Forum Settings
       
1 2 Next »
Reply To Thread

Crafting Success RateFollow

#27 Sep 06 2013 at 5:09 PM Rating: Decent
Scholar
Avatar
****
6,268 posts
I think some of the percentages are dirty @#%^ing liars. I should be buying a lottery ticket on some of the compound odds that happen to me when crafting. Three 30% fails and a 10% fail? Hello 1 in 370 chance... and then it happens twice just a couple synths.

Starting to agree there's a hidden fatigue system or at least some other factor other than the failure rate shown on the skill.

Edited, Sep 6th 2013 4:18pm by Raelix
____________________________
I've seen things you people wouldn't believe. Airships on fire off the shoulder of Bahamut. I watched Scapula Beams glitter in the dark near the Three Mage Gate...

Nilatai wrote:
Vlorsutes wrote:
There's always...not trolling him?

You're new here, aren't you?
#28 Sep 07 2013 at 12:20 AM Rating: Good
**
660 posts
Raelix wrote:
I think some of the percentages are dirty @#%^ing liars. I should be buying a lottery ticket on some of the compound odds that happen to me when crafting. Three 30% fails and a 10% fail? Hello 1 in 370 chance... and then it happens twice just a couple synths.

Starting to agree there's a hidden fatigue system or at least some other factor other than the failure rate shown on the skill.

Edited, Sep 6th 2013 4:18pm by Raelix


I'd really like to see some statistical testing on this. It's funny because I was just talking with my friend about a possible crafting fatigue system at work. We both noticed that as we crafted we started to fail synths more as time went on.

This reminds me of an old Dilbert strip.
http://www.enigmatres.es/wp-content/uploads/2008/05/dilbert-oct_25_0011.jpg
#29 Sep 30 2013 at 9:57 PM Rating: Good
Scholar
**
482 posts
I have gotten Leatherworker up to 36 now, and leveled Weaver, Alchemist, Carpenter and Culnarian to 15 to get their level 15 abilities. I have to say, I still think I have the worst luck ever. Crafting something 10 levels below me and I just can't get it past 17% no matter what I do. It's starting to really annoy me now haha.
____________________________
Kuyo - Hume Male - Pandemonium server (Retired)
75 Monk, 75 Samurai
#30 Sep 30 2013 at 10:29 PM Rating: Good
Guru
Avatar
*****
11,159 posts
Well, my general routine tends to be along the lines of:
Inner Quiet > Steady Hand > Waste Not to start.
If I get a Good proc after Inner Quiet, then I'll use Tricks to get 20 CP back. If not, the routine here might vary depending on what I'm doing.
If it's some fodder synth I could definitely do with 1 Careful Synth, then I'll start pumping out the Basic/Standard Touches. I've been growing more in the habit of using the first tier Touch until a Good or Excellent pops, but if I'm near the end of the synth and sitting on a bunch of CP, then I'll start using the better ones as I can.
Anyway, after the initial combo is spent, if I wound up using a lot of CP, I'll pop Rumination and/or hope for Tricks and pop Rumi hoping for that again, too. Sometimes I'll apply both SH and WN, but usually I just do SH and continue to work on quality unless it's one of those 100+ synths where you're bumping up 15 durability or so at a time.

Rest is honestly just luck.

