success in the eyes of the developers is subscriber based. They produced a product with the goal of making money and if they don't meet their bottom line then they have failed.

I also think that XIV has failed, at least so far, for the players on the personal level you are referring to SA. One in ten people who purchased this game still actively login to play it though it's still free. That fact alone is enough to make the generalization that the vast majority of people who have purchased and tried XIV agree that it is a failure thus far.
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HaibaneRenmei wrote:
30 bucks is almost free

cocodojo wrote:
Its personal preference and all, but yes we need to educate WoW players that this is OUR game, these are Characters and not Toons. Time to beat that into them one at a time.
#112 Nov 02 2011 at 11:43 PM Rating: Excellent
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je355804 wrote:
It has passed WoW. The beta had more players than WoW had.
That is certainly one deluded way to look at things.
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#113 Nov 03 2011 at 4:17 AM Rating: Default
In the end of the day, when 2.0 comes out and PS3 release happens, if SE has a succesful advertising campaign, they will get s#itloads of new players at least trying out the game. At that point it doesn't matter if the original launch was bad and if the internet was full of bad reviews.

There is a reason why our houses are filled with ice-cream makers, fondue sets and other "oh that looks good" purchases... We buy anything that shines if the sales pitch is good.
At that point, if the game is good (which I am pretty sure it will be since I am already really liking 14 and I just got back to it 2 weeks ago) 14 will actually gain players and the launch of 2010 is something that bards will sing of and the few people who actually did experience it (yes I believe we will be minority) will see themselves writing sentences such as "I am from before the 2.0 era" and people going "woah, hardcore!"

There is lots of people in the world who have never heard of 14 or even Final Fantasy... or MMORPG or even the idea of playing a game online, let alone read reviews of a game they might buy.

On a Saturday night, adds of this GREAT NEW RELEASE OF FINAL FANTASY FFXIV 2.0 is shown on every commercial break of X-factor, it is staring at your face on every bus stop you go and when you go to a gameshop to try out some new game the banners are inviting you to join the journey through Eorzea..
I wonder... if the person would actually go and buy the game and give it a go or go online and start reading how it failed 2 years ago on it's 1st launch.
I am sure some people would read... but I also think that great advertisement campaign can make anyone forget about the lame launch... or actually, they could even use it as a selling point.

FFXIV will only fail if Square Enix fails to market it properly when 2.0 comes out, what you think RIGHT NOW, doesn't really matter.

Edited, Nov 3rd 2011 6:19am by LeilaniWildfire
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#114 Nov 03 2011 at 5:59 AM Rating: Excellent
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Quote:
FFXIV will only fail if Square Enix fails to market it properly when 2.0 comes out, what you think RIGHT NOW, doesn't really matter.


Wishful thinking.
You guys need to draw the line somewhere. What we think right now is essential to the success of the game. They are going to start charging us really soon so "right now" seems pretty important to SE.

Quote:
I wouldn't judge success by subscribers. To me WoW was a failure since it failed to interest me. In that regard, yes FFXIV is already mroe successful then WoW...to ME. Of course this is all in relation to myself and not to society as a whole. Please don't mistake my words. :)


Your definition of success is skewed man. To you, FFXIV is more interesting and fun but successful? Come on now...

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#115 Nov 03 2011 at 6:54 AM Rating: Decent
lambon wrote:
Quote:
FFXIV will only fail if Square Enix fails to market it properly when 2.0 comes out, what you think RIGHT NOW, doesn't really matter.


Wishful thinking.
You guys need to draw the line somewhere. What we think right now is essential to the success of the game. They are going to start charging us really soon so "right now" seems pretty important to SE.



I doubt it...
If SE thought that losing members now for the sake of better future would somehow hinder the success, they would have planned this totally differently.

I think the upcoming charges have a lot more meaning than just paying for the work put to FFXIV. SE is a huge company and revenue from different accounts can be distributed to different areas. I don't think SE would suffer much if they decided to keep FFXIV free for the time being.

The bottom line is this, SE doesnt make any money on FFXIV at the moment, they REALLY don't care how many people at the moment stay and pay and how many will quit and not pay. It makes really no difference to SE as a company AT THE MOMENT.

I am sure the forecasts for FFXIV (in the monthly meetings of the SE finance team) don't expect to bring any revenue until 2013... Anything they get before that (i.e. the people who choose to pay from Dec onwards) is just a plus. But in the back of the mind the people in charge of the finances think and hope that once 2.0 comes out, they will be able to lure all the old people back.
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#116 Nov 03 2011 at 7:17 AM Rating: Default
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I just pray that in the spirit of trying to ressurect the game in a more appealing way, they don't casualize the game to the point where effort and invested time becomes moot.
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#117 Nov 03 2011 at 9:28 AM Rating: Default
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After the announcements last night I think the focus of the dev team is maintaining and even slightly growing the community by rewarding loyalty. While the long term goals may only have the potential to address the "failings" within the current game, I think the path they are on, at this point, is a good one - one that will lead to a successful MMO that will likely see numbers higher than XI's top subscription rate (1.2mil wasn't it?).

