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#177 Mar 08 2013 at 10:04 AM Rating: Good
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Wint wrote:
Now everyone wants Arise Smiley: tongue


And only one out of every ten white mages actually has it since it costs as much as Raise III did seven years ago.
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#178 Mar 08 2013 at 10:24 AM Rating: Excellent
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Eh, down to 2.5 million on Asura at least, that's not undoable.
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#179 Mar 08 2013 at 10:27 AM Rating: Excellent
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Wint wrote:
Eh, down to 2.5 million on Asura at least, that's not undoable.


Aaaaaanndd now I remember why I don't miss buying spell scrolls...
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#180 Mar 08 2013 at 10:36 AM Rating: Excellent
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Louiscool wrote:
Wint wrote:
Eh, down to 2.5 million on Asura at least, that's not undoable.


Aaaaaanndd now I remember why I don't miss buying spell scrolls...


The first few sold for around 16 million I think.
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#181 Mar 08 2013 at 10:39 AM Rating: Decent
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Wouldn't it be nice if it were just a reward for completing a challenging piece of content?
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Ok, now we're going to get slash fiction of Wint x Kachi somehere... rule 34 and all...

Never confuse your inference as the listener for an implication of the speaker.

Good games are subjective like good food is subjective. You're not going to seriously tell me that there's not a psychological basis for why pizza is great and lutefisk is revolting. The thing about subjectivity is that, as subjects go, humans actually have a great deal in common.
#182 Mar 08 2013 at 10:47 AM Rating: Excellent
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Kachi wrote:
Wouldn't it be nice if it were just a reward for completing a challenging piece of content?


It was. Beat this guy.
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#183 Mar 08 2013 at 10:59 AM Rating: Good
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Nonono. According to that link, Arise has about a 7% drop rate, so statistically, a player has to beat him FOURTEEN times to be rewarded with the Arise scroll.

Oh, and silly me, that's not accounting for all the other people who want the scroll or the money it's worth.

Edited, Mar 8th 2013 9:01am by Kachi
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Hyrist wrote:
Ok, now we're going to get slash fiction of Wint x Kachi somehere... rule 34 and all...

Never confuse your inference as the listener for an implication of the speaker.

Good games are subjective like good food is subjective. You're not going to seriously tell me that there's not a psychological basis for why pizza is great and lutefisk is revolting. The thing about subjectivity is that, as subjects go, humans actually have a great deal in common.
#184 Mar 08 2013 at 11:24 AM Rating: Good
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It was. Beat this guy.

Urgh. That's exactly why I would never, never, never-ever play FFXI again.
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#185 Mar 08 2013 at 11:40 AM Rating: Excellent
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Kachi wrote:
Nonono. According to that link, Arise has about a 7% drop rate, so statistically, a player has to beat him FOURTEEN times to be rewarded with the Arise scroll.

Oh, and silly me, that's not accounting for all the other people who want the scroll or the money it's worth.

Edited, Mar 8th 2013 9:01am by Kachi


You're an optimist at 14 times. Either way, you don't technically have to pay for it. I'm not defending the system, but your original comment was misleading.
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#186 Mar 08 2013 at 12:03 PM Rating: Good
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Wint wrote:
Kachi wrote:
Nonono. According to that link, Arise has about a 7% drop rate, so statistically, a player has to beat him FOURTEEN times to be rewarded with the Arise scroll.

Oh, and silly me, that's not accounting for all the other people who want the scroll or the money it's worth.

Edited, Mar 8th 2013 9:01am by Kachi


You're an optimist at 14 times. Either way, you don't technically have to pay for it. I'm not defending the system, but your original comment was misleading.


Yeah 14 times.. .that drop rate is worse than Okotes and I fought that nm over 150 times with nothing to show for it...

But wow that spell looks awesome.. and Meteor!? What oh what have I missed.....

I enjoy that spells like these aren't a "right," and require work, but I vastly prefer things like The White Ravens, in 14, awarded for beating super hard content and made rare and important by that, not by your persistence and endurance to defeat it over and over.