Overall, though, Waste Not is more CP efficient than Mends. This can be big for those hard synths where you may not even touch quality at all until the last few tries. I haven't pegged just how much CP the IQ/Rumi combo replenishes, but I want to say it's somewhere between 1/2 and 1/3 the CP spent on successful touches. I also feel like it hits a diminishing return after a point, but never sat down to test. Personally curious a craft with max everything might function, as I'm only 50 GSM with everything else at least 20.
____________________________
Violence good. Sexy bad. Yay America.
#31 Oct 01 2013 at 12:44 AM Rating: Good
***
1,948 posts
Comfort Zone -> Inner Quiet -> Steady Hand II -> Rapid Synthesis -> Rapid Synthesis -> Innovation -> Basic Touch -> Basic Touch -> Advanced Touch -> Manipulation -> Steady Hand II -> Comfort Zone -> Innovation -> Hasty Touch -> Hasty Touch/Basic Touch -> Hasty Touch/Basic Touch -> Innovation -> Great Stride -> Byregot's Blessing -> Careful Synthesis II
#32 Oct 01 2013 at 1:07 AM Rating: Decent
Above definetely is not a good practice if you want high HQ rate...
#33 Oct 01 2013 at 1:35 AM Rating: Decent
It's Just a Flesh Wound
******
22,702 posts
Khornette wrote:
Comfort Zone -> Inner Quiet -> Steady Hand II -> Rapid Synthesis -> Rapid Synthesis -> Innovation -> Basic Touch -> Basic Touch -> Advanced Touch -> Manipulation -> Steady Hand II -> Comfort Zone -> Innovation -> Hasty Touch -> Hasty Touch/Basic Touch -> Hasty Touch/Basic Touch -> Innovation -> Great Stride -> Byregot's Blessing -> Careful Synthesis II


Stop using innovation, the boost is only based off your base control not your control after Inner Quiet stacks.

Quote:
Overall, though, Waste Not is more CP efficient than Mends.

In order to maintain this efficiency you need to not get more than 1 good throughout the total of every turn that Waste Not is active. Assuming you're utilizing the goods for tricks of the trade of course. Once you've wasted two turns of Waste Not, it becomes less CP efficient than Master's Mend. And it will never be as efficient as Master's Mend II on things that have enough durability for it.

Edited, Oct 1st 2013 3:44am by Deadgye
____________________________
Dear people I don't like: 凸(●´―`●)凸
#34 Oct 01 2013 at 1:53 AM Rating: Good
***
1,330 posts
Tubrudi wrote:
I have gotten Leatherworker up to 36 now, and leveled Weaver, Alchemist, Carpenter and Culnarian to 15 to get their level 15 abilities. I have to say, I still think I have the worst luck ever. Crafting something 10 levels below me and I just can't get it past 17% no matter what I do. It's starting to really annoy me now haha.


How are you trying to bump up Quality? Have you organized it into a particular method or...? There's two extremes that people tend to go towards -- burning all your CP on stacking buffs for Goods and Excellents or saving the vast majority of your CP for recovering durability.
#35 Oct 01 2013 at 2:16 AM Rating: Good
**
847 posts
I take no credit for this whatsoever (someone on another forum linked to this). The person who wrote it is not a native English speaker, so the grammar is a bit scattershot, but if you want to HQ finished products a LOT more often; look no further:

http://www.reddit.com/r/ffxiv/comments/1mh6um/crafting_guidetheorycrafting_dont_let_crafters/
#36 Oct 01 2013 at 2:20 AM Rating: Good
**
589 posts
OK, here is how I manage crafting, and it's working well for me. First off, you need to do a dry run to work out how many syths you need to complete an item. Once you have that down, you know roughly how many turns you'll need to complete the item.

First thing you do is hit inner quiet, this exponentially increases quality with every successful synth by approx 10 or 11 points.

Next thing you do is hit Steady Hand (or preferably, Steady Hand II). If you are in luck the quality has moved to good and you can regain 20CP with a trick of the trade.

Next you hit Hasty Hand until your Steady Hand has expired (using Tricks of the Trade as an when it procs). Hasty Hand cost 0CP and will have a 70% proc (with SH), or 80% proc (with SHII).

By only spending CP on SH and regaining it as and when you can with TotT you will be able to use Masters Mend, or Masters Mend II more often.

Now, by the time you have about 400 quality left to complete the chances are that your Inner Quiet stack has around a 180-200 quality completion in your last synth so, if possible, hit great strides and hasty hand and, if it procs, will complete the quality (as it will double, so will complete for 400-440 quality).

