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I think ARR will succeed.Follow

#1 Feb 27 2013 at 3:06 AM Rating: Excellent
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The thing is, when people look at ARR, they can't see the forest from the trees.

They define ARR as an MMORPG, first and foremost. Second, they (might) define ARR as a Final Fantasy game.
The implications from this are: 1) ARR is in direct competition with other MMO's and 2) ARR players are MMO players.

This might very well be the case. However, I have to ask you a question.

What does ARR not have that single player FF games have?

There is a strong setting with a main story supporting it, with cutscenes that already in 1.0 could compare to that of other FF's. There are side scenarios with their own cutscenes and flow. Unique characters accompany you during said stories.
There is a solid soundtrack creating an ambience for every situation be it battling or witnessing a sad scene.
The graphics are top-of-line and the art style is in line with Final Fantasy traditions.
The game is full of the series staples, moogles chocobos and summons, which all serve a major role in the game.
The world is basically a complete opposite of XIII tunnels. It is the world FF fans have been hoping for ever since PSX FF's.
The gameplay represents FF staples gameplay as well as an MMO could. GCD is basically an ATB gauge.
The game will be released on consoles, where there are millions of FF fans.

Now, with all this said - there really is little reason to put the MMO aspect of ARR ahead of the FF of ARR.
In fact, it would be far more beneficial for the game and it's players to identify the game as a Final Fantasy in an MMO setting, rather than an MMO in a Final Fantasy setting. This is not at all inaccurate, unless the game for some reason can't stand on it's own legs. However, with what was said above, I hardly see this being the case.

In the end, even if other aspects of the game end up being similar to other MMO's, no one can copy the FFness of the game. And this game has a lot of it.

Lastly, MMO's such as XI and WoW all created their playerbases out of people not having played MMO's before. FF in particular probably had a lot of people coming from the single player series to try it out. Thus to me, it is a bit silly to think that this game has to scrap its playerbase out of other MMO and XI players. As if everyone else is excluded.

SE has a huge task ahead of them, but at this point it could be said that it is mostly marketing related. There is no reason for the game to not appeal to all FF fans, once they realize that the stigma of MMO is largely unwarranted. This is a Final Fantasy game.

Edited, Feb 27th 2013 12:19pm by Hyanmen
#2 Feb 27 2013 at 3:24 AM Rating: Decent
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Quote:
What does ARR not have that single player FF games have?


Let me flip that on you. It's not what ARR doesn't have that other FF games have, it's one thing that it DOES have that other FF games don't:

The expectation that you'll play it for more than 50-100 hours, and plenty of filler and timesinks watering it down to help ensure that you do.
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Good games are subjective like good food is subjective. You're not going to seriously tell me that there's not a psychological basis for why pizza is great and lutefisk is revolting. The thing about subjectivity is that, as subjects go, humans actually have a great deal in common.
#3 Feb 27 2013 at 3:26 AM Rating: Default
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And though I probably don't need to expound on that, the point being, if people leave your game even after 200 hours of play, it will be completely dead within a few months. So converting most Final Fantasy games to an MMO would not be a prudent business strategy.
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Hyrist wrote:
Ok, now we're going to get slash fiction of Wint x Kachi somehere... rule 34 and all...

Never confuse your inference as the listener for an implication of the speaker.

Good games are subjective like good food is subjective. You're not going to seriously tell me that there's not a psychological basis for why pizza is great and lutefisk is revolting. The thing about subjectivity is that, as subjects go, humans actually have a great deal in common.
#4 Feb 27 2013 at 3:43 AM Rating: Good
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Kachi wrote:
Let me flip that on you. It's not what ARR doesn't have that other FF games have, it's one thing that it DOES have that other FF games don't:

The expectation that you'll play it for more than 50-100 hours, and plenty of filler and timesinks watering it down to help ensure that you do.


Modern MMO's add filler and timesinks to the endgame, not the way there.

