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Post population #'s now since p2p is upFollow

#1 Jan 06 2012 at 11:05 AM Rating: Decent
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To anyone who is still playing, would you kindly post up populations #'s of your servers please since p2p has gone live. I am curious about what the #'s are showing now since many have either quit and are waiting for a proper payment system so they can p2p. Thanks in advance.
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#2 Jan 06 2012 at 11:11 AM Rating: Default
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LillithaFenimore wrote:
To anyone who is still playing, would you kindly post up populations #'s of your servers please since p2p has gone live. I am curious about what the #'s are showing now since many have either quit and are waiting for a proper payment system so they can p2p. Thanks in advance.


Can safely assume 50% of the population is gone of the picture.
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#3 Jan 06 2012 at 11:13 AM Rating: Good
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Wutai

@ 5:11pm GMT - 265, was expecting worse not anywhere near primetime yet i dont think.
@ 6:15pm GMT - 245
Will update with more wutai figures



Edited, Jan 6th 2012 1:19pm by Metin
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#4 Jan 06 2012 at 11:15 AM Rating: Decent
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Someone on the official forums were saying population had only dropped like 13%. So sounds like great news for SE so far.
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#5 Jan 06 2012 at 11:16 AM Rating: Good
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TwiddleDee wrote:
LillithaFenimore wrote:
To anyone who is still playing, would you kindly post up populations #'s of your servers please since p2p has gone live. I am curious about what the #'s are showing now since many have either quit and are waiting for a proper payment system so they can p2p. Thanks in advance.
Can safely assume 50% of the population is gone of the picture.

Heh, well I don't like to assume :) There are many who are still very big fans and want to continue playing, and even with the server mergers taking place and the 2.0 being released eventually, I'm a bit concerned with survivability of the game, even upon 2.0 release.

There are so many who quit for various reasons, and I'm just curious will the community who is still p2p, be enough to slowly get people to play again (word of mouth advertisement). Can those of us waiting on the sidelines really trust that those remaining aren't letting their inner fanboy/girl do the talking or are they being straight forward with facts and such. I'm just all around curious, and very worried.


Edited, Jan 6th 2012 12:16pm by LillithaFenimore

Edited, Jan 6th 2012 12:19pm by LillithaFenimore
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#6 Jan 06 2012 at 11:47 AM Rating: Excellent
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There's good reason to be worried. Even with only a 10% dip across all servers, that's 10% they couldn't afford to lose in the first place.
#7 Jan 06 2012 at 11:53 AM Rating: Decent
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Torrence wrote:
There's good reason to be worried. Even with only a 10% dip across all servers, that's 10% they couldn't afford to lose in the first place.


I keep thinking SE must have known that this was going to happen and that they know what they are doing. One can hope anyway. I'm a little curious how they see this playing out. The money they will get from billing is probably just a drop in the bucket compared to what they are spending so I doubt they are purely looking for cash.

I think we need the server mergers/transfers now more than ever.

The low numbers even before the billing hit worried me. I've decided to just play and if I'm not enjoying myself $8 worth a month I will go find something else to do and check back in 2.0.

#8 Jan 06 2012 at 12:03 PM Rating: Good
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I think the wisest thing SE could do with FFXIV is to add "Version 2.0" on the title on the physical box. If they only have FFXIV on it most of the old and bad reputation would still hang around. Version 2.0 in this case would be a new version of the game which it is in this case and would probably reawake people's interest in the product plus separating the new version from the old. Until that time I don't really expect to see any difference in the subscription numbers.
#9 Jan 06 2012 at 12:35 PM Rating: Excellent
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from 750ish on besaid on primetime to 400
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#10 Jan 06 2012 at 12:38 PM Rating: Decent
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Can safely say SE is expecting the worst, hoping for the best with p2p hitting the shore. I am quite sure they can see the numbers more clearly then we can guesstimate. As for V2, i really hope SE pulls all the stops for media coverage and advertisement. I would suspect they are planing to put as much of a distance between v1 and v2 as possible. So new box art, new trailers, new website, exe... are not out of the question, and it would be in there best interest to hit all the bases. They are literally building a new house, and the less they reuse the stronger the impact. Of the new product.
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#11 Jan 06 2012 at 2:10 PM Rating: Good
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#12 Jan 06 2012 at 2:42 PM Rating: Excellent
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Yelta wrote:


I keep thinking SE must have known that this was going to happen and that they know what they are doing.


