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Stock Market Movements....A good signFollow

#1 Jun 16 2013 at 7:01 PM Rating: Excellent
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After the BETA weekend we have just have Square Enix Holdings Stock price lifted 7% in the first hour of trading this morning.

Whilst this might seem like a very boring point, share prices are generally based on future expectations of company performance (not entirely and if anyone wants to take me up on a debate on this perhaps this is not the best forum for it), and a lift of this order immediately after a weekend like we've just have is likely to be mostly due to optimism following the beta.

The markets think this game is going to generate some money for SE. They think it more today than they did on Friday :-)
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#2 Jun 16 2013 at 7:06 PM Rating: Excellent
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HallieXIV wrote:
After the BETA weekend we have just have Square Enix Holdings Stock price lifted 7% in the first hour of trading this morning.

Whilst this might seem like a very boring point, share prices are generally based on future expectations of company performance (not entirely and if anyone wants to take me up on a debate on this perhaps this is not the best forum for it), and a lift of this order immediately after a weekend like we've just have is likely to be mostly due to optimism following the beta.

The markets think this game is going to generate some money for SE. They think it more today than they did on Friday :-)


I bet it had something to do with the E3 video showing how PS4 shares its games, as well as the great E3 videos of FF14.
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#3 Jun 16 2013 at 7:16 PM Rating: Good
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If the stock market reacted that slowly I'd be a millionaire. I'm pretty sure people buy and sell in "real time"... In fact. I'm doubly sure. Any market reaction to E3 happened that day or in after hours trading.
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#4 Jun 16 2013 at 7:24 PM Rating: Decent
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After hours trading will be reflected at the opening of the markets after the weekend so technically, news not acted upon on Friday by close of markets could have had an impact but a 7% jump is significant and, in my opinion, likely to be due to a more positive outlook on MOnday compared with Friday.

Markets respond to news very quickly following price sensitive announcements. What is interesting with something like this is that the market is responding not to an announcement by SE (I checked) but some other indicator of anticipated change of fortune. I wonder if any brokers from big trading houses were in beta this weekend :-)
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#5 Jun 16 2013 at 7:32 PM Rating: Good
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This is funny to me. For real though, if the stock did go up over the weekend, by 7%, I would bet money it was because of the Beta. That makes me feel good, for sure. Cool info.
#6 Jun 16 2013 at 7:35 PM Rating: Excellent
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... In hind sight short selling Square Enix stock was a huge mistake.

:P
#7 Jun 16 2013 at 7:39 PM Rating: Good
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**** Pulazka, I didnt know Martha Stewart played FFXIV Smiley: laugh
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#8 Jun 16 2013 at 8:07 PM Rating: Decent
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Awww... I thought this was talking about the Market Wards!! lol
#9 Jun 16 2013 at 8:11 PM Rating: Good
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[********************** Pulazka, I didnt know Martha Stewart played FFXIV Smiley: laugh[/quote]

Martha Stewart ? Hahaha. More like Bernie Madoff xD
#10 Jun 16 2013 at 8:21 PM Rating: Good
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SirLuciousLeftfoot wrote:
Awww... I thought this was talking about the Market Wards!! lol


Posts relevant to FFXIV on an FFXIV forum - that's just crazy talk.

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#11Killua125, Posted: Jun 16 2013 at 8:50 PM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post) I'm gonna guess this is totally unrelated to XIV too. lol
#12 Jun 16 2013 at 9:05 PM Rating: Good
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Killua125 wrote:
I'm gonna guess this is totally unrelated to XIV too. lol


Killua - I would be extremely suprised if that was the case.

FIrst up, SE's fortunes are very much tied to the success of the FF franchise. FFXI is its most profitable release ever and so it is natural the market would be interested in the potential success of FFXIV. Also, there is a substantial sum of money invested in an MMO, the performance of beta is price sensitive information that will have an impact on share price.

Secondly, I have checked the corporate releases and there was no other market information released that would have had an impact on SE's share price today.