My hope received a major boost with this most recent video broadcast.
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#118je355804, Posted: Nov 03 2011 at 10:16 AM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post) It's called sarcasm. I know this game obviously has 1/100 the members that WoW has... but I'm arguing with people who wish death upon this game at all cost. A bit of levity was in order.
#119je355804, Posted: Nov 03 2011 at 10:19 AM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post) It's as though they saw I needed some support yesterday.
#120 Nov 03 2011 at 2:06 PM Rating: Decent
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LeilaniWildfire wrote:
I am sure the forecasts for FFXIV (in the monthly meetings of the SE finance team) don't expect to bring any revenue until 2013... Anything they get before that (i.e. the people who choose to pay from Dec onwards) is just a plus.


It took XI several years before the started making money on it. Even if XIV does become successful, I don't see it pulling out of the red until at least 2016 if at all.
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Rinsui wrote:
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HaibaneRenmei wrote:
30 bucks is almost free

cocodojo wrote:
Its personal preference and all, but yes we need to educate WoW players that this is OUR game, these are Characters and not Toons. Time to beat that into them one at a time.
#121 Nov 03 2011 at 2:22 PM Rating: Good
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FilthMcNasty wrote:
It took XI several years before the started making money on it.
If by several years you mean the operation become almost purely profitable starting their second year, then correct.
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#122 Nov 03 2011 at 2:27 PM Rating: Default
lolgaxe wrote:
FilthMcNasty wrote:
It took XI several years before the started making money on it.
If by several years you mean the operation become almost purely profitable starting their second year, then correct.


Random statistics strike again. People seem to forget that when XI came out MMOs were just beginning to go mainstream. ROI may have taken a few years, but profitability started much earlier, as lolgaxe pointed out.
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#123 Nov 03 2011 at 2:54 PM Rating: Decent
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Professor Dyrwydi wrote:
lolgaxe wrote:
FilthMcNasty wrote:
It took XI several years before the started making money on it.
If by several years you mean the operation become almost purely profitable starting their second year, then correct.


Random statistics strike again. People seem to forget that when XI came out MMOs were just beginning to go mainstream. ROI may have taken a few years, but profitability started much earlier, as lolgaxe pointed out.


Not at all sure what ROI or mainstream appeal have to do with it. Anyhow, it isn't a random statistic. It came from an interview with Wada.

We may be talking about two different things here so I'll clarify. Wada gave an interview in 2004 which he stated that they had reached their goal for XI to be profitable. There is a difference between attaining your goal to make profit and actually breaking out of the red. Regardless, it took them several years to make back their investment on development costs(pre and post release), production/distribution, server upkeep and so on.

XIV on the other hand had a much larger budget, is going to be increasing that budget substantially(bigger team, new graphics engine, new server hardware, ect.) and has not had the benefit of sub fees to cushion the costs up until now. It will take a while before XIV will even be close to estimating when they will make a profit.



Edited, Nov 3rd 2011 4:55pm by FilthMcNasty
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Rinsui wrote:
Only hips + boobs all day and hips + boobs all over my icecream

HaibaneRenmei wrote:
30 bucks is almost free

cocodojo wrote:
Its personal preference and all, but yes we need to educate WoW players that this is OUR game, these are Characters and not Toons. Time to beat that into them one at a time.
#124 Nov 03 2011 at 3:04 PM Rating: Default
FilthMcNasty wrote:
Not at all sure what ROI or mainstream appeal have to do with it. Anyhow, it isn't a random statistic. It came from an interview with Wada.

We may be talking about two different things here so I'll clarify. Wada gave an interview in 2004 which he stated that they had reached their goal for XI to be profitable. There is a difference between attaining your goal to make profit and actually breaking out of the red. Regardless, it took them several years to make back their investment on development costs(pre and post release), production/distribution, server upkeep and so on.

XIV on the other hand had a much larger budget, is going to be increasing that budget substantially(bigger team, new graphics engine, new server hardware, ect.) and has not had the benefit of sub fees to cushion the costs up until now. It will take a while before XIV will even be close to estimating when they will make a profit.



Edited, Nov 3rd 2011 4:55pm by FilthMcNasty


"...it took them several years to make back their investment on development costs(pre and post release), production/distribution, server upkeep and so on." This is "ROI" or Return on Investment. I think we are discussing the same thing, but like the epic fail/success discussion, looking at it from different angles. Reaching long term goals in 2004 was landmark, for any business laying out a major investment. Yes I agree that attaining the financial goals for XIV will take significantly longer, and your estimation of 2016 is likely close to the mark, thought it may take longer. Regarding turning a profit over expenses (does not include any investment expenses) I think they will begin to see this by second quarter 2013 - IF (key word) then can actually deliver the quality of product they are now working towards with the 2.0 release.
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#125 Nov 03 2011 at 3:09 PM Rating: Excellent
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FilthMcNasty wrote:
Regardless, it took them several years to make back their investment on development costs(pre and post release), production/distribution, server upkeep and so on.
...