I understand your optimism and applaud it... But at least for me - I kind of lost faith that SE 'knows what they are doing' about a year ago. If anything, this has me even more worried, because this means the people at the top, the ones who could give a **** about artistic license and creativity, are finally saying, "show us what kind of numbers this can bring in."

If this falls short of expectations which I have no doubt it will, we might be looking at a cash shop in XIV's future.
#13 Jan 06 2012 at 2:59 PM Rating: Default
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Torrence wrote:
we might be looking at a cash shop in XIV's future.


Don't wager more then light breath on that. I can see XIV going back to JP only, and closing servers, before it ever goes cash shop. SE as a game developer is not some back yard small time studio making mmo's for a quick buck. So what ever the final call, it would something that would be best reflect on the company's public image, above all else.
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#14 Jan 06 2012 at 3:13 PM Rating: Decent
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The population numbers after patch 1.21 , whenever that comes, will probably paint a clearer picture. I'm staying to see what that patch will bring as far as the job-system and content goes, and I know there are a lot of people out there who are staying to see if that patch makes the game worth paying for. People have been willing to tolerate mediocre/lackluster patches so far as the game has been free to play up until now. If patch 1.21 turns out to be a flop, you will definitely see a big drop in populations after that.
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#15 Jan 06 2012 at 3:14 PM Rating: Good
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TwiddleDee wrote:
Torrence wrote:
we might be looking at a cash shop in XIV's future.


Don't wager more then light breath on that. I can see XIV going back to JP only, and closing servers, before it ever goes cash shop. SE as a game developer is not some back yard small time studio making mmo's for a quick buck. So what ever the final call, it would something that would be best reflect on the company's public image, above all else.


Aren't the Japanese fond of seppuku? There is certainly a case to be made here for the game to fall on its tacked-on-moogle-sword.
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#16 Jan 06 2012 at 3:19 PM Rating: Good
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Torrence wrote:
There's good reason to be worried. Even with only a 10% dip across all servers, that's 10% they couldn't afford to lose in the first place.


With so many having quit about a year ago, I really don't think that a few more truly matter anymore; I think it would be better to say that SE couldn't have afforded to lose as many as they already have. At this point, SE is like a guy who has been shot in the head and dropped off a cliff... and contracted a slight dust allergy. That dust allergy is the ~10% who left.
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#17 Jan 06 2012 at 3:21 PM Rating: Default
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hexaemeron wrote:
Aren't the Japanese fond of seppuku? There is certainly a case to be made here for the game to fall on its tacked-on-moogle-sword.


FFXIV seppuku is a better bet, then thinking the game will bend over and put up a sign "have at it, just don't forget to tip..."
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#18 Jan 06 2012 at 3:24 PM Rating: Good
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TwiddleDee wrote:
hexaemeron wrote:
Aren't the Japanese fond of seppuku? There is certainly a case to be made here for the game to fall on its tacked-on-moogle-sword.


FFXIV seppuku is a better bet, then thinking the game will bend over and put up a sign "have at it, just don't forget to tip..."


Not everyone thinks that's a mortally terrifying punishment, fyi. *wink*
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#19 Jan 06 2012 at 4:07 PM Rating: Default
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hexaemeron wrote:
TwiddleDee wrote:
hexaemeron wrote:
Aren't the Japanese fond of seppuku? There is certainly a case to be made here for the game to fall on its tacked-on-moogle-sword.


FFXIV seppuku is a better bet, then thinking the game will bend over and put up a sign "have at it, just don't forget to tip..."


Not everyone thinks that's a mortally terrifying punishment, fyi. *wink*


Well if you just happen to be a 20 some year old female i would be more then glad to tickle your fancy.

Seriously though, if SE can pull off a ground braking game or two in the window before v2. It would help them in a big way. SE needs to show they still have what it takes.
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#20 Jan 06 2012 at 4:17 PM Rating: Good
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Torrence wrote:
Yelta wrote:


I keep thinking SE must have known that this was going to happen and that they know what they are doing.


I understand your optimism and applaud it... But at least for me - I kind of lost faith that SE 'knows what they are doing' about a year ago. If anything, this has me even more worried, because this means the people at the top, the ones who could give a @#%^ about artistic license and creativity, are finally saying, "show us what kind of numbers this can bring in."

