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How big of a population increase can we expect with 2.0?Follow

#102 Jul 14 2012 at 2:39 AM Rating: Decent
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Whatever it will be, it will be over 9000!!! (because it appears FFXIV's numbers haven't dropped below 9k at any time ever)


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#103 Jul 16 2012 at 9:17 AM Rating: Good
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FilthMcNasty wrote:
catwho wrote:
I refuse to pay money in "free to play" games.

The day that FFXI and FFXIV go free to play is the day I retire from them as MMOs. I have plenty of other things to do with my time than compete with folks who are happy to drop hundreds of dollars at a time for virtual items.


Fair enough catwho, but F2P != B2W. It's completely possible to support a game that doesn't charge a monthly fee by adding items that are vanity onry.

If XI/XIV ditched their sub fees they could probably support the game by selling items that don't enhance your character's performance. People would gladly pay for colored chocobos, mog house furniture or moogle suits. I wouldn't buy them myself, but I'd be happy as **** that there were enough other people who would. Thanks for allowing me to play for free fuzzy moogle suit girl. I really appreciate that I don't have to scrounge for that extra 15 bucks purple chocobo dude.


This.

Over the next 6 months...watch the sales numbers on GW2. It may be the road map for future MMO's. Content/expansion driven economics with online stores for non-tactical accessories. Its happening like it or not. SOE has already announced EQnext was going with the F2P model. Others will follow.

Will this work for FFXI and FFXIV? Probably not since they have already been released and FF players are more than happy to pay a month sub for a game they enjoy. I'm not really sure they would need go F2P to keep FF players from going to other F2P MMO's.

But in general...expect more and more high end MMO's to start F2P in the coming years.


Edited, Jul 16th 2012 11:18am by Simool

Edited, Jul 16th 2012 11:29am by Simool
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#104 Jul 16 2012 at 10:05 AM Rating: Decent
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What I hope it will be: 750,000 to 1,000,000 subs
What I predict it will be: ~250,000 steady subs
What is it actually going to be: Magic 8 ball... Wait and see
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#105 Jul 16 2012 at 7:20 PM Rating: Default
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Hyrist wrote:
We'll have to hold off on posting till Red Mage comes out in FFXIV then.



AGREED!
#106 Jul 17 2012 at 2:41 AM Rating: Good
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I think the question isn't really how big an increase will the game get because it's obvious there is almost no interest in this game still (if this game really was going to x20 it's entire population there would be a ton of interest on all XIV forums), but how long will SE run it at a loss before going F2P. They won't shut this down after all the money spent but there is no way they can continue to run it at a loss long term. Especially when the players will demand more and more content and money spent on it.
#107 Jul 17 2012 at 3:44 AM Rating: Decent
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Runespider wrote:
I think the question isn't really how big an increase will the game get because it's obvious there is almost no interest in this game still (if this game really was going to x20 it's entire population there would be a ton of interest on all XIV forums), but how long will SE run it at a loss before going F2P. They won't shut this down after all the money spent but there is no way they can continue to run it at a loss long term. Especially when the players will demand more and more content and money spent on it.

I see your question and raise you another...

Even if they do go F2P... will 2.0 be better than other F2P options to get enough people to play regardless of subscription?

I honestly don't know how they would go F2P unless they came out with some bonus for people who have been paying all this time. How would you handle the situation of legacy players who invested in the game? Some legacy Smiley: glare

Edited, Jul 17th 2012 5:44am by FilthMcNasty
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HaibaneRenmei wrote:
30 bucks is almost free

cocodojo wrote:
Its personal preference and all, but yes we need to educate WoW players that this is OUR game, these are Characters and not Toons. Time to beat that into them one at a time.
#108 Jul 17 2012 at 8:00 AM Rating: Good
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FilthMcNasty wrote:
Runespider wrote:
I think the question isn't really how big an increase will the game get because it's obvious there is almost no interest in this game still (if this game really was going to x20 it's entire population there would be a ton of interest on all XIV forums), but how long will SE run it at a loss before going F2P. They won't shut this down after all the money spent but there is no way they can continue to run it at a loss long term. Especially when the players will demand more and more content and money spent on it.

