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#1 Sep 04 2013 at 9:31 PM Rating: Good
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Hey guys,

Now that I have taken Pugilist to 30 and unlocked Monk, I decided to level Leatherworking to start melding some materia myself instead of requiring outside help. I am now level 16, and to be honest, the huge amount of failures I get is really starting to annoy me. I know that Basic Synthesis has a success rate of 90% and Basic Touch has 70%, but I am almost convinced SE just confused the words "success" and "failure". At least 50% of the time I only manage a single successful Basic Touch, and quite often when I do manage to get a high HQ percentage, I'd fail the final Basic Synthesis.

I am currently making more Hard Leather (level 8), and I just can't seem to get any luck at all, even though I am double the level of the craft. Am I missing something? I have all the best gear for my level I can find at vendors, I use food as well.
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#2 Sep 04 2013 at 9:37 PM Rating: Good
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My LTW is 14 my stats are craft 90 control 89 cp 197
I make hard leather easy.

What are your stats like?

I made a macro for these kinds of synths

/ac "Basic Touch" <me>
wait 3
/ac "Basic Touch" <me>
wait 3
/ac "Basic Synthesis" <me>
wait 3
/ac "Master's Mend" <me>
wait 3
/ac "Basic Touch" <me>
wait 3
/ac "Basic Synthesis" <me>

#3 Sep 04 2013 at 9:41 PM Rating: Good
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Steady Hand + Basic Synthesis = Can't Fail

How much you want to push it towards HQ is up to you, but if your are failing a lot, less touching more synthing.
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#4 Sep 04 2013 at 9:47 PM Rating: Good
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My stats are fine, 105 control, 111 craftmanship, 240 CP.

I changed the way I do things a little, I use Inner Quiet and Steady Hand right at the start, then I spam Basic Touch until I reach a high enough HQ percentage and then use Basic Synthesis to finish.

Seems to be much better now.
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#5 Sep 04 2013 at 10:08 PM Rating: Good
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Tubrudi wrote:
Hey guys,

Now that I have taken Pugilist to 30 and unlocked Monk, I decided to level Leatherworking to start melding some materia myself instead of requiring outside help. I am now level 16, and to be honest, the huge amount of failures I get is really starting to annoy me. I know that Basic Synthesis has a success rate of 90% and Basic Touch has 70%, but I am almost convinced SE just confused the words "success" and "failure". At least 50% of the time I only manage a single successful Basic Touch, and quite often when I do manage to get a high HQ percentage, I'd fail the final Basic Synthesis.

I am currently making more Hard Leather (level 8), and I just can't seem to get any luck at all, even though I am double the level of the craft. Am I missing something? I have all the best gear for my level I can find at vendors, I use food as well.


Success rate is affected by your Craftsmanship, Control, Level and the Difficulty of recipe (shown in recipe screen). Only 100% success rate is 100%.

No, you can NOT craft naked no longer. You need all crafting clothes you can get, main hand and off hand tool as soon as possible and match your level. By end-game you can't even attempt some recipe if you don't fulfill the craftsmanship/control requirement.

In order to HQ at end-game you require a lot of lvl 50 craft ability from many different crafts. You also sometimes luck out with Byregot's Blessing (lvl 50 CRP) on an Excellent condition, I hit another record of 1374 Quality in one hit the other day with Rosegold Nugget.

Edited, Sep 5th 2013 12:11am by Khornette
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#6 Sep 04 2013 at 10:28 PM Rating: Good
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Weaving to 15 for Careful Synthesis.. Never fail that last hit again.
#7 Sep 04 2013 at 10:33 PM Rating: Excellent
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Weaver has an ability that's a guaranteed progress success at 80% the rate of basic touch. For a lot of the more mundane synths, it's basically success in a click or two, and it's certainly handy for trying to EXP on material refining as you can push stuff to that last 10% if you're smart and not worry about the RNG ******** you. Only time I've really needed to use basic touch was when I was shooting for higher end synths with 90+ requirements.