And so do single player FF games, only on a smaller scale.

The point being, it's entirely up to the player at that point as to whether to continue playing or not. It doesn't take away from the game living up to par of single player games.
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#5 Feb 27 2013 at 4:54 AM Rating: Default
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And Modern MMO's struggle to maintain subscribers. If the game is boring at the end, players will still leave after a few months. But most MMO's manage to be boring on the way to the endgame. ****, a few years ago, even WoW was reporting that 70% of the people who created an account with them never made it to level 10 before quitting.

You don't have a lot of time to hook new players, and if you throw almost all of your content at them in the early game like GW2 did, you'll probably have a dead game in a few months. As for Final Fantasy games, an incredibly small percentage of players will give them more than 100 hours, so I'm still going to disagree with your main point--a successful Final Fantasy as an MMO means nothing given a subscription service model.
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Hyrist wrote:
Ok, now we're going to get slash fiction of Wint x Kachi somehere... rule 34 and all...

Never confuse your inference as the listener for an implication of the speaker.

Good games are subjective like good food is subjective. You're not going to seriously tell me that there's not a psychological basis for why pizza is great and lutefisk is revolting. The thing about subjectivity is that, as subjects go, humans actually have a great deal in common.
#6 Feb 27 2013 at 5:18 AM Rating: Excellent
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I think ARR will succeed, but not everyone will sing its praises. There's three main camps to consider:

1. The MMO crowd
2. The FFXI crowd
3. Final Fantasy fans and former FFXI players

The MMO crowd won't be cruel to FFXIV anymore, but the only thing that will really impress them about ARR is that FFXIV is not dead. FFXIV simply doesn't offer the innovation they like to see compared to what's on the market. Heck, it's not even the first Final Fantasy Online game. I predict a mediocre response that's right down the middle between bad and great (but while nominating FFXIV for the Most Improved MMO award).

The FFXI crowd who are still into FFXI also aren't likely to switch, but for the very opposite reason: there's altogether too much innovation compared to FFXI. They'll be hoping for something where everything about the game is hardcore (maybe even more than FFXI is right now, clamoring for the old days where it took a year or so to level to endgame), and FFXIV just can't accommodate that. I'd expect a lot of resentful derision at the game's casual elements (a la "it breaks my immersion") and not much support let alone permanent converts.

Which leaves Final Fantasy fans and former FFXI players who are looking for a more casual pace. I think you'll find, if not wholehearted acceptance, that they'll tolerate what few flaws that irk them (even while posting a thousand complaints on the Lodestone--they are Final Fantasy fans after all). I think if a lot of Final Fantasy fans who passed on FFXI but would still consider a casual FF MMO were to show up, FFXIV could be a big success. More likely, however, is that it will draw upon a modest crowd that will earn SE a profit someday, though probably not as quickly as FFXI did. And that will be enough. Smiley: nod
#7 Feb 27 2013 at 5:31 AM Rating: Good
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ARR has everything to not make it boring for an average FF player. In addition, ARR has everything no other MMO can replace for an average FF player.

Further, an average FF player may not have been there, done that in regards to MMO's. Especially on the console platform. This is a huge advantage. Suddenly borrowing aspects from other MMO's is not a disadvantage, quite the opposite.

There is simply no question about the fact that the FF demographic holds significantly more potential as a playerbase in comparison to the MMO demographic. And as explained above SE has taken the necessary steps to penetrate that demographic. Their challenge lies in marketing.

A small percentage of the FF demographic will stick around. However, a small percentage of what, 20 million plus people around the world? The game will sit comfortably on the silver throne for years to come with only <10% of that.

Edit: excellent post, Xoie.

