Forum Settings
       
This Forum is Read Only

How big of a population increase can we expect with 2.0?Follow

#52 Jul 03 2012 at 4:33 PM Rating: Excellent
Needs More Smut
******
21,262 posts
500K subscribers is nothing to sneeze at. We're not talking about extrapolated television Nielson ratings, where a TV show isn't a success if it doesn't have millions of viewers. We're not talking about offline games, where a dev has to sell X number of units to recoup their investment costs even if everyone only plays it once then sells it to Gamestop for ten bucks. A hundred thousand active users paying you $10 is a million bucks a month, and with that modest number of players, a studio can recoup its development costs within a year or two even if they give away the client for free.

There will never be another WoW, and SE would be foolish to hope for that. (The users, too: High population endgames are a headache that plagued FFXI for years until they released Abyssea and gave all the high level folks a multi-zone, content filled playground.) A modestly successful MMO will provide the company the cash it needs to invest in other games for a long time to come.

Edited, Jul 3rd 2012 6:33pm by catwho
____________________________
FFXI: Catwho on Bismarck: Retired December 2014
Thayos wrote:
I can't understand anyone who skips the cutscenes of a Final Fantasy game. That's like going to Texas and not getting barbecue.

FFXIV: Katarh Mest and Taprara Rara on Lamia Server - Member of The Swarm
Curator of the XIV Wallpapers Tumblr and the XIV Fashion Tumblr
#53 Jul 03 2012 at 10:04 PM Rating: Decent
****
4,149 posts
catwho wrote:
There will never be another WoW, and SE would be foolish to hope for that. (The users, too: High population endgames are a headache that plagued FFXI for years until they released Abyssea and gave all the high level folks a multi-zone, content filled playground.) A modestly successful MMO will provide the company the cash it needs to invest in other games for a long time to come.


XI's problem with endgame was being open world. I remember staying up until 3am for a BFT, taking a nap for a few hours and getting up to camp Fafhogg. I didn't so much have a problem with long spawn timers because I feel it was fair to limit access to battles like this, but with all the other variables it might be weeks before you actually see one and months between claims.
____________________________
Rinsui wrote:
Only hips + boobs all day and hips + boobs all over my icecream

HaibaneRenmei wrote:
30 bucks is almost free

cocodojo wrote:
Its personal preference and all, but yes we need to educate WoW players that this is OUR game, these are Characters and not Toons. Time to beat that into them one at a time.
#54 Jul 03 2012 at 11:02 PM Rating: Excellent
Needs More Smut
******
21,262 posts
The open world wasn't the issue; it was that the most desired content was open world AND on a 1 day to 5 day timer. The tiered pop systems introduced in Sky and expanded on in all the later expansions were a grand improvement. There was still competition for stuff between groups, but a shorter respawn time for trigger NMs coupled with item popped Big Bads meant that a linkshell could spend several days farming up pop items with a smaller group, and then get together the larger group for the actual event time. (That caused its own drama, although most shells used attendance based points to encourage folks to show up for farming.)
____________________________
FFXI: Catwho on Bismarck: Retired December 2014
Thayos wrote:
I can't understand anyone who skips the cutscenes of a Final Fantasy game. That's like going to Texas and not getting barbecue.

FFXIV: Katarh Mest and Taprara Rara on Lamia Server - Member of The Swarm
Curator of the XIV Wallpapers Tumblr and the XIV Fashion Tumblr
#55 Jul 03 2012 at 11:11 PM Rating: Decent
***
2,202 posts
catwho wrote:
500K subscribers is nothing to sneeze at. We're not talking about extrapolated television Nielson ratings, where a TV show isn't a success if it doesn't have millions of viewers. We're not talking about offline games, where a dev has to sell X number of units to recoup their investment costs even if everyone only plays it once then sells it to Gamestop for ten bucks. A hundred thousand active users paying you $10 is a million bucks a month, and with that modest number of players, a studio can recoup its development costs within a year or two even if they give away the client for free.

There will never be another WoW, and SE would be foolish to hope for that. (The users, too: High population endgames are a headache that plagued FFXI for years until they released Abyssea and gave all the high level folks a multi-zone, content filled playground.) A modestly successful MMO will provide the company the cash it needs to invest in other games for a long time to come.

Edited, Jul 3rd 2012 6:33pm by catwho


In today's market developers have to sell boxes in order to recuperate some of its development costs since the majority of MMO players, will not stick to one game if it does not caters to it's particular needs, we have seen this time and time again, to pretend that FFXIV is any different is plain old stupid, again nobody is talking about FFXI or if they caped or not at 500K or if 500k is good or not, the argument was weather or not FFXIV was gonna do well just because is FF Online and it will be ported to the PS3, wish as history has told us, compared to the number of games FF series has sold, and considering the game was released in 2 consoles and PC... 500K is NOTHING! When compared to every single Triple A MMO that has been releases since on just PC.

^^ Well maybe that is too complicated or not well explained, this is what i'm saying "FFXIV success cannot be predicted or counted on, just on brand name or a console, since we have data that shows that out of all the # number of copies FF as a series has sold and being released in 3 different consoles, and having no competitors at the time of release other than the already dying EQ, it was only able to peak at the same number EQ did.

It will be all about content and access, not about FF or Ps3 or ps4 or whatever else you wanna throw.
____________________________
MUTED
#56 Jul 04 2012 at 1:01 AM Rating: Good
Scholar
***
1,948 posts
#57 Jul 04 2012 at 1:38 AM Rating: Default
****
4,149 posts
catwho wrote:
The open world wasn't the issue; it was that the most desired content was open world AND on a 1 day to 5 day timer. The tiered pop systems introduced in Sky and expanded on in all the later expansions were a grand improvement. There was still competition for stuff between groups, but a shorter respawn time for trigger NMs coupled with item popped Big Bads meant that a linkshell could spend several days farming up pop items with a smaller group, and then get together the larger group for the actual event time. (That caused its own drama, although most shells used attendance based points to encourage folks to show up for farming.)

The timer only complicated the open world issue. Dyna was around for ages and was essentially a way that SE could have made these mobs instanced with a lockout. Not sure what your feeling is on this, but I would have been much happier with a weekly kings run that could be scheduled. Nothing sucks worse then logging in to find that your LS got their first Nidhogg claim in nearly 7 weeks and you missed out on the E body abjuration you were in line for because you had to work or you were in class.

I'm not sure we could find anyone to argue the case that they would have preferred camping to instanced kings. Up to 3 hours camping a mob that you have about a 10-15% chance to claim for a 1% drop rate... not even in the vicinity of anything I would relate to something that is supposed to be fun or entertaining.

Edited, Jul 4th 2012 3:39am by FilthMcNasty
____________________________
Rinsui wrote:
Only hips + boobs all day and hips + boobs all over my icecream

HaibaneRenmei wrote:
30 bucks is almost free

cocodojo wrote:
Its personal preference and all, but yes we need to educate WoW players that this is OUR game, these are Characters and not Toons. Time to beat that into them one at a time.
#58 Jul 04 2012 at 8:38 AM Rating: Good
Needs More Smut
******
21,262 posts
Right, I was talking about kings with the "1 to 5 day timer." Now kings are on a popped system, too; triggers for NQ kings are dropped from KS99, and NQ kings have a chance of popping the trigger for HQ kings. Black belts for everyone!!!!! A much, much better system all around.

Dynamis was actually really great for us on Seraph. We had a good scheduling system and 95% of shells were happy to participate in it; whenever a **** shell would ignore the schedule we would politely tell all the members of the shell that their leader had ignored the established schedule and we were really disappointed in them. Usually within a few weeks those shells would collapse because the bulk of players really aren't ****** even if the leaders were. That continued even after our merger to Bismarck, although there were some scheduled slots where we literally had 11 shells and 10 zones available until a few small groups merged up. We stuck around doing Dyna on our schedules until the change over to the new system for CoP zones, at which point we abandoned it to the BST/DNC soloers because it was a waste of time for a group.
____________________________
FFXI: Catwho on Bismarck: Retired December 2014
Thayos wrote:
I can't understand anyone who skips the cutscenes of a Final Fantasy game. That's like going to Texas and not getting barbecue.

FFXIV: Katarh Mest and Taprara Rara on Lamia Server - Member of The Swarm
Curator of the XIV Wallpapers Tumblr and the XIV Fashion Tumblr
#59 Jul 04 2012 at 9:13 AM Rating: Decent
Scholar
***
1,122 posts
#60 Jul 04 2012 at 10:55 AM Rating: Default
****
4,149 posts
catwho wrote:
Right, I was talking about kings with the "1 to 5 day timer." Now kings are on a popped system, too; triggers for NQ kings are dropped from KS99, and NQ kings have a chance of popping the trigger for HQ kings. Black belts for everyone!!!!! A much, much better system all around.