Personally crabby because I NQed a synth with a 96% chance f HQing earlier, though. ;_;

Edited, Sep 5th 2013 12:33am by Seriha
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#8 Sep 04 2013 at 11:11 PM Rating: Good
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Mopdaddy wrote:
Weaving to 15 for Careful Synthesis.. Never fail that last hit again.


Oh? Thank you for this!! Going to save me a lot of hassle!
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#9 Sep 05 2013 at 5:08 AM Rating: Good
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Khornette wrote:
[quote=Tubrudi
No, you can NOT craft naked no longer. You need all crafting clothes you can get, main hand and off hand tool as soon as possible and match your level. By end-game you can't even attempt some recipe if you don't fulfill the craftsmanship/control requirement.
Edited, Sep 5th 2013 12:11am by Khornette


Don't forget about the benefits of food buffs. I know there are some Free Company buffs, are there any that help with the synths?
#10 Sep 05 2013 at 5:31 AM Rating: Good
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Seriha wrote:
Personally crabby because I NQed a synth with a 96% chance f HQing earlier, though. ;_;

Edited, Sep 5th 2013 12:33am by Seriha


This seems to happen to me more than it should. RNG gods have never liked me.
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#11 Sep 05 2013 at 6:00 AM Rating: Excellent
Mopdaddy wrote:
Weaving to 15 for Careful Synthesis.. Never fail that last hit again.


Weaving to 50 for Careful Synthesis II. Never use another ability to gain progress again. (120% efficency, 100% Success Rate, Cost: 0)
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#12 Sep 05 2013 at 10:30 AM Rating: Excellent
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StateAlchemist, Om nom nom... wrote:
Mopdaddy wrote:
Weaving to 15 for Careful Synthesis.. Never fail that last hit again.


Weaving to 50 for Careful Synthesis II. Never use another ability to gain progress again. (120% efficency, 100% Success Rate, Cost: 0)


Now THAT is more appealing, yes =X

Although I'd still use Standard Synthesis if I needed a bigger boost (150% efficiency, 90% success rate, so still in Steady Hand range).
#13 Sep 05 2013 at 1:51 PM Rating: Good
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StateAlchemist, Om nom nom... wrote:
Mopdaddy wrote:
Weaving to 15 for Careful Synthesis.. Never fail that last hit again.


Weaving to 50 for Careful Synthesis II. Never use another ability to gain progress again. (120% efficency, 100% Success Rate, Cost: 0)


Hmmm, time to start up weaving then hahah :P

Managed Leatherworker to 27 last night, got bored when the Failures started striking again... Making Voyager Belts, I didn't manage to craft a single item for 10 minutes since the "90%" success rate was failing EVERY SINGLE TIME >_<. Ended up jumping on Monk to go get some frustrations out lol.
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#14 Sep 05 2013 at 4:48 PM Rating: Good
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rubina wrote:
Khornette wrote:
[quote=Tubrudi
No, you can NOT craft naked no longer. You need all crafting clothes you can get, main hand and off hand tool as soon as possible and match your level. By end-game you can't even attempt some recipe if you don't fulfill the craftsmanship/control requirement.
Edited, Sep 5th 2013 12:11am by Khornette


Don't forget about the benefits of food buffs. I know there are some Free Company buffs, are there any that help with the synths?


Those are more for going HQ or meeting the end-game stat requirement. For normal grinding they aren't that much help.

Currently I have 336 Craftsmanship and 325 Control, which means I still need to pop small food for craftsmanship for end-game recipe requirement (saving the Materia/Catalyst for other stuff). I've heard of a hard cap 400 Control (without using ability like Inner Quiet).

My advice is that try for the Relic tool, it's a massive help and thousand times easier than Luminary with same stat. I did 1-50 GSM quest yesterday for total of 45 mins, the ending is super fun - LALAFELL HEADBUTT.

Edited, Sep 5th 2013 6:52pm by Khornette
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#15 Sep 05 2013 at 5:10 PM Rating: Default
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StateAlchemist, Om nom nom... wrote:
Mopdaddy wrote:
Weaving to 15 for Careful Synthesis.. Never fail that last hit again.