If this falls short of expectations which I have no doubt it will, we might be looking at a cash shop in XIV's future.


I think ultimately they just made a decision to push forward with 2.0. Once that decision was made, they quit caring about the existing player base entirely. They decided to charge because $1.00 is better than $0.00 in cash flow.

They knew people would leave. They knew people would stay.
They knew people would defend it. They knew people would deride it.

From there perspective, the less people maxing out their characters during this period is probably better for version 2.0 when it hits. If people want to continue to max out their chars and collect gil, then they can pay for the luxury. Since the audience is somewhere south of 50K players or less, even if they lose them all for this period of time, they've lost nothing financially, and they figure at last 50% will return and try 2.0 and maybe sub because people are fickle, and so are their memories.

It's just a ***** you business decision made by a corporation.

I'm cool with that, but I won't pay to play their game. Not like it is. And I don't have any faith in them to pull out some amazing game a year from now. They have no track record that shows any ability to do such a thing.

It's all just really disappointing. I do hope more people decide not to pay, as nothing will speak to them more clearly then that. Paying for that game in its current state just reinforces the idea that its passable to them. Raise the bar folks.
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#21 Jan 06 2012 at 4:39 PM Rating: Good
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oh hey captain picard... I remember seeing you around on Rab - I thought your name was fab.

:)
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#22 Jan 06 2012 at 4:47 PM Rating: Good
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#23 Jan 06 2012 at 6:38 PM Rating: Excellent
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You name yourself Captain Picard, but choose a lalafel... with a moustache? At least go with "Lil Riker," or, since you seem fond of that deer suit, "Wesley Sweater."
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#24 Jan 07 2012 at 1:58 AM Rating: Decent
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Yeah the numbers are quite low but it was expected (more so from the NA/EU population which are lower than these ranging from 350-450 in most servers the week prior to billing). Square Enix was already prepared for this. According to Wada he said:


"This decision will not be popular, but it is a necessary step in building upon the foundation our fans and development team have made together and to realize the full potential of FINAL FANTASY XIV."


Chances are he got together with the supervisory board committee/executive team members maybe even some key shareholders/investors (these folks usually choose people in the supervisory board that share and promote their interests) and ended up with this as the only possible solution. I think the folks giving Wada his paycheck would not budge for anything else i.e. this is the only thing we are offering to you on the table: no more extensions and you may not use money from other projects/departments etc. Hence why he said this decision was not going to be popular, had he other choices on hand, he would of probably taken it.


Both the FFXIV Population History Trend and the FFXIV Population Recent Trend were down for some time yesterday since they were being updated. The color scheme changed and as you can tell they added the red color signifying the population of FFXIV as of January 6th and onward. They already added the red dot for yesterday, but I am not sure if in the future they will change the color scheme again or just use red dots. Throw more dots more dots.


FFXIV Population History Trend:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/oimg?key=0AsRBPKP4ZpxJdGxJRllOeGthVVhTM1NZSHJ2WDFWdGc&oid=4&zx=x0nb002hrzyo

FFXIV Population Recent Trend:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/oimg?key=0AsRBPKP4ZpxJdGxJRllOeGthVVhTM1NZSHJ2WDFWdGc&oid=5&zx=2j347wa4kvqu


There is a much more detailed version of this in a new spreadsheet that I will update in a few minutes. It will show you the graph as well as the time these population snapshots were taken and compare them to the day before as well as last week and its rate of change.
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#25 Jan 07 2012 at 2:05 AM Rating: Good
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Ok here is the updated spreadsheet I talked about in my previous post. (Note that you can change between all 4 tabs by changing the last digit to either 0 1 2 3 on the address below)


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AsRBPKP4ZpxJdGxJRllOeGthVVhTM1NZSHJ2WDFWdGc&hl=ja#gid=0


This is the main tab, it shows you the entire FFXIV Population History Trend and if you scroll at the bottom the FFXIV Population Recent Trend. If you notice on the bottom left there are 4 tabs you can choose from or change the number like I said above.