I dunno. If the HQ pop item is a 20% drop(probably a very generous estimate knowing SE) then you're looking at close to 500 Kindred Seals to farm between pops. Correct me if I'm wrong (there's a first time for everything Smiley: wink) but I'd guess that the drop rates stayed the same? I'm sure it's better than waiting weeks or sometimes months for an HQ claim, but it's still pretty bad. It's level 75 content. Might be worth the trouble if they had adjusted the mob level because KS are pretty rare and a pain in the *** to farm up, especially in that kind of volume.

I'm kinda glad they killed super alliance dynamis. If it were me I'd have allowed multiple instances of the zones and tuned the content so that a single party could clear it. Adding the proc system from abyssea to it really annoyed me for some reason.

Edited, Jul 4th 2012 12:58pm by FilthMcNasty
____________________________
Rinsui wrote:
Only hips + boobs all day and hips + boobs all over my icecream

HaibaneRenmei wrote:
30 bucks is almost free

cocodojo wrote:
Its personal preference and all, but yes we need to educate WoW players that this is OUR game, these are Characters and not Toons. Time to beat that into them one at a time.
#61 Jul 04 2012 at 11:39 AM Rating: Good
Needs More Smut
******
21,262 posts
Aye, but a well tuned party of 4 can do a KS99 now. We finished up three black belts for our tiny shell in one epic weekend.
____________________________
FFXI: Catwho on Bismarck: Retired December 2014
Thayos wrote:
I can't understand anyone who skips the cutscenes of a Final Fantasy game. That's like going to Texas and not getting barbecue.

FFXIV: Katarh Mest and Taprara Rara on Lamia Server - Member of The Swarm
Curator of the XIV Wallpapers Tumblr and the XIV Fashion Tumblr
#62 Jul 04 2012 at 2:13 PM Rating: Good
Avatar
****
4,773 posts
Devildawgs wrote:

With that said I trust your opinion as much as I trust Filth's. It's like he is Neo and your agent Smith. Two sides that battle it out. He tends to be negative and you tend to toss out a primer coat of paint. He is the black knight and you the white. When this game Finally comes out on PS3 I will trust neither of your opinions rather I'll look to the less polarizing players here and some reviews from some game sites that aren't selling there vote.


As well you should. However you mistake my stance.

I am not 'White' as you state. Not even close. I praise their chances on these and the official boards for one reason only: Devil's Advocate.

Opinions on these boards have, by their nature, a severe negative slight to them, and to check that, my opinions inverse the pull to the positive. Though this is taking my opinions on the game itself in the most general sense.

Ultimately, while I have great faith in Yoshida's ability to 'get it' he has to pull of a very precarious balance that only Blizzard has achieved in balancing hardcore and casual content, and they are fighting a severe uphill climb for subscriptions, even before taking into account their marred reputation botching it the first time.

But for every negative I can also list a positive why they still have a chance, and ignoring all those, this isn't the only tale of "coming back from the brink" that the company has pulled off. I'd like to remind people why the series is called "Final Fantasy." That first title was supposed to be Squaresoft's Swan Song, and became anything but. And they've repeated said story before, especially before the release of Final Fantasy VII.

So this is really up in the air. Completely. No company has been this invested in making a come-back for the title, and no series has has such a Pheonix Down reputation as Final Fantasy itself. Pair that off with the fact that this is perhaps the biggest challenge the company has faced before, and one way or another this is quite an interesting process to watch.

My Standards for the level of the label 'sucessful' is most likely quite lower than the average on both sides of the debate, but regardless of the actual number of subscriptions, I am fairly confident that the game will survive and grow past 2.0. With how many people is still too much of a question to answer, period. Am I sold? Yes. But I can't speak beyond myself. I do think, however, that they've got the right approach and right person on the job.
#63 Jul 04 2012 at 4:17 PM Rating: Decent
****
4,149 posts
Hyrist wrote:
Devildawgs wrote:

With that said I trust your opinion as much as I trust Filth's. It's like he is Neo and your agent Smith. Two sides that battle it out. He tends to be negative and you tend to toss out a primer coat of paint. He is the black knight and you the white. When this game Finally comes out on PS3 I will trust neither of your opinions rather I'll look to the less polarizing players here and some reviews from some game sites that aren't selling there vote.


As well you should. However you mistake my stance.

I am not 'White' as you state. Not even close. I praise their chances on these and the official boards for one reason only: Devil's Advocate.

Opinions on these boards have, by their nature, a severe negative slight to them, and to check that, my opinions inverse the pull to the positive. Though this is taking my opinions on the game itself in the most general sense.

That's kinda the definition of a 'white knight' Hyrist. Someone who comes to the defense of something else or someone else who doesn't necessarily want or need it.

Hyrist wrote:
My Standards for the level of the label 'sucessful' is most likely quite lower than the average on both sides of the debate, but regardless of the actual number of subscriptions, I am fairly confident that the game will survive and grow past 2.0.


The personal standard is really quite simple. Does FFXIV entertain you? Of course there may be other questions that branch out from this one(more entertaining than the alternative, entertaining enough to pay the monthly fee, ect.), but in it's most basic form the answer to this question is going to be your personal measurement for the game's success.

In the realm of public opinion however, an MMOs success will be based on how many subscribers they are able to maintain. People won't argue that XI is a failure because they didn't have as many subs as WoW or SWtoR, but they will argue that XIV is a failure because 90% of the people who tried it decided they didn't like it enough to sub.

Edited, Jul 4th 2012 6:18pm by FilthMcNasty
____________________________
Rinsui wrote:
Only hips + boobs all day and hips + boobs all over my icecream

HaibaneRenmei wrote:
30 bucks is almost free

cocodojo wrote:
Its personal preference and all, but yes we need to educate WoW players that this is OUR game, these are Characters and not Toons. Time to beat that into them one at a time.
#64 Jul 04 2012 at 7:01 PM Rating: Good
Avatar
****
4,773 posts
FilthMcNasty wrote:

That's kinda the definition of a 'white knight' Hyrist. Someone who comes to the defense of something else or someone else who doesn't necessarily want or need it.

No, that's the negative slur people use for the correct term 'devil's advocate' which is an individual who chooses defend a perspective that does not have representation. (Regardless of whether or not they agree with said perspective.) If this forum was all rainbows and sunshine, I'd be commenting on where the game needs improvement, and then you'd call be a Black Knight, or some other slur to justify your disregard for an opposing opinion.

The way a Devils Advocate shift depends entirely on the tone of the environment if I'm speaking overly positively then the reasoning is likely because of the extreme opposite tone of the crowd.

If I find two strongly opposing views already represented, I try to assume the moderate stance. Here, it's not so easy due to how incessant you are in your negative outlook - I believe I've already said this to you before.

Quote:
The personal standard is really quite simple. Does FFXIV entertain you? Of course there may be other questions that branch out from this one(more entertaining than the alternative, entertaining enough to pay the monthly fee, ect.), but in it's most basic form the answer to this question is going to be your personal measurement for the game's success.


Which should ultimately be the question discussed on this boards, rather than debating economics in the numbers that the vast majority of the people on this board could never truly comprehend anyways.

Quote:
In the realm of public opinion however, an MMOs success will be based on how many subscribers they are able to maintain. People won't argue that XI is a failure because they didn't have as many subs as WoW or SWtoR, but they will argue that XIV is a failure because 90% of the people who tried it decided they didn't like it enough to sub.


The realm of 'public opinion' once thought that accused witches that knew how to swim were truly witches and should be burned at the stake, or stoned to death and only the ones that died by drowning were innocent.

The realm of 'public opinion' once thought the world was flat.

The realm of 'public opinion' in some cultures still think that killing yourself by detonating a bomb in a highly populated area nets you an afterlife full of beautiful female virgins waiting to be deflowered by you.

*stare*

The realm of fact dictates that FFXIV will be a success if it's gains outweigh its losses in the long term. So long as they glean a profit from their subscriptions, the raw number isn't relevant, though Yoshi makes a lofty goal of trying to be the best. Remember, FFXI was a very niche game and it's subscriber base has been dwarfed several times over by more successful MMOs. It is still, by far, the most profitable game SE has created to date.

So while I agree that SE should focus on creating content that sustains their subscriptions, the root number of those subscriptions needed to be maintained is a matter of debate for corporate offices, not fan forums. FFXI does not have the subscriber base it once had. If the expansion from FFXI and FFXIV's 2.0 together could recoup FFXI's profit losses, SE would likely be in good standing.