Yoichi Wada announced in December 2003 that Final Fantasy XI broke even for development costs and started making a profit.
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#126 Nov 03 2011 at 6:37 PM Rating: Excellent
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When did FFXI hit the profitable threshold?
http://www.rpgamer.com/news/Q4-2002/121202d.html
Mid Dec 2002. That's 7 months in. The parallel point for FFXIV was early May 2011.
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#127 Nov 03 2011 at 7:42 PM Rating: Excellent
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And therein lies the dilemma for every MMO developer. Ignore your players and charge ahead with whatever ideas sprout from the creative wizards on the development team, in which case you end up with FFXIV, or listen to your players and allow their feedback to be part of the decision making process and have everyone who is dissatisfied with the game accuse you of ruining your game to suit the vocal minority.

If Tanaka's arrogance and SE's hubris had been kept in check by the voice of their fans, they wouldn't be in this mess with FFXIV in the first place. They had plenty of feedback throughout beta testing...both direct and floating around the internet via leaks...telling them that the game was garbage and not ready for launch, but they charged ahead anyways.

A common misconception from players is that developers who listen to their players routinely implement features and systems against their better judgement because the players asked for it. This is simply untrue. It's not like developers sit at a console and make additions/adjustments in the blink of an eye because Joe Random on some forum demanded it and 6 trolling numpties agreed. Every developer considers the feedback put forward by their players in the context of their playerbase at large. No change is made immediately. Every change carries a hidden cost to design, implement, and test. No business invests costly man-hours into frivolous revisions and adjustments because a handful of people asked for it.

Believe it or not, developers tend to know what is happening with their games these days. I know, I know...we could all point to FFXI as anecdotal evidence that SE had no idea what was happening in their game, but that was years ago and the standards have been raised across the board. You may not have trusted Tanaka to have an objective eye on what was happening in FFXI, but Yoshi-P is not Tanaka.

Like it or not, if a developer wants their game to succeed in today's competitive market, they have no choice but to listen to their players and stand ready to make adjustments if it's clear that something hasn't been well received. At the end of the day, it's a pretty simple process. Developers release new/updated content, and it doesn't matter why they did it (their own ideas, player suggestions, etc.). You like it or you don't. If you don't like it, you voice your feedback in the appropriate fashion and then you continue to play the game or you don't. If enough people decide to discontinue playing, the developers either adapt appropriately or their product fails.
#128 Nov 03 2011 at 9:01 PM Rating: Excellent
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je355804 wrote:

It's called sarcasm. I know this game obviously has 1/100 the members that WoW has... but I'm arguing with people who wish death upon this game at all cost. A bit of levity was in order.


No, you are just arguing facts. That's all you seem to do.

I do not wish death on this game. I actively play the game, enjoy doing so and hope to for a long time yet. The truth is though it doesn't matter how much those of us playing love the game, if more people don't join, the game will not succeed. You and State may play the game 125 hours a week, paint your cars with the FFXIV logo and have a picture of Yoshi hanging over your beds, but you are still worth no more to SE than 2 subscribers. Right now, the game doesn't have enough.

However, I am cautiously optimistic that the current team can pull the game out of the gutter and bring people back, even a couple years after the failed launch. That day still has yet to come and is still a very tall order for any game to achieve.
#129 Nov 03 2011 at 11:01 PM Rating: Decent
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lolgaxe wrote:
FilthMcNasty wrote:
Regardless, it took them several years to make back their investment on development costs(pre and post release), production/distribution, server upkeep and so on.
...

Yoichi Wada announced in December 2003 that Final Fantasy XI broke even for development costs and started making a profit.


From the article that wikipedia is supposed to link to...
Source

IGN article wrote:
Since the game's release, Square has stated that 200,000 users would be the minimum base required to turn the game profitable in the long term.

Bolded for emphasis. People see the 'breaks even' in the title and assume that this was the day they actually had money in hand. All that meant was they had reached the number of subs(assuming they kept or exceeded that number) between now and [insert long term goal date here].

There was another article I was speaking about that was actually an interview with Wada that I'll look for. In it he basically explained what their idea of 'long term' was.

Quote:
This is "ROI" or Return on Investment.


You know, I completely thought you were talking about some crazy MMO I'd never heard of... good for a laugh I guess.






____________________________
Rinsui wrote:
Only hips + boobs all day and hips + boobs all over my icecream

HaibaneRenmei wrote:
30 bucks is almost free

cocodojo wrote:
Its personal preference and all, but yes we need to educate WoW players that this is OUR game, these are Characters and not Toons. Time to beat that into them one at a time.
#130 Nov 04 2011 at 12:09 AM Rating: Decent
Thief's Knife
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A new Xbox 360 is coming in 2013 and likely a new Playstation as well. By the time it is released FFXIV on PS3 will be a generation behind. It will be as if FFXI had been released on the PS2 in 2006.
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I thought of it first:

