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Chance of failing Touch increased on 'Good' or 'Excellent'?Follow

#1 Dec 13 2013 at 12:43 PM Rating: Decent
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Check this thread out that I started on Reddit: LINK

The standard response on Reddit to anything having to do with these things is it's just the RNG, and "Random is Random", etc...

But I really feel this may be different...

Anyone who played FFXI will know that SE loves hiding secrets like this into the algorithms for us to figure out (ie: Elemental Wheel and direction playing a role in crafting in FFXI).

If anybody is online today and feels like helping to test this while crafting, please post your results here and in the Reddit thread...

Thanks!
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#2 Dec 13 2013 at 1:27 PM Rating: Excellent
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No. There is no secret increased chance for failure.

Otherwise people with 100% success via Steady Hand(II) would have noticed by now that it wasn't 100%.

Edited, Dec 13th 2013 2:27pm by Ravashack
#3 Dec 13 2013 at 1:34 PM Rating: Decent
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Ravashack wrote:
No. There is no secret increased chance for failure.

Otherwise people with 100% success via Steady Hand(II) would have noticed by now that it wasn't 100%.

Edited, Dec 13th 2013 2:27pm by Ravashack



Good point, but Hasty Touch cannot be made into 100%, so I am still going to test it next time I craft I'm going to start writing down the success/failure rates with SHII to see if it's really 80% like it's supposed to be for SHII + Hasty on a Good / Excellent condition.

Edited, Dec 13th 2013 2:34pm by Hairspray
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#4 Dec 13 2013 at 1:40 PM Rating: Default
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I do think there's an increased chance of Failure on touches for Excellent, but when you do succeed on Excellent there's also a chance it's going to shoot up ten times as much as normal, so there's a trade off.

I haven't noticed an increased chance of failure on Good, but then I abuse the heck out of Tricks of the Trade and nothing ever stays Good long enough to try a touch with it.
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#5 Dec 13 2013 at 2:20 PM Rating: Excellent
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I do think there's an increased chance of Failure on touches for Excellent, but when you do succeed on Excellent there's also a chance it's going to shoot up ten times as much as normal, so there's a trade off.


No, just no...

Excellent is a 4x multiplier that stacks with other multipliers, and works with BB and IQ stacks. So the reason excellent doesnt give the same amount is due to stacks of IQ when using BB or the + quality skill you use. If excellents failed more often, its like they said with goods, people would have noticed with 100% skills that it became possible to fail.
#6 Dec 13 2013 at 2:30 PM Rating: Decent
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Ravashack wrote:
No. There is no secret increased chance for failure.

Otherwise people with 100% success via Steady Hand(II) would have noticed by now that it wasn't 100%.

There have been a few cases where people have said that one time they saw a Steady Handed touch that should have been 100% successful, but failed. But it's not clear if those were all from beta due to some bug, or lag, or just a very, very, very rare outcome.

I get the feeling that the RNG is really streaky more than anything else. Sometimes, I hit every Hasty Touch and get a lot of Good procs for Tricks of the Trade to the point that it's overkill. Sometimes, I fail far too many SH2 Hasty Touches and get only one of zero Good procs to help offset it.
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#7 Dec 13 2013 at 2:35 PM Rating: Excellent
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As a player who only crafts in game, I've noticed the chances of Hasty Touch succeeding have been when I wore my lucky rings, my aldgoat minion present, and when I'm facing South, South-West. Also when it is my birthday in Eorzea, I am able to have 100% success rates with Hasty Touches and meld materia on the 4th and 5th slots on the first try.
#8 Dec 13 2013 at 2:42 PM Rating: Excellent
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Hairspray wrote:

Anyone who played FFXI will know that SE loves hiding secrets like this into the algorithms for us to figure out (ie: Elemental Wheel and direction playing a role in crafting in FFXI).


The elemental wheel wasn't a secret and direction was stated by the devs to have no effect.


svlyons wrote:

There have been a few cases where people have said that one time they saw a Steady Handed touch that should have been 100% successful, but failed. But it's not clear if those were all from beta due to some bug, or lag, or just a very, very, very rare outcome.


And as of yet, I' haven't seen anyone be able to back that claim up with a screenshot. Not to be a jerk, but I'll believe it when I see it.

Quote:

I get the feeling that the RNG is really streaky more than anything else. Sometimes, I hit every Hasty Touch and get a lot of Good procs for Tricks of the Trade to the point that it's overkill. Sometimes, I fail far too many SH2 Hasty Touches and get only one of zero Good procs to help offset it.