Edited, Jul 4th 2012 9:02pm by Hyrist
#65 Jul 04 2012 at 7:38 PM Rating: Good
Scholar
*
117 posts
They've done nothing in terms of advertising 2.0 yet to anyone outside of the current FFXIV fan base. Here's what I anticipate is their marketing plan but its mostly speculation on my part (other than what has been confirmed already).

They stated that there will be a big media blow out soon after E3. We're still in the "soon after E3" phase right now, SE doesn't know what soon means, but beyond the point - its coming. They said they will be releasing a brand new website showing off all the changes coming with 2.0. Part of that strategy is rebranding FFXIV as well, that is why in all the new screenshots they released they wrote FFXIV as FFX|V. Its subtle and I've never taken a marketing class in my life but apparently its different enough that it might be effective. As in people will start associating it with version 2.0 and not with 1.0.

Beyond this, I think the new FFXI expansion is also in some way part of their plan to bolster FFXIV. They had a strong loyal FFXI fan base that absolutely loved their game. My assumption is they want to bring people back with an FFXI hype and trickle them into FFXIV at the same time by giving some sort of discount or free trials to FFXI members.

And lastly there is the PS3. They will market the crap out of the PS3 version and it'll get enough media attention to even grab the attention of the PC players who have long left. TGS is coming up and its going to be huge for SE. They left E3 without much really but TGS is just as effective as all the big media coverage also covers that show.

Beyond this, SE is going to be releasing some form of PvP, Chocobo Breeding, Housing and Free Company system at launch as far as I remember (someone correct me if I'm wrong). These are big in terms of giving the game a little more umph than simply an Engine and UI change. There's a lot they mentioned that probably wont make launch but my guess is they will have enough low end and end game content to keep people busy until expansions or updates.

I don't think FFXIV will roll in 2 Million subs over night on its re-release but with time it can turn into a fairly successful MMO with logevity, in the same sense FFXI was successful and at this point I think that's all SE is going for.
#66 Jul 04 2012 at 9:03 PM Rating: Decent
****
4,149 posts
Hyrist wrote:
FilthMcNasty wrote:

That's kinda the definition of a 'white knight' Hyrist. Someone who comes to the defense of something else or someone else who doesn't necessarily want or need it.

No, that's the negative slur people use for the correct term 'devil's advocate' which is an individual who chooses defend a perspective that does not have representation.

Devil's advocate takes the opposite side of the argument for the sake of arguing. If you are playing devil's advocate then you don't...
Hyrist wrote:
try to assume the moderate stance

as you say you do. In essence, you are taking a polar position opposite to the 'negative'. The reason why this is a case of white knighting is that the party you are arguing for, in this case the developer of the game, doesn't even try to defend their actions. You do realize that Wada is right behind you apologizing to us, don't you?
Yoichi Wada - An Important Announcement for Final Fantasy XIV Fans wrote:
We deeply regret that the game has yet to achieve the level of enjoyability that Final Fantasy fans have come to expect from the franchise. We realize that time is of the essence and we are fully determined to provide our customers with quality service. The Final Fantasy XIV team is working hard to bring our customers an unparalleled adventure, and we ask for your continued understanding and support as we march ever diligently toward that goal.

He's doing fine. You look silly standing between us with that shield while he's asking for forgiveness and understanding.

Hyrist wrote:
FilthMcNasty wrote:
The personal standard is really quite simple. Does FFXIV entertain you? Of course there may be other questions that branch out from this one(more entertaining than the alternative, entertaining enough to pay the monthly fee, ect.), but in it's most basic form the answer to this question is going to be your personal measurement for the game's success.
Which should ultimately be the question discussed on this boards, rather than debating economics in the numbers that the vast majority of the people on this board could never truly comprehend anyways.

As a company driven by profit, do you think that SE would consider XIV successful thus far? We don't need to know their target numbers and projections to determine that XIV isn't successful by that standard Hyrist. There is no one to debate that XIV isn't making money for SE; unless you'd like to play devil's advocate. Don't do it man. /wada err, I mean /beg Smiley: disappointed

Hyrist wrote:
The realm of fact dictates that FFXIV will be a success if it's gains outweigh its losses in the long term. So long as they glean a profit from their subscriptions, the raw number isn't relevant, though Yoshi makes a lofty goal of trying to be the best. Remember, FFXI was a very niche game and it's subscriber base has been dwarfed several times over by more successful MMOs. It is still, by far, the most profitable game SE has created to date.

I agree with this 100%... which is why I really feel badly for them. SE's follow up to XI, the most profitable game SE has ever created(even more profitable that that one game that had like half a dozen spin-offs, a movie, some comic books and anime and was released, re-released and now will probably be re-re-released) will have such a colossal shadow cast over it. No pressure Yoshi!

Hyrist wrote:
FFXI does not have the subscriber base it once had. If the expansion from FFXI and FFXIV's 2.0 together could recoup FFXI's profit losses, SE would likely be in good standing.

I'm not sure what this means, but it did make me think of something that very well may turn into another issue for SE...

Seekers of Adoulin: A fitting parting gift from Tanaka perhaps... or XIV killer? Smiley: dubious

You're a good sport Hyrist.

Edited, Jul 4th 2012 11:07pm by FilthMcNasty
____________________________
Rinsui wrote:
Only hips + boobs all day and hips + boobs all over my icecream

HaibaneRenmei wrote:
30 bucks is almost free

cocodojo wrote:
Its personal preference and all, but yes we need to educate WoW players that this is OUR game, these are Characters and not Toons. Time to beat that into them one at a time.
#67 Jul 05 2012 at 4:21 AM Rating: Decent
Scholar
***
2,153 posts
Btw, what happened to the new website said to launch "soon after" the E3?
"Soon after" in valve time, or... (heavens forfend!) SE time?
Normally promotional websites launch months before the game does...
#68 Jul 05 2012 at 5:41 AM Rating: Good
*
97 posts
I checked the roadmap for FFXIV yesterday, supposedly the big advertising starts begin August. Alpha and Beta testing from October on.
____________________________
FFXI - Ragnar - Whm75 - Kujata - Retired 2007
FFXI - Monarc - Smn76/Drg76/Whm75 - Kujata - Retired 2010

FFXI currently installing again?!? - July 2012
#69 Jul 05 2012 at 7:59 AM Rating: Decent
Scholar
***
3,599 posts
Ostia wrote:
catwho wrote:
500K subscribers is nothing to sneeze at. We're not talking about extrapolated television Nielson ratings, where a TV show isn't a success if it doesn't have millions of viewers. We're not talking about offline games, where a dev has to sell X number of units to recoup their investment costs even if everyone only plays it once then sells it to Gamestop for ten bucks. A hundred thousand active users paying you $10 is a million bucks a month, and with that modest number of players, a studio can recoup its development costs within a year or two even if they give away the client for free.

There will never be another WoW, and SE would be foolish to hope for that. (The users, too: High population endgames are a headache that plagued FFXI for years until they released Abyssea and gave all the high level folks a multi-zone, content filled playground.) A modestly successful MMO will provide the company the cash it needs to invest in other games for a long time to come.

Edited, Jul 3rd 2012 6:33pm by catwho


In today's market developers have to sell boxes in order to recuperate some of its development costs since the majority of MMO players, will not stick to one game if it does not caters to it's particular needs, we have seen this time and time again, to pretend that FFXIV is any different is plain old stupid, again nobody is talking about FFXI or if they caped or not at 500K or if 500k is good or not, the argument was weather or not FFXIV was gonna do well just because is FF Online and it will be ported to the PS3, wish as history has told us, compared to the number of games FF series has sold, and considering the game was released in 2 consoles and PC... 500K is NOTHING! When compared to every single Triple A MMO that has been releases since on just PC.

^^ Well maybe that is too complicated or not well explained, this is what i'm saying "FFXIV success cannot be predicted or counted on, just on brand name or a console, since we have data that shows that out of all the # number of copies FF as a series has sold and being released in 3 different consoles, and having no competitors at the time of release other than the already dying EQ, it was only able to peak at the same number EQ did.

It will be all about content and access, not about FF or Ps3 or ps4 or whatever else you wanna throw.


Speaking of ignoring others' arguments, You haven't mentioned anything about the PS3 userbase numbers that you stated were in third place.

Just taking it on numbers, you have a LARGE potential market that is untapped. They know the brand but have only read about the game. They potentially played or play FFXI. They've probably played another FF. No one is saying there will be a million PS3 users.

WHY do you keep bring up this 500k number? Where did you get it? SE has never released official subscription numbers, EVER. They did release an update to announce that they have officially gone over 2 million active characters though.

