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Crafting Success RateFollow

#1 Sep 04 2013 at 9:31 PM Rating: Good
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Hey guys,

Now that I have taken Pugilist to 30 and unlocked Monk, I decided to level Leatherworking to start melding some materia myself instead of requiring outside help. I am now level 16, and to be honest, the huge amount of failures I get is really starting to annoy me. I know that Basic Synthesis has a success rate of 90% and Basic Touch has 70%, but I am almost convinced SE just confused the words "success" and "failure". At least 50% of the time I only manage a single successful Basic Touch, and quite often when I do manage to get a high HQ percentage, I'd fail the final Basic Synthesis.

I am currently making more Hard Leather (level 8), and I just can't seem to get any luck at all, even though I am double the level of the craft. Am I missing something? I have all the best gear for my level I can find at vendors, I use food as well.
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#2 Sep 04 2013 at 9:37 PM Rating: Good
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My LTW is 14 my stats are craft 90 control 89 cp 197
I make hard leather easy.

What are your stats like?

I made a macro for these kinds of synths

/ac "Basic Touch" <me>
wait 3
/ac "Basic Touch" <me>
wait 3
/ac "Basic Synthesis" <me>
wait 3
/ac "Master's Mend" <me>
wait 3
/ac "Basic Touch" <me>
wait 3
/ac "Basic Synthesis" <me>

#3 Sep 04 2013 at 9:41 PM Rating: Good
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Steady Hand + Basic Synthesis = Can't Fail

How much you want to push it towards HQ is up to you, but if your are failing a lot, less touching more synthing.
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#4 Sep 04 2013 at 9:47 PM Rating: Good
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My stats are fine, 105 control, 111 craftmanship, 240 CP.

I changed the way I do things a little, I use Inner Quiet and Steady Hand right at the start, then I spam Basic Touch until I reach a high enough HQ percentage and then use Basic Synthesis to finish.

Seems to be much better now.
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#5 Sep 04 2013 at 10:08 PM Rating: Good
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Tubrudi wrote:
Hey guys,

Now that I have taken Pugilist to 30 and unlocked Monk, I decided to level Leatherworking to start melding some materia myself instead of requiring outside help. I am now level 16, and to be honest, the huge amount of failures I get is really starting to annoy me. I know that Basic Synthesis has a success rate of 90% and Basic Touch has 70%, but I am almost convinced SE just confused the words "success" and "failure". At least 50% of the time I only manage a single successful Basic Touch, and quite often when I do manage to get a high HQ percentage, I'd fail the final Basic Synthesis.

I am currently making more Hard Leather (level 8), and I just can't seem to get any luck at all, even though I am double the level of the craft. Am I missing something? I have all the best gear for my level I can find at vendors, I use food as well.


Success rate is affected by your Craftsmanship, Control, Level and the Difficulty of recipe (shown in recipe screen). Only 100% success rate is 100%.

No, you can NOT craft naked no longer. You need all crafting clothes you can get, main hand and off hand tool as soon as possible and match your level. By end-game you can't even attempt some recipe if you don't fulfill the craftsmanship/control requirement.

In order to HQ at end-game you require a lot of lvl 50 craft ability from many different crafts. You also sometimes luck out with Byregot's Blessing (lvl 50 CRP) on an Excellent condition, I hit another record of 1374 Quality in one hit the other day with Rosegold Nugget.

Edited, Sep 5th 2013 12:11am by Khornette
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#6 Sep 04 2013 at 10:28 PM Rating: Good
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Weaving to 15 for Careful Synthesis.. Never fail that last hit again.
#7 Sep 04 2013 at 10:33 PM Rating: Excellent
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Weaver has an ability that's a guaranteed progress success at 80% the rate of basic touch. For a lot of the more mundane synths, it's basically success in a click or two, and it's certainly handy for trying to EXP on material refining as you can push stuff to that last 10% if you're smart and not worry about the RNG ******** you. Only time I've really needed to use basic touch was when I was shooting for higher end synths with 90+ requirements.

Personally crabby because I NQed a synth with a 96% chance f HQing earlier, though. ;_;

Edited, Sep 5th 2013 12:33am by Seriha
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#8 Sep 04 2013 at 11:11 PM Rating: Good
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Mopdaddy wrote:
Weaving to 15 for Careful Synthesis.. Never fail that last hit again.