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#26 Jan 07 2012 at 4:58 PM Rating: Good
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why does the chart have ff11 listed, but doesn't have any stats for it.

also, is that TERA the MMO that has yet to come out in NA? if so, thats pretty bad if they are barely breaking 10k players since it has already been released over there (from what i understand at least). maybe i won't be looking forward to that as much as i thought.
#27 Jan 07 2012 at 5:48 PM Rating: Good
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Keysofgaruda wrote:
why does the chart have ff11 listed, but doesn't have any stats for it.

also, is that TERA the MMO that has yet to come out in NA? if so, thats pretty bad if they are barely breaking 10k players since it has already been released over there (from what i understand at least). maybe i won't be looking forward to that as much as i thought.


As far as I understand Tera did pretty badly where it was released, however they have been "westernising" and adding a lot of content for NA release so honestly I doubt it is as bad a game as the numbers in Korea or w/e it was already released, show. Who knows though developers always talk a lot, but very few walk the walk.
#28 Jan 07 2012 at 7:34 PM Rating: Good
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@Keys of Garuda

Thanks for pointing that out. Yeah it seems they will be adding FFXI numbers soon to the chart to compare it as well. The thing is they update the charts and just recently did so on January 6th to reflect the start of the billing period. These were the only charts I was able to find (I could not find any charts that had FFXIV by itself).


As far as TERA Online. Yeah it isn't doing so hot in South Korea. They started with 37 servers and went down to 35 and eventually merged again down to 15. So it is a pretty big drop. As far as Japan TERA they started with 10 servers and will be doing a massive server merge come January 25th going down to only 3. One of the main reasons is that they cannot control the rampant botting. The other reason was NHN Japan unable to provide its customers with sufficient content.


And things are not looking so great for the western audience. For the European publisher, Frogster will be handling TERA... that in itself is probably one of the worst decisions one can make... partnering with Frogster. So right there is a possibility of 3 of the 4 regions that the game will/has flopped.


That leaves NA with En Masse as its publisher. But considering that almost half the people from En Masse are from NC West, and considering how they handled Aion... yeah things do not look pretty. Which is sad since I did play during the 2 weeks of Japan's open beta for TERA and had a blast.
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#29 Jan 07 2012 at 9:50 PM Rating: Good
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Keysofgaruda wrote:
why does the chart have ff11 listed, but doesn't have any stats for it.

also, is that TERA the MMO that has yet to come out in NA? if so, thats pretty bad if they are barely breaking 10k players since it has already been released over there (from what i understand at least). maybe i won't be looking forward to that as much as i thought.


Tera isn't that good of an MMO, it's bombing in Korea and it's about what you'd expect in the Japanese release. It won't do that well in America or Europe unless they're completely changing everything about it that people are complaining about, which I don't think would happen since some of the complaints are the game is too "western" in certain aspects which will probably please NA/EU actually.

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#30 Jan 07 2012 at 9:53 PM Rating: Good
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Belcrono wrote:
As far as I understand Tera did pretty badly where it was released, however they have been "westernising" and adding a lot of content for NA release


Westernize, v., MMORPG, "to add boobs and muscly guys."
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#31 Jan 08 2012 at 5:31 AM Rating: Decent
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AmbrosiaAmor wrote:
According to Wada he said:

"This decision will not be popular, but it is a necessary step in building upon the foundation our fans and development team have made together and to realize the full potential of FINAL FANTASY XIV."

Chances are he got together with the supervisory board committee/executive team members maybe even some key shareholders/investors (these folks usually choose people in the supervisory board that share and promote their interests) and ended up with this as the only possible solution.

Three words. Free to play. If it was absolutely necessary to make money they should have left the game free to play(outside the box cost) and introduced something outside of a subscription to collect some coin.

A nifty hat? A shiny chocobo mount? Some super special, never before seen, once in a lifetime goody that you could only get by forking over 25 duckets. Much better idea than chasing away 10% of the remaining 10% of players who didn't already run for the hills.





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#32 Jan 08 2012 at 6:20 AM Rating: Good
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Charging is about rebuilding the reputation not making some money back, it's PR think tank stuff at work.

It's like a designer clothing store giving clothes away for free then realising it's not a good idea because it destroys the mental image of the property. They have to change perceptions of the game and being free is not a good one, even if it does short term (possibly long term) damage.
#33 Jan 08 2012 at 6:59 AM Rating: Decent
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Yelta wrote:
Torrence wrote:
There's good reason to be worried. Even with only a 10% dip across all servers, that's 10% they couldn't afford to lose in the first place.