So why do you keep offering up this speculated number as a fact? Obviously active characters includes mules, but do you assume all players have mules? Someone would have to do some serious maths using the Vana'diel census to determine what percentage of that number are mules by looking at level %s.

In 2009, 62% of characters were level 1 (mules) making that 1.24 million mules and about 760k subscribers. (It's important to note that this means over 11 million in revenue PER month.)

So.. I don't think SE really gives 2 sh*ts about box sales as long as they can keep subscribers, which they can and do. FFXI is still going while so many others are flash in the pan which seems to be giving you the impression that MMOs are no longer desired and therefore will fail. These other mmos NEED box sales because they don't or can't sustain a userbase, which is what SE is trying to ensure with the legacy campaign.

People will play it and buy it even with a terrible reputation. In fact, it's been proven that games that get TERRIBLE reviews go on to sell as well as great games because they have name recognition. Look at the worst games of 2012 Amy was one of the top games on PS3 after receiving a 2.0 and I Am Alive got a 4.5 and continues to sell buckets worth.

Eventually the bad stigma of a game fades, but you still remember the name.

____________________________


#70 Jul 05 2012 at 9:18 AM Rating: Default
Scholar
***
2,153 posts
Quote:
I checked the roadmap for FFXIV yesterday, supposedly the big advertising starts begin August.


And there I thought SE was deaf to my demands: Here it is.
http://jp.finalfantasyxiv.com/
#71 Jul 05 2012 at 9:26 AM Rating: Default
Scholar
***
2,153 posts
Edit:
Turns out I was right all along. SE once again managed to appear not deaf, just lure you to the BIG NEW TEASER SITE ANNOUNCED ON THE OFFICIAL FORUMS... to give you RIGHT what you asked for. A teaser site that contains already-known concept art, and BEHOLD!!!: A link to the official forum.

Since when did SE adopt ZAM`s "happy friday" tradition?


#72 Jul 05 2012 at 12:45 PM Rating: Decent
16 posts
I forsee a huge population increase for Beta2.0. The likelihood is a huge influx of returning players to take advantage of this free opportunity to see all the changes in the game. In the actual retail though, I believe it depends on when or if SE can show some actual meat. They have to make advertising as enticing as 1.0; enough to make a person want to go out and buy a box copy. I think they are somewhat in hot water. They really should've showcased SOMETHING besides concept art at E3. Continuing to wait this late as the window closes for 2.0 launch really hurts their bottom line.

Edited, Jul 5th 2012 2:45pm by Baxtergourme
#73 Jul 05 2012 at 10:44 PM Rating: Excellent
Scholar
***
2,801 posts
SE had their chance to get it right once. Most people aren't going to be terribly forgiving. I imagine some will go back if they think things have dramatically improved. Everyone else has moved on to the shiny new toys (Tera, GW2, etc etc etc).
____________________________
WoW -- Zaia -- Dragonmaw -- Mage 80 BABY! Alchemy 450
Also... Hunter 62, Rogue 52, Warrior 66, Warlock 43, Death Knight 70, Shaman Who Cares? ;)

FFXI -- Caia -- Retired/Deleted -- Blm 75, Alchemy 97
Pandimonium server - Rank 10 - Bastok

Zaela Rdm -- 35, Alchemy 45 -- Forced into retirement because I didn't have the right kind of credit card. Hope it was worth 18 bucks a month, SE.

#74 Jul 05 2012 at 11:10 PM Rating: Excellent
***
1,313 posts
KaneKitty wrote:
Perrin, ****** Superhero wrote:
They will... MMO and F2P games are going to become the dominant titles, whether subsription MMOs will convert to F2P remains to be seen... I think it depends what Blizzard does with their next MMO since pretty much everyone else is blindly following their lead.


"Free" to play games are increasing only because companies realized that many people will pay $1 per item sooner than they'll pay $30 for an entire expansion. :\

You're certainly right that everyone will probably just blindly follow whatever Blizzard does either way. I can tell you, though, that between selling more and more items with greater effects on gameplay in WoW, splitting up Starcraft II into a $60 game and two $40 "expansions" before you can even get each species' storyline, and making entire real-money auction systems (from which they take at least 15% of every transaction and penalize you another 15% if you want to actually convert the earnings into real currency), I think it's pretty obvious that Blizzard will be going the way of both micro- and macro-transactions. Whatever they can charge for, they will.


... and I'll keep paying because there are things to do when I log on and an abundance of other players to do them with immediately after logging in, almost any time of the day. Call me crazy.
____________________________
Eithne Draocht
My IG: archaicmachinery - Friend me!
#75 Jul 06 2012 at 3:54 PM Rating: Decent
Avatar
****
4,773 posts
Filth, if I could reach through the comptuer I'd smack you. Did you just try to use 2 a year old statment to deface my current status on the game? Smiley: mad There is so many logical flaws in using such evidence that you be violetly removed of your fingers should your use of such stances becomes infectious.

First off, Clarification:

Quote:

devil's advocate
n
1. a person who advocates an opposing or unpopular view, often for the sake of argument

1. One who argues against a cause or position, not as a committed opponent but simply for the sake of argument or to determine the validity of the cause or position.


If the form base leans heavy on one side challenging it by taking the opossing viewpoint helps determine the validity of the argument.

Conversely, if the base seems devided, the it is the moderate view that becomes the unpopular view, therefore it fufills the Role of the Devil's advoctate to point out the obvious flaws in both stances and assume's the moderate place.

The ultimate result in taking the Devil's Advocate view is the progression of the intelectual discource of the conversation. NOT the circular reasoning that most people put up as an intelectual wall. I, by default, challenge your perception in an effort to force you to think and defend your stance in the face of evidence or perspectives to the contarary. Vary rarely will I take a 'moral' ground one way or another on issues rather than apeal to get people to think beyond themselves and their dispositions.

Quote:
As a company driven by profit, do you think that SE would consider XIV successful thus far? We don't need to know their target numbers and projections to determine that XIV isn't successful by that standard Hyrist. There is no one to debate that XIV isn't making money for SE; unless you'd like to play devil's advocate. Don't do it man. /wada err, I mean /beg


Red herring. The question within the context of this thread isn't "IS FFXIV sucessful." That question is already answered in difinitive terms. The question implied by the subject of this thread is "What would it take, population wise, for FFXIV to become successful?" To which I flatly said that our's isn't the place to know, and that most people on these boards would spectulate without any understanding on how the monitary economy of MMO's is.

But to bite at the bait myself I did speculate that as FFXI was their most profitable game, all they really have to do is recoup the numbers LOST in FFXI's peak subscription base to eventually glean a profit from FFXIV, and the fact that FFXI's expansion is on the way, it may be possible for FFXI to become more profitable again as well.

FFXIV as a Square Enix venture will not be closed down, because doing so would admit utter defeat, and Square Enix as a company is too prideful for that. They'd rather attempt to make it up to us continually than simply give up - and it would take a whole lot more beating from the disgrunteled players then they received from FFXIV's initial releace, to get them to break that. Remember: This is the company of comebacks, they would rather turn this failure into a success story.

Quote:
Seekers of Adoulin: A fitting parting gift from Tanaka perhaps... or XIV killer?


Neither, if SoA follows tradition - which is, release as minimal content of the Expansion as possible on the actual 'releace date' and trickel in additional content for the expansion as time wears on. Following that, Tanaka will be gone long before the full of the content is released, and his replacement will have ample time to change details he deems unfit for the current audience.

As far as FFXI being the FFXIV killer. Again, doubtful, different games appealing to different people, even with the overlap. And lets not forget the FFXI players permanently disenfranchised by the release of Abysea, or players who join FFXIV spontaniously, or because it runs mechanics differently.

If anything, FFXI will only be the FFXIV killer if Yoshi caves and tries to duplicate al the mechanics of FFXI, because FFXI has nostalgia and ten years of content to back up its particular niche. Yoshi knows this, and has done well in making sure he's not appealing specifically to that Niche. I just hope he undersands that he needs to cast a wide net to catch the straggeling fish in the MMO field right now.
#76 Jul 06 2012 at 5:31 PM Rating: Decent
****
4,149 posts
Hyrist wrote:
The ultimate result in taking the Devil's Advocate view is the progression of the intelectual discource of the conversation.

There isn't an opposite side for you to advocate for Hyrist. My position is in the middle. You may see it as negative because it isn't all sunshine and butterflies, but I give credit where due and criticism where necessary as well. The only discourse in this thread where the conversation and context is all speculative will be the actual result, which we won't know until... well, the release date is speculation too. Go figure.

