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What if it does fail?Follow

#1 May 09 2013 at 7:43 AM Rating: Decent
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Im not saying that the game will fail or that i want it to at all, i just wanted to get that across before i got any further...

So what happens to SE if this game does fail? what sort of trouble will they be in market wise? How do you think they would bounce back? (maybe a glorified FF7 finally made?) Or could they bounce back at all? I've just been thinking about it and i cant really see it happening but the thought still remains there "what if?"

Edited, May 10th 2013 9:50am by Wint Lock Thread: Your wish is my command :)
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#2 May 09 2013 at 8:07 AM Rating: Decent
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That's like saying "What If" and asteroid is on a collision course with earth that will wipe out the entire population and no one knows about it yet.

If the game fails people will go else where for their MMO needs. The earth doesn't exist or hinge on FFxiv ARR being a success. Would it hurt them market wise probably in a small way yes but they are making this with their own money (no investors to pay back) so it wouldn't be to drastic.
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#3 May 09 2013 at 8:08 AM Rating: Default
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Then it fails and Square is in big trouble, enough of these threads.
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#4 May 09 2013 at 8:15 AM Rating: Good
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Pray that Versus XIII (or whatever the **** it's going to be called) saves them. If not, I don't see good things happening for the company. This new president specializes in economics. I'm curious to see what he'll end up doing fail or no fail.
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#5 May 09 2013 at 8:17 AM Rating: Decent
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If it fails, Square-Enix will likely stop doing future MMOs, XIV's team will probably be laid off or moved to Final Fantasy XI.

I hope they would keep Yoshi. Put him somewhere useful. His promotion to Corporate Executive is probably the best thing that happened to Square-Enix in the last decade.
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#6 May 09 2013 at 8:47 AM Rating: Excellent
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I don't think it's even possible.

Critically, yes it could fail. But after all the bs this game has been through, if they have subs, they will keep it running. There's too much pride involved here. So critically and financially it could fail but I don't see it being admitted. Closing the servers = admitting it.
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#7 May 09 2013 at 9:00 AM Rating: Decent
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If ARR failed SE would take a long look at the MMO market and decide if its worth investing in it again. I think they would move the Staff to FFXI and keep ARR up until they had to make it free to play and then until the population was so low it didn't matter if they closed it or not.

On a bigger picture, SE will lose some respect in the MMO fight, people will not pick up an SE MMO over another, at first glance, and SE will be forced to make their Single Player games much better. That would be a good thing but I don't want ARR to fail so I hope they realize the Single Player games are starting to suck too.

In the end, SE loses some potential dollars, they will fire some people, they wont hire a handful of interns, and they might have to cut back on Sushi Hour. SE has tons of other games and markets to tap into, not including the remake market. Overall, no lasting effect will come of it, if anything it would be a wake up call that fans wont except crap as a new game.
#8 May 09 2013 at 9:15 AM Rating: Excellent
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WFOAssassin wrote:
Overall, no lasting effect will come of it


If my math is correct converting yen to dollars, SE did 1.38 BILLION dollars in sales in fiscal 2012. Failure of ARR would be a setback, would kind of hurt and possibly cause some layoffs, but a company that large isn't going away just because an MMO failed. People buy their stuff like crazy, and thats not going to change.
#9 May 09 2013 at 9:40 AM Rating: Default
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SillyHawk wrote:
That's like saying "What If" and asteroid is on a collision course with earth that will wipe out the entire population and no one knows about it yet.


Yep, totally analogous. A WoW-inspired MMORPG failing a second time is about as likely as an undetectable asteroid destroying the planet.

That said, I agree that these threads are as pointless as they are tedious and numerous.
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#10 May 09 2013 at 9:47 AM Rating: Excellent
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First off, let's define "fail."

- Game is panned on release by critics again, and users return their unopened copies to stores like they did 1.0?
- Game fails to achieve widespread adoption from the beginning? (No one even buys it to begin with.)
- Game gets critical acclaim, but users get bored by the end of 30 day trial and no one starts paying for it?
- Game fails to meet SE's internal numbers? We could think it's doing great, but SE probably has some long term numbers they're eyeballing here.

