Next we have SW:TOR. People claimed it sold millions, and PCU was 350k. If we apply the WoW model, that means it has 2.1m active sub upon release, which does in fact support the claims. Unless of course once again you're saying that those claims are baseless, sub is much lower.
No, I have no idea what the numbers are for SWTOR, let alone how they correspond to FFXIV. The only thing I'm stating is that each game is distinct and in no way relates to each other, you can't use a formula for calculating subscribers to active players from WoW to Rift to SWTOR to FFXIV - there's just too many extraneous factors.
Furthermore my numbers were pure speculation and not to be taken as absolute, as we do not know the population numbers for FFXIV other than what players post here. You were claiming an inferred 6:1 ratio from one MMORPG as proof of this another MMORPG's population expectation - that's simply bad logic.
Edited, Jan 9th 2012 9:08pm by Whales
It's bad logic, unfortunately it's the only logic in calculating an active sub base. Any other calculation anyone posted so far, does not have a tiny bit of evidence to back it up. Furthermore, WoW is an international game just like FFXIV, so the PCU vs sub base makes more sense then if you're comparing to a game released in only one region where there PCU will differ a lot less compared to a sub base (because most of the player base will be of the same region). For example Aion Asia had a PCU of 600k, which is quite different to say WoW when it had PCU of 600k. You can say with confidence that a game released internationally should have more active sub than the game released in one region, if their PCU are the same.