I agree with the 70/30 odds. It's kinda pretty looking, but we're really just looking at another biyearly World of Warcraft inspired MMORPG /yawn move along. Sorry, but that's my honest prediction. This game doesn't have anything to pull people in. It doesn't do anything special.
After getting a good feel for the game and what it is, I'm not even really inspired to check up on new information for it anymore. It's just so obvious to me that the game is gonna be a snooze.
As for what will happen when it fails - the obvious. F2P Cash Shop model, a couple updates a year - cheaper than shutdown.
Edited, May 9th 2013 6:25pm by Killua125
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#27REDACTED,
Posted: May 09 2013 at 4:17 PM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post) Why should Yoshida get a promotion if his game fails, and why should he have taken Wada's place?
#29
May 09 2013 at 4:44 PM
Not meaning to be insulting. To anyone but some people just can't take any thing short of praising FFXIV like its the second coming. I think some people are a lil over confident. While yes I do think they have done a good job with ARR and it tuely has the potential to be a great game. The odds are still very much 50/50. MMO gamers don't have short memories. People will remember what FFXIV really was. (A cash grab that square threw out thinking hey it has the FF name on it people will buy it and we can fix it later. Which has been Squares philosophy for a few years now which they evenly openly admit and apologize for now.) In the western market it truly is a gamble if it will do well mmos very rarely get a second chance in this market without going F2P. (Here's looking at you LOTRO and DDO and SWTOR) Japanese players also seem equally skeptical (while hopeful). While I'm hoping for it to do well a lot of it's going to hinge on the word of mouth and positive reviews from media outlets when phase 4 starts. As for what Square will do? They are already in pretty poor shape financially. A lot of their money has gone into ARR. If it doesn't meet financial expectations I reckon Square will put one big last push into ps4's FF and if that fails to impress prolly do what they've already been doing and becoming more a publisher than a developer.
#30
May 09 2013 at 4:52 PM
Valeforelacky wrote:
Not meaning to be insulting. To anyone but some people just can't take any thing short of praising FFXIV like its the second coming. I think some people are a lil over confident. While yes I do think they have done a good job with ARR and it tuely has the potential to be a great game. The odds are still very much 50/50. MMO gamers don't have short memories. People will remember what FFXIV really was. (A cash grab that square threw out thinking hey it has the FF name on it people will buy it and we can fix it later. Which has been Squares philosophy for a few years now which they evenly openly admit and apologize for now.) In the western market it truly is a gamble if it will do well mmos very rarely get a second chance in this market without going F2P. (Here's looking at you LOTRO and DDO and SWTOR) Japanese players also seem equally skeptical (while hopeful). While I'm hoping for it to do well a lot of it's going to hinge on the word of mouth and positive reviews from media outlets when phase 4 starts. As for what Square will do? They are already in pretty poor shape financially. A lot of their money has gone into ARR. If it doesn't meet financial expectations I reckon Square will put one big last push into ps4's FF and if that fails to impress prolly do what they've already been doing and becoming more a publisher than a developer.
Didn't even read because I think that is the absolute worst way to start a post if your goal is to not be insulting.
#31
May 09 2013 at 5:29 PM
I don't understand the question being asked, I really don't. From what I understand the game did fail. Horribly at that, hence why it's being redone.
I view this as more of an expansion, not a 'new' game. Furthermore, we don't know what the expectations from SE are, in regards to ARR, so most can only speculate as to what or how it might fail.
Also, what if ARR succeeds, goes above and beyond expectations, and forces SE to keep staff on ARR to provide content going forward, that could possible slow down development of other IPs due to focus on ARR.
Before there's too much speculation on "what if..", lets at least wait for open beta, or a few reviews, or more from SE in regards to what they would consider success or failure.
I view this as more of an expansion, not a 'new' game. Furthermore, we don't know what the expectations from SE are, in regards to ARR, so most can only speculate as to what or how it might fail.
Also, what if ARR succeeds, goes above and beyond expectations, and forces SE to keep staff on ARR to provide content going forward, that could possible slow down development of other IPs due to focus on ARR.
Before there's too much speculation on "what if..", lets at least wait for open beta, or a few reviews, or more from SE in regards to what they would consider success or failure.
#32
May 09 2013 at 10:05 PM
Loris wrote:
WFOAssassin wrote:
Overall, no lasting effect will come of it
If my math is correct converting yen to dollars, SE did 1.38 BILLION dollars in sales in fiscal 2012. Failure of ARR would be a setback, would kind of hurt and possibly cause some layoffs, but a company that large isn't going away just because an MMO failed. People buy their stuff like crazy, and thats not going to change.