I keep thinking SE must have known that this was going to happen and that they know what they are doing.


Raff Out Roud!

TwiddleDee wrote:
Torrence wrote:
we might be looking at a cash shop in XIV's future.


Don't wager more then light breath on that. I can see XIV going back to JP only, and closing servers, before it ever goes cash shop. SE as a game developer is not some back yard small time studio making mmo's for a quick buck. So what ever the final call, it would something that would be best reflect on the company's public image, above all else.


K, so you have absolutely no clue how Free2Play actually works for a developer when implemented.

Gotcha.


Edited, Jan 8th 2012 8:01am by Viertel
#34 Jan 08 2012 at 10:12 AM Rating: Good
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Currently 650 total on Mysidia server.
#35 Jan 08 2012 at 10:34 AM Rating: Decent
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Holy Crap!! A post that's actually related to the thread's topic!
Thanks for the info Bushybob :)
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#36 Jan 08 2012 at 12:06 PM Rating: Good
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492 on Rabanastre at 1806 UK time... Quite a lot considering I kinda am at the dead zone for both NA and JP prime time.
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#37 Jan 08 2012 at 12:50 PM Rating: Good
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Thanks guys for some of the posts that are actually related to my topic at hand. As for servers like Rabanastre, I didn't expect much of a dip because that's where it seems a lot of players were located.
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#38 Jan 08 2012 at 1:35 PM Rating: Good
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LillithaFenimore wrote:
Thanks guys for some of the posts that are actually related to my topic at hand. As for servers like Rabanastre, I didn't expect much of a dip because that's where it seems a lot of players were located.


I'd like to see more prime time numbers, but it honestly feels like more folks are playing during MY peak time... just hope it's that way when I move back to the States in a few months :p
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#39 Jan 08 2012 at 2:59 PM Rating: Excellent
I'm far more curious to see weekday numbers. These numbers thus far have all come over the weekend, Friday, Saturday nights, afternoons, etc, and none of them topple 1,000? One person posted on the official forums that Wutai had 99 players at one point... 99! Great, you have about 400 people on a weekend (which is still exceptionally low), how about a monday night though? I tend to mostly play on weekdays, so I'd be more curious to see numbers tomorrow.
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#40 Jan 08 2012 at 4:22 PM Rating: Default
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Looks like somewhere between 40k and 50k active subs.

Should pay for the upkeep.

Mingling with f2p when it has been established that the game will be a p2p title would be a huge mistake. Consistency is important, inconsistency only leads to confusion.
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#42 Jan 08 2012 at 7:23 PM Rating: Decent
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Another Mysidia check at 1:30AM (GMT) 490 Total players.
#43 Jan 09 2012 at 2:57 AM Rating: Good
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#44 Jan 09 2012 at 10:06 AM Rating: Excellent
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Hyanmen wrote:
Looks like somewhere between 40k and 50k active subs.


Care to show your math on that?

Looks more to me like 10k, and even that's being generous. There's 18 servers according to the server status link at the top of the page. If we take the top end of 500 players per server, that's only 9,000 active characters. Let's just double that to 1,000 active subs per server to account for the dual prime times - even that's just 18k. Tripling that to 1,500 is just 27,000 - just barely half of 50k active subs - and I'd be simply amazed if all the servers had 1,500 active subscribers on them.

While some servers may show > 1000 players during prime time, there are an equal if not greater number showing less than 500. There's no way to exclude overlap counts from players remaining logged in, or how many from Day 1's count are the same as Day 2.

50k active subs is funny math, assuming about 2,777 active subs per server. 10k is probably more accurate, with 20k being phenomenal.

Edited, Jan 9th 2012 11:08am by Whales

Edited, Jan 9th 2012 11:09am by Whales
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#45 Jan 09 2012 at 11:41 AM Rating: Good
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Whales wrote:
Hyanmen wrote:
Looks like somewhere between 40k and 50k active subs.


Care to show your math on that?

Looks more to me like 10k, and even that's being generous. There's 18 servers according to the server status link at the top of the page. If we take the top end of 500 players per server, that's only 9,000 active characters. Let's just double that to 1,000 active subs per server to account for the dual prime times - even that's just 18k. Tripling that to 1,500 is just 27,000 - just barely half of 50k active subs - and I'd be simply amazed if all the servers had 1,500 active subscribers on them.