Edited, Feb 27th 2013 2:34pm by Hyanmen

Edited, Feb 27th 2013 2:36pm by Hyanmen
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#8 Feb 27 2013 at 5:49 AM Rating: Good
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I don't think it's impossible for it to be a success, but to keep things in perspective, they're going to need at least 200k subscribers to be even possibly, maybe, sort of successful, and within two or three months of the first release, they were estimated to have about 12,000 subscribers. That's a lot of burned fans, many of whom were already disappointed after XI, then XII, then XIII. These are people who are going to have to be courted hard to come back, and they'll settle for nothing less than very strong word of mouth praise. It's going to be even harder to get them in the door for the relaunch than it was for the initial launch.

When you figure that less than 700k boxes even sold (and those aren't necessarily players), and take for instance the figure from WoW, maybe 30% of players who try the game out will stick around, you're looking at a strong possibility of hitting barely 200k subs. For most triple-A MMOs, that's considered a failure. And if they don't have a certain measure of success right out of the gate, then they'll be pegged a failure yet again.

I'm rooting for FFXIV as much as the next guy, don't get me wrong. But they are the definition of the underdog right now. They make David v. Goliath look like a fair fight. There is great potential for legendary failure, here, no matter how hard they want to win. Sometimes wanting it just isn't enough.
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Hyrist wrote:
Ok, now we're going to get slash fiction of Wint x Kachi somehere... rule 34 and all...

Never confuse your inference as the listener for an implication of the speaker.

Good games are subjective like good food is subjective. You're not going to seriously tell me that there's not a psychological basis for why pizza is great and lutefisk is revolting. The thing about subjectivity is that, as subjects go, humans actually have a great deal in common.
#9 Feb 27 2013 at 5:53 AM Rating: Decent
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ARR has everything to not make it boring for an average FF player. In addition, ARR has everything no other MMO can replace for an average FF player.

Further, an average FF player may not have been there, done that in regards to MMO's. Especially on the console platform. This is a huge advantage. Suddenly borrowing aspects from other MMO's is not a disadvantage, quite the opposite.


That's quite a series of assumptions you have there. The majority of FF fans have already whetted their tongues on an MMO-- if not FFXI, some other game. The novelty is not in any way guaranteed to be there. As for not being boring, that's not something you can predict, even if you've been playing it in beta. Whether or not the game is boring depends too heavily on the way challenge scales throughout the game and the incentive structures it uses. Those won't be seen until endgame, and my guess is that even if FF provides a perfectly defensible early-mid game experience, it will still be lucky to retain 25% of the people who come back to give it a shot.
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Hyrist wrote:
Ok, now we're going to get slash fiction of Wint x Kachi somehere... rule 34 and all...

Never confuse your inference as the listener for an implication of the speaker.

Good games are subjective like good food is subjective. You're not going to seriously tell me that there's not a psychological basis for why pizza is great and lutefisk is revolting. The thing about subjectivity is that, as subjects go, humans actually have a great deal in common.
#10 Feb 27 2013 at 7:16 AM Rating: Decent
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Nothing without basis. The OP has all the reasons to believe what I described in the first paragraph to be the case.

It is not boring because the crucial elements that players have always praised in ff games are all there.
#11 Feb 27 2013 at 7:30 AM Rating: Decent
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At best, you would have an idea of what playing the game is like for a couple of weeks, so yeah, it's entirely without basis. Until you know the longevity that the gameplay offers (as a function of novelty and balance) and the integrity of the incentive structures (which are entirely unknown to all), you have no idea how successful the game will be after 2-4 months of release, which is the point at which it is most likely to start failing, if it survives the launch at all.

The alternative is that you're forming some kind of no true Scottsman fallacy, in which you're defining a FF fan as someone who likes FFXIV, in which case, you've formed a perfect argument, albeit a meaningless semantic one.
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Hyrist wrote:
Ok, now we're going to get slash fiction of Wint x Kachi somehere... rule 34 and all...

Never confuse your inference as the listener for an implication of the speaker.