Edited, Mar 8th 2013 1:03pm by Louiscool
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#187 Mar 08 2013 at 3:52 PM Rating: Excellent
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I enjoy that spells like these aren't a "right," and require work, but I vastly prefer things like The White Ravens, in 14, awarded for beating super hard content and made rare and important by that, not by your persistence and endurance to defeat it over and over.


There just needs to be a bit more of a middle ground.

But yeah, I also like having items/spells/etc. that are so hard to get, that not everyone will be able to get it. And I'm not one of those players who gets those kinds of drops! I'm pretty rank-and-file, in terms of FFXI players.

Those rare items help add a sense of excitement to the game. Just the fact that we're talking about this awesome spell with a horrible drop rate shows the impact of this kind of content. If the spell was significantly easier to get, we wouldn't even care enough to talk about it. It wouldn't be special.

Hmmm...

Maybe that's my problem with people throwing around the word "fun" so much. Perhaps the word they should be using is "special."

Fun can be special. Fun can also be really stupid.

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#188 Mar 08 2013 at 6:26 PM Rating: Decent
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Kachi wrote:
Wouldn't it be nice if it were just a reward for completing a challenging piece of content?


Kachi wrote:
Nonono. According to that link, Arise has about a 7% drop rate, so statistically, a player has to beat him FOURTEEN times to be rewarded with the Arise scroll.

Oh, and silly me, that's not accounting for all the other people who want the scroll or the money it's worth.

Edited, Mar 8th 2013 9:01am by Kachi


Statistically, there's a 93% chance you won't get the drop with each attempt (100% - 7% = 93%). After 10 attempts there's only a 48% chance you still won't have it (.93 ^10). Which means over half the time you'll get it within 10 attempts.
#189 Mar 08 2013 at 6:30 PM Rating: Excellent
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Wint wrote:
Kachi wrote:
Nonono. According to that link, Arise has about a 7% drop rate, so statistically, a player has to beat him FOURTEEN times to be rewarded with the Arise scroll.

Oh, and silly me, that's not accounting for all the other people who want the scroll or the money it's worth.

Edited, Mar 8th 2013 9:01am by Kachi


You're an optimist at 14 times. Either way, you don't technically have to pay for it. I'm not defending the system, but your original comment was misleading.


I can see where it was misleading, but I think I made my point with record brevity. There's a huge difference between taking down a difficult monster, and having to do it 14 times (statistically) to get ONE for the group. One is a test of skill. The other is a test of perseverance and dumb luck.

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Those rare items help add a sense of excitement to the game. Just the fact that we're talking about this awesome spell with a horrible drop rate shows the impact of this kind of content. If the spell was significantly easier to get, we wouldn't even care enough to talk about it. It wouldn't be special.


Let me respond to that with an emphatic: ************************ Text[/u] that. Seriously, **** that.

Yeah, it adds to the excitement, the way that the potential payoff from gambling compels many players to keep losing all of their money for the slim chance at striking rich. A game mechanic that generates a single high payoff at the tradeoff of a thousand times greater collective disappointment and frustration is simply bad. Epic bad. Bad enough to talk about. Honestly, it even makes me slightly mad that you would suggest this. You gave me FEELINGS. On the internet. That's how strongly I disagree with this.

If you want a drop to be special, make it special because it reflects a special, impressive degree of skill. If you can't do that, then don't fall back on statistics to do your dirty work. You can generate even greater, more meaningful excitement by making it very difficult to kill the monster, rather than turning a dragon into a slot machine.
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Hyrist wrote:
Ok, now we're going to get slash fiction of Wint x Kachi somehere... rule 34 and all...

Never confuse your inference as the listener for an implication of the speaker.

Good games are subjective like good food is subjective. You're not going to seriously tell me that there's not a psychological basis for why pizza is great and lutefisk is revolting. The thing about subjectivity is that, as subjects go, humans actually have a great deal in common.
#190 Mar 08 2013 at 6:42 PM Rating: Excellent
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In my opinion, Arise is a perfect example of where it's ok to have insane drop rates. The spell is not required, it's something that's nice to have. You don't NEED it to get invited to parties, or do things with PUGs. Yes it's expensive, yes it sucks to get, but once you have it you appreciate it.