Weaving to 50 for Careful Synthesis II. Never use another ability to gain progress again. (120% efficency, 100% Success Rate, Cost: 0)


Yea but not many people want to take weaving to 50 immediately.
#16 Sep 05 2013 at 6:17 PM Rating: Excellent
Well there is a method of doing so in 1 day.
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#17 Sep 05 2013 at 6:25 PM Rating: Decent
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Is there a path of Crafting jobs that would be the most effective way to leveling all crafts?

I mean we just started playing the game. I don't know about you but I'm pretty excited and I play all the time. Might as well be productive about it...


Edited, Sep 5th 2013 8:29pm by FluEpidemic
#18 Sep 05 2013 at 7:18 PM Rating: Excellent
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StateAlchemist, Om nom nom... wrote:
Mopdaddy wrote:
Weaving to 15 for Careful Synthesis.. Never fail that last hit again.


Weaving to 50 for Careful Synthesis II. Never use another ability to gain progress again. (120% efficency, 100% Success Rate, Cost: 0)

*groan* And here I was contemplating just focusing a combat job to 50 first. This would be pretty huge for all other crafts, but I'm also in diremite web **** at the moment for Weaver, so I don't know...
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#19 Sep 05 2013 at 7:44 PM Rating: Excellent
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FluEpidemic wrote:
Is there a path of Crafting jobs that would be the most effective way to leveling all crafts?

I mean we just started playing the game. I don't know about you but I'm pretty excited and I play all the time. Might as well be productive about it...


Edited, Sep 5th 2013 8:29pm by FluEpidemic

Well, every craft has a shared ability @ level 15, that can be cross-classed. The WVR one (90% efficiency synthesis, 100% success) is one of the best. Plus, as a WVR you can make a large range of clothing as your crafting gear. LTW can also do this, but it relies on a high-level DoW/DoM class to gather skins - WVR can be done easily with a concurrent BTN. GSM & MNR have a similar relationship (my starting path btw), and can make jewellery for all classes. I don't get as much gear out of it for my crafter as I would on WVR, but it also helps MNR & LNC/DRG - plus whatever I choose to level next Smiley: smile
#20 Sep 05 2013 at 9:11 PM Rating: Default
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...

Edited, Sep 6th 2013 12:18am by Mopdaddy
#21 Sep 05 2013 at 9:18 PM Rating: Default
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I want to say, I don't think the HQ percentages are correct. Or they indicate something else.

I feel like I score HQ when my level beats the level of the item I'm working on a lot more than the % would indicate.

If I'm level 50 and I'm synthing a level 10 item. And I have a 20% HQ I think I'd HQ a lot more than 20%

Has anyone run into this feeling or kept track of anything like this?

Also, When I hit HQ 85% I feel like I score HQ Waaaaay more often than I'd expect. 85% HQ or above feels like 99% success rate too me.

But gut feelings are bad with stats. So I wonder if anyone is doing any testing or happens to know the real math behind HQing an item.
#22 Sep 05 2013 at 9:22 PM Rating: Good
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Whats to figure out? 20% is simply a 1 in 5 chance to hq. It's simple odds.
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#23 Sep 05 2013 at 11:56 PM Rating: Default
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Squander wrote:
I want to say, I don't think the HQ percentages are correct. Or they indicate something else.

I feel like I score HQ when my level beats the level of the item I'm working on a lot more than the % would indicate.

If I'm level 50 and I'm synthing a level 10 item. And I have a 20% HQ I think I'd HQ a lot more than 20%

Has anyone run into this feeling or kept track of anything like this?

Also, When I hit HQ 85% I feel like I score HQ Waaaaay more often than I'd expect. 85% HQ or above feels like 99% success rate too me.

But gut feelings are bad with stats. So I wonder if anyone is doing any testing or happens to know the real math behind HQing an item.


.......what "math"?

It's clear as day when you look at it. You start off with a 1% chance, and as you put in quality it rises on a slope/exponential curve towards 100%. It isn't that hard; it probably rolls a check of 1 - 100 and if you land on your HQ% or lower (i.e. 20, 35, 64, 98) that's your shot at getting a high quality. It's probably the most straightforward mechanic in FFXIV in terms of return: fill up the bar, get a better chance at HQ.