While some servers may show > 1000 players during prime time, there are an equal if not greater number showing less than 500. There's no way to exclude overlap counts from players remaining logged in, or how many from Day 1's count are the same as Day 2.

50k active subs is funny math, assuming about 2,777 active subs per server. 10k is probably more accurate, with 20k being phenomenal.


I agree. In fact right now is the best time to estimate active subs because 90% of those paying are actually playing regularly or they would not have paid. Even if 10% (too large I think) are not playing regularly then 50k is still an outrageous number. I'd go with 18-20k. I think 10 is a little low - some servers seem to have more than 500 actives at one time.
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#46 Jan 09 2012 at 4:58 PM Rating: Good
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Whales wrote:
Hyanmen wrote:
Looks like somewhere between 40k and 50k active subs.


Care to show your math on that?

Looks more to me like 10k, and even that's being generous. There's 18 servers according to the server status link at the top of the page. If we take the top end of 500 players per server, that's only 9,000 active characters. Let's just double that to 1,000 active subs per server to account for the dual prime times - even that's just 18k. Tripling that to 1,500 is just 27,000 - just barely half of 50k active subs - and I'd be simply amazed if all the servers had 1,500 active subscribers on them.

While some servers may show > 1000 players during prime time, there are an equal if not greater number showing less than 500. There's no way to exclude overlap counts from players remaining logged in, or how many from Day 1's count are the same as Day 2.

50k active subs is funny math, assuming about 2,777 active subs per server. 10k is probably more accurate, with 20k being phenomenal.

Edited, Jan 9th 2012 11:08am by Whales

Edited, Jan 9th 2012 11:09am by Whales


Peak Concurrent Users of WoW when it had 12m sub (rounded) was under 2m. So active sub = 6 times Peak Concurrent Users. By your math, 9k player base at one given peak time, so that's 54k active sub. Unless of course you're saying WoW manipulating the active sub number, or people pay sub for WoW only to never play it.
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#47 Jan 09 2012 at 6:25 PM Rating: Good
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Khornette wrote:
Peak Concurrent Users of WoW when it had 12m sub (rounded) was under 2m. So active sub = 6 times Peak Concurrent Users.


Those figures apply to World of Warcraft, if they are correct. This is FFXIV - any attempt at correlation between the two, especially in the realm of subscription-based content, is comparing apples to radiators, especially any ratios of active subscribers to peak concurrent users.

Or was that post tongue-in-cheek and in jest and I just completely missed it? It was quite the leap in logic that is quite humorous in an attempt at parody.

Edited, Jan 9th 2012 7:26pm by Whales
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#48 Jan 09 2012 at 7:08 PM Rating: Good
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1,948 posts
Whales wrote:
Khornette wrote:
Peak Concurrent Users of WoW when it had 12m sub (rounded) was under 2m. So active sub = 6 times Peak Concurrent Users.


Those figures apply to World of Warcraft, if they are correct. This is FFXIV - any attempt at correlation between the two, especially in the realm of subscription-based content, is comparing apples to radiators, especially any ratios of active subscribers to peak concurrent users.

Or was that post tongue-in-cheek and in jest and I just completely missed it? It was quite the leap in logic that is quite humorous in an attempt at parody.

Edited, Jan 9th 2012 7:26pm by Whales


Because your attempt at calculating out active sub base does not have anything to support it, apart from your lol-dead-game. At least I have the WoW example. WoW is this hugely popular MMORPG, the difference between PCU and active sub should be much lower compared to something declared boring. Or are you saying that despite WoW being hugely popular and interesting, their player base only pay sub to not playing?

Next we have SW:TOR. People claimed it sold millions, and PCU was 350k. If we apply the WoW model, that means it has 2.1m active sub upon release, which does in fact support the claims. Unless of course once again you're saying that those claims are baseless, sub is much lower.
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#49 Jan 09 2012 at 7:09 PM Rating: Decent
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41 posts
Khornette wrote:
Whales wrote:
Hyanmen wrote:
Looks like somewhere between 40k and 50k active subs.


Care to show your math on that?

Looks more to me like 10k, and even that's being generous. There's 18 servers according to the server status link at the top of the page. If we take the top end of 500 players per server, that's only 9,000 active characters. Let's just double that to 1,000 active subs per server to account for the dual prime times - even that's just 18k. Tripling that to 1,500 is just 27,000 - just barely half of 50k active subs - and I'd be simply amazed if all the servers had 1,500 active subscribers on them.