You make my statement look wrong but you repeat it in a different way... No lasting effect = Profit > Bottom line losses > Layoffs > People buy like crazy (turns into profit, hire more people, bottom line goes up) = No lasting effect
#33
May 09 2013 at 11:09 PM
If it fails (which IMO means it will be worse than 1.0) the world will collapse in on itself because I don't see how that would be logically possible.
At worst the game will be fan service and pump out solid yet mediocre content. While retaining a decent fan base.
At best it will draw in players to the series and revitalize the company.
If logic is bent and the game goes f2p within a week and killuea takes the helm then it would be IMO one of the final blows to SE before they seriously rethink (even though I believe they are doing this now) their company's overall strategy.
At worst the game will be fan service and pump out solid yet mediocre content. While retaining a decent fan base.
At best it will draw in players to the series and revitalize the company.
If logic is bent and the game goes f2p within a week and killuea takes the helm then it would be IMO one of the final blows to SE before they seriously rethink (even though I believe they are doing this now) their company's overall strategy.
#34
May 09 2013 at 11:13 PM
Louiscool wrote:
Ostia wrote:
The game has a 70/30 chance of failing as of right now, if it does fail hopefully SE will stop wasting their time on the MMO market and start reconstructing their console RPG catalog, also next time they even consider a MMO, they might think really hard, about all the other IP they own, that they can base an MMO on.
Also is kind of hard to define failure on this title, specially when 1.0 failed and people still where on denial...Even when SE came out and said it was garbage, people still held it as the holy grail of MMO
Also is kind of hard to define failure on this title, specially when 1.0 failed and people still where on denial...Even when SE came out and said it was garbage, people still held it as the holy grail of MMO
I'm not even stepping into this troll, I just want to acknowledge it, so you know that I know that we know. Ya' know?
Having a different opinion than yours = Trolling.... More news at 11.
#35REDACTED,
Posted: May 09 2013 at 11:16 PM, Rating: Sub-Default, (Expand Post) 1-2 Years of content HAHAHAHAHA Gosh! Ain't you a Hopeful one ? Also 100K Subs is a failure any way you slice it.
HAHAHAHAHA Gosh! Ain't you a Hopeful one ? Also 100K Subs is a failure any way you slice it.
#36
May 10 2013 at 1:18 AM
Ostia wrote:
sandpark wrote:
The game kept 30-50k users being rebuilt from the ground up over two years. It is probably safe to say that there is at least 1-2 years worth of content to keep casuals busy. Even if the game was lackluster in awe but still a solid mmorpg in the fundamentals. This game can easily top 100k consistent subscribers, that would be enough to stay afloat. Maybe this game isn't as timesink ridden as FFXI. But I think it does have the fundamentals down and featuring enough quantity of content for new beginners.
The only way this game could fail in the most horrible way is to release buggy, laggy, and over complicated menu processes.
This game is not failing, and no, free to play is not admitting failure. Should that be their last ditch effort. Failing is shutdown or going into the red and never rising back. Total Failure is what happens when you give up.
The only way this game could fail in the most horrible way is to release buggy, laggy, and over complicated menu processes.
This game is not failing, and no, free to play is not admitting failure. Should that be their last ditch effort. Failing is shutdown or going into the red and never rising back. Total Failure is what happens when you give up.
1-2 Years of content
HAHAHAHAHA Gosh! Ain't you a Hopeful one ? Also 100K Subs is a failure any way you slice it. What? Regardless of the initial release, this game has more content than a game that initially released, it has been through a 2 year alpha basically. So that content has been through changes via feedback. Why wouldn't there be at least a year worth of content for a brand new beginner? I mean, just having to level more than one job or class adds more content than your traditional alt mmo.
Argue that the game is easy mode, argue that it's not original, argue that it's a WoW clone, argue that GW2 did dynamic events first, argue that FFXI is better than XIV.
There is an untapped FF market that either FF mmo has failed to tap into. In my opinion, FF in general is not known to be a difficult to conquer game per entry. FFXI took the everquest model and kept a hardcore niche playing ten years, yes it is the most profitable FF to date. But it did not tap into massive FF fanbase. FFXIV to date has done neither.