I see what you're saying, but I think you're wrong with this one.
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#191 Mar 08 2013 at 6:47 PM Rating: Decent
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Xoie wrote:
Kachi wrote:
Wouldn't it be nice if it were just a reward for completing a challenging piece of content?


Kachi wrote:
Nonono. According to that link, Arise has about a 7% drop rate, so statistically, a player has to beat him FOURTEEN times to be rewarded with the Arise scroll.

Oh, and silly me, that's not accounting for all the other people who want the scroll or the money it's worth.

Edited, Mar 8th 2013 9:01am by Kachi


Statistically, there's a 93% chance you won't get the drop with each attempt (100% - 7% = 93%). After 10 attempts there's only a 48% chance you still won't have it (.93 ^10). Which means over half the time you'll get it within 10 attempts.


I hate to be a stickler here, but... After 1,000 attempts there's still a 93% chance you won't have it. Your % chance doesn't change with each attempt, which makes it much, much worse....
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#192 Mar 08 2013 at 6:50 PM Rating: Excellent
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Wint wrote:
In my opinion, Arise is a perfect example of where it's ok to have insane drop rates. The spell is not required, it's something that's nice to have. You don't NEED it to get invited to parties, or do things with PUGs. Yes it's expensive, yes it sucks to get, but once you have it you appreciate it.

I see what you're saying, but I think you're wrong with this one.


In most any game, you're going to eventually be working towards luxury items. There has to be a diminishing return on incentives to maintain the balance of game progression. So you don't NEED most of the items, but the entire point of such items is for players to set goals to achieve them. That's what carrots are for. When you devalue those goals by making them reliant on such "insanity" which "sucks," it's not adding to the game.

It's bad design, plain and simple. ****, little children will tell you that it's *********
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Hyrist wrote:
Ok, now we're going to get slash fiction of Wint x Kachi somehere... rule 34 and all...

Never confuse your inference as the listener for an implication of the speaker.

Good games are subjective like good food is subjective. You're not going to seriously tell me that there's not a psychological basis for why pizza is great and lutefisk is revolting. The thing about subjectivity is that, as subjects go, humans actually have a great deal in common.
#193 Mar 08 2013 at 6:55 PM Rating: Decent
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Louiscool wrote:
Xoie wrote:
Kachi wrote:
Wouldn't it be nice if it were just a reward for completing a challenging piece of content?


Kachi wrote:
Nonono. According to that link, Arise has about a 7% drop rate, so statistically, a player has to beat him FOURTEEN times to be rewarded with the Arise scroll.

Oh, and silly me, that's not accounting for all the other people who want the scroll or the money it's worth.

Edited, Mar 8th 2013 9:01am by Kachi


Statistically, there's a 93% chance you won't get the drop with each attempt (100% - 7% = 93%). After 10 attempts there's only a 48% chance you still won't have it (.93 ^10). Which means over half the time you'll get it within 10 attempts.


I hate to be a stickler here, but... After 1,000 attempts there's still a 93% chance you won't have it. Your % chance doesn't change with each attempt, which makes it much, much worse....


I'm speaking in averages here, so there's no need to break out the serious math. One should drop after roughly each 14 kills. For every person who gets it on their first kill, someone else is going to get it on their 28th kill. Again, ignoring the fact that it's actually dropping to the shared pool. You're just as likely to get unlucky as you are to get lucky.
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Hyrist wrote:
Ok, now we're going to get slash fiction of Wint x Kachi somehere... rule 34 and all...

Never confuse your inference as the listener for an implication of the speaker.

Good games are subjective like good food is subjective. You're not going to seriously tell me that there's not a psychological basis for why pizza is great and lutefisk is revolting. The thing about subjectivity is that, as subjects go, humans actually have a great deal in common.
#194 Mar 08 2013 at 7:02 PM Rating: Decent
I`ve been waiting for for this game to come on ps3 since i quit ffxi in 2009, me personally think it will suceed with good story, good cutscenes and beautiful music.
And to add i really loved the teamwork aspects in the game, which i hope they balance out in AAR.