Good games are subjective like good food is subjective. You're not going to seriously tell me that there's not a psychological basis for why pizza is great and lutefisk is revolting. The thing about subjectivity is that, as subjects go, humans actually have a great deal in common.
#12 Feb 27 2013 at 7:32 AM Rating: Decent
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Or if your argument is that people will enjoy it for a few months, fine. But that doesn't support your argument that the game will succeed as a result.
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Hyrist wrote:
Ok, now we're going to get slash fiction of Wint x Kachi somehere... rule 34 and all...

Never confuse your inference as the listener for an implication of the speaker.

Good games are subjective like good food is subjective. You're not going to seriously tell me that there's not a psychological basis for why pizza is great and lutefisk is revolting. The thing about subjectivity is that, as subjects go, humans actually have a great deal in common.
#13 Feb 27 2013 at 10:55 AM Rating: Good
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Very insightful Hyanmen, rate up.
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#14 Feb 27 2013 at 12:02 PM Rating: Excellent
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The FFXI crowd who are still into FFXI also aren't likely to switch, but for the very opposite reason: there's altogether too much innovation compared to FFXI. They'll be hoping for something where everything about the game is hardcore (maybe even more than FFXI is right now, clamoring for the old days where it took a year or so to level to endgame), and FFXIV just can't accommodate that. I'd expect a lot of resentful derision at the game's casual elements (a la "it breaks my immersion") and not much support let alone permanent converts.


On the innovation I'd somewhat agree, but for different reasons. I'm going to give ARR a really fair shake, because Yoshi-P has put his heart and soul into this rebuild and frankly, he deserves that much from me and others, but it's going to hinge more on how FFXI-ish the gameplay is rather than whether they go TOAH vs Abyssea. I just want to walk into the world and feel like I'm back in Final Fantasy.

I'll admit though that I looked at their webpage and the information on jobs, and got "that feeling" again looking at Dragoon. That's what I'm talking about, and what was missing when I first ventured out into Eorzea and found that equipping a lance didn't make my character a dragoon, it made her a generic hume-like shadow of the former Torrence and Cerulean, longing for a return to her days of glory.

That's the biggest thing that XIV needs to recapture - our hearts. It's easy to put an NM on a lottery pop with a 24 hour timer and give it a .001% chance to drop a sidegrade. What's hard is capturing the magic that leads to the feeling that going after that drop is worth investing the time, because we are genuinely in love with our characters and the world they live in.

Edited, Feb 27th 2013 1:03pm by Torrence
#15 Feb 27 2013 at 12:09 PM Rating: Good
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It also shows that FFXIV is giving a FFIX-like nostalgic throwback at the series. After FFXIII killing off a lot of beloved FF-traditions, I welcome this wholeheartedly.

Even if it's an average MMO compared to the rivals, I'm expecting this to be a great Final Fantasy game in itself.
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#16 Feb 27 2013 at 12:39 PM Rating: Decent
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Torrence wrote:
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The FFXI crowd who are still into FFXI also aren't likely to switch, but for the very opposite reason: there's altogether too much innovation compared to FFXI. They'll be hoping for something where everything about the game is hardcore (maybe even more than FFXI is right now, clamoring for the old days where it took a year or so to level to endgame), and FFXIV just can't accommodate that. I'd expect a lot of resentful derision at the game's casual elements (a la "it breaks my immersion") and not much support let alone permanent converts.


On the innovation I'd somewhat agree, but for different reasons. I'm going to give ARR a really fair shake, because Yoshi-P has put his heart and soul into this rebuild and frankly, he deserves that much from me and others, but it's going to hinge more on how FFXI-ish the gameplay is rather than whether they go TOAH vs Abyssea. I just want to walk into the world and feel like I'm back in Final Fantasy.

I'll admit though that I looked at their webpage and the information on jobs, and got "that feeling" again looking at Dragoon. That's what I'm talking about, and what was missing when I first ventured out into Eorzea and found that equipping a lance didn't make my character a dragoon, it made her a generic hume-like shadow of the former Torrence and Cerulean, longing for a return to her days of glory.