That's all it is to it.
#24 Sep 06 2013 at 8:02 AM Rating: Good
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Still think the bar's a dirty liar. :(
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#25 Sep 06 2013 at 8:20 AM Rating: Default
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Viertel wrote:

.......what "math"?

It's clear as day when you look at it. You start off with a 1% chance, and as you put in quality it rises on a slope/exponential curve towards 100%. It isn't that hard; it probably rolls a check of 1 - 100 and if you land on your HQ% or lower (i.e. 20, 35, 64, 98) that's your shot at getting a high quality. It's probably the most straightforward mechanic in FFXIV in terms of return: fill up the bar, get a better chance at HQ.

That's all it is to it.


Yeah, the whole premise is that the % doesn't seem accurate. If I synth a 20% HQ item and I'm a much higher level than the item, I find I have a higher than 20% chance of HQing that item. I'd need to do 1k items and record to see if this is true or maybe I just ran into a funky streak, but I'm wondering if anyone else has noticed this effect.

Try it yourself with 10 low level items. Get it to between 20-25% and synth it. See if you score HQ more than you should given the HQ%

I think it's highly possible that HQ% is only one variable in the check and that your level and the items level and perhaps the number of steps taken are also factors. This feeling could be way off base, sure. But that's the premise of the question. Has anyone noticed that behavior? Does anyone know for certain how the check for HQ works?

I understand that it seems like it would be a simple percentage from how it's presented on screen, that just hasn't been my experience with synthing so far.

Edited, Sep 6th 2013 10:20am by Squander
#26 Sep 06 2013 at 10:00 AM Rating: Decent
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........what part of random do you not understand.

20% is 20% is 20%. If you land on 20% more, great! You're lucky.

That's ALL there is too it.
#27 Sep 06 2013 at 5:09 PM Rating: Decent
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I think some of the percentages are dirty @#%^ing liars. I should be buying a lottery ticket on some of the compound odds that happen to me when crafting. Three 30% fails and a 10% fail? Hello 1 in 370 chance... and then it happens twice just a couple synths.

Starting to agree there's a hidden fatigue system or at least some other factor other than the failure rate shown on the skill.

Edited, Sep 6th 2013 4:18pm by Raelix
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#28 Sep 07 2013 at 12:20 AM Rating: Good
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Raelix wrote:
I think some of the percentages are dirty @#%^ing liars. I should be buying a lottery ticket on some of the compound odds that happen to me when crafting. Three 30% fails and a 10% fail? Hello 1 in 370 chance... and then it happens twice just a couple synths.

Starting to agree there's a hidden fatigue system or at least some other factor other than the failure rate shown on the skill.

Edited, Sep 6th 2013 4:18pm by Raelix


I'd really like to see some statistical testing on this. It's funny because I was just talking with my friend about a possible crafting fatigue system at work. We both noticed that as we crafted we started to fail synths more as time went on.

This reminds me of an old Dilbert strip.
http://www.enigmatres.es/wp-content/uploads/2008/05/dilbert-oct_25_0011.jpg
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#29 Sep 30 2013 at 9:57 PM Rating: Good
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I have gotten Leatherworker up to 36 now, and leveled Weaver, Alchemist, Carpenter and Culnarian to 15 to get their level 15 abilities. I have to say, I still think I have the worst luck ever. Crafting something 10 levels below me and I just can't get it past 17% no matter what I do. It's starting to really annoy me now haha.
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#30 Sep 30 2013 at 10:29 PM Rating: Good
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Well, my general routine tends to be along the lines of:
Inner Quiet > Steady Hand > Waste Not to start.
If I get a Good proc after Inner Quiet, then I'll use Tricks to get 20 CP back. If not, the routine here might vary depending on what I'm doing.
If it's some fodder synth I could definitely do with 1 Careful Synth, then I'll start pumping out the Basic/Standard Touches. I've been growing more in the habit of using the first tier Touch until a Good or Excellent pops, but if I'm near the end of the synth and sitting on a bunch of CP, then I'll start using the better ones as I can.
Anyway, after the initial combo is spent, if I wound up using a lot of CP, I'll pop Rumination and/or hope for Tricks and pop Rumi hoping for that again, too. Sometimes I'll apply both SH and WN, but usually I just do SH and continue to work on quality unless it's one of those 100+ synths where you're bumping up 15 durability or so at a time.

