[quote=BartelX]Regardless of all that, this is FFXIV and the dev costs are clearly more than 25 mil.../quote]
For some reason I want to say I saw a number of them being in the 250m range of production. It sounds absolutely absurd to me, but I guess it's more believable if you consider they basically made two games. From here, we know they allegedly have 900k beta users. Let's be generous and say they all stick around and then another 350k join post-launch. We're now at 1.25m users. Honestly, I'm forgetting the proposed sub fee or if there'll be discounts, but let's use $15 since that's a rough standard.
250,000,000 / (15.00 * 1,250,000) = 13.34
So in 13.34 months, they'll have made their money back. Of course, we can't really use that number since it doesn't account future dev cost and how much XIV actually gets from their subs while SE funnels off some to pay for other things. I'm feeling like 2 years a fairer estimate, but sh*t's printing money even if you halve the sub numbers. So, while shooting for the proverbial WoW-killer is always a losing proposition, I dunno, I think this may have the fairest shot compared to other recent launches. Rift had the disadvantage of no franchise power and mediocre graphics. I don't think I've ever played a good Star Wars game. GW2 overhyped itself, fell short, and has been @#%^ing terrible about non-seasonal content. Aion was far too grindy and terribly imbalanced for a "PvP game". Can look at other ones like Warhammer, Age of Conan, TERA, City of Heroes, LotR:O, and numerous others to see they either had glaring faults at the start or just didn't age well. And indeed most didn't have the safety net XIV does via SE. I think if SE tried for XI 2.0 with XIV, it'd flop again. And assuming the endgame isn't as unforgiving about progression as I've seen others, I think SE will be in a good place. They've still got work to do, but I'd also be worried if an MMO said they didn't...
This game has spent nowhere near close to 250mil. When you speak about funneling. I think this game will be a reverse of XI for awhile. Other profits will help fund ARR in the short term for sure. People forget that SE isn't just a game developer like many other companies. They have a foot in the music, toy, and film industry as well in addition to being a major publisher in the videogames industry. This is what allows them to approach this as they have.
Final Fantasy is in a wonderful position if they do not completely alienate the players who come into this from playing the offline titles only. Which FF is your favorite of all the Final Fantasies? Now not saying ARR is going to be everyone's favorite. But imagine if it was. What if SE designed a universe you absolutely love and then you find out that the game is never going to stop getting new lands, content, story, gear, etc. I would play it a long time. To achieve this, ARR doesn't have to become a massive single player mmo. It just has to have compelling content outside the raid/dungeon mmo content. Some content that is created for users to participate in even when they don't feel like doing the large group content.
Content for smaller groups that contribute to the larger whole like:
Crafting gear and items
Crafting ship/house/airship/magitek parts
An expansive chocbo system that extends beyond mounts(see the other chocobo dream thread on these forums)
Magitek battle circuits
Chocobo racing leagues
Some low man content in dungeons or questlines
PvP variety beyond the standard mmo PvP
An mmorpg at heart with a sprinkle of Massive Single Player rpg. It's a concept that Nintendo and other developers are beginning to look into this generation of consoles. Only they are doing the reverse and creating a Massive single player game at heart with a sprinkle of mmo.
And last but not least. I do not know how huge the benefits will be. But ARR is getting released in China. Edited, Jun 27th 2013 7:58pm by sandpark