While some servers may show > 1000 players during prime time, there are an equal if not greater number showing less than 500. There's no way to exclude overlap counts from players remaining logged in, or how many from Day 1's count are the same as Day 2.

50k active subs is funny math, assuming about 2,777 active subs per server. 10k is probably more accurate, with 20k being phenomenal.

Edited, Jan 9th 2012 11:08am by Whales

Edited, Jan 9th 2012 11:09am by Whales


Peak Concurrent Users of WoW when it had 12m sub (rounded) was under 2m. So active sub = 6 times Peak Concurrent Users. By your math, 9k player base at one given peak time, so that's 54k active sub. Unless of course you're saying WoW manipulating the active sub number, or people pay sub for WoW only to never play it.


This.

Whales wrote:
Khornette wrote:
Peak Concurrent Users of WoW when it had 12m sub (rounded) was under 2m. So active sub = 6 times Peak Concurrent Users.


Those figures apply to World of Warcraft, if they are correct. This is FFXIV - any attempt at correlation between the two, especially in the realm of subscription-based content, is comparing apples to radiators, especially any ratios of active subscribers to peak concurrent users.

Or was that post tongue-in-cheek and in jest and I just completely missed it? It was quite the leap in logic that is quite humorous in an attempt at parody.

Edited, Jan 9th 2012 7:26pm by Whales


Not this. lol.
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#50 Jan 09 2012 at 7:11 PM Rating: Decent
Scholar
41 posts
Khornette wrote:
Whales wrote:
Khornette wrote:
Peak Concurrent Users of WoW when it had 12m sub (rounded) was under 2m. So active sub = 6 times Peak Concurrent Users.


Those figures apply to World of Warcraft, if they are correct. This is FFXIV - any attempt at correlation between the two, especially in the realm of subscription-based content, is comparing apples to radiators, especially any ratios of active subscribers to peak concurrent users.

Or was that post tongue-in-cheek and in jest and I just completely missed it? It was quite the leap in logic that is quite humorous in an attempt at parody.

Edited, Jan 9th 2012 7:26pm by Whales


Because your attempt at calculating out active sub base does not have anything to support it, apart from your lol-dead-game. At least I have the WoW example. WoW is this hugely popular MMORPG, the difference between PCU and active sub should be much lower compared to something declared boring. Or are you saying that despite WoW being hugely popular and interesting, their player base only pay sub to not playing?

Next we have SW:TOR. People claimed it sold millions, and PCU was 350k. If we apply the WoW model, that means it has 2.1m active sub upon release, which does in fact support the claims. Unless of course once again you're saying that those claims are baseless, sub is much lower.


And this.

Now, instead of people feeling the need to just argue for the sake of arguing, can we get back to the original topic? I'd like to see numbers and less tardflames.
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#51 Jan 09 2012 at 8:02 PM Rating: Good
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562 posts
Khornette wrote:
Next we have SW:TOR. People claimed it sold millions, and PCU was 350k. If we apply the WoW model, that means it has 2.1m active sub upon release, which does in fact support the claims. Unless of course once again you're saying that those claims are baseless, sub is much lower.


No, I have no idea what the numbers are for SWTOR, let alone how they correspond to FFXIV. The only thing I'm stating is that each game is distinct and in no way relates to each other, you can't use a formula for calculating subscribers to active players from WoW to Rift to SWTOR to FFXIV - there's just too many extraneous factors.

Furthermore my numbers were pure speculation and not to be taken as absolute, as we do not know the population numbers for FFXIV other than what players post here. You were claiming an inferred 6:1 ratio from one MMORPG as proof of this another MMORPG's population expectation - that's simply bad logic.

If 6:1 is your guess and good faith estimate based upon data from WoW - that's awesome and you're completely correct; my numbers of themselves were estimations as well, there's no way I could argue with you over that. But statements such as

Khornette wrote:
Peak Concurrent Users of WoW when it had 12m sub (rounded) was under 2m. So active sub = 6 times Peak Concurrent Users.


imply absolute correlation between WoW and FFXIV subscriptions. We simply don't know that to be true.


Edited, Jan 9th 2012 9:35pm by Whales
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