Those are four completely different "fail" scenarios, although there will be some overlap.
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#11 May 09 2013 at 10:19 AM Rating: Excellent
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If subscriptions taper off to unsustainable levels, it'll go microtransaction and F2P. If that doesn't work content will taper off and they'll finish it up with a nice story line and we'll move on. Square will probably get out of the MMO business or change their payment model from there on out. Yoshida should get a promotion regardless. I wish he was taking Wada's place, but we need him here for the next 5 years.

The game will in all likelihood last at least 2-3 more years even in a bad scenario.
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#12 May 09 2013 at 10:43 AM Rating: Good
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benjjjamin wrote:
If subscriptions taper off to unsustainable levels, it'll go microtransaction and F2P. If that doesn't work content will taper off and they'll finish it up with a nice story line and we'll move on. Square will probably get out of the MMO business or change their payment model from there on out. Yoshida should get a promotion regardless. I wish he was taking Wada's place, but we need him here for the next 5 years.

The game will in all likelihood last at least 2-3 more years even in a bad scenario.


I would like to say that Se will never make this game micro-transaction. They've said hundreds of times, the model doesn't work with their vision and direction.

And I've said, just as many times, that SE knows the value of a long term commitment, given that FFXI has been their most profitable FF in the series, ith less than stellar numbers, but steady revenue.

If they have learned anything, it's that satisfying fewer customers for longer periods of time is the way to go.

Edited, May 9th 2013 12:45pm by Louiscool
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#13 May 09 2013 at 10:48 AM Rating: Good
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I don't think it will fail. Even if it doesn't do well they will push forward with it and have FFXI be the bread winner :)
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#14 May 09 2013 at 10:50 AM Rating: Decent
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Has there been any talk of when XI will be shutdown at all? its been running for some time and just a thought i had come across... i hope it never sees the end of its days but im sure it will ONE day... and was just wondering if anything has been mentioned as to if or when they will do that?

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#15 May 09 2013 at 11:07 AM Rating: Good
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It's probably safe to say that the game would most likely be sustainable if they had the same number of subscribers that they had at the end of 1.23. You'd most likely see long gaps in between patches though, and maybe a very nonchalant development team.

In the past, Yoshida has mentioned that SE is one of maybe two companies that finances their own MMOs, so their "failure threshold" isn't quite as low as something like SWTOR was, since they don't have to continually appease investors with monetary returns. It's why the F2P model is so much more attractive in those types of situations; third parties get their money back quicker, because the people who actually pay for microtransactions, pay lots move than they would compared to a subscription-based game.
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#16 May 09 2013 at 11:20 AM Rating: Default
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The game has a 70/30 chance of failing as of right now, if it does fail hopefully SE will stop wasting their time on the MMO market and start reconstructing their console RPG catalog, also next time they even consider a MMO, they might think really hard, about all the other IP they own, that they can base an MMO on.

Also is kind of hard to define failure on this title, specially when 1.0 failed and people still where on denial...Even when SE came out and said it was garbage, people still held it as the holy grail of MMO Smiley: lol
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#17 May 09 2013 at 11:22 AM Rating: Default
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TurboTom wrote:
It's probably safe to say that the game would most likely be sustainable if they had the same number of subscribers that they had at the end of 1.23. You'd most likely see long gaps in between patches though, and maybe a very nonchalant development team.

In the past, Yoshida has mentioned that SE is one of maybe two companies that finances their own MMOs, so their "failure threshold" isn't quite as low as something like SWTOR was, since they don't have to continually appease investors with monetary returns. It's why the F2P model is so much more attractive in those types of situations; third parties get their money back quicker, because the people who actually pay for microtransactions, pay lots move than they would compared to a subscription-based game.


That # is unsustainable on it's own (Never above 75K) and considering a polar opposite of 1.23, it will not have the same numbers.
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#18 May 09 2013 at 11:35 AM Rating: Good
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KaneKitty wrote:
SillyHawk wrote:
That's like saying "What If" and asteroid is on a collision course with earth that will wipe out the entire population and no one knows about it yet.


Yep, totally analogous. A WoW-inspired MMORPG failing a second time is about as likely as an undetectable asteroid destroying the planet.

That said, I agree that these threads are as pointless as they are tedious and numerous.


You do realize that an analogy doesn't have to be a perfect replica of what it's being compared to right? It's just comparing two similar things, in this case, two "what if" questions of different events with an unknown outcome. It's actually quite an adept analogy, if a bit exaggerated. Also, the initial game had NOTHING in common with WoW, so saying the WoW-inspired game failing twice implies it already failed as a WoW-inspired game, which couldn't be further from the truth. It failed as a shell of a game, which has now been pretty much rebuilt with inspiration from WoW and other mmos.