Though im pretty bias cause I`ve never played any other mmo`s except ffxi, cause i think thats the only mmo with good story in it, but what do i know:P
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#195 Mar 08 2013 at 8:15 PM Rating: Excellent
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Louiscool wrote:
Xoie wrote:
Kachi wrote:
Wouldn't it be nice if it were just a reward for completing a challenging piece of content?


Kachi wrote:
Nonono. According to that link, Arise has about a 7% drop rate, so statistically, a player has to beat him FOURTEEN times to be rewarded with the Arise scroll.

Oh, and silly me, that's not accounting for all the other people who want the scroll or the money it's worth.

Edited, Mar 8th 2013 9:01am by Kachi


Statistically, there's a 93% chance you won't get the drop with each attempt (100% - 7% = 93%). After 10 attempts there's only a 48% chance you still won't have it (.93 ^10). Which means over half the time you'll get it within 10 attempts.


I hate to be a stickler here, but... After 1,000 attempts there's still a 93% chance you won't have it. Your % chance doesn't change with each attempt, which makes it much, much worse....


Each attempt has a 93% chance of failure just before you make it, that's true.

But you can calculate the odds if rolling two sixes in a row before you actually try (1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36). That's all I'm doing with the odds you'll get an arise drop. It averages to 10 attempts (before you actually start) and I showed how I calculated it. It doesn't guarantee it's always going to be that many, and your odds don't improve if you fail enough times, but that should be about the average number of attempts if you do it long enough.

Kachi is looking at this from the point of view that he will do the event 100 times no matter what, and collect 7 arise scrolls. I'm looking at it from the point of view that I want 1 arise scroll and I will stop as soon as I have one. The odds a bit better because I'm not rounding out the expected failures that would occur from doing a fixed number of attempts.

Edited, Mar 8th 2013 9:42pm by Xoie
#196 Mar 08 2013 at 8:48 PM Rating: Decent
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Kachi wrote:
Wint wrote:
In my opinion, Arise is a perfect example of where it's ok to have insane drop rates. The spell is not required, it's something that's nice to have. You don't NEED it to get invited to parties, or do things with PUGs. Yes it's expensive, yes it sucks to get, but once you have it you appreciate it.

I see what you're saying, but I think you're wrong with this one.


In most any game, you're going to eventually be working towards luxury items. There has to be a diminishing return on incentives to maintain the balance of game progression. So you don't NEED most of the items, but the entire point of such items is for players to set goals to achieve them. That's what carrots are for. When you devalue those goals by making them reliant on such "insanity" which "sucks," it's not adding to the game.

It's bad design, plain and simple. ****, little children will tell you that it's bullsh*t.


Well, you should look at that boss as something they want you to fight over and over. The drop pool looks amazing, so in theory you have an LS fighting it for gil, or drops if you need it, use points, etc.

If this was 100% drop, it would be fought 14 times and be done with, right? How do you suggest motivating replay within FFXI's current style? I don't think anyone likes RNG, including 1.0'ers, with the terribblee terrible drop rates of primal weapons and relic items...
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#197 Mar 08 2013 at 8:56 PM Rating: Good
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Xoie wrote:
Louiscool wrote:
Xoie wrote:
Kachi wrote:
Wouldn't it be nice if it were just a reward for completing a challenging piece of content?


Kachi wrote:
Nonono. According to that link, Arise has about a 7% drop rate, so statistically, a player has to beat him FOURTEEN times to be rewarded with the Arise scroll.

Oh, and silly me, that's not accounting for all the other people who want the scroll or the money it's worth.

Edited, Mar 8th 2013 9:01am by Kachi


Statistically, there's a 93% chance you won't get the drop with each attempt (100% - 7% = 93%). After 10 attempts there's only a 48% chance you still won't have it (.93 ^10). Which means over half the time you'll get it within 10 attempts.


I hate to be a stickler here, but... After 1,000 attempts there's still a 93% chance you won't have it. Your % chance doesn't change with each attempt, which makes it much, much worse....