I see your question and raise you another...

Even if they do go F2P... will 2.0 be better than other F2P options to get enough people to play regardless of subscription?

I honestly don't know how they would go F2P unless they came out with some bonus for people who have been paying all this time. How would you handle the situation of legacy players who invested in the game? Some legacy Smiley: glare

Edited, Jul 17th 2012 5:44am by FilthMcNasty


This... I haven't been paying nearly as long as some people, but it would be a pretty big kick in the nuts to all the people paying a sub to get the Legacy deal just to have the game go F2P. I honestly wouldn't mind if they did a F2P model eventually, but I would think they would have to provide a pretty awesome in-game bonus to any players that had been subbing for a long enough time (maybe tiered selectable prizes based off subscription time... something unique and usable that would be a symbol of the dedication).

That being said, seeing a bunch of RMT running around with the unique legacy item might dishearten a whole lot of people... as we all know that they have been subbing the longest :P
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#109 Jul 17 2012 at 9:26 AM Rating: Good
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Runespider wrote:
I think the question isn't really how big an increase will the game get because it's obvious there is almost no interest in this game still (if this game really was going to x20 it's entire population there would be a ton of interest on all XIV forums), but how long will SE run it at a loss before going F2P. They won't shut this down after all the money spent but there is no way they can continue to run it at a loss long term. Especially when the players will demand more and more content and money spent on it.


You repeatedly say there is no interest in FFXIV.

1) There's no data for your claim.
2) We are still in the time BEFORE the 2.0 marketing campaign.

I think you are perceiving no interest because there's no board activity. There's no board activity because there's no news to talk about for new potential players aside from "should I return?"

I'm not saying there's a big interest waiting, but I can guarantee there will be, at least for the first month or so. You can always count on MMO jumpers when any new MMO is released, not counting the people who would get a free first month for already owning a copy.


The real question is, what kind of numbers can we expect in month 2, 3, 4 and beyond?
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#110 Jul 17 2012 at 2:36 PM Rating: Good
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Louiscool wrote:
1) There's no data for your claim.


The subscription numbers while the game was free a few months ago were a pretty clear indicator.

Louiscool wrote:
2) We are still in the time BEFORE the 2.0 marketing campaign.


There is no interest for now and until SE can provide some proof that 2.0 will actually be the 'miracle patch' that people are hoping it is, there won't be. If someone who didn't play was interested in XIV they would quickly find that there is currently no new information on what 2.0 would bring and that interest would quickly fade.

When a company decides to hold all of their info on what they're doing to improve their product (i.e. saving up for a flood of information) it's going to create a lull in interest vs a steady stream of new information; a progress report if you will. It's not my game to market or develop, but for obvious reasons this choice is going to influence interest of prospective players.
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Rinsui wrote:
Only hips + boobs all day and hips + boobs all over my icecream

HaibaneRenmei wrote:
30 bucks is almost free

cocodojo wrote:
Its personal preference and all, but yes we need to educate WoW players that this is OUR game, these are Characters and not Toons. Time to beat that into them one at a time.
#111 Jul 18 2012 at 7:32 AM Rating: Excellent
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If 2.0 is successful i would expect 200-300k subscribers. If it fails the game is ready for shutdown or P2W.
#112 Jul 18 2012 at 10:35 PM Rating: Good
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FilthMcNasty wrote:
If XI/XIV ditched their sub fees they could probably support the game by selling items that don't enhance your character's performance. People would gladly pay for colored chocobos, mog house furniture or moogle suits. I wouldn't buy them myself, but I'd be happy as **** that there were enough other people who would. Thanks for allowing me to play for free fuzzy moogle suit girl. I really appreciate that I don't have to scrounge for that extra 15 bucks purple chocobo dude.