Thirdly (and perhaps most telling). I work in the financial markets (not front office) and received a briefing this morning advising of "general feedback" on SE stock pricing citing "well received beta information" as a key reason for an expected increase of around 6% in stock price first thing this morning. Currently price is up around 7.5% but that is probably partly due to a bootstrapping effect of people seeing the stock outstrip market performance so everyone starts buying up thinking someone knows something they don't. Price may fall later today back to around a 6% increase suggested.

I did not reveal the third point earlier today as I was not sure whether I was allowed to or not.

Edited, Jun 16th 2013 11:14pm by HallieXIV
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#13 Jun 16 2013 at 9:59 PM Rating: Default
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Smiley: lol Yes stock traders following a beta test in order to invest money Smiley: lol

Some of you are really innocent at times Smiley: lol
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#14 Jun 16 2013 at 10:02 PM Rating: Excellent
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Ostia wrote:
Smiley: lol Yes stock traders following a beta test in order to invest money Smiley: lol

Some of you are really innocent at times Smiley: lol


Don't follow beta tests - but do follow news media and other methods of garnering pricing information for major international corporations whose financial success is based on game popularity. If you don't understand how the markets work, that's not a reason to criticise others.

To you Ostia this is a game. To SE it is a multi-hundred million dollar investment.
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#15 Jun 16 2013 at 10:32 PM Rating: Good
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They don't even need to invest in a big data analytics engine - they can just get a general mood based on Twitter for feedback. #FFXIV combined with either positive or negative moods is a good indicator. (Add in some love from #KH3 and #FFXV and you have some very happy investors.)

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#16 Jun 17 2013 at 12:21 AM Rating: Good
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pulazka wrote:
... In hind sight short selling Square Enix stock was a huge mistake.

:P


Not by investment standards lol...they have tanked pretty hard since the merger. But I suppose the alternative was for both to go under.
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#17 Jun 17 2013 at 12:24 AM Rating: Default
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HallieXIV wrote:
Ostia wrote:
Smiley: lol Yes stock traders following a beta test in order to invest money Smiley: lol

Some of you are really innocent at times Smiley: lol


Don't follow beta tests - but do follow news media and other methods of garnering pricing information for major international corporations whose financial success is based on game popularity. If you don't understand how the markets work, that's not a reason to criticise others.

To you Ostia this is a game. To SE it is a multi-hundred million dollar investment.


There has been no news media release about beta phase 3 reception.... So there goes your argument.

But! You know... E3 just happened.... Hmmm! It could be that..... But nonono we must say it was XIV... Smiley: lol
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#18 Jun 17 2013 at 12:46 AM Rating: Excellent
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I like how everyone is certain for everything. Take Ostia for example he is certain that was not the beta.

What i am trying to say with that is you guys should keep somewhat lower profile and hold back a bit juuuuust in case you are wrong and you do not know everything.
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#19 Jun 17 2013 at 1:39 AM Rating: Excellent
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Ostia wrote:
HallieXIV wrote:
Ostia wrote:
Smiley: lol Yes stock traders following a beta test in order to invest money Smiley: lol

Some of you are really innocent at times Smiley: lol


Don't follow beta tests - but do follow news media and other methods of garnering pricing information for major international corporations whose financial success is based on game popularity. If you don't understand how the markets work, that's not a reason to criticise others.

To you Ostia this is a game. To SE it is a multi-hundred million dollar investment.


There has been no news media release about beta phase 3 reception.... So there goes your argument.

But! You know... E3 just happened.... Hmmm! It could be that..... But nonono we must say it was XIV... Smiley: lol


Ostia, I am not going to argue with you about this as that would require me to school you in market theory etc. which I am not going to do.

The markets are pretty efficient pricing new information in almost instantaneously. There are analysts who are specialists in the entertainment sector who monitor likely price events and advise brokers and front office accordingly as to stocks under/over valued and come up with recommendations. E3 events would have been priced in throughout the week last week by the analysts and whilst there would have been some carry over, most of this movement will be due to the good reception beta has had, put simply, there was nothing else that could have had a significant price impact.

I didnt mention media releases - you did. Companies are required to file certain significant information with relevant stock exchanges that they are listed on. I checked to ensure that SE had not lodged any releases that could have caused this change in price.

I am not going to argue about this anymore. You can either trust me or don't. My credentials are 20 years (almost) working in the financial markets, 10 years of that as an equities analyst - sure, I don't know everything and I often get it wrong but on this one I am speaking from a position of strength which is why I made the opening post in the first place.