Each attempt has a 93% chance of failure just before you make it, that's true.

But you can calculate the odds if rolling two sixes in a row before you actually try (1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36). That's all I'm doing with the odds you'll get an arise drop. It averages to 10 attempts (before you actually start) and I showed how I calculated it. It doesn't guarantee it's always going to be that many, and your odds don't improve if you fail enough times, but that should be about the average number of attempts if you do it long enough.

Kachi is looking at this from the point of view that he will do the event 100 times no matter what, and collect 7 arise scrolls. I'm looking at it from the point of view that I want 1 arise scroll and I will stop as soon as I have one. The odds a bit better because I'm not rounding out the expected failures that would occur from doing a fixed number of attempts.

Edited, Mar 8th 2013 9:42pm by Xoie


I know what you're saying, and it's a common mistake made by MMO players and Gambling addicts alike:

Law of Large Numbers: As the sample size increases the average of the actual outcomes will more closely approximate the mathematical probability. (In this case, 7%)

The law of large numbers is a useful way to understand betting outcomes. A coin on average will come up heads 50% of the time. It could nonetheless come up heads 100% of the time or 0% of the time. In a short trial, heads may easily come up on every flip. The larger the number of flips, however, the closer the percentage will be to 50%.

The problem with the law of averages, as it is often understood, is that people assume that if something has not happened it is due to happen. For example, a person who gambles might expect that if heads have come up 10 times in a row, the next flip is more likely to be tails because the flips have to average out to 50%.

Many people believe that deviations from chance are corrected by subsequent events and refer to the law of averages in support of their belief. Many people believe that after 5 heads in a row the next flip is more likely to be tails.

The law of large numbers, on the other hand, asserts only that the average converges towards the true mean as more observations are added. The average is not somehow corrected to ensure it reflects the expected average. The key difference is in the expectation. After a streak of 10 heads in a row, the law of averages would predict that more tails should come up so that the average is balanced out. The law of large numbers only predicts that after a sufficiently large number of trials, the streak of 10 heads in a row will be statistically irrelevant and the average will be close to the mathematical probability.

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#198 Mar 09 2013 at 3:18 AM Rating: Excellent
Kachin, I often agree with what you say lately, but do you realize you are trying to tell a group of mmo players that what we want isn't really what we want?

Also, I dot like your constant comparisons to gambling. For the most part, I hate gambling. In ffxi, I have largely stayed away from going after luxury items with silly drop rates. However, some hardcore players really enjoy pursuing those elite goals. Why should thy be deprived of that, especially when there are always ways for more casual players to also get cool gear sets through other means?

And gambling involved wasting real money. Playing a game is about relaxing during free time. I understand what you are trying to get at, but gamers =/= gamblers.

Edited, Mar 9th 2013 1:22am by Thayos
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#199 Mar 09 2013 at 10:57 AM Rating: Decent
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Louiscool is correct on the statistical question. I'm not talking about one player getting the drop, either, but any given player. As I said, you basically have the same odds of getting lucky (less than 14 attempts) as you do being unlucky (more than 14 attempts). Statistically, they should center around a mean of 14 attempts. Using the math of combinations and permutations isn't relevant to these sorts of statistical incidences.

Louiscool wrote:
Kachi wrote:
Wint wrote:
In my opinion, Arise is a perfect example of where it's ok to have insane drop rates. The spell is not required, it's something that's nice to have. You don't NEED it to get invited to parties, or do things with PUGs. Yes it's expensive, yes it sucks to get, but once you have it you appreciate it.

I see what you're saying, but I think you're wrong with this one.


In most any game, you're going to eventually be working towards luxury items. There has to be a diminishing return on incentives to maintain the balance of game progression. So you don't NEED most of the items, but the entire point of such items is for players to set goals to achieve them. That's what carrots are for. When you devalue those goals by making them reliant on such "insanity" which "sucks," it's not adding to the game.

It's bad design, plain and simple. ****, little children will tell you that it's bullsh*t.


Well, you should look at that boss as something they want you to fight over and over. The drop pool looks amazing, so in theory you have an LS fighting it for gil, or drops if you need it, use points, etc.