Which is why when I say FFXIV should consider F2P. I am not saying they should do it because I want F2P. I actually think they should do a hybrid pay model. Something is keeping the complete FF fanbase from taking that dip into the mmo realm. Is it the payment model? Is it excessive timesinks? Is it the difficulty curve? Is it the slowed down pace of story contrast between mmo and single player rpg? Is it the dumbed down graphics typically associated with mmo games? Is it that a single player franchise focuses too much on the mmo and less on establishing it's universe? Is it because of taxing hardware?
Other than the payment model. This game is tackling those scenarios in some fashion or form. This is an mmo, but I think XIV has the best graphics(not saying art style, that's subjective)of any FF to date. This game harkens/resonates to be a traditional(FF1-10) FF more than any FF in the previous eleven years.
If it were up to me. Anything short of matching FFXI in terms of subs would be a failure in a sub based game and I would explore a hybrid model. But it's not up to me and I do not get to decide what is a failure or not since I do not run SE. If the game launched stable and had a healthy fanbase. I would still want to figure out what must be done to draw in more of my offline fanbase.
Your pessimism is somewhat earned since you got burned in 1.0. But if you truly love FF like I think you do. Do not white knight it, but at least offer constructive feedback on what you would like to see here or on the offical forums. Why do you constantly compare this game and state over and over and over how some game is better?
#37
May 10 2013 at 1:46 AM
sandpark wrote:
Ostia wrote:
sandpark wrote:
The game kept 30-50k users being rebuilt from the ground up over two years. It is probably safe to say that there is at least 1-2 years worth of content to keep casuals busy. Even if the game was lackluster in awe but still a solid mmorpg in the fundamentals. This game can easily top 100k consistent subscribers, that would be enough to stay afloat. Maybe this game isn't as timesink ridden as FFXI. But I think it does have the fundamentals down and featuring enough quantity of content for new beginners.
The only way this game could fail in the most horrible way is to release buggy, laggy, and over complicated menu processes.
This game is not failing, and no, free to play is not admitting failure. Should that be their last ditch effort. Failing is shutdown or going into the red and never rising back. Total Failure is what happens when you give up.
The only way this game could fail in the most horrible way is to release buggy, laggy, and over complicated menu processes.
This game is not failing, and no, free to play is not admitting failure. Should that be their last ditch effort. Failing is shutdown or going into the red and never rising back. Total Failure is what happens when you give up.
1-2 Years of content
HAHAHAHAHA Gosh! Ain't you a Hopeful one ? Also 100K Subs is a failure any way you slice it. What? Regardless of the initial release, this game has more content than a game that initially released, it has been through a 2 year alpha basically. So that content has been through changes via feedback. Why wouldn't there be at least a year worth of content for a brand new beginner? I mean, just having to level more than one job or class adds more content than your traditional alt mmo.
Argue that the game is easy mode, argue that it's not original, argue that it's a WoW clone, argue that GW2 did dynamic events first, argue that FFXI is better than XIV.
There is an untapped FF market that either FF mmo has failed to tap into. In my opinion, FF in general is not known to be a difficult to conquer game per entry. FFXI took the everquest model and kept a hardcore niche playing ten years, yes it is the most profitable FF to date. But it did not tap into massive FF fanbase. FFXIV to date has done neither.
Which is why when I say FFXIV should consider F2P. I am not saying they should do it because I want F2P. I actually think they should do a hybrid pay model. Something is keeping the complete FF fanbase from taking that dip into the mmo realm. Is it the payment model? Is it excessive timesinks? Is it the difficulty curve? Is it the slowed down pace of story contrast between mmo and single player rpg? Is it the dumbed down graphics typically associated with mmo games? Is it that a single player franchise focuses too much on the mmo and less on establishing it's universe? Is it because of taxing hardware?
Other than the payment model. This game is tackling those scenarios in some fashion or form. This is an mmo, but I think XIV has the best graphics(not saying art style, that's subjective)of any FF to date. This game harkens/resonates to be a traditional(FF1-10) FF more than any FF in the previous eleven years.
If it were up to me. Anything short of matching FFXI in terms of subs would be a failure in a sub based game and I would explore a hybrid model. But it's not up to me and I do not get to decide what is a failure or not since I do not run SE. If the game launched stable and had a healthy fanbase. I would still want to figure out what must be done to draw in more of my offline fanbase.
Your pessimism is somewhat earned since you got burned in 1.0. But if you truly love FF like I think you do. Do not white knight it, but at least offer constructive feedback on what you would like to see here or on the offical forums. Why do you constantly compare this game and state over and over and over how some game is better?