In future I'll keep my posts to "I hate that FFXIV is not FFXI" to appease you, I just though this information might be of at least a little interest to a community keeping an eye on FFXIV.
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#20 Jun 17 2013 at 1:44 AM Rating: Excellent
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Teravibe wrote:
I like how everyone is certain for everything. Take Ostia for example he is certain that was not the beta.

What i am trying to say with that is you guys should keep somewhat lower profile and hold back a bit juuuuust in case you are wrong and you do not know everything.


See my posts above, I am absolutely 100% certain that the increase in share price was significantly due to a good reception of beta and resultant increase in forecast earnings. It was in investor briefings at the opening of the market this morning. Keep in mind, as noted above FFXI has been the most profitable SE release to date and so anything that could be like that is going to be of massive interest to the market.

I was a little wrong though. The briefing I read predicted a 6% increase in price for the day, the actual increase was 7.5%. That reflects a good sentiment (an in my opinion) is probably a fair increase given the dependence SE has on this game being successful.

edit: for clarity.

Edited, Jun 17th 2013 4:08am by HallieXIV
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#21 Jun 17 2013 at 1:53 AM Rating: Good
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HallieXIV wrote:
See my posts above, I am absolutely 100% certain that the increase in share price was due to a good reception of beta. It was in investor briefings at the opening of the market this morning.
I'm a little surprised that the beta was that noteworthy. I figured at most the rise in stock price would have been from the positive press SE got through all of E3 with beta being only part of that greater whole.
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#22 Jun 17 2013 at 2:06 AM Rating: Good
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Ruisu wrote:
HallieXIV wrote:
See my posts above, I am absolutely 100% certain that the increase in share price was due to a good reception of beta. It was in investor briefings at the opening of the market this morning.
I'm a little surprised that the beta was that noteworthy. I figured at most the rise in stock price would have been from the positive press SE got through all of E3 with beta being only part of that greater whole.


You are correct Ruisu, it all contributes.

It is not necessarily beta that is noteworthy, it is forecast income for SE. Market expectation of SE's income is higher today than it was Friday hence an increase in share price. Many of the E3 announcements were already priced in on Friday. Whilst there is some carry over into the weekend (when the markets don't formally trade), a 7.51% increase is a significant jump. Long term expectations of steady revenue flow cause that sort of jump, beta going from universally hated to universally loved will cause movement.

Of course, it could all fall apart if expectations change again....
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#23Ostia, Posted: Jun 17 2013 at 2:19 AM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post) You are almost as good as mitt romney was at backtracking Smiley: lol
#24 Jun 17 2013 at 2:20 AM Rating: Good
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news media =/= media releases
Other methods.
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#25 Jun 17 2013 at 2:27 AM Rating: Default
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So this "Other Methods" Include rich people playing the beta themselves ? Having people under them play them ? having people be part of the beta forum community to have inside knowledge of the game ? Data mining ? Magic 8 ball ?

You know why i am very skeptical about this ? Because every time SE loses money, or loses stock, there is always somebody that says, it was because of this game, and everybody flocks to it's defense, and say it was because of something else... But as soon as SE makes 3 dollars, it must have been this game Smiley: lol

Also do not underestimate Versus popularity... That was the best news SE delivered at E3! BY FAR!
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#26 Jun 17 2013 at 2:31 AM Rating: Excellent
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I do not claim that i know anything about this but let me ask you what day was the versus trailer in E3? Because if it was on Friday then somethings is really wrong if the market reacted 3 days later.
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#27 Jun 17 2013 at 2:35 AM Rating: Excellent
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Versus already priced in at Friday market close.

FFXI, single most profitable project in SE history. FFXIV anticipated to be same.

An analysts job is "to know" his market segment. Any analyst worth his salt in this segment knew about beta even if they did not play themselves. As I said earlier - to you, this is a game. TO SE it is worth hundreds of millions of dollars. When version 1 failed, the share price tanked and has never recovered to its earlier levels. Why is it then so hard to believe that a potential success of ARR is a financial goldmine for SE.