If this was 100% drop, it would be fought 14 times and be done with, right? How do you suggest motivating replay within FFXI's current style? I don't think anyone likes RNG, including 1.0'ers, with the terribblee terrible drop rates of primal weapons and relic items...


My suggestion is pretty simple: If you want to make the items rarer, make the fights more difficult. Make victory the rare thing, not the RNG's generosity. Replay should be something you do because you aren't bored by the battle yet, not because you didn't get what you needed the first ten times. Drop rates don't need to be quite 100%, but they shouldn't ever be less than 20%, and that's pushing it. And that also assumes that failure isn't significantly punished with large time penalties (massive XP loss or farming new pop items).

FFXI in particular has a **** ton of content that is simply wasted because they didn't provide any desirable rewards for completing the content-- fixing that is how they can ensure that they have sufficient playable content, and it's an easy fix. But replayability isn't an issue--they've got plenty of content that players haven't completed even though it's been right there in front of them for years.

Mind you, this suggestion only works to the degree that skill can be the primary factor of success. When "social builds" become the primary mechanic of success, the game is usually pretty broken no matter how you slice it. In that regard, FFXI is a pretty dicey game in general.
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Hyrist wrote:
Ok, now we're going to get slash fiction of Wint x Kachi somehere... rule 34 and all...

Never confuse your inference as the listener for an implication of the speaker.

Good games are subjective like good food is subjective. You're not going to seriously tell me that there's not a psychological basis for why pizza is great and lutefisk is revolting. The thing about subjectivity is that, as subjects go, humans actually have a great deal in common.
#200 Mar 09 2013 at 11:07 AM Rating: Good
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Thayos wrote:
Kachin, I often agree with what you say lately, but do you realize you are trying to tell a group of mmo players that what we want isn't really what we want?

Also, I dot like your constant comparisons to gambling. For the most part, I hate gambling. In ffxi, I have largely stayed away from going after luxury items with silly drop rates. However, some hardcore players really enjoy pursuing those elite goals. Why should thy be deprived of that, especially when there are always ways for more casual players to also get cool gear sets through other means?

And gambling involved wasting real money. Playing a game is about relaxing during free time. I understand what you are trying to get at, but gamers =/= gamblers.

Edited, Mar 9th 2013 1:22am by Thayos


No, I'm telling a group of players that the reasons that they think they enjoy something aren't the real reasons they enjoy it--at best. Moreover, I'm telling a group of players that what they want isn't what the vast majority of players enjoy. Some people enjoy rubbing scat all over their bodies while having ***. I'm not going to tell them that they don't enjoy it, just that if they're trying to turn it into a blockbuster entertainment business, they're in for a tough ride. I might also tell them that the reason they enjoy rubbing ***** on their body isn't because it's fun, but because they have deepseated psychological problems.

Elite goals are fine. A game should have elite goals. But those goals should reflect personal development in some way, not "time wasted." Can timesinks be sufficient and still engage players? Clearly. But they are virtually never the superior option.

And you'd be surprised at how similar gambling and these high-stakes gaming practices are, both psychologically and conceptually. A simple way to think of it is that time=money. While a gambler will risk money that they spent time at work to earn, a gamer will risk similar amounts of time for imaginary rewards. The behaviors are incredibly similar even if the implications differ. The reason I use gambling as a comparison is primarily due to the similarities in the reward processes, however. The rush that players get more resembles that of gambling than in a continuously rewarding recreational experience (flow states).
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Hyrist wrote:
Ok, now we're going to get slash fiction of Wint x Kachi somehere... rule 34 and all...

Never confuse your inference as the listener for an implication of the speaker.

Good games are subjective like good food is subjective. You're not going to seriously tell me that there's not a psychological basis for why pizza is great and lutefisk is revolting. The thing about subjectivity is that, as subjects go, humans actually have a great deal in common.
#201 Mar 09 2013 at 12:34 PM Rating: Excellent
Wasting money is only comparable to wasting time among people who don't need to worry about money. Most people need to worry about money.
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