http://ffxi.allakhazam.com/forum.html?forum=10&mid=130073657654872218#20
#131IlethiusTarraban, Posted: Nov 04 2011 at 3:46 AM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post) The only thing this game failed at launch was expectations, the servers are still running and people are still playing. No game truly fails until the servers are shutdown, so this game is still alive and kicking, it did take substantial beating in the first couple of months but SE had a plan and unlike many Western MMO companies they stuck too it unstead of shutting the server down all the while taking the hit financially.
#132 Nov 04 2011 at 6:23 AM Rating: Excellent
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IlethiusTarraban wrote:
Also the doomsayers who spout the FFXIV wont make a profit the latest figures I could find (Nov 4th 2010) it shipped 630,000 copies thats around 20 million Pounds (32million USD, 23million EUR, 2.4billion JPY), based on a average cost of £30 per game, I think you can expect those kind of sales figures again if not more when PS3 release hits.


First of all, that isn't as great as you make it sound. Given that development pre-release cost nearly twice that, toss in the fact that it also costs money to produce and ship those 630k boxes, run and maintain servers, develop the content that has come out since release... so on. That isn't doomsaying, that's common sense.

The only point in bringing up box sales should be to illustrate how many people are NOT playing XIV despite it being free to play. There is no way that console sales will match or even come close to PC sales. Tons of people voiced that they probably wouldn't play at all when it was only a 6 month gap. Now you expect the population to increase exponentially by players coming in over two years later? /boggle


____________________________
Rinsui wrote:
Only hips + boobs all day and hips + boobs all over my icecream

HaibaneRenmei wrote:
30 bucks is almost free

cocodojo wrote:
Its personal preference and all, but yes we need to educate WoW players that this is OUR game, these are Characters and not Toons. Time to beat that into them one at a time.
#133 Nov 04 2011 at 8:32 AM Rating: Excellent
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IlethiusTarraban wrote:
The only thing this game failed at launch was expectations, the servers are still running and people are still playing. No game truly fails until the servers are shutdown, so this game is still alive and kicking, it did take substantial beating in the first couple of months but SE had a plan and unlike many Western MMO companies they stuck too it unstead of shutting the server down all the while taking the hit financially.

Also the doomsayers who spout the FFXIV wont make a profit the latest figures I could find (Nov 4th 2010) it shipped 630,000 copies thats around 20 million Pounds (32million USD, 23million EUR, 2.4billion JPY), based on a average cost of £30 per game, I think you can expect those kind of sales figures again if not more when PS3 release hits.


630k copies went to stores. We don't know what they sold for, we don't know if SE had any buyback agreements, and we don't know what the effect of copies that sit unsold on store shelves will have on future game orders made by those stores. We have very little idea how much net gain they made from FFXIV. We know they wern't happy with it so I doubt it was over the development cost of $25 mil though.
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#134IlethiusTarraban, Posted: Nov 04 2011 at 8:37 AM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post) I mearly brought up box sales to illustrate that the product has clawed back some money also the PS3 WILL attract new players wether it hits the same level as the pc launch remains to be seen but to dismiss this because tons of people you know / spoken to, have said they wont play it is absurd, unless you know all of the potential PS3 players out there your point is mute.
#135 Nov 04 2011 at 9:07 AM Rating: Default
KujaKoF wrote:
IlethiusTarraban wrote:
The only thing this game failed at launch was expectations, the servers are still running and people are still playing. No game truly fails until the servers are shutdown, so this game is still alive and kicking, it did take substantial beating in the first couple of months but SE had a plan and unlike many Western MMO companies they stuck too it unstead of shutting the server down all the while taking the hit financially.

Also the doomsayers who spout the FFXIV wont make a profit the latest figures I could find (Nov 4th 2010) it shipped 630,000 copies thats around 20 million Pounds (32million USD, 23million EUR, 2.4billion JPY), based on a average cost of £30 per game, I think you can expect those kind of sales figures again if not more when PS3 release hits.


630k copies went to stores. We don't know what they sold for, we don't know if SE had any buyback agreements, and we don't know what the effect of copies that sit unsold on store shelves will have on future game orders made by those stores. We have very little idea how much net gain they made from FFXIV. We know they wern't happy with it so I doubt it was over the development cost of $25 mil though.


I can appreciate your determination to play "devils advocate" on this topic, but if your only point is to detract from a game you apparently detest, why continue trolling the threads?

The FFXIV venture is hemorrhaging money at this point, there is no doubt about that. No regular income at this point, a full development team to pay, servers to upkeep, etc. There is no argument that would support SE not taking a loss on this project currently. Considering the new information released yesterday, plus the email earlier answering ZAMs questions about content I think it is safe to presume that at the very least FFXIV can expect to stop taking on water sometime within a year of releasing v2. This would be not only because of the influx of PS3 players (which will be slow at first, reviews will have to be raving for a major influx to occur) but also because of the return of former subscribers who want to see what all of the new features are. Look at any other MMO on the market, release a new expansion pack and the boost received to their numbers are not from those who want to start playing, but rather from those who have already played. 630 million units sold is not the retailer purchases number, that is the end-user numbers, and an influx of half that many people would go a long way towards increasing the chances of survival for the game.
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#136 Nov 04 2011 at 9:30 AM Rating: Excellent
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Professor Dyrwydi wrote:
Considering the new information released yesterday, plus the email earlier answering ZAMs questions about content I think it is safe to presume that at the very least FFXIV can expect to stop taking on water sometime within a year of releasing v2.