The chances are you'll only have about 20-30 durability at this point, so hit Renumerate and, if it returns enough CP, use Masters Mend or Waste Not to increase your durability, giving you 4 or 5 turns to finish off the synth, even better if you can stack another SH after that.

If your synth turns excellent then use Standard Synth to proc and this will stack with your inner strength and the CP cost is mitigated by the leap in quality.

I guarantee if you follow this you'll HQ more than you'll NQ, just be prepared for your synthesis rate to slow down.

Always keep an eye on what durability you have left and how much you can recover, there is no point in going for the 100% quality if it only leaves you 20 durability and you need to gamble on a Rapid Synthesis, that is why I encourage you to do a test synth first to confirm how many turns are needed to complete the item.

Edited, Oct 1st 2013 4:48am by SolomonGrundy
#37 Oct 01 2013 at 2:46 AM Rating: Good
***
1,948 posts
Deadgye wrote:
Khornette wrote:
Comfort Zone -> Inner Quiet -> Steady Hand II -> Rapid Synthesis -> Rapid Synthesis -> Innovation -> Basic Touch -> Basic Touch -> Advanced Touch -> Manipulation -> Steady Hand II -> Comfort Zone -> Innovation -> Hasty Touch -> Hasty Touch/Basic Touch -> Hasty Touch/Basic Touch -> Innovation -> Great Stride -> Byregot's Blessing -> Careful Synthesis II


Stop using innovation, the boost is only based off your base control not your control after Inner Quiet stacks.


160-200 extra Control for 3 steps and you tell me not to use it? Hokayz.
#38 Oct 01 2013 at 4:05 AM Rating: Good
**
425 posts
Don't worry about failing when just doing progress based synths. All you need to do is be mindful of how much durability you can burn before you need to ride Careful Synthesis to the finish. Or Steady Hand + Basic.

#39 Oct 01 2013 at 8:38 AM Rating: Good
***
2,214 posts
One thing to remember when thinking about % is that most people equate numbers like 20% to equal 1 out of 5.

In computers, that is not true. It would be nice if it was, but, typically developers program RNGs (Random Number Generators) based on a principal of a non-repeatable non-linear numeric result.

This means that there is no one set of circumstances where you can produce a predictable numeric result from the number.

Where in Mathematics, probability is done through Matrices, you don't typically want to, or need to do that much work in a video game RNG. If a probability Matrix was used, then 20% would be 1 out of 5 with a certain margin of error.

Instead, the RNG *should* generate a number between 1-100 randomly 1% of the time. With each number being likely or possible to come up.

However, anyone who has ever worked on an RNG should know, there are a series of traps that occur, the most common when learning tend to be:
1) Numbers form a notable incrementing amount.
2) A single number will never actually repeat
3) Numbers tend to spike from high to low values, avoiding mid ranges
4) Numbers tend to cluster around a value for large sampling

As a result, many computer based (and SE has shown this very much through the history of their programs) to have a VERY random generator that does not produce numbers that fall within any viable probability chart.

With a standard thought on probability, you would have a probability chart like this for something that has a 20% chance of success
 
Attempt	Chance of Success	based on Success	Based on Fails 
1	20%			59%			80% 
2	20%			18%			97% 
3	20%			2.7%			99.8% 
4	20%			0.1%			100% 

Where with SE's algorithms, what we actually see is more like:
 
Attempt	Chance of Success	based on Success	Based on Fails 
1	20%			20%			20% 
2	20%			20%			20% 
3	20%			20%			20% 
4	20%			20%			20% 


*all numbers a crude, and while, *should be* functionally accurate, may not stand up to a math test (for any math geeks who are looking to prove me wrong) and are based off of a quick run through the Binomial Probability formula (P(x) = nCx * p^x * q^(n-x))...
____________________________
http://na.finalfantasyxiv.com/lodestone/character/729735/
1 2 Next »
Reply To Thread

Colors Smileys Quote OriginalQuote Checked Help

 

Recent Visitors: 236 All times are in CST
Anonymous Guests (236)