Rest is honestly just luck.

Overall, though, Waste Not is more CP efficient than Mends. This can be big for those hard synths where you may not even touch quality at all until the last few tries. I haven't pegged just how much CP the IQ/Rumi combo replenishes, but I want to say it's somewhere between 1/2 and 1/3 the CP spent on successful touches. I also feel like it hits a diminishing return after a point, but never sat down to test. Personally curious a craft with max everything might function, as I'm only 50 GSM with everything else at least 20.
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#31 Oct 01 2013 at 12:44 AM Rating: Good
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Comfort Zone -> Inner Quiet -> Steady Hand II -> Rapid Synthesis -> Rapid Synthesis -> Innovation -> Basic Touch -> Basic Touch -> Advanced Touch -> Manipulation -> Steady Hand II -> Comfort Zone -> Innovation -> Hasty Touch -> Hasty Touch/Basic Touch -> Hasty Touch/Basic Touch -> Innovation -> Great Stride -> Byregot's Blessing -> Careful Synthesis II
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#32 Oct 01 2013 at 1:07 AM Rating: Decent
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Above definetely is not a good practice if you want high HQ rate...
#33 Oct 01 2013 at 1:35 AM Rating: Decent
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Khornette wrote:
Comfort Zone -> Inner Quiet -> Steady Hand II -> Rapid Synthesis -> Rapid Synthesis -> Innovation -> Basic Touch -> Basic Touch -> Advanced Touch -> Manipulation -> Steady Hand II -> Comfort Zone -> Innovation -> Hasty Touch -> Hasty Touch/Basic Touch -> Hasty Touch/Basic Touch -> Innovation -> Great Stride -> Byregot's Blessing -> Careful Synthesis II


Stop using innovation, the boost is only based off your base control not your control after Inner Quiet stacks.

Quote:
Overall, though, Waste Not is more CP efficient than Mends.

In order to maintain this efficiency you need to not get more than 1 good throughout the total of every turn that Waste Not is active. Assuming you're utilizing the goods for tricks of the trade of course. Once you've wasted two turns of Waste Not, it becomes less CP efficient than Master's Mend. And it will never be as efficient as Master's Mend II on things that have enough durability for it.

Edited, Oct 1st 2013 3:44am by Deadgye
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#34 Oct 01 2013 at 1:53 AM Rating: Good
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Tubrudi wrote:
I have gotten Leatherworker up to 36 now, and leveled Weaver, Alchemist, Carpenter and Culnarian to 15 to get their level 15 abilities. I have to say, I still think I have the worst luck ever. Crafting something 10 levels below me and I just can't get it past 17% no matter what I do. It's starting to really annoy me now haha.


How are you trying to bump up Quality? Have you organized it into a particular method or...? There's two extremes that people tend to go towards -- burning all your CP on stacking buffs for Goods and Excellents or saving the vast majority of your CP for recovering durability.
#35 Oct 01 2013 at 2:16 AM Rating: Good
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I take no credit for this whatsoever (someone on another forum linked to this). The person who wrote it is not a native English speaker, so the grammar is a bit scattershot, but if you want to HQ finished products a LOT more often; look no further:

http://www.reddit.com/r/ffxiv/comments/1mh6um/crafting_guidetheorycrafting_dont_let_crafters/
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#36 Oct 01 2013 at 2:20 AM Rating: Good
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OK, here is how I manage crafting, and it's working well for me. First off, you need to do a dry run to work out how many syths you need to complete an item. Once you have that down, you know roughly how many turns you'll need to complete the item.

First thing you do is hit inner quiet, this exponentially increases quality with every successful synth by approx 10 or 11 points.

Next thing you do is hit Steady Hand (or preferably, Steady Hand II). If you are in luck the quality has moved to good and you can regain 20CP with a trick of the trade.

Next you hit Hasty Hand until your Steady Hand has expired (using Tricks of the Trade as an when it procs). Hasty Hand cost 0CP and will have a 70% proc (with SH), or 80% proc (with SHII).