What most people do not realize is that there is no such thing as an item that does not affect gameplay. Vanity only items still affect the game: they could have been rewards for strange and unique quests, taking on a cult or meme status in-game; they could be recipes for diligent crafters, rewarding those who actually play the game and specialize their skills; they could be unique vanity NM drops, making the game world that much fuller and the monsters that much more useful; and so on.

A vanity item may not directly affect combat, but one must understand that it does affect the game. It robs the game of content that could have been experienced through playing it and changes that content into nothing greater than the entry of one's credit card data.
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#113 Jul 18 2012 at 11:45 PM Rating: Decent
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KaneKitty wrote:
What most people do not realize is that there is no such thing as an item that does not affect gameplay.

Context. The 'affect' in the initial post refers to an advantage one player might gain over another by being able to purchase something.
catwho wrote:
I have plenty of other things to do with my time than compete with folks who are happy to drop hundreds of dollars at a time for virtual items.

The whole point of my post was to show that just because a game goes F2P doesn't mean it automatically becomes P2W.
KaneKitty wrote:
Vanity only items still affect the game: they could have been rewards for strange and unique quests, taking on a cult or meme status in-game; they could be recipes for diligent crafters, rewarding those who actually play the game and specialize their skills; they could be unique vanity NM drops, making the game world that much fuller and the monsters that much more useful; and so on.

It's up to the developer whether or not they choose to make certain items cash shop onry, but there isn't any reason they couldn't allow for players to acquire these items either way. As an example, League of Legends allows you to either purchase unlockables from the cash shop or use points earned from playing the game to purchase them. As long as these items are bound to the account that purchases them, there will be no affect on combat or on the game economy in XIV.

Edited, Jul 19th 2012 2:39am by FilthMcNasty
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Rinsui wrote:
Only hips + boobs all day and hips + boobs all over my icecream

HaibaneRenmei wrote:
30 bucks is almost free

cocodojo wrote:
Its personal preference and all, but yes we need to educate WoW players that this is OUR game, these are Characters and not Toons. Time to beat that into them one at a time.
#114 Jul 19 2012 at 12:17 AM Rating: Good
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When I think of F2P I think of the BF3 shortcut DLC that does nothing else than unlocking everything for you. What used to be done through a cheat code now used money instead.
#115 Jul 20 2012 at 8:56 AM Rating: Excellent
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There is, however, a lot of buzz on non-gaming specific boards from gamers who are slightly interested on whether V2 is going to suck or not.

I think it really will boil down to whether it gets panned by critics again or not.

Option #1: Game is amazing, awesome, critics say "wow they managed to fix it, you should definitely play this game" and sub numbers peak at a half a million and eventually reach sustainable levels of 250K or more a month. This is what SE is aiming for.

Option #2: Game is good, critics say, "This is a decent game, you should give it a shot." Sub numbers peak out at 250K and settle down into a respectable 200K a month. This is more likely than #1.

Option #3: Game sucks. Critics pan it again. It's over. SE gives up. This is less likely than #1 or #2, but could still happen.
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#116 Jul 20 2012 at 10:38 AM Rating: Default
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If XIV isn't an exact clone of WoW Option #3 is most likely. Critics praise the living **** out of Rift/SWTOR/GW2 even though they're absolutely nothing new and Rift itself was an exact replica of WoW without the cartoony graphics and a ffxi garrison type system. GW2's only draw is it's no longer a hub game like GW was and it's going to be "not P2P"..who doesn't like the false allure of not paying for an MMO at all?

Tera's only draw is the battle system and naked ladies, otherwise deep down they stated it's no good, but naked ladies? That pretty much guarantees sales.

Like I said, I have very little faith in XIV succeeding let alone gaining a lot of population now that they're saying **** being unique they now have to NOT fail at being a WoW clone or it definitely is over for them.
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