No, that is not a safe assumption at all. It may happen, it may not. Remember the hype before FFXIV was released? The game sounded terrific on paper. Games always sound great before they are released, developers and PR people make sure it does. Nothing is proven until the game is officially released.

I think most of what I'm hearing about 2.0 sounds exciting and I look forward to it. However, I, nor anyone else, have actually played it. Besides, even if it is actually really good, there are so many other things going against SE that it will still be hard to overcome.

- The game will be a couple years old before 2.0 is released. Most gamers are interested in the newest and greatest. It is a lot to expect them to see this as a "new" game and jump on board.

- The PS3 is getting late in its life cycle, even at the supposed 10-year life span. The excitement of playing an MMO on the new generation console, just isn't there.

- MMOs in general have never really done well on consoles. It is a lot to expect the console version of the game to carry all the weight that the PC hasn't been able to.

- There is no guarantee major game reviewers will grant SE's wish to have the game re-reviewed a couple years after the horrible ratings across the board.

- Even if reviewers review 2.0 as a new game, you can guarantee they will be as critical as they can be. Even if the game is a lot better, I don't expect to see many 5-star reviews for the game, and anything less will likely not be able to pull people back.

- MMOs are already a risky endeavor. This one however is pretty much the equivalent of making 2 MMOs and getting the profits of one. Those "great" box sales will not be gone for 2.0, as everyone who already purchased the original won't be purchasing the second.

- No MMO has ever overcome a failed launch to go on to be successful. SE is hoping that will be the case, years after the initial release. That is a lot to expect out of gamers.

All that being said, I still think the game has a shot. The current team seems to be doing things the right way and 2.0 looks promising. But, again, it just looks promising. Only time will tell if it will deliver on that promise.
#137 Nov 04 2011 at 9:50 AM Rating: Default
Vawn43 wrote:
Professor Dyrwydi wrote:
snipped for space

snipped for space


Regarding the PS3 issues, you're right, MMOs on console, especially ones that are nearing the end of their life-cycle may not seem like the best platform for distribution, but I have no doubt that SE will make the game compatible to the next generation to ensure their investment is not entirely lost - unlike XI which did not make the jump from PS2 to PS3 due to Sony's ineptitude (a mistake I doubt Sony makes again).

Just to be clear, you don't think that it is likely that FFXIV will obtain enough subscribers to pay for servers, support, maintenance, etc - the regular month-to-month expenses of operating the game. I am not talking about SE recouping their losses from development and re-development. As established earlier in this thread, SE has made many mistakes with the franchise in the past, yet each new title gets repeat customers buying it. We are talking about reinventing a single title, from the ground up. While I do see SE struggling to get a full return on their investment, I do not see them having any issues garnering enough subscriptions to pay for the games operation.

Edited, Nov 4th 2011 11:50am by Dyrwydi
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#138 Nov 04 2011 at 9:54 AM Rating: Excellent
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4,146 posts
IlethiusTarraban wrote:
I mearly brought up box sales to illustrate that the product has clawed back some money also the PS3 WILL attract new players wether it hits the same level as the pc launch remains to be seen but to dismiss this because tons of people you know / spoken to, have said they wont play it is absurd, unless you know all of the potential PS3 players out there your point is mute.


Consider the fact that NA and EU players preferred the PC version to the console at a ratio of 2:1. 2 PC players for every 1 PS2/360 player.

Also consider that many prospective players who would have been joining for PS3 didn't want to be left behind and decided to build, upgrade or buy a computer to play the PC version earlier. Need proof? Look at the computer building thread in this forum or any of the others. Far and away the largest threads.

Putting these two facts together it's pretty obvious that the PC version will outpace the PS3 by an even larger ratio. I know it's speculative at this point, but that is pretty solid supportive evidence that more people will be playing(read: already purchased) on PC.

Old players coming back will be good for XIV, but don't expect PS3 numbers to come close to matching the numbers PC put up. Remember, many of those sales were presales and or purchases made before XIV was pronounced a failure by the players and reviewers.

SE thinks that the PS3 version will be the 'make or break' point, but I beg to differ. The most important step along the way in their roadmap will be the free trial. The next most important thing following that would be an expansion which hasn't been announced yet.




Edited, Nov 4th 2011 11:55am by FilthMcNasty
____________________________
Rinsui wrote:
Only hips + boobs all day and hips + boobs all over my icecream

HaibaneRenmei wrote:
30 bucks is almost free

cocodojo wrote:
Its personal preference and all, but yes we need to educate WoW players that this is OUR game, these are Characters and not Toons. Time to beat that into them one at a time.
#139 Nov 04 2011 at 9:55 AM Rating: Excellent
Quote:
Also the doomsayers who spout the FFXIV wont make a profit the latest figures I could find (Nov 4th 2010) it shipped 630,000 copies thats around 20 million Pounds (32million USD, 23million EUR, 2.4billion JPY), based on a average cost of £30 per game, I think you can expect those kind of sales figures again if not more when PS3 release hits.