I agree with this completely. Not only does it seem streaky, it seems to be more heavily weighted towards the ends of the range.
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#9 Dec 13 2013 at 3:07 PM Rating: Decent
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Catwho wrote:
I do think there's an increased chance of Failure on touches for Excellent, but when you do succeed on Excellent there's also a chance it's going to shoot up ten times as much as normal, so there's a trade off.

I haven't noticed an increased chance of failure on Good, but then I abuse the heck out of Tricks of the Trade and nothing ever stays Good long enough to try a touch with it.


On this subject, then, how is it possible for a synth with 10 durability left to fail with Careful Synthesis? It's happened to me a few times. Smiley: bah
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#10 Dec 13 2013 at 3:19 PM Rating: Good
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Catwho wrote:
Catwho wrote:
I do think there's an increased chance of Failure on touches for Excellent, but when you do succeed on Excellent there's also a chance it's going to shoot up ten times as much as normal, so there's a trade off.

I haven't noticed an increased chance of failure on Good, but then I abuse the heck out of Tricks of the Trade and nothing ever stays Good long enough to try a touch with it.


On this subject, then, how is it possible for a synth with 10 durability left to fail with Careful Synthesis? It's happened to me a few times. Smiley: bah


Presumably it didn't give enough progress to complete the recipe?

#11 Dec 13 2013 at 3:26 PM Rating: Decent
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That was the case when I was still a baby learning how to synth (and a few times now when I'm not paying attention), but when I'm doing-it-right I always careful synth til I'm 1 CS away from completion.

I've had something be at 66/67 complete, pressed quality to 90%, then blow up in my hands on the very final CS. Which I thought was impossible. Noticed it at least twice when I was cranking out HQ apple pies in Quarrymill.
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I can't understand anyone who skips the cutscenes of a Final Fantasy game. That's like going to Texas and not getting barbecue.

FFXIV: Katarh Mest and Taprara Rara on Lamia Server - Member of The Swarm
Curator of the XIV Wallpapers Tumblr and the XIV Fashion Tumblr
#12 Dec 13 2013 at 3:35 PM Rating: Excellent
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Catwho wrote:
That was the case when I was still a baby learning how to synth (and a few times now when I'm not paying attention), but when I'm doing-it-right I always careful synth til I'm 1 CS away from completion.

I've had something be at 66/67 complete, pressed quality to 90%, then blow up in my hands on the very final CS. Which I thought was impossible. Noticed it at least twice when I was cranking out HQ apple pies in Quarrymill.


You sure you didn't hit another hotbar button instead of CS?
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#13 Dec 13 2013 at 3:43 PM Rating: Excellent
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it really is RNG. since it isn't a true "RNG" (and it never will be, you can Google why) you will notice things like this.

anyone who has done gathering jobs will notice an amount of failure higher than what your supposed to be getting. at 100% chance you will never miss, but oh my god the amount of misses ive had with 97% chance to hit the node. I've had a few times where I've missed 4 times in a row with that high a hit chance, and 1 time where I missed it 5 times in a row. statistically the chances of me doing that should be very low, but I miss so often its starting to be noticeable.

unfortunately this is due to hitting the node at the exact time that I would miss. if you knew how it was calculated you could theoretically hit or miss a node whenever you wanted. the same applies to crafting. Since the algorithm uses milliseconds to calculate that, without using a bot doing it manually would be impossible.

anyway long story short, it's just bad luck.
#14 Dec 13 2013 at 3:54 PM Rating: Good
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I agree the RNG seems to be an inverse bell curve. I was watching a buddy do some gathering wi botany once. He had a 3% chance for HQ on the gather and got 3 HQs in a row. That's like a .1% chance of happening.
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#15 Dec 13 2013 at 4:10 PM Rating: Excellent
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Not from what I seen. SE is known for hiding tidbits, yes, but Yoshi says secrets, hidden effects and so on "stresses the playerbase" much like having stats like + enmity or healing potency causes stress. So no worries, it's all random just like hitting Excellent is random.

I have a 99% chance for items in Mining...I miss all 4 swings. I have a 3 HQ chance on skilling up with silver gear, I get 7 HQs in a row compared to a 80% HQ chance. XIV's RNG is just....odd.
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#16 Dec 13 2013 at 4:20 PM Rating: Good
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Bigdaddyjug wrote:
I agree the RNG seems to be an inverse bell curve. I was watching a buddy do some gathering wi botany once. He had a 3% chance for HQ on the gather and got 3 HQs in a row. That's like a .1% chance of happening.