Imagine 1m players, each paying $11 per month for the next 6 to 10 years.

If you don't think that affects share price, you really are too naive to school.

Oh, and I am a multi-millionaire playboy game developer/lawyer with an expertise in Origami and a PhD in kicking @rse. I also schooled Van Dam in martial arts and taught Michael Jackson how to dance, and Jordan how to play ball. But in my spare time, I (used to) work as an equities analyst - and yes, I knew my market (not video games unfortunately).
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#28 Jun 17 2013 at 2:36 AM Rating: Good
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Teravibe wrote:
I do not claim that i know anything about this but let me ask you what day was the versus trailer in E3? Because if it was on Friday then somethings is really wrong if the market reacted 3 days later.


Market closed for weekend. Off market trades, dark pool trading and a few other interesting things happen on weekends but no formal pricing occurs from close of markets Friday to open of markets Monday.
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#29 Jun 17 2013 at 3:07 AM Rating: Excellent
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HallieXIV wrote:
Teravibe wrote:
I do not claim that i know anything about this but let me ask you what day was the versus trailer in E3? Because if it was on Friday then somethings is really wrong if the market reacted 3 days later.


Market closed for weekend. Off market trades, dark pool trading and a few other interesting things happen on weekends but no formal pricing occurs from close of markets Friday to open of markets Monday.


I'm always amazed at how difficult it is to get people to wrap their thoughts around the "business week" of Monday through Friday only that the financial world runs on. (No offense intended to you Teravibe.) I have heard people who had to have the days explicitly verbalized (like "3 BUSINESS days, so Friday, Monday and then Tuesday") before it clicks. I would hate to be the banker that had to explain to someone walking into a bank branch on a Saturday why their $100,000 wire that needs to get somewhere that day can't go out until Monday.
#30 Jun 17 2013 at 3:30 AM Rating: Good
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I don't know what you guys are talking about, so I'm just going to picture in my mind the scene from the end of "Trading Places". Except in my mind, Yoshi-P is Eddie Murphy, and Toshio Murouchi is Dan Akroyd. FFXIV is the oranges.
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#31 Jun 17 2013 at 3:34 AM Rating: Good
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Ravashack wrote:
I'm always amazed at how difficult it is to get people to wrap their thoughts around the "business week" of Monday through Friday only that the financial world runs on. (No offense intended to you Teravibe.) I have heard people who had to have the days explicitly verbalized (like "3 BUSINESS days, so Friday, Monday and then Tuesday") before it clicks. I would hate to be the banker that had to explain to someone walking into a bank branch on a Saturday why their $100,000 wire that needs to get somewhere that day can't go out until Monday.
Hah, yeah it's a bit surprising how that works. Especially considering that banks and some credit card companies function under the "business week". You'd think everyone would be aware of how that works, since almost everyone has a bank account and has dealt with creditors at some point.
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#32 Jun 17 2013 at 4:22 AM Rating: Excellent
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Ravashack wrote:
HallieXIV wrote:
Teravibe wrote:
I do not claim that i know anything about this but let me ask you what day was the versus trailer in E3? Because if it was on Friday then somethings is really wrong if the market reacted 3 days later.


Market closed for weekend. Off market trades, dark pool trading and a few other interesting things happen on weekends but no formal pricing occurs from close of markets Friday to open of markets Monday.


I'm always amazed at how difficult it is to get people to wrap their thoughts around the "business week" of Monday through Friday only that the financial world runs on. (No offense intended to you Teravibe.) I have heard people who had to have the days explicitly verbalized (like "3 BUSINESS days, so Friday, Monday and then Tuesday") before it clicks. I would hate to be the banker that had to explain to someone walking into a bank branch on a Saturday why their $100,000 wire that needs to get somewhere that day can't go out until Monday.



I never said that the market was working in the weekend after all i AM working in a bank so yea i am the person that would have to explain to the guy that when we said we will move his transaction in 2 bussiness days we didn't mean the weekend.

What i ment was with the the 3 days (not 3 business days mind) was that if the announcement was made on Friday i would expect that by the time the market would close on Friday we would have seen changes not on Monday. I guess it didn't go out as i wanted it to go.


Edited, Jun 17th 2013 6:23am by Teravibe
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