Like it was mentioned, those were shipped copies. At it's peak, XIV had about 50,000 players, maybe a touch more, so that's a far cry from the estimated 30,000,000 they made. More along the lines of 2.5-3million, and development costs initially were estimated at 30,000,000, that was prior to release. So you can only imagine with the staff on board and servers running the hole their in.

If they can ever get the player base up to 100,000 players (which isn't a lot), they could turn about 1.4mil/month on monthly fees and have this game paid off in a couple years. Now that of course is from when they start charging which may not be until January of 2012. So 3-4 years to start making profit, that's a long time to bleed money. Now if they don't ever get up to 100,000 players? It could take twice as long to make that money back.

http://news.mmosite.com/content/2010-10-27/ffxivs_population_is_decreasing_severely.shtml#ue_pic That was near release last year, and it didn't even hit 50,000 people. SE has got a ton of marketing to do if they ever want to see a profit on this game.
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#140 Nov 04 2011 at 9:57 AM Rating: Good
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4,146 posts
Montsegurnephcreep wrote:
Like it was mentioned, those were shipped copies.

630k is what is listed as 'units sold' according to SE's last fiscal report. I'm not sure where the miscommunication is coming from, but it was not just units shipped.
____________________________
Rinsui wrote:
Only hips + boobs all day and hips + boobs all over my icecream

HaibaneRenmei wrote:
30 bucks is almost free

cocodojo wrote:
Its personal preference and all, but yes we need to educate WoW players that this is OUR game, these are Characters and not Toons. Time to beat that into them one at a time.
#141 Nov 04 2011 at 10:03 AM Rating: Excellent
Sage
**
575 posts
Professor Dyrwydi wrote:

Just to be clear, you don't think that it is likely that FFXIV will obtain enough subscribers to pay for servers, support, maintenance, etc - the regular month-to-month expenses of operating the game.


I don't think it is guaranteed. However, I will agree at this point is pretty unlikely that the game completely shuts down within the next 8 years.

That shouldn't be the only thing we, as FFXIV players, worry about though. Lets say the game had 10,000,000 subscribers. How much money do you think SE would continue to throw at the game, making huge expansions and constant new content to keep as many of those players playing throughout the years? Probably quite a bit. Now, what if 50,000 people played? The incentive to spend a lot of money to keep those people happy is just not there.

If just enough people play for the game to squeak by, it isn't realistic to think of the game getting exciting new full-on expansions and new content throughout the years.

Edited, Nov 4th 2011 12:05pm by Vawn43
#142 Nov 04 2011 at 10:08 AM Rating: Default
Montsegurnephcreep wrote:
Quote:
Also the doomsayers who spout the FFXIV wont make a profit the latest figures I could find (Nov 4th 2010) it shipped 630,000 copies thats around 20 million Pounds (32million USD, 23million EUR, 2.4billion JPY), based on a average cost of £30 per game, I think you can expect those kind of sales figures again if not more when PS3 release hits.


Like it was mentioned, those were shipped copies. At it's peak, XIV had about 50,000 players, maybe a touch more, so that's a far cry from the estimated 30,000,000 they made. More along the lines of 2.5-3million, and development costs initially were estimated at 30,000,000, that was prior to release. So you can only imagine with the staff on board and servers running the hole their in.

If they can ever get the player base up to 100,000 players (which isn't a lot), they could turn about 1.4mil/month on monthly fees and have this game paid off in a couple years. Now that of course is from when they start charging which may not be until January of 2012. So 3-4 years to start making profit, that's a long time to bleed money. Now if they don't ever get up to 100,000 players? It could take twice as long to make that money back.

http://news.mmosite.com/content/2010-10-27/ffxivs_population_is_decreasing_severely.shtml#ue_pic That was near release last year, and it didn't even hit 50,000 people. SE has got a ton of marketing to do if they ever want to see a profit on this game.


Are we talking about ROI (return on investment) profit, or month-to-month profit over losses? This is a key difference. At $1.4mil/mo they would be barely paying for support employees, equipment, a mid-sized development team, plus marketing - I'm talking expenses, not investment. Hard part of business is then choosing where the dollars go when you pass the "break-even" point, do you begin paying off the investors, or put more into development or marketing to draw more subscribers / subscriber loyalty? I am thinking that they should be aiming for about 200,000 subscribers to being repaying the investment. Again, not a very big number in regards to an MMO... and pretty small in comparison to the number of people buying non-online FF titles.
____________________________
Success is a journey, not a destination - Failure is a destination achieved by ending the journey.
#143 Nov 04 2011 at 10:09 AM Rating: Excellent
Quote:
630k is what is listed as 'units sold' according to SE's last fiscal report. I'm not sure where the miscommunication is coming from, but it was not just units shipped.


http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/31364/Square_Enix_Ships_630000_FFXIV_Copies_Working_On_Regaining_Trust.php Just trying to find the fiscal report on google, I could very well be wrong. But if 630,000 units had actually sold, would there not have been far more players? Or were they actually bought by the stores in hopes of selling em?