In my opinion, if it fails again SE will just wait until it becomes a hindrance, then turn it free to play and make a quick buck off a cash shop (probably filled with FF fanfare) before they just cancel it outright.
#19 May 09 2013 at 11:51 AM Rating: Excellent
After seeing the new expansion content of FFXI, I will laugh if ARR fizzles while FFXI remains the breadwinner.
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#20 May 09 2013 at 12:03 PM Rating: Decent
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I just can't see it happening with all that we've been exposed to and I've experienced so far in regards to ARR.
#21 May 09 2013 at 12:46 PM Rating: Decent
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SillyHawk wrote:
That's like saying "What If" and asteroid is on a collision course with earth that will wipe out the entire population and no one knows about it yet.

If the game fails people will go else where for their MMO needs. The earth doesn't exist or hinge on FFxiv ARR being a success. Would it hurt them market wise probably in a small way yes but they are making this with their own money (no investors to pay back) so it wouldn't be to drastic.


It's actually nothing like that at all.

He also didn't ask if earth's existence depends on FFXIV... he asked if SEs existence depends on it.

With that said, I think the results could be potentially fatal, but not to the series as a whole but instead to the hopes of SE making another MMO.
#22 May 09 2013 at 12:54 PM Rating: Excellent
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Catwho wrote:
First off, let's define "fail."

- Game is panned on release by critics again, and users return their unopened copies to stores like they did 1.0?
- Game fails to achieve widespread adoption from the beginning? (No one even buys it to begin with.)
- Game gets critical acclaim, but users get bored by the end of 30 day trial and no one starts paying for it?
- Game fails to meet SE's internal numbers? We could think it's doing great, but SE probably has some long term numbers they're eyeballing here.

Those are four completely different "fail" scenarios, although there will be some overlap.


Thank you Catwho for saying this. There's no concrete definition of failure here. Honestly there are many more than you listed. Star Wars The Old Republic can be considered a failure in many ways but regardless it's still a financial success. FFXIV will inevitably fail in some aspects and succeed in others. OP's question assumes a great deal and is honestly silly.
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#23 May 09 2013 at 1:04 PM Rating: Default
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Maybe we'll get a FFVII remake.

Edited, May 9th 2013 3:09pm by electromagnet83
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#24 May 09 2013 at 1:07 PM Rating: Decent
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SillyHawk wrote:
That's like saying "What If" and asteroid is on a collision course with earth that will wipe out the entire population and no one knows about it yet.

If the game fails people will go else where for their MMO needs. The earth doesn't exist or hinge on FFxiv ARR being a success. Would it hurt them market wise probably in a small way yes but they are making this with their own money (no investors to pay back) so it wouldn't be to drastic.


The OP never implied that the earth hinges on it, you're just being snarky and rude.
#25 May 09 2013 at 2:16 PM Rating: Decent
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The game kept 30-50k users being rebuilt from the ground up over two years. It is probably safe to say that there is at least 1-2 years worth of content to keep casuals busy. Even if the game was lackluster in awe but still a solid mmorpg in the fundamentals. This game can easily top 100k consistent subscribers, that would be enough to stay afloat. Maybe this game isn't as timesink ridden as FFXI. But I think it does have the fundamentals down and featuring enough quantity of content for new beginners.

The only way this game could fail in the most horrible way is to release buggy, laggy, and over complicated menu processes.

This game is not failing, and no, free to play is not admitting failure. Should that be their last ditch effort. Failing is shutdown or going into the red and never rising back. Total Failure is what happens when you give up.
#26 May 09 2013 at 2:39 PM Rating: Excellent
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Ostia wrote:
The game has a 70/30 chance of failing as of right now, if it does fail hopefully SE will stop wasting their time on the MMO market and start reconstructing their console RPG catalog, also next time they even consider a MMO, they might think really hard, about all the other IP they own, that they can base an MMO on.

Also is kind of hard to define failure on this title, specially when 1.0 failed and people still where on denial...Even when SE came out and said it was garbage, people still held it as the holy grail of MMO Smiley: lol


I'm not even stepping into this troll, I just want to acknowledge it, so you know that I know that we know. Ya' know?
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