1.23 had how many primal fights ? 3 ? 2 dungeons and white raven.... So much content... So much more than a freshly released GW2... Or a freshly released rift... Or WoW... Oh wait those games had 100X more content.... Also leveling up another class does has nothing to do with a game having more content, it does has to do with extending content, two different ideas not the same, as for it being easy mode it will be, if you consider wow's leveling easy mode, now will the end game be as hard as Wow's ? Who knows, SE has a track record of horrible boss fight mechanics, so that is to be seen, as for your un-taped FF market, this has been thrown around countless times, XI launched at a time, where SE was still considered to be Squaresoft, which is not the case now, FF was still the best RPG series around, and it was released on PC, PS2, 360... Yet! It only reached 500k.... What makes you think that now, when SE is a joke and a shell of what it once was, and Final Fantasy is a tarnished name, and every new entry is viewed with hesitance, will this "Un-Taped" marked emerge from their caves ? Please show me the facts :)
Also stating that X game is currently better than this game, is not being negative, is being realistic. I know most people around here, hate dealing with facts, and are into this "Faith of yoshi" thing, but facts >>>> Faith.
#38
May 10 2013 at 2:02 AM
No, Ostia. It is a matter of faith at this point. Because of SE's track record, all we can do is hope that things turn out well. In the end, it's down to a matter of personal preference. If I like what the game turns out to be, I'm going to spend money to play it. I don't care how hard you try to push an argument, you're not the one I'm going to choose to sink hours of playtime into if I decide the game suits me. You can knock that all you want. I really don't care. The point is there's little way to tell that any game is better than ARR when it has yet to be released. Once it hits the shelves and you still think it's horrible, I'll agree that you're being realistic because it's how you feel.
#39
May 10 2013 at 2:49 AM
Ostia wrote:
1.23 had how many primal fights ? 3 ? 2 dungeons and white raven.... So much content... So much more than a freshly released GW2... Or a freshly released rift... Or WoW... Oh wait those games had 100X more content.... Also leveling up another class does has nothing to do with a game having more content, it does has to do with extending content, two different ideas not the same, as for it being easy mode it will be, if you consider wow's leveling easy mode, now will the end game be as hard as Wow's ? Who knows, SE has a track record of horrible boss fight mechanics, so that is to be seen, as for your un-taped FF market, this has been thrown around countless times, XI launched at a time, where SE was still considered to be Squaresoft, which is not the case now, FF was still the best RPG series around, and it was released on PC, PS2, 360... Yet! It only reached 500k.... What makes you think that now, when SE is a joke and a shell of what it once was, and Final Fantasy is a tarnished name, and every new entry is viewed with hesitance, will this "Un-Taped" marked emerge from their caves ? Please show me the facts :)
Also stating that X game is currently better than this game, is not being negative, is being realistic. I know most people around here, hate dealing with facts, and are into this "Faith of yoshi" thing, but facts >>>> Faith.
GW2 did not have traditional endgame at launch. I did not play rift, the content remark was about most mmos at launch. WoW? When did I say XIV had more content than WoW? WOW is an mmo with many years under it's belt. It did not have 100 times more content than XIV ARR at launch states. You must be in the bunch that considers the leveling and story progression a hinderance to reaching endgame content. Unless each class and job have the exact same story it's not extending sh%t.
I nor you know for sure. But maybe XI, whether it was released in their prime didn't reach out to that fanbase because it was based around an everquest model, too timesinky, high hardware requirement for pc or the payment model? I do not need to show you the facts. The FF series is still selling 2mil plus, yes even your precious to hate XIII mini series lol. 2 million- 500k= untapped smart ***...
People are still buying FF regardless if we like their latest direction or not. Final Fantasy IX was better than VIII, FFVI was better than VII. WoW was better than Swtor, Swtor was better than Ragnarok Online. I could spout that jargon all day long(in a little boy pouting tone). What does that accomplish? Nothing improves without feedback and ingenuity.
I am not a Yoshi lover. I love, hate, cherish, resent each individual differently at any point in time.Individual perception of a product is not what matters most. It's the larger perception of the masses that will determine the outcome. If the game tanks then you will have that smirk of I told you so. But if it does well even though you think it's a horse's ***. Maybe, just maybe.. You might wonder, Am I wrong?