That's the biggest thing that XIV needs to recapture - our hearts. It's easy to put an NM on a lottery pop with a 24 hour timer and give it a .001% chance to drop a sidegrade. What's hard is capturing the magic that leads to the feeling that going after that drop is worth investing the time, because we are genuinely in love with our characters and the world they live in.

Edited, Feb 27th 2013 1:03pm by Torrence


Really good points... Funny thing is when FFXIV first launched a ton of my friends left FFXI for FFXIV, They all came back. You what though?. Most of my friends play on the xbox so they bought pc to play it. Everyone was so excited about the game. I decided to wait till the xbox version came out.They were so burned they wont go back right now. This game will have to really be good for them to go back.


FFXI has become pretty easy in some aspects too... You can level from 0 to 99 in less than a week. It is not the game of old.

Also I dont think SE wants people leaving FFXI ..It is still profitable.


Edited, Feb 27th 2013 1:54pm by Nashred
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#17 Feb 27 2013 at 1:00 PM Rating: Decent
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Kachi wrote:
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What does ARR not have that single player FF games have?


Let me flip that on you. It's not what ARR doesn't have that other FF games have, it's one thing that it DOES have that other FF games don't:

The expectation that you'll play it for more than 50-100 hours, and plenty of filler and timesinks watering it down to help ensure that you do.


The last 3 Final Fantasies took over 70 hours to complete on average...
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#18 Feb 27 2013 at 1:06 PM Rating: Excellent
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Yoshida has repeatedly stated that XIV will draw upon many previous editions of the series. What this means to me is that, along with everything the OP said, this game will have the ability to revive old content like Magitek. I'm guessing that fans of Final Fantasy all over the world will at least look in on the game to see these elements modernized and many of them will think hard about whether or not they can resist the urge to play. It's almost like a living anthology of Final Fantasy lore. Heck by the end of XIV we may very well have our own submarines, flying black chocobos or even FAT chocobos for storage.
#19 Feb 27 2013 at 1:15 PM Rating: Good
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My personal opinion is the game is what you make of it. Going in with a negative view on it will not help in you liking it. I might be the only person in the world that thought 1.0 wasn't THAT bad. I mean it was ok and there was definitely areas for improvement but I think I could have dealt with it, but hey maybe my standards are low lol! One thing I did learn was constant reading of how bad a game is will start making you believe it. I try to stay clear of the negativity and come up with my own opinion when the time comes.

I'm personally excited for 2.0, if I felt 1.0 was ok then I'm sure 2.0 will be great!

Edited, Feb 27th 2013 11:15am by Veagan
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#20 Feb 27 2013 at 1:30 PM Rating: Excellent
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DanforthWright wrote:
Yoshida has repeatedly stated that XIV will draw upon many previous editions of the series. What this means to me is that, along with everything the OP said, this game will have the ability to revive old content like Magitek. I'm guessing that fans of Final Fantasy all over the world will at least look in on the game to see these elements modernized and many of them will think hard about whether or not they can resist the urge to play. It's almost like a living anthology of Final Fantasy lore. Heck by the end of XIV we may very well have our own submarines, flying black chocobos or even FAT chocobos for storage.


If this had been the initial release, maybe. That's likely the reason that most folks bought XIV, and those same reasons aren't going to be what draws people into the game this time. Yoshi-P has a lot more to answer for.

That's why I agree with the OP to a point in regards to seeing the forest for the trees - but you can't divorce the game from mmo scrutiny and expect that everyone will just "get" and appreciate what YoshiP is trying to accomplish here. That's like divorcing from the reality that despite having craptacular graphics, what is largely considered an abyssmal and obnoxious general community, and other games with really solid and awesome concepts (Rift, TSW, not to mention XI itself) as competition, WoW is still on top. Why? It does mmo well.