Hyrist wrote:
FFXIV as a Square Enix venture will not be closed down, because doing so would admit utter defeat, and Square Enix as a company is too prideful for that.

Pride is expensive. The OP is asking about the longevity of the game which ultimately comes down to how successful it is(read: how many people pay for it so SE continues to support it with worthwhile content).

Hyrist wrote:
As far as FFXI being the FFXIV killer. Again, doubtful, different games appealing to different people, even with the overlap. And lets not forget the FFXI players permanently disenfranchised by the release of Abysea

There isn't much difference. They're both Final Fantasy games. Crystals, moogles and horsebirds. Adventurers coming together to save the world despite being screwed over by some unseen enemy laughing and rubbing their hands together rolling million sided dice.

The reason abyssea caused people to quit is because SE lied. People spent the better part of the games lifespan grinding and farming for what they thought would be the be all end all gear. Larger, tight-knit linkshells broke apart because of changes made to the game to allow smaller groups to clear and complete content. One of the most hardcore(read: grind and forced group play) MMOs ever went very casual very quickly and it rubbed some people the wrong way. Like I said before, SE doesn't do subtle. Had they eased into it or struck more of a balance there probably wouldn't have been any issue.
____________________________
Rinsui wrote:
Only hips + boobs all day and hips + boobs all over my icecream

HaibaneRenmei wrote:
30 bucks is almost free

cocodojo wrote:
Its personal preference and all, but yes we need to educate WoW players that this is OUR game, these are Characters and not Toons. Time to beat that into them one at a time.
#77 Jul 09 2012 at 4:11 PM Rating: Excellent
Hi guys. It's been quite some time since I've visited the forum. Could anyone give me a quick update?

1.) I doubt they have made any changes whatsoever to the payment options or the patcher, correct?
2.) Still have to open ports in the 56000 range to make the patcher work?

Having bought a new router recently, I'm just curious how big a hassel it will be to check out the latest in-game changes for myself. Assuming they haven't made changes to the payment options or patcher, I'm looking at 10+ hours of account/payment updates, troubleshooting and buying a replacement router just to play the game again. Not to mention an overnight download or two for the recent patches at the dismal speed the patcher can obtain.

Does SE know that even experienced players are cringing at the thought of what it will take to return to FFXIV?


Edited, Jul 9th 2012 6:12pm by SmashingtonWho
#78 Jul 09 2012 at 5:10 PM Rating: Excellent
Avatar
***
2,045 posts
Quote:
People will play it and buy it even with a terrible reputation. In fact, it's been proven that games that get TERRIBLE reviews go on to sell as well as great games because they have name recognition. Look at the worst games of 2012 Amy was one of the top games on PS3 after receiving a 2.0 and I Am Alive got a 4.5 and continues to sell buckets worth.

Eventually the bad stigma of a game fades, but you still remember the name.


Not really true, FFXIV is 2 years old now and still doesn't have enough people playing to sustain itself unaided.
____________________________
BANNED
#79 Jul 09 2012 at 5:50 PM Rating: Decent
Avatar
****
4,773 posts
FilthMcNasty wrote:

There isn't an opposite side for you to advocate for Hyrist. My position is in the middle. You may see it as negative because it isn't all sunshine and butterflies, but I give credit where due and criticism where necessary as well. The only discourse in this thread where the conversation and context is all speculative will be the actual result, which we won't know until... well, the release date is speculation too. Go figure.


Your position is about as middle of the road as the right wing nut jobs who think the Tea Party wasn't paid for by corporations, Filth.



Quote:
Pride is expensive. The OP is asking about the longevity of the game which ultimately comes down to how successful it is(read: how many people pay for it so SE continues to support it with worthwhile content).

If you think SE isn't willing to bleed for years to make this game work, I'll remind you of the fact that this game was free for a year. FFXIV will continue as long as there are people playing it. Whether or not you would like to believe it, the CURRENT populace could sustain the game. It would not be profitable for several years in this manner, mind you.


Quote:
There isn't much difference.


Stopped reading there. You're dead wrong.

FFXI was wildly criticized for it's difficulty throughout the length of its life. It is STILL complained about for it's unnecessary time-sinks and unintuitive mechanics. FFXI disenfranchised the bulk of Final Fantasy fans, fans who can still be tapped for future subscriptions in either game. FFXIV by comparison is a much easier game to start with.

If you believe FFXIV can't tap some of that base, you're chances of being correct are a statistical impossibility. Even more so given the fact that FFXIV will be a bit more of a throwback fan-service than FFXI was.



Quote:
The reason abyssea caused people to quit is because SE lied...


Don't speak for the majority. Some people left because of the level cap. Some people left because they hated Abyssea, some people left because they found Voidwatch ultimately an insult AFTER Abyssea. Some people thought Abyssea was the best thing since sliced bread and came BACK to the game for it. Ultimately, FFXI was bleeding subscriptions before Abyssea came out and while Abyssea was a shot in the arm for many, it also disenfranchised some hardcore that wanted to continually be the best, and it wasn't enough to get rid of the fact that FFXI is an old game. Tanaka's quickly diminishing reputation did not help this either.

They have however, displayed that they are doing something else FFXI players thought they weren't going to do, which is release a new expansion. We'll see what that does for the game's populace.


Ultimately, you may believe your position is in the middle, but it's flatly not. To be honest your tone coined as some of the most negative on this board to the point where when your name is viewed on the boards as a listed poster, it's expected of you to be negative. There's no two ways about that. Whether or not you keep that vein is up to you, but at this point you're fighting your own reputation. Looking forward to the future where you will be pointing out every instance you're positive just to spite me, however.

Edited, Jul 9th 2012 7:50pm by Hyrist
#80 Jul 09 2012 at 5:53 PM Rating: Decent
Avatar
****
4,773 posts

preludes wrote:


Not really true, FFXIV is 2 years old now and still doesn't have enough people playing to sustain itself unaided.


It's running about 30k roughly. Some MMOs run still with half that number.

Edited, Jul 9th 2012 7:54pm by Hyrist
#81 Jul 09 2012 at 8:31 PM Rating: Good
****
4,149 posts
Hyrist wrote:
If you think SE isn't willing to bleed for years to make this game work, I'll remind you of the fact that this game was free for a year. FFXIV will continue as long as there are people playing it. Whether or not you would like to believe it, the CURRENT populace could sustain the game. It would not be profitable for several years in this manner, mind you.


So much wrong with this I don't even know where to start...

I am aware that SE is willing to try and repair XIV, which is more than most companies would try. What you seem to be unaware of is that there is still a breaking point, a point at which SE either pulls the plug or moves to B2P.

Lets be honest here, no one gives a **** if XIV can 'sustain'. SE is a business, not a charitable cause. The only way XIV would turn a profit by sustaining the current playerbase would be to completely abandon any and all adjustments, updates or future content and expansions. It isn't feasible to create the quantity or quality of content that people will expect in return for their subscription fee.

Hyrist wrote:
FFXI was wildly criticized for it's difficulty throughout the length of its life. It is STILL complained about for it's unnecessary time-sinks and unintuitive mechanics. FFXI disenfranchised the bulk of Final Fantasy fans, fans who can still be tapped for future subscriptions in either game. FFXIV by comparison is a much easier game to start with.

Difficulty is not related to the amount of time it takes to obtain or achieve something. It wasn't hard grinding crabs for hours a day and months at a time to level up jobs in XI, but it was tedious as ****.

XI disenfranchised typical FF fans because it's not a single-player, story-driven RPG. It's possible that these fans may be more likely to try an FF MMO over another because of the brand, but it hasn't happened yet. What would lead you to believe that it will happen in the future?

Hyrist wrote:
To be honest your tone coined as some of the most negative on this board to the point where when your name is viewed on the boards as a listed poster, it's expected of you to be negative.


You can make anyone look negative when you stack them up next to a bunch of cheerleaders and apologists. I'm not here to make friends and I couldn't care less about my rep. It's an internet forum, not a popularity contest. I'll never take the hot chic home because I told her I am a sage on ZAM. Maybe her ugly friend Smiley: bah

____________________________
Rinsui wrote:
Only hips + boobs all day and hips + boobs all over my icecream

HaibaneRenmei wrote:
30 bucks is almost free

cocodojo wrote:
Its personal preference and all, but yes we need to educate WoW players that this is OUR game, these are Characters and not Toons. Time to beat that into them one at a time.
#82 Jul 10 2012 at 8:44 AM Rating: Default
***
2,202 posts
well seems like somebody got their *** handed to them lol
____________________________
MUTED
#83 Jul 10 2012 at 11:16 AM Rating: Excellent
Sage
*
106 posts
SmashingtonWho wrote:
Hi guys. It's been quite some time since I've visited the forum. Could anyone give me a quick update?