Oh? Thank you for this!! Going to save me a lot of hassle!
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#9 Sep 05 2013 at 5:08 AM Rating: Good
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Khornette wrote:
[quote=Tubrudi
No, you can NOT craft naked no longer. You need all crafting clothes you can get, main hand and off hand tool as soon as possible and match your level. By end-game you can't even attempt some recipe if you don't fulfill the craftsmanship/control requirement.
Edited, Sep 5th 2013 12:11am by Khornette


Don't forget about the benefits of food buffs. I know there are some Free Company buffs, are there any that help with the synths?
#10 Sep 05 2013 at 5:31 AM Rating: Good
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Seriha wrote:
Personally crabby because I NQed a synth with a 96% chance f HQing earlier, though. ;_;

Edited, Sep 5th 2013 12:33am by Seriha


This seems to happen to me more than it should. RNG gods have never liked me.
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#11 Sep 05 2013 at 6:00 AM Rating: Excellent
Mopdaddy wrote:
Weaving to 15 for Careful Synthesis.. Never fail that last hit again.


Weaving to 50 for Careful Synthesis II. Never use another ability to gain progress again. (120% efficency, 100% Success Rate, Cost: 0)
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#12 Sep 05 2013 at 10:30 AM Rating: Excellent
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StateAlchemist, Om nom nom... wrote:
Mopdaddy wrote:
Weaving to 15 for Careful Synthesis.. Never fail that last hit again.


Weaving to 50 for Careful Synthesis II. Never use another ability to gain progress again. (120% efficency, 100% Success Rate, Cost: 0)


Now THAT is more appealing, yes =X

Although I'd still use Standard Synthesis if I needed a bigger boost (150% efficiency, 90% success rate, so still in Steady Hand range).
#13 Sep 05 2013 at 1:51 PM Rating: Good
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StateAlchemist, Om nom nom... wrote:
Mopdaddy wrote:
Weaving to 15 for Careful Synthesis.. Never fail that last hit again.


Weaving to 50 for Careful Synthesis II. Never use another ability to gain progress again. (120% efficency, 100% Success Rate, Cost: 0)


Hmmm, time to start up weaving then hahah :P

Managed Leatherworker to 27 last night, got bored when the Failures started striking again... Making Voyager Belts, I didn't manage to craft a single item for 10 minutes since the "90%" success rate was failing EVERY SINGLE TIME >_<. Ended up jumping on Monk to go get some frustrations out lol.
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#14 Sep 05 2013 at 4:48 PM Rating: Good
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rubina wrote:
Khornette wrote:
[quote=Tubrudi
No, you can NOT craft naked no longer. You need all crafting clothes you can get, main hand and off hand tool as soon as possible and match your level. By end-game you can't even attempt some recipe if you don't fulfill the craftsmanship/control requirement.
Edited, Sep 5th 2013 12:11am by Khornette


Don't forget about the benefits of food buffs. I know there are some Free Company buffs, are there any that help with the synths?


Those are more for going HQ or meeting the end-game stat requirement. For normal grinding they aren't that much help.

Currently I have 336 Craftsmanship and 325 Control, which means I still need to pop small food for craftsmanship for end-game recipe requirement (saving the Materia/Catalyst for other stuff). I've heard of a hard cap 400 Control (without using ability like Inner Quiet).

My advice is that try for the Relic tool, it's a massive help and thousand times easier than Luminary with same stat. I did 1-50 GSM quest yesterday for total of 45 mins, the ending is super fun - LALAFELL HEADBUTT.

Edited, Sep 5th 2013 6:52pm by Khornette
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#15 Sep 05 2013 at 5:10 PM Rating: Default
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StateAlchemist, Om nom nom... wrote:
Mopdaddy wrote:
Weaving to 15 for Careful Synthesis.. Never fail that last hit again.


Weaving to 50 for Careful Synthesis II. Never use another ability to gain progress again. (120% efficency, 100% Success Rate, Cost: 0)


Yea but not many people want to take weaving to 50 immediately.
#16 Sep 05 2013 at 6:17 PM Rating: Excellent
Well there is a method of doing so in 1 day.
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#17 Sep 05 2013 at 6:25 PM Rating: Decent
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Is there a path of Crafting jobs that would be the most effective way to leveling all crafts?

I mean we just started playing the game. I don't know about you but I'm pretty excited and I play all the time. Might as well be productive about it...


Edited, Sep 5th 2013 8:29pm by FluEpidemic
#18 Sep 05 2013 at 7:18 PM Rating: Excellent
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StateAlchemist, Om nom nom... wrote:
Mopdaddy wrote:
Weaving to 15 for Careful Synthesis.. Never fail that last hit again.


Weaving to 50 for Careful Synthesis II. Never use another ability to gain progress again. (120% efficency, 100% Success Rate, Cost: 0)

*groan* And here I was contemplating just focusing a combat job to 50 first. This would be pretty huge for all other crafts, but I'm also in diremite web **** at the moment for Weaver, so I don't know...
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#19 Sep 05 2013 at 7:44 PM Rating: Excellent
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FluEpidemic wrote:
Is there a path of Crafting jobs that would be the most effective way to leveling all crafts?