I am reading now that some sites say shipped, others say sold. 630,000 would make a lot more sense worldwide, but the gaming population at launch just doesn't add up.

Edited, Nov 4th 2011 12:12pm by Montsegurnephcreep
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#144 Nov 04 2011 at 10:25 AM Rating: Excellent
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Well here are the closest we have to current numbers. Notice that there is no listing for sales in Japan. 630k is from months ago and I originally used it as a baseline to show that 1/10 people who purchased still actively login. In reality it is slightly worse than that but what the ****, lets round the playerbase up to ~10%.

I don't think people understand just how poorly this game is doing. Either don't understand it or don't want to believe it. I hate that FF is in the toilet too, but the way people defend it you'd think they were the ones responsible...

Edited, Nov 4th 2011 12:29pm by FilthMcNasty
____________________________
Rinsui wrote:
Only hips + boobs all day and hips + boobs all over my icecream

HaibaneRenmei wrote:
30 bucks is almost free

cocodojo wrote:
Its personal preference and all, but yes we need to educate WoW players that this is OUR game, these are Characters and not Toons. Time to beat that into them one at a time.
#145 Nov 04 2011 at 11:09 AM Rating: Excellent
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1,636 posts
Professor Dyrwydi wrote:
KujaKoF wrote:
IlethiusTarraban wrote:
The only thing this game failed at launch was expectations, the servers are still running and people are still playing. No game truly fails until the servers are shutdown, so this game is still alive and kicking, it did take substantial beating in the first couple of months but SE had a plan and unlike many Western MMO companies they stuck too it unstead of shutting the server down all the while taking the hit financially.

Also the doomsayers who spout the FFXIV wont make a profit the latest figures I could find (Nov 4th 2010) it shipped 630,000 copies thats around 20 million Pounds (32million USD, 23million EUR, 2.4billion JPY), based on a average cost of £30 per game, I think you can expect those kind of sales figures again if not more when PS3 release hits.


630k copies went to stores. We don't know what they sold for, we don't know if SE had any buyback agreements, and we don't know what the effect of copies that sit unsold on store shelves will have on future game orders made by those stores. We have very little idea how much net gain they made from FFXIV. We know they wern't happy with it so I doubt it was over the development cost of $25 mil though.


I can appreciate your determination to play "devils advocate" on this topic, but if your only point is to detract from a game you apparently detest, why continue trolling the threads?

The FFXIV venture is hemorrhaging money at this point, there is no doubt about that. No regular income at this point, a full development team to pay, servers to upkeep, etc. There is no argument that would support SE not taking a loss on this project currently. Considering the new information released yesterday, plus the email earlier answering ZAMs questions about content I think it is safe to presume that at the very least FFXIV can expect to stop taking on water sometime within a year of releasing v2. This would be not only because of the influx of PS3 players (which will be slow at first, reviews will have to be raving for a major influx to occur) but also because of the return of former subscribers who want to see what all of the new features are. Look at any other MMO on the market, release a new expansion pack and the boost received to their numbers are not from those who want to start playing, but rather from those who have already played. 630 million units sold is not the retailer purchases number, that is the end-user numbers, and an influx of half that many people would go a long way towards increasing the chances of survival for the game.


I responded to a post to a guy who assumed a bunch of figures, and came to a conclusion that was already proven wrong by reported financial data. There are 2 possible ways to actually determine a ballpark number of ways a game has sold, and at least one way to infer it. If every distributor send an accurate telling of copies sold to SE, which SE tallies and posts publicly, that did not happen. If 630k accounts were created, we'd know that 630k copies were sold to users (even that would need to take into account buddy passes from that number). Finally, we could infer that if every store that had ordered copies, reordered new ones we could assume that they had sold their previous stock and requested more. That hasn't happened either. the number was 630K units shipped. Not sold to end users.
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#146 Nov 04 2011 at 11:16 AM Rating: Excellent
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1,636 posts
FilthMcNasty wrote:
Montsegurnephcreep wrote:
Like it was mentioned, those were shipped copies.

630k is what is listed as 'units sold' according to SE's last fiscal report. I'm not sure where the miscommunication is coming from, but it was not just units shipped.


To try and clear this up cleanly. SE is in the business of selling copies of games to retailers and other distributors. there is no evidence that 630K end users bought copies from those retailers. We also have no idea what they charged for the copies of their games (some people claim games go for about 95% of MSRP), if they had buyback agreements with anyone, or return policies with those retailers etc. Sold tends to imply that the product ended up in a customers hands, which is whats misleading lots of people.
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#147 Nov 04 2011 at 11:47 AM Rating: Default
KujaKoF wrote:
Professor Dyrwydi wrote:
KujaKoF wrote:
IlethiusTarraban wrote:
snipped for space

snipped for space

snipped for space


I responded to a post to a guy who assumed a bunch of figures, and came to a conclusion that was already proven wrong by reported financial data. There are 2 possible ways to actually determine a ballpark number of ways a game has sold, and at least one way to infer it. If every distributor send an accurate telling of copies sold to SE, which SE tallies and posts publicly, that did not happen. If 630k accounts were created, we'd know that 630k copies were sold to users (even that would need to take into account buddy passes from that number). Finally, we could infer that if every store that had ordered copies, reordered new ones we could assume that they had sold their previous stock and requested more. That hasn't happened either. the number was 630K units shipped. Not sold to end users.