1.) I doubt they have made any changes whatsoever to the payment options or the patcher, correct?

I quit for about a year and just came back a little over a month ago, and the payment options are way better. I didn't need to create another account with a different company or anything, I just entered my credit card information on the Square Enix Account Management site. Imagine that!

Quote:
2.) Still have to open ports in the 56000 range to make the patcher work?

I don't know about the ports since I am still using the same router & haven't changed the settings that I initially used in 2010, but the patches do seem to download much quicker.
____________________________
FFXIV: Nimoy Riese / Hyperion
FFXI: Nimoy / Pandemonium
#84 Jul 12 2012 at 4:39 AM Rating: Excellent
***
1,726 posts
Quote:
In today's market developers have to sell boxes in order to recuperate some of its development costs since the majority of MMO players, will not stick to one game if it does not caters to it's particular needs, we have seen this time and time again, to pretend that FFXIV is any different is plain old stupid, again nobody is talking about FFXI or if they caped or not at 500K or if 500k is good or not, the argument was weather or not FFXIV was gonna do well just because is FF Online and it will be ported to the PS3, wish as history has told us, compared to the number of games FF series has sold, and considering the game was released in 2 consoles and PC... 500K is NOTHING! When compared to every single Triple A MMO that has been releases since on just PC.

^^ Well maybe that is too complicated or not well explained, this is what i'm saying "FFXIV success cannot be predicted or counted on, just on brand name or a console, since we have data that shows that out of all the # number of copies FF as a series has sold and being released in 3 different consoles, and having no competitors at the time of release other than the already dying EQ, it was only able to peak at the same number EQ did.


FFXI peaked over EQ's peak numbers and it held at levels higher than EQ had for several years before it declined in 2009 due to neglect. The numbers are out there for people to find (graphs, websites tracking it, etc). Something that often gets forgotten is FFXI and FFXIV were made in different phases of the industry. FFXI was made for a much smaller MMO industry. 1M was a wild, impractical dream for any 1 MMO then. It was developed with a much smaller budget than FFXIV, and evidently, much smaller than most if not all FFs after FFVI based on some of the numbers I've seen discussed.

How much did SE expect FFXIV to have to be a success? We don't know, but we can deduce some scale from FFXIV shipping 600,000 in its 1st month. One would surmise that SE had aims of just under 1M to well over 1M in mind for a playerbase, more than they ever could dream for FFXI. They also gave FFXIV a much bigger budget. Ergo, FFXIV was designed to attract a large audience and compete against the big MMOs, not to make an old school MMO that could thrive on now 'small' numbers. As it was built for that audience, it needs an audience that size to recoup its development costs (though FFXIV 2.0 needs to recoup not just v2.0 costs but also v1.0 costs & costs during the f2p year).

FFXI was a huge success. It got great numbers for a pre-WoW industry and had a strong, international population early on too. That FFXI is the most profitable FF game in history over FFVII, which can sell like no- production cost hotcakes on PSN on top of its original + Greatest Hits sales is telling. 500,000 may be nothing now, but it's over 10 times more than FFXIV has ever had. FFXIV can only prove otherwise if FFXIV can get more players than that. MMOs as a whole *are* different than console games. FFXI attracted an eclectic mix of players and alienated an eclectic mix. Some people just won't touch any MMO, some won't touch any sub-based MMO but will "f2p" MMOs. Some MMO fans won't touch a console-based MMO (PC elitists) or a Japan-originating MMO (types that prefer Western-made RPGs, types that don't like to play with foreign-speaking populations). Yes, these were points many brought up against FFXI back in the early-mid '00s. The FF name attracts some, deters some (and for some, despite being absolutely loyal fans of the series, they just won't cross the online barrier). Despite all those issues, FFXI got a large population in NA & Europe and despite MMOs being brand new in Japan, many Japanese made the leap (which is where the PS2 platform probably greatly helped). FFXI attracted a mix of MMO fans curious about the top console RPG's online venture, some console gamer FF fans willing to cross the digital divide, people who play both PC games & consoles, and some MMO fans ready to move onto the next big thing, which was FFXI in 2003 and until WoW launched, and any other group I'm forgetting.

____________________________
=================================================
Somewhere out there, there is a road with 2 signs on it. One says "No Trespassing". The sign right next to it says "FREE KITTENS".
=================================================
#85 Jul 12 2012 at 4:50 AM Rating: Excellent
***
1,726 posts
And let me add...

Quote:
Quote:
Not really true, FFXIV is 2 years old now and still doesn't have enough people playing to sustain itself unaided.


It's running about 30k roughly. Some MMOs run still with half that number.


Hyrist, at 30k population, how long do you think it would take FFXIV to recoup development costs?
____________________________
=================================================
Somewhere out there, there is a road with 2 signs on it. One says "No Trespassing". The sign right next to it says "FREE KITTENS".
=================================================
#86 Jul 12 2012 at 9:26 AM Rating: Decent
****
4,149 posts
zoogelio wrote:
And let me add...

Quote:
Quote:
Not really true, FFXIV is 2 years old now and still doesn't have enough people playing to sustain itself unaided.


It's running about 30k roughly. Some MMOs run still with half that number.


Hyrist, at 30k population, how long do you think it would take FFXIV to recoup development costs?


XIV would be celebrating it's ten year anniversary about the same time they started to profit if they kept 30k players. 7 years of development and 10 years of service to produce a profit. Of course, this assumes that they don't invest another dime in the project. No holiday events, no additions to the storyline, no content updates and no expansions ... nothing at all for the next ten years.

I already asked Hyrist if he would pay for this kind of service, but he hasn't been back to respond. I'd like to give him the benefit of the doubt and say that he's smarter than that. Hopefully he won't come back and prove me wrong.


____________________________
Rinsui wrote:
Only hips + boobs all day and hips + boobs all over my icecream

HaibaneRenmei wrote:
30 bucks is almost free

cocodojo wrote:
Its personal preference and all, but yes we need to educate WoW players that this is OUR game, these are Characters and not Toons. Time to beat that into them one at a time.
#87 Jul 12 2012 at 9:30 AM Rating: Excellent
Thanks for the reply Nainz. Sounds like you had a fairly easy time returning, good to hear.
#88 Jul 12 2012 at 9:37 AM Rating: Good
Avatar
***
3,112 posts
I am sure that SE would be happy with an additional 100k subs at least for a few months to feed some money back into the system. Would it make it a profit? likely not... I am not going to play either side though. I've learned that speculation only leads to disappointment in some form... I think it is safe to say that there will be a jump in players for 2.0 just due to people's morbid curiosity if nothing else... only time will tell if those people will find enough things done right to warrant starting up again.

Speaking from an FFXI perspective, I played since beta and only quit last November... not because I didn't like the content (although I had no interest in VoidWatch and Abyssea was fun for a while, but quickly became a running joke), but because all of my friends had finally moved on to other things. Even with talk of expansions coming, I have absolutely no interest in going back to a game where I have so many fond memories of things I did with friends, only to find an old and empty shell of the game it formerly was. A game that thrived on building relationships with other players to adventure and progress. I think unless FFXIV can capture that sort of nostalgia again in a unique form, it is bound to fall to the wayside like so many other MMOs. But as long as I have some friends there to laugh with, it will hold my attention.
____________________________
95THF, 95DRG, 90BRD, 94BLM, 95BLU, 90COR - Retired: Nov 2011
Someday soon my friends, this ride will come to and end, and we can't just get in line again.
#89 Jul 12 2012 at 10:38 AM Rating: Good
Avatar
***
2,045 posts
Quote:
It's running about 30k roughly. Some MMOs run still with half that number.


You know how much FFXIV cost to create? you know how much v2 cost to develop with its 200 developers working on it full time, it's probably cost around 70-100mill so far. now count how much the subs come to for x30-50k players per month/year. Now subtract wages for devs which are expensive and all the other costs of development of new content and running costs out of that.

If the game ran for 5-6 years it would never make a profit with 30-50k subs after costing so much to make. Not even counting it's already used up 2 years of its lifespan in failure..mmos these days are very hard to keep alive long-term cause there are just so many new games coming out to steal players.

FFXIV needs to go from 30k subscribers it has now, overtake FFXI which has 300k and get close to 1 million subscribers to ever make a profit. Keep in mind the first months is the golden time because these games bleed subscribers after that point, so it needs to get a ton of subscribers at the start to offset the losses over the years it runs.

Low sub numbers (300k) for FFXI was ok cause it cost almost nothing to develop, that won't work for 14.