Even smaller chance than .1%.

0.03^3 = 0.000027 = 0.0027%


And yeah, I've seen quite a few scenarios like that myself.
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#17 Dec 13 2013 at 4:25 PM Rating: Excellent
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Catwho wrote:
That was the case when I was still a baby learning how to synth (and a few times now when I'm not paying attention), but when I'm doing-it-right I always careful synth til I'm 1 CS away from completion.

I've had something be at 66/67 complete, pressed quality to 90%, then blow up in my hands on the very final CS. Which I thought was impossible. Noticed it at least twice when I was cranking out HQ apple pies in Quarrymill.


It is impossible, but without a screenshot to back it up, other people can't confirm it happened and can only draw from their own experiences. And in my case, I can't even confirm it because I've never used Careful Synthesis, just Standard, Basic and Careful Synthesis II.
#18 Dec 13 2013 at 5:01 PM Rating: Good
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Pickins wrote:
Catwho wrote:
That was the case when I was still a baby learning how to synth (and a few times now when I'm not paying attention), but when I'm doing-it-right I always careful synth til I'm 1 CS away from completion.

I've had something be at 66/67 complete, pressed quality to 90%, then blow up in my hands on the very final CS. Which I thought was impossible. Noticed it at least twice when I was cranking out HQ apple pies in Quarrymill.


You sure you didn't hit another hotbar button instead of CS?


A few times I did just that. Totally doubted myself, went and rechecked and saw my fingers were one key off on the keyboard. Another time my food had worn off, and with CS I was just shy of failing (but would have been fine with standard synth.) But two distinct times it should have worked. And it didn't.

Nothing more frustrating than expecting a HQ and getting a KABLAM! instead.
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I can't understand anyone who skips the cutscenes of a Final Fantasy game. That's like going to Texas and not getting barbecue.

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#19 Dec 13 2013 at 5:42 PM Rating: Good
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Catwho wrote:
Pickins wrote:
Catwho wrote:
That was the case when I was still a baby learning how to synth (and a few times now when I'm not paying attention), but when I'm doing-it-right I always careful synth til I'm 1 CS away from completion.

I've had something be at 66/67 complete, pressed quality to 90%, then blow up in my hands on the very final CS. Which I thought was impossible. Noticed it at least twice when I was cranking out HQ apple pies in Quarrymill.


You sure you didn't hit another hotbar button instead of CS?


A few times I did just that. Totally doubted myself, went and rechecked and saw my fingers were one key off on the keyboard. Another time my food had worn off, and with CS I was just shy of failing (but would have been fine with standard synth.) But two distinct times it should have worked. And it didn't.

Nothing more frustrating than expecting a HQ and getting a KABLAM! instead.


Odd, never known CS to fail.

I wonder...does this game have the same problem FFXI used to have of someone casting on you causes synths to fail?
#20 Dec 15 2013 at 4:42 PM Rating: Decent
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Nope.
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#21 Dec 16 2013 at 9:18 AM Rating: Excellent
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I get the feeling that the RNG is really streaky more than anything else. Sometimes, I hit every Hasty Touch and get a lot of Good procs for Tricks of the Trade to the point that it's overkill. Sometimes, I fail far too many SH2 Hasty Touches and get only one of zero Good procs to help offset it.


^ This. I've had streaks where Advanced Touch, without Steady Hands, has failed 4 times in a row. Also related, I've had Advanced Touch fail on every Excellent condition repeatedly before. I don't know the probability of that happening as I am not good at the maths but I would think it would be really low. One thing I do is when I notice the RNG being a b!@#$ I get up and run around town for a few minutes. Probably just a placebo but it feels like it helps.
#22 Dec 16 2013 at 9:47 AM Rating: Good
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So i can confirm that with SH2 you can still fail what should be a 100% chance action, it happened a lot at launch and since they have fixed a bunch of the lag / latency let me break down what was happening.

It is similar to titan dodges, where you move out of the way, are half way across the screen, but because the server didn't update, it counts you as getting hit.

When the game first launched my ISP was throtling connection speed, and I couldn't dodge anything. I also noticed while crafting if I hit SH2 -> standard touch (should be 100), it was 100% possible to fail it if i hit ST as soon as i could. Basically the server wouldn't have registered that I had the SH2 buff (even though the icon was on my screen), it would perform the action, then it i would lose a tick of SH2 even though it failed.

Long story short, i switched ISP and have had 0 issues dodging since, and have had 0 issues crafting since, so I am 100% sure it was lag / net code related.
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