Quote:
There is no reason for the game to not appeal to all FF fans, once they realize that the stigma of MMO is largely unwarranted. This is a Final Fantasy game.


In particular, this is what I disagree with. The stigma isn't that it's an mmo for this particular game. The stigma is that it did mmo AND Final Fantasy so badly the first time around, people need a super good reason to give it another chance. The Final Fantasy name doesn't garner the same respect it once did, so however strongly you personally may feel about what's in the name, it has to do mmo and do it extremely well to succeed this time around. Otherwise it might as well just be offline.
#21 Feb 27 2013 at 3:01 PM Rating: Decent
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I think we need a editorial along the same tone of Hyanmen's post.

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#22 Feb 27 2013 at 3:13 PM Rating: Decent
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I think the most telling and interesting opinions on ARR come from those who didn't play 1.0. They are judging ARR as a totally independent game which is what SE wants.

... so far, those people have posted lukewarm opinions. Not the worst game they've ever played, but not something they would pay for when there are similar options for free.

This is why I think the FFXIV:ARR community is mostly going to be the people who were already subscribing to FFXIV in 2012.

and no I think the last thing ZAM should do is post an editorial saying "ARR will succeed", they already only look slightly less biased than that guy at Massively.

Edited, Feb 27th 2013 4:14pm by Poubelle
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#23Louiscool, Posted: Feb 27 2013 at 3:16 PM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post) And there goes the NDA again.
#24 Feb 27 2013 at 3:18 PM Rating: Decent
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Uh, there was a press event for the game. Not sure but I think ZAM even attended.

Edited, Feb 27th 2013 4:18pm by Poubelle
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#25 Feb 27 2013 at 3:22 PM Rating: Good
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Louiscool wrote:
Poubelle wrote:
I think the most telling and interesting opinions on ARR come from those who didn't play 1.0. They are judging ARR as a totally independent game which is what SE wants.

... so far, those people have posted lukewarm opinions. Not the worst game they've ever played, but not something they would pay for when there are similar options for free.

This is why I think the FFXIV:ARR community is mostly going to be the people who were already subscribing to FFXIV in 2012.

and no I think the last thing ZAM should do is post an editorial saying "ARR will succeed", they already only look slightly less biased than that guy at Massively.

Edited, Feb 27th 2013 4:14pm by Poubelle


And there goes the NDA again.


No. Nothing in the NDA was broken as those "Luke warm opinions" came from those who attended the Media Tour which, as stated by SE, were allowed to release information all in one go.

Let's face it:

View FFXIV ARR as a 1.0 player, you're drooling over it because of how improved it is over 1.0.

View FFXIV ARR as a gamer who've been around the MMO blocked numerous time, you're asking yourself: "What is new and unique about ARR? Why should I play it? What will keep me playing it?" Some comments also talk about how ARR is finally a standard MMORPG, which is SE's goal. However, do we really forget how many MMOs have come and gone in very quick successions the past few years?


#26 Feb 27 2013 at 3:40 PM Rating: Good
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I played FFXI at 3 different times over the first few years, each time starting over and making it to about lev45 before getting distracted by another mmo shiny but it was and still is my favorite mmo even though I never made it to end game (I like to play slow and enjoy the trip and never had very good luck with ls's, always seemed to find the ones with too many children lol). I like the dificulty and I was starting to like FFXIV 1.0 but there was soo much negativeness going around I couldn't stand it no moars. I left and figured if they keep fixing and updating it eventually the complainers would leave and I'd start playin again, but alas the end came. The last few months I've been checkin out info about ARR through email links I got and now I'm getting very excited again! I have tried almost all of the new mmo's that have come out the last couple of years and much like most people, I play for 2 or 3 months and realize it's just the same crap over and over or there just isn't any substance to it and I drop it. I can't wait for ARR, I will be playing slow and savoring every single minute because I know from past FF games that it will be the best game available to play at this time in space.
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