Edited, Jul 12th 2012 12:40pm by preludes
____________________________
BANNED
#90 Jul 12 2012 at 11:03 AM Rating: Excellent
Sage
**
534 posts
preludes wrote:


Low sub numbers (300k) for FFXI was ok cause it cost almost nothing to develop, that won't work for 14.


Hence the reason Yoshi is being forthcoming with information about the changes in V2 being more like WOW. He is trying to get the word out that V2 will not be V1 in as many ways as humanly possible. They cannot develop 2.0 into something unique(as some posters are crying about) and expect to get the subscriptions needed to someday turn a profit...or at least make some $$ back. They already know they will never actually make money in FFXIV...but the can at least save some face and regain some strength into the FF brand for future releases.
____________________________
Amos Fin - Ultros

#91 Jul 12 2012 at 11:08 PM Rating: Good
***
2,202 posts
zoogelio wrote:
Quote:
In today's market developers have to sell boxes in order to recuperate some of its development costs since the majority of MMO players, will not stick to one game if it does not caters to it's particular needs, we have seen this time and time again, to pretend that FFXIV is any different is plain old stupid, again nobody is talking about FFXI or if they caped or not at 500K or if 500k is good or not, the argument was weather or not FFXIV was gonna do well just because is FF Online and it will be ported to the PS3, wish as history has told us, compared to the number of games FF series has sold, and considering the game was released in 2 consoles and PC... 500K is NOTHING! When compared to every single Triple A MMO that has been releases since on just PC.

^^ Well maybe that is too complicated or not well explained, this is what i'm saying "FFXIV success cannot be predicted or counted on, just on brand name or a console, since we have data that shows that out of all the # number of copies FF as a series has sold and being released in 3 different consoles, and having no competitors at the time of release other than the already dying EQ, it was only able to peak at the same number EQ did.


FFXI peaked over EQ's peak numbers and it held at levels higher than EQ had for several years before it declined in 2009 due to neglect. The numbers are out there for people to find (graphs, websites tracking it, etc). Something that often gets forgotten is FFXI and FFXIV were made in different phases of the industry. FFXI was made for a much smaller MMO industry. 1M was a wild, impractical dream for any 1 MMO then. It was developed with a much smaller budget than FFXIV, and evidently, much smaller than most if not all FFs after FFVI based on some of the numbers I've seen discussed.

How much did SE expect FFXIV to have to be a success? We don't know, but we can deduce some scale from FFXIV shipping 600,000 in its 1st month. One would surmise that SE had aims of just under 1M to well over 1M in mind for a playerbase, more than they ever could dream for FFXI. They also gave FFXIV a much bigger budget. Ergo, FFXIV was designed to attract a large audience and compete against the big MMOs, not to make an old school MMO that could thrive on now 'small' numbers. As it was built for that audience, it needs an audience that size to recoup its development costs (though FFXIV 2.0 needs to recoup not just v2.0 costs but also v1.0 costs & costs during the f2p year).

FFXI was a huge success. It got great numbers for a pre-WoW industry and had a strong, international population early on too. That FFXI is the most profitable FF game in history over FFVII, which can sell like no- production cost hotcakes on PSN on top of its original + Greatest Hits sales is telling. 500,000 may be nothing now, but it's over 10 times more than FFXIV has ever had. FFXIV can only prove otherwise if FFXIV can get more players than that. MMOs as a whole *are* different than console games. FFXI attracted an eclectic mix of players and alienated an eclectic mix. Some people just won't touch any MMO, some won't touch any sub-based MMO but will "f2p" MMOs. Some MMO fans won't touch a console-based MMO (PC elitists) or a Japan-originating MMO (types that prefer Western-made RPGs, types that don't like to play with foreign-speaking populations). Yes, these were points many brought up against FFXI back in the early-mid '00s. The FF name attracts some, deters some (and for some, despite being absolutely loyal fans of the series, they just won't cross the online barrier). Despite all those issues, FFXI got a large population in NA & Europe and despite MMOs being brand new in Japan, many Japanese made the leap (which is where the PS2 platform probably greatly helped). FFXI attracted a mix of MMO fans curious about the top console RPG's online venture, some console gamer FF fans willing to cross the digital divide, people who play both PC games & consoles, and some MMO fans ready to move onto the next big thing, which was FFXI in 2003 and until WoW launched, and any other group I'm forgetting.



Thanks for making my point for me in a clearer way lol
____________________________
MUTED
#92 Jul 12 2012 at 11:11 PM Rating: Good
***
2,202 posts
Simool wrote:
preludes wrote:


Low sub numbers (300k) for FFXI was ok cause it cost almost nothing to develop, that won't work for 14.


Hence the reason Yoshi is being forthcoming with information about the changes in V2 being more like WOW. He is trying to get the word out that V2 will not be V1 in as many ways as humanly possible. They cannot develop 2.0 into something unique(as some posters are crying about) and expect to get the subscriptions needed to someday turn a profit...or at least make some $$ back. They already know they will never actually make money in FFXIV...but the can at least save some face and regain some strength into the FF brand for future releases.


Yeah they are sure making the FF brand strong... with FFXIII-2.... and never releasing VS <.< SE JUST RELEASE TYPE 0 IT IS AWESOME!!! WHY WONT YOU!!!
____________________________
MUTED
#93 Jul 13 2012 at 5:36 AM Rating: Decent
Scholar
***
3,599 posts
preludes wrote:
[quote]
FFXIV needs to go from 30k subscribers it has now, overtake FFXI which has 300k and get close to 1 million subscribers to ever make a profit. Keep in mind the first months is the golden time because these games bleed subscribers after that point, so it needs to get a ton of subscribers at the start to offset the losses over the years it runs.

Low sub numbers (300k) for FFXI was ok cause it cost almost nothing to develop, that won't work for 14.

Edited, Jul 12th 2012 12:40pm by preludes


I ask again, since SE does not release official subscriber numbers, what *** are you pulling these from?
____________________________


#94 Jul 13 2012 at 7:22 AM Rating: Good
Sage
**
534 posts
Ostia wrote:
Simool wrote:
preludes wrote:


Low sub numbers (300k) for FFXI was ok cause it cost almost nothing to develop, that won't work for 14.


Hence the reason Yoshi is being forthcoming with information about the changes in V2 being more like WOW. He is trying to get the word out that V2 will not be V1 in as many ways as humanly possible. They cannot develop 2.0 into something unique(as some posters are crying about) and expect to get the subscriptions needed to someday turn a profit...or at least make some $$ back. They already know they will never actually make money in FFXIV...but the can at least save some face and regain some strength into the FF brand for future releases.


Yeah they are sure making the FF brand strong... with FFXIII-2.... and never releasing VS <.< SE JUST RELEASE TYPE 0 IT IS AWESOME!!! WHY WONT YOU!!!


Heh...I was going through the different Versus videos last night..again...they just don't get old. My only guess as to why it has never been released is they bit off more than they could chew and have been waiting for technology to catch up with their plans. Maybe they are are waiting for the PS4 for all we know.
____________________________
Amos Fin - Ultros

#95 Jul 13 2012 at 9:24 AM Rating: Decent
*
97 posts
zoogelio wrote:
FFXI peaked over EQ's peak numbers and it held at levels higher than EQ had for several years before it declined in 2009 due to neglect


This is the most prominent reason FFXI went into decline, thank you. People were leaving left and right because they ran out of things to do. The add-ons that started with A Crystalline Prophecy put a dent in the trust others and I had that FFXI was still going strong in terms of what we wanted. And the announcement of FFXIV was a big letdown too, you could guess SE would mainly focus on FFXIV and letting FFXI linger on a bit with very small updates. Abyssea was the final nail in the coffin for us though, with the level cap included of course. Had SoA been announced right after Wings of the Goddess was completed, most friends I played with would've stayed I reckon. It sure would keep most players interested in the game. Ack, what I wouldn't have given for a new add-on in 2009... Now everything is changed and gone, most people I played with left before I did. Hmmm, maybe I should go back and don't do cap quests beyond 75, start a new linkshell with a cap of 75 and have fun old skool..... maybe.....

Time will tell, I'm eager to give 2.0 a try, maybe I'll like it... I'm sure there will be at least some fun the first months with the new influx of PS3 players.
____________________________
FFXI - Ragnar - Whm75 - Kujata - Retired 2007
FFXI - Monarc - Smn76/Drg76/Whm75 - Kujata - Retired 2010

FFXI currently installing again?!? - July 2012
#96 Jul 13 2012 at 11:08 AM Rating: Good
Avatar
****
4,773 posts
zoogelio wrote:
And let me add...