I mean we just started playing the game. I don't know about you but I'm pretty excited and I play all the time. Might as well be productive about it...


Edited, Sep 5th 2013 8:29pm by FluEpidemic

Well, every craft has a shared ability @ level 15, that can be cross-classed. The WVR one (90% efficiency synthesis, 100% success) is one of the best. Plus, as a WVR you can make a large range of clothing as your crafting gear. LTW can also do this, but it relies on a high-level DoW/DoM class to gather skins - WVR can be done easily with a concurrent BTN. GSM & MNR have a similar relationship (my starting path btw), and can make jewellery for all classes. I don't get as much gear out of it for my crafter as I would on WVR, but it also helps MNR & LNC/DRG - plus whatever I choose to level next Smiley: smile
#20 Sep 05 2013 at 9:11 PM Rating: Default
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...

Edited, Sep 6th 2013 12:18am by Mopdaddy
#21 Sep 05 2013 at 9:18 PM Rating: Default
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I want to say, I don't think the HQ percentages are correct. Or they indicate something else.

I feel like I score HQ when my level beats the level of the item I'm working on a lot more than the % would indicate.

If I'm level 50 and I'm synthing a level 10 item. And I have a 20% HQ I think I'd HQ a lot more than 20%

Has anyone run into this feeling or kept track of anything like this?

Also, When I hit HQ 85% I feel like I score HQ Waaaaay more often than I'd expect. 85% HQ or above feels like 99% success rate too me.

But gut feelings are bad with stats. So I wonder if anyone is doing any testing or happens to know the real math behind HQing an item.
#22 Sep 05 2013 at 9:22 PM Rating: Good
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Whats to figure out? 20% is simply a 1 in 5 chance to hq. It's simple odds.
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#23 Sep 05 2013 at 11:56 PM Rating: Default
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Squander wrote:
I want to say, I don't think the HQ percentages are correct. Or they indicate something else.

I feel like I score HQ when my level beats the level of the item I'm working on a lot more than the % would indicate.

If I'm level 50 and I'm synthing a level 10 item. And I have a 20% HQ I think I'd HQ a lot more than 20%

Has anyone run into this feeling or kept track of anything like this?

Also, When I hit HQ 85% I feel like I score HQ Waaaaay more often than I'd expect. 85% HQ or above feels like 99% success rate too me.

But gut feelings are bad with stats. So I wonder if anyone is doing any testing or happens to know the real math behind HQing an item.


.......what "math"?

It's clear as day when you look at it. You start off with a 1% chance, and as you put in quality it rises on a slope/exponential curve towards 100%. It isn't that hard; it probably rolls a check of 1 - 100 and if you land on your HQ% or lower (i.e. 20, 35, 64, 98) that's your shot at getting a high quality. It's probably the most straightforward mechanic in FFXIV in terms of return: fill up the bar, get a better chance at HQ.

That's all it is to it.
#24 Sep 06 2013 at 8:02 AM Rating: Good
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Still think the bar's a dirty liar. :(
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#25 Sep 06 2013 at 8:20 AM Rating: Default
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Viertel wrote:

.......what "math"?

It's clear as day when you look at it. You start off with a 1% chance, and as you put in quality it rises on a slope/exponential curve towards 100%. It isn't that hard; it probably rolls a check of 1 - 100 and if you land on your HQ% or lower (i.e. 20, 35, 64, 98) that's your shot at getting a high quality. It's probably the most straightforward mechanic in FFXIV in terms of return: fill up the bar, get a better chance at HQ.

That's all it is to it.


Yeah, the whole premise is that the % doesn't seem accurate. If I synth a 20% HQ item and I'm a much higher level than the item, I find I have a higher than 20% chance of HQing that item. I'd need to do 1k items and record to see if this is true or maybe I just ran into a funky streak, but I'm wondering if anyone else has noticed this effect.

Try it yourself with 10 low level items. Get it to between 20-25% and synth it. See if you score HQ more than you should given the HQ%

I think it's highly possible that HQ% is only one variable in the check and that your level and the items level and perhaps the number of steps taken are also factors. This feeling could be way off base, sure. But that's the premise of the question. Has anyone noticed that behavior? Does anyone know for certain how the check for HQ works?

I understand that it seems like it would be a simple percentage from how it's presented on screen, that just hasn't been my experience with synthing so far.

Edited, Sep 6th 2013 10:20am by Squander
#26 Sep 06 2013 at 10:00 AM Rating: Decent
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........what part of random do you not understand.

20% is 20% is 20%. If you land on 20% more, great! You're lucky.

That's ALL there is too it.
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