#40
May 10 2013 at 5:56 AM
So cute electromagnet83 thinks hes being cute by saying he didn't read my post. Cool story bro cause I care less than the size of this period at the end of my sentence. =D
As for people screaming about subscription numbers. Let me educate you. First WoW is a totally unique and rogue situation that I don't think initially Blizzard even expected. And it's not something I think will ever happen again. Even with Blizzards Titan project. Now for those who are saying lol FFXI only had 500k. Let's go back a few years mmmk? Back when the MMO market was still relatively new. There was no WoW yet not even a glimmer on the horizon. All you had was Everquest, Ultima, DAoC, and FFXI. (FFXI being the last one of the bigger name mmos to hit the western market) At that point most people didn't even KNOW what a MMO was. Let alone have a pc powerful enough, let alone a internet connection since back then DSL still wasn't wide spread and cable internet was just starting. Everyone still had dial up and a lotta households didn't even think it was worth getting dial up due to it tying up a phone line. Even AOL the biggest provider out there only boasted a few million customers.
Now take that lesson and think in the terms of what I just pointed out. At that time frame. 500,000 was downright impressive. Only Everquest could those kind of numbers as well. Add in for the longest FFXI only targeted Japan and North America. And didn't until later bring in Europe. Considering the time period they did quite well.
Now lets go back to WoWs subscriber numbers. Any MMO dev will tell you. Hell look at even Bioware. Who claimed before SWTOR came out that even if they just had 500,000 subs. They would be ahead of the game. SWTOR easily had 3x the budget FFXI had. It does not take 10 million hell it does not even take 1 million for a mmo to be considered a success to a company. If anything I'd say it makes Blizzard look bad. With all the subs they have WoW is almost pure profit to them. Yet customers are lucky if they get 3 major patches a year. VS say a smaller MMO like Rift which has a small fraction of their numbers yet still has a budget to push out content like a machine. Case and point. Sub count really means nothing.
As for people screaming about subscription numbers. Let me educate you. First WoW is a totally unique and rogue situation that I don't think initially Blizzard even expected. And it's not something I think will ever happen again. Even with Blizzards Titan project. Now for those who are saying lol FFXI only had 500k. Let's go back a few years mmmk? Back when the MMO market was still relatively new. There was no WoW yet not even a glimmer on the horizon. All you had was Everquest, Ultima, DAoC, and FFXI. (FFXI being the last one of the bigger name mmos to hit the western market) At that point most people didn't even KNOW what a MMO was. Let alone have a pc powerful enough, let alone a internet connection since back then DSL still wasn't wide spread and cable internet was just starting. Everyone still had dial up and a lotta households didn't even think it was worth getting dial up due to it tying up a phone line. Even AOL the biggest provider out there only boasted a few million customers.
Now take that lesson and think in the terms of what I just pointed out. At that time frame. 500,000 was downright impressive. Only Everquest could those kind of numbers as well. Add in for the longest FFXI only targeted Japan and North America. And didn't until later bring in Europe. Considering the time period they did quite well.
Now lets go back to WoWs subscriber numbers. Any MMO dev will tell you. Hell look at even Bioware. Who claimed before SWTOR came out that even if they just had 500,000 subs. They would be ahead of the game. SWTOR easily had 3x the budget FFXI had. It does not take 10 million hell it does not even take 1 million for a mmo to be considered a success to a company. If anything I'd say it makes Blizzard look bad. With all the subs they have WoW is almost pure profit to them. Yet customers are lucky if they get 3 major patches a year. VS say a smaller MMO like Rift which has a small fraction of their numbers yet still has a budget to push out content like a machine. Case and point. Sub count really means nothing.
#41
May 10 2013 at 6:29 AM
Ha, instead of dispute your napkin math and "pulled-out-of-***" numbers, I'm just gonna leave this thread. The easily-predictable derail-flamefest has already started.
Have fun you guys!
Have fun you guys!
[ffxivsig]1183812[/ffxivsig]
#42
May 10 2013 at 8:07 AM
wint should lock this mess... i didnt know i had started a thread that would be of hate nor did i know it had been a thread before cause i didnt back track... however i like seeing positive things on zam forums and this isnt it... sorry guys and gals!
#43
May 10 2013 at 8:17 AM
You made a post asking what if the game does fail. What exactly did you expect? Sunshine and puppy dogs? This thread was built for trolls. And it's the same stupid arguments every time. I agree that this brings nothing positive to the forums, but you really should have known that before posting... live and learn I guess.
#44
May 10 2013 at 8:27 AM
Your right bartel... however i was thinking that maybe i would get good feedback as to the company and not just people talking about the game being better than others at release... to be honest i wasnt asking about the game at all it was geared towards SE more so in the thought of what would happen to them and there franchise if the game did flop which im pretty sure wont happen...
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