Fair enough, I yield on this point. Seeing that subscriptions never reached close to 603k we can, as you pointed out, conclude that these figures are indeed retailer purchases, not end-user. I do not see any record of sell-backs or returned box copies to SE, but do not deny the possibility of such a transaction.

Now, I see this as only an indication of what game sales could look like following 2.0's release. There was a lot of negative feedback about the title during the Alpha, Closed Beta and Semi-Open Beta periods which likely caused the poor sales. Considering the changes coming and the dedication of the active players it is likely that if SE can satisfy us then the positive feedback would create the opposite trend leading to far greater sales / subscriptions. Thereby we can imply that the possibility of a successful product is solely dependent on SE's ability to garner positive feedback from the player community, in other words, us.
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Success is a journey, not a destination - Failure is a destination achieved by ending the journey.
#148 Nov 04 2011 at 6:02 PM Rating: Decent
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4,146 posts
KujaKoF wrote:
I responded to a post to a guy who assumed a bunch of figures, and came to a conclusion that was already proven wrong by reported financial data.

So when SE refers to 'sales' in their reports, they really mean units shipped?

Clicky.

So this chart that is labeled 'sales' is actually 'units shipped' then? They just ship out on a weekly basis even though they aren't selling them? Makes sense >.>
____________________________
Rinsui wrote:
Only hips + boobs all day and hips + boobs all over my icecream

HaibaneRenmei wrote:
30 bucks is almost free

cocodojo wrote:
Its personal preference and all, but yes we need to educate WoW players that this is OUR game, these are Characters and not Toons. Time to beat that into them one at a time.
#149 Nov 04 2011 at 6:45 PM Rating: Excellent
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1,636 posts
First off, I'm mostly pointing out the difference between 630K units shipped to stores (which presumably were paid for, so sold is an appropriate term), and the difference between units sold by stores to customers. 630k copies reported on financials means jack all to the number of potential players there are.

I don't understand what the point of that link is? First off it has zero citations or sources for its data. Second, it shows that less than 630K units have been sold at this point?
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#150 Nov 04 2011 at 6:53 PM Rating: Excellent
*****
11,576 posts
FilthMcNasty wrote:
KujaKoF wrote:
I responded to a post to a guy who assumed a bunch of figures, and came to a conclusion that was already proven wrong by reported financial data.

So when SE refers to 'sales' in their reports, they really mean units shipped?

Clicky.

So this chart that is labeled 'sales' is actually 'units shipped' then? They just ship out on a weekly basis even though they aren't selling them? Makes sense >.>


The number they gave at launch...~630k...was units shipped.

Just think it through a bit. If 630k copies found their way into the hands of would-be players and the game peaked at 18 servers, do you really think SE was jamming over 30000 players on each server? A reasonable estimate would be 10000 players/server. So if you factor in all the people who bought the game and couldn't play it because they found out the hard way that their PC wasn't up to par, and all the people who bought it and shelved it when they couldn't get their shenanigans squared away with Click 'n Buy, we'd be looking at a more conservative estimate of 200k units finding their way to the end consumer. And I think that's being generous.
#151 Nov 04 2011 at 6:58 PM Rating: Good
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4,146 posts
KujaKoF wrote:
First off, I'm mostly pointing out the difference between 630K units shipped to stores (which presumably were paid for, so sold is an appropriate term), and the difference between units sold by stores to customers. 630k copies reported on financials means jack all to the number of potential players there are.

I don't understand what the point of that link is? First off it has zero citations or sources for its data. Second, it shows that less than 630K units have been sold at this point?


I understand what you're trying to point out. We have this link and the fiscal report that supports that data, but it's just a general report. It doesn't specify that x amount of people purchased, we had y amount of returns and z copies were damaged in transit.

Neither one of us has a source really. VGZ never links its sources because it's actually an estimated total. One that matched up pretty closely with that of SE in their report so I figured it was close enough. Again, it is only being used to show how few of the people who purchased the game still play. Even if the actual total is 300k, 60k(generous) active players is dismal.

Shame on you for not reading the post or the link you clicked. It's less than 630k because it doesn't include Japan.
____________________________
Rinsui wrote:
Only hips + boobs all day and hips + boobs all over my icecream

HaibaneRenmei wrote:
30 bucks is almost free

cocodojo wrote:
Its personal preference and all, but yes we need to educate WoW players that this is OUR game, these are Characters and not Toons. Time to beat that into them one at a time.
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