Quote:
Quote:
Not really true, FFXIV is 2 years old now and still doesn't have enough people playing to sustain itself unaided.


It's running about 30k roughly. Some MMOs run still with half that number.


Hyrist, at 30k population, how long do you think it would take FFXIV to recoup development costs?


Short answer, longer than FFXI's been running. SE has pretty much swallowed the development cost into other projects (Wonder where Versus went?) and their profits. Hoping for revival story success. Yoshi goes as far as to say he'll be able to maintain the full team (well over one hundred strong) after the 2.0's re-release, but I'm not that optimistic. Many will likely get reassigned or pull double duty.

No matter how many subscribers FFXIV winds up with, it'll be a good long while before FFXIV turns a profit. But they won't let a cash cow die because it's sickly. So long as FFXIV pulls in more than it's maintenance costs, they'll keep it going. It would be a more devastating move financially to pull the plug.
#97 Jul 13 2012 at 12:16 PM Rating: Default
Sage
**
534 posts
Hyrist wrote:
zoogelio wrote:
And let me add...

Quote:
Quote:
Not really true, FFXIV is 2 years old now and still doesn't have enough people playing to sustain itself unaided.


It's running about 30k roughly. Some MMOs run still with half that number.


Hyrist, at 30k population, how long do you think it would take FFXIV to recoup development costs?


Short answer, longer than FFXI's been running. SE has pretty much swallowed the development cost into other projects (Wonder where Versus went?) and their profits. Hoping for revival story success. Yoshi goes as far as to say he'll be able to maintain the full team (well over one hundred strong) after the 2.0's re-release, but I'm not that optimistic. Many will likely get reassigned or pull double duty.

No matter how many subscribers FFXIV winds up with, it'll be a good long while before FFXIV turns a profit. But they won't let a cash cow die because it's sickly. So long as FFXIV pulls in more than it's maintenance costs, they'll keep it going. It would be a more devastating move financially to pull the plug.



http://www.gamebreaker.tv/mmorpg/mmo-market-peaked/

The days of subscription based MMO's are coming to an end. FFXIV may start out with a monthly fee...but highly doubtful it will last long. FFXIV may not be able maintain a playerbase willing to pay as more and more new non-sub based MMOs start hitting the market. The MMO climate is changing faster than FFXIV can react. They will either have to drop the fees or be willing to have a fairly small player base who is willing to pay.

So...assuming this is true...which is not really a new revelation, FFXIV will never re-coup their costs. V2.0 is all about saving face at this point.
____________________________
Amos Fin - Ultros

#98 Jul 13 2012 at 12:27 PM Rating: Good
Avatar
**
852 posts
Simool wrote:
Hyrist wrote:
zoogelio wrote:
And let me add...

Quote:
Quote:
Not really true, FFXIV is 2 years old now and still doesn't have enough people playing to sustain itself unaided.


It's running about 30k roughly. Some MMOs run still with half that number.


Hyrist, at 30k population, how long do you think it would take FFXIV to recoup development costs?


Short answer, longer than FFXI's been running. SE has pretty much swallowed the development cost into other projects (Wonder where Versus went?) and their profits. Hoping for revival story success. Yoshi goes as far as to say he'll be able to maintain the full team (well over one hundred strong) after the 2.0's re-release, but I'm not that optimistic. Many will likely get reassigned or pull double duty.

No matter how many subscribers FFXIV winds up with, it'll be a good long while before FFXIV turns a profit. But they won't let a cash cow die because it's sickly. So long as FFXIV pulls in more than it's maintenance costs, they'll keep it going. It would be a more devastating move financially to pull the plug.



http://www.gamebreaker.tv/mmorpg/mmo-market-peaked/

The days of subscription based MMO's are coming to an end. FFXIV may start out with a monthly fee...but highly doubtful it will last long. FFXIV may not be able maintain a playerbase willing to pay as more and more new non-sub based MMOs start hitting the market. The MMO climate is changing faster than FFXIV can react. They will either have to drop the fees or be willing to have a fairly small player base who is willing to pay.

So...assuming this is true...which is not really a new revelation, FFXIV will never re-coup their costs. V2.0 is all about saving face at this point.


This sort of thing shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. It's been clear as more and more information has come out of the 1.x and now 2.0, there is absolutely nothing visionary or unique about this game now. They're just picking and choosing things from other games rather than going back to the drawing board on their own. It's clear they're playing catch up with 2004, much less 2012. I fear they will have such all this money into a new game that, once again, will be years behind the curve both in gameplay and business practice.
____________________________
#99 Jul 13 2012 at 1:48 PM Rating: Good
Avatar
****
4,773 posts
As much respect I have for Michael Pacter, I disagree that it's peaked for good. Has it hit a plateau? Yes, as indications have shown. However the dip really has to do with the horse pulling the wagon here: World of Warcraft.

She's an old dog now and even with the new expansion, nothing really changes the cold hard fact that the game is aged and on the decline, with no real challenger yet on the plate.

It's hard to call that situation done and gone the way of the Dodo at this point when we haven't even hit a two million dip in subscribers.

Now, that's not to say a Free to Play market isn't lucrative as all daylights. My goodness just look at League of Legends. Riot Games knocked one out of the park there. But to say Subscription based MMOs are dead is far from it.

Now, the question of if FFXIV will ever recover their costs. Nah, I'm in agreement, probably not. Only SE knows those numbers though, and in no way is FFXIV as expensive as SWTOR yet, so feel bad about those guys first.

But as far as being said that FFXIV isn't up to current business pratice and gameplay curve, that's assuming ANYONE is ahead of the curve in that department. Each MMO seems to ride itself on one innovation and fall short in other departments. I suspect 2.0 to be similar. But honestly, having a game that has a good number of good dependable mechanics with enough of the edge in the right places might work in FFXIV's case.

But no, I don't have high expectations for subscriptions. Though I in no way know how they would do a Free to Play model. They will probably settle for a lower subscription number. That's not to say they won't come out with a good or even great game. I just don't think they can overcome the damage already done to themselves in a high saturation market.
#100 Jul 13 2012 at 7:06 PM Rating: Good
Needs More Smut
******
21,262 posts
I refuse to pay money in "free to play" games.

I hated it when it was introduced into Dreamscape back in 1999, and I still hate it today.

I made 26 extra Facebook accounts rather than give a red cent to Zynga for Farmville. (Shortly after I hit level 50 in Farmville they announced they were raising the level cap to 75, and I quit while the quitting was good and subsequently blocked all facebook apps.)

Frankly, I'd rather pay a flat fee each month and know that I have the same odds of getting a drop for my $15 a month, than have to pay nothing but be given the option to straight up buy the loot from the game. It disgusts me.

The day that FFXI and FFXIV go free to play is the day I retire from them as MMOs. I have plenty of other things to do with my time than compete with folks who are happy to drop hundreds of dollars at a time for virtual items.

Edit: Halfway through a Dynamis Lord, look at all the pretty typos...

Edited, Jul 13th 2012 9:08pm by catwho
____________________________
FFXI: Catwho on Bismarck: Retired December 2014
Thayos wrote:
I can't understand anyone who skips the cutscenes of a Final Fantasy game. That's like going to Texas and not getting barbecue.

FFXIV: Katarh Mest and Taprara Rara on Lamia Server - Member of The Swarm
Curator of the XIV Wallpapers Tumblr and the XIV Fashion Tumblr
#101 Jul 13 2012 at 9:24 PM Rating: Decent
****
4,149 posts
catwho wrote:
I refuse to pay money in "free to play" games.

The day that FFXI and FFXIV go free to play is the day I retire from them as MMOs. I have plenty of other things to do with my time than compete with folks who are happy to drop hundreds of dollars at a time for virtual items.


Fair enough catwho, but F2P != B2W. It's completely possible to support a game that doesn't charge a monthly fee by adding items that are vanity onry.

If XI/XIV ditched their sub fees they could probably support the game by selling items that don't enhance your character's performance. People would gladly pay for colored chocobos, mog house furniture or moogle suits. I wouldn't buy them myself, but I'd be happy as **** that there were enough other people who would. Thanks for allowing me to play for free fuzzy moogle suit girl. I really appreciate that I don't have to scrounge for that extra 15 bucks purple chocobo dude.
____________________________
Rinsui wrote:
Only hips + boobs all day and hips + boobs all over my icecream

HaibaneRenmei wrote:
30 bucks is almost free

cocodojo wrote:
Its personal preference and all, but yes we need to educate WoW players that this is OUR game, these are Characters and not Toons. Time to beat that into them one at a time.
This forum is read only
This Forum is Read Only!
Recent Visitors: 23 All times are in CST
Anonymous Guests (23)