By only spending CP on SH and regaining it as and when you can with TotT you will be able to use Masters Mend, or Masters Mend II more often.

Now, by the time you have about 400 quality left to complete the chances are that your Inner Quiet stack has around a 180-200 quality completion in your last synth so, if possible, hit great strides and hasty hand and, if it procs, will complete the quality (as it will double, so will complete for 400-440 quality).

The chances are you'll only have about 20-30 durability at this point, so hit Renumerate and, if it returns enough CP, use Masters Mend or Waste Not to increase your durability, giving you 4 or 5 turns to finish off the synth, even better if you can stack another SH after that.

If your synth turns excellent then use Standard Synth to proc and this will stack with your inner strength and the CP cost is mitigated by the leap in quality.

I guarantee if you follow this you'll HQ more than you'll NQ, just be prepared for your synthesis rate to slow down.

Always keep an eye on what durability you have left and how much you can recover, there is no point in going for the 100% quality if it only leaves you 20 durability and you need to gamble on a Rapid Synthesis, that is why I encourage you to do a test synth first to confirm how many turns are needed to complete the item.

Edited, Oct 1st 2013 4:48am by SolomonGrundy
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#37 Oct 01 2013 at 2:46 AM Rating: Good
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Deadgye wrote:
Khornette wrote:
Comfort Zone -> Inner Quiet -> Steady Hand II -> Rapid Synthesis -> Rapid Synthesis -> Innovation -> Basic Touch -> Basic Touch -> Advanced Touch -> Manipulation -> Steady Hand II -> Comfort Zone -> Innovation -> Hasty Touch -> Hasty Touch/Basic Touch -> Hasty Touch/Basic Touch -> Innovation -> Great Stride -> Byregot's Blessing -> Careful Synthesis II


Stop using innovation, the boost is only based off your base control not your control after Inner Quiet stacks.


160-200 extra Control for 3 steps and you tell me not to use it? Hokayz.
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#38 Oct 01 2013 at 4:05 AM Rating: Good
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Don't worry about failing when just doing progress based synths. All you need to do is be mindful of how much durability you can burn before you need to ride Careful Synthesis to the finish. Or Steady Hand + Basic.

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#39 Oct 01 2013 at 8:38 AM Rating: Good
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One thing to remember when thinking about % is that most people equate numbers like 20% to equal 1 out of 5.

In computers, that is not true. It would be nice if it was, but, typically developers program RNGs (Random Number Generators) based on a principal of a non-repeatable non-linear numeric result.

This means that there is no one set of circumstances where you can produce a predictable numeric result from the number.

Where in Mathematics, probability is done through Matrices, you don't typically want to, or need to do that much work in a video game RNG. If a probability Matrix was used, then 20% would be 1 out of 5 with a certain margin of error.

Instead, the RNG *should* generate a number between 1-100 randomly 1% of the time. With each number being likely or possible to come up.

However, anyone who has ever worked on an RNG should know, there are a series of traps that occur, the most common when learning tend to be:
1) Numbers form a notable incrementing amount.
2) A single number will never actually repeat
3) Numbers tend to spike from high to low values, avoiding mid ranges
4) Numbers tend to cluster around a value for large sampling

As a result, many computer based (and SE has shown this very much through the history of their programs) to have a VERY random generator that does not produce numbers that fall within any viable probability chart.

With a standard thought on probability, you would have a probability chart like this for something that has a 20% chance of success
 
Attempt	Chance of Success	based on Success	Based on Fails 
1	20%			59%			80% 
2	20%			18%			97% 
3	20%			2.7%			99.8% 
4	20%			0.1%			100% 

Where with SE's algorithms, what we actually see is more like:
 
Attempt	Chance of Success	based on Success	Based on Fails 
1	20%			20%			20% 
2	20%			20%			20% 
3	20%			20%			20% 
4	20%			20%			20% 


*all numbers a crude, and while, *should be* functionally accurate, may not stand up to a math test (for any math geeks who are looking to prove me wrong) and are based off of a quick run through the Binomial Probability formula (P(x) = nCx * p